Beck Water

And the Chiefs are still 6th in the league for passing yards per game with a 67% completion percentage. Pretty good for Patty throwing to a group that cant run routes or catch a cold, so Cry Me a River.

Rodgers feels verklempt over not having the NY media focus he sees as his due Either that or he mis-spelt "gilt" as "guilt" since he was brought in to be the Golden Boy

Or the competing service - Sports Information Solutions I think? I subscribe to neither, unfortunately. Anyway, it's a very valid point that the number alone doesn't give us info on whether the motion occurred on a run play, a pass play, or some flavor of option play - and to the point of the OP I was responding to, motion may indeed never be pointless but motion can be a "tell" if self-scouting isn't on top of that. I seem to remember that pre-season, the media covering the Bills was all over some creativity Dorsey showed with 2 TE sets, where Kincaid might be split then motion in tight like a run play but they'd still pass, or vice versa. Of course, 2 TE sets have been a bit less of an option the last 4 games and arguably a couple before that with Knox hampered by injury then on IR I don't recall receivers motioning into the backfield as blockers, can you say more about this? Who, what, when? We've tried bringing Gabe Davis in tight as a blocker on run plays, then having him leak out but I think we kind of "went to the well too often" on that. I'm not saying it hasn't happened with a WR to block, just that I hadn't noted it. Gabe, maybe, but has Shakir really come on enough as a blocker to be good there? Maybe give Gilliam or Morris a try if that's what's wanted, they can both run routes and catch enough to present options I've got a total non-sequitor of a technical question though. When I've seen Dawson Knox in what I think is meant by that "sniffer" position (about a yard behind the line, between G and T), his stance is almost flat backed but with his arms pulled back to his belt, so his elbows are sticking out. I assume that's what Boras is coaching him to do, but I haven't noted that from other TE. Is there some advantage to this as a blocker?

I think there's a certain amount of what we might call "retrospective QB'ing" going on. I don't intend to be directing this at you specifically, it just comes to mind with a couple of your comments. If a play involves pre-snap shifts or motion, or motion at the snap, and it works, then everyone is all-in praising it. If a play involves shifts or motion and it signally fails to influence the defense or the defense is all over the play anyway, then it's pointless or worse than useless. I think there's some of that with Dorsey. We hear that he rarely used motion and therefore the offense was predictable. Oh, well, actually he used motion about 50% of the time, which was more than 2021 Daboll 39% - well, OK, but the motion he used was pointless. Sure, self-scouting is always important, but it applies to far more than motion. There can be subtle shifts to how the receivers and OLmen position themselves that can telegraph a play as much as motion or the lack. If I don't mistake, Bruce Smith was an avid film watcher and would comb through film looking for subtle tells to body and hand position that would signal the play. Anyway, it may be that Brady will use motion more purposefully or the right motions and not the wrong motions or whatever. The bottom line will still be, if it works, it's wonderful, if it doesn't, it sucks. Some people seem to think that Brady entirely remodeled the offense or something. I don't think he has. I think the same personnel are pretty much running the same plays. They may be better sequenced, or better disguised. I thought Josh made better decisions, more quickly vs Jets. Postgame, Salah had the interesting comments that the Bills played a patient style of game, that Josh didn't play as much hero ball and was much more decisive. The only turnover was a Hail Mary at the very end of the 1st half. I thought there were still some miscues that could have swung either way, but that swung our way last game. But it was pretty clear in the Denver loss that there was sloppy execution that wasn't getting cleaned up, week after week. I don't think Dorsey was fired as a scapegoat, I think he was fired because the buck for offensive miscues stops on the OCs desk. Maybe there was something in his communication style or the way he ran practices that wasn't getting through to the guys or was having a contrary effect. The question will be, going forward under Brady, is the execution consistently better?

From what I’ve watched of Warner’s videos on Allen, that hasn’t been true for some time. Warner was a pure pocket and timing pattern. He realized over time that Allen could actually consistently make canonically “bad” throws (across his body to the middle of the field) and his ability to create plays with off-schedule throws he (Warner) could not. His point last year (haven’t seen one this year) is that Allen was sometimes bailing on an adequate pocket and creating, when he had a choice within the design of the play available. I think your observation about spacing and timing not being in sync is spot on though, and about Brady introducing some little tweaks that helped passing windows. Interesting observation on Harty because in his presser about the signing, Beane was ‘selling’ Harty as being able to run all the routes. And of course, Allen was extolling Sherfield as working hard and catching on to the offense quickly in the off-season - so it’s a bit disappointing that didn’t translate into the regular season.

So there’s a TBN article by Mark Gaughn (who is usually pretty fact-based) saying that Dorsey ran motion or pre-snap shifts on 50% of the plays as OC in the first 10 games this season. Brady increased it to 62% vs Jets Under Daboll, he claims it was 39% in 2021

So a couple of points here. Hines was originally owned like $3.5M this season. The $940k was a negotiated settlement - the Bills didn’t owe him anything and could theoretically have tried to get his signing bonus returned, while Hines could have filed a grievance for his full salary. We don’t know the terms of the negotiation, but Hines and Beane have both said they want him on the team next season, and the team committing to carrying him next season may have been part of the negotiation. I don’t think people who beef about these two signings are necessarily looking at next season. The Bills were operating under a very tight cap budget this season, we’re told. The thing is, going into the season we had $7.250M cap tied up in Harty and Hines. ***** happens we get it as far as Hines is concerned, but still, that’s like $6M cap that could have gone towards a real difference-making offensive playmaker.

Thanks, I’m just curious. I thought he was a guy who usually put it straight, maybe too straight for the team, so just curious How was your trot?

Someone's got to do a highlight reel for Gilliam set to this: Sorry, had to do it...but it's so perfect for him..."all you do is call me...I'll be anything you need"

I haven't been paying attention, other than to note he doesn't get many snaps with the Colts. What has McKenzie said? That's a big puzzle to me. We signed him because, according to Beane, he was supposed to be an upgrade on McKenzie - similar speed but better, smoother routes and better ability to track the ball downfield. Where's he been?

While you're not wrong that there's more to it than "a guy was open", I'm pretty sure on a short week we weren't running new plays with different players in different roles. The timing of what plays were called when, and using one play to set up another, was different.

A couple notes One is, the Chiefs offense has not been as high-powered as usual this year. Currently #16 for points and #10 for yards. They have somewhat similar woes - a lot of turnovers (tied with Bills for 19), a lot of dropped passes. It's the Chiefs defense that has been keeping them in games. That, and Paddy Mahomes feet - he's actually #4 for QB rush yards, right behind Jackson, Hurts, and Fields. Two is, both teams had 12 drives. 3 turnovers (fumble for the Chiefs as well as INT and and INT by Philly). The Eagles had 7 punts to the Chiefs 6 punts. So it would be pretty much true that the Chiefs D shut down the high-flying Eagles offense pretty well. The difference in the game came down to Chiefs settling for a FG to go with 2 TD where the Eagles had 3 TD

You have an excellent point that it's not just some sheer # of rush attempts, but the timing and effectiveness You may not intend to imply this, but just to be clear, I was not suggesting that the Bills need to run 50% of the time....explicitly, I pointed out that the current top-10 teams are all over the place in how much they pass vs. run

The Bills average 7.1 NY/A (pass yards-sack yards lost)/(pass attempts + sacks). They average 4.4 YPC on rush attempts. So...in theory, passing is a more efficient way to gain yards which is why explosive and high scoring offenses tend to pass a lot. But...well here, let me see if I can pull some data (click to enlarge) These data are sorted by W, then PF. % use (pass attempts + rush attempts) We can see that currently, 2 of the top 10 teams rush more than they pass, Ravens and 49ers, with the Eagles close to and the Browns at 50%. The rest of the teams vary from 55 to 60% passing, with the Bills towards the higher end at 57%. A couple things stand out to me. One is, the 49ers have the highest NY/A passing of these teams, suggesting that opponents defending the run really opens up the pass game for them. Other than that, the run/pass % are all over the map for this year's top teams, suggesting there's not one "secret sauce", it depends on the skill sets of the players. Overall, I agree with you that the Bills should perhaps be "pounding the rock" a bit more...the question is "how much more?" and the answer is not straightforward. Obviously, we want enough of a run threat to prevent opposing Ds from pinning their ears back and attacking, but depending on what opponents do, a short passing game can contribute to the same effect.

Oh, wow. Interesting times for the Steeler fans. Pickett got thrown into the fire last season because "Money Mitch" just looked incompetent. On the other hand, he had Canada as his OC, so....

A valid point, but the most recent was what, 16 years ago? That's a long-lasting aura. I don't disagree, I think up thread I pointed out that the new OC-by-committee may be an improvement, but they're still dealing with the same OL and QB. Still, in the Steelers games I've watched (not that many), I thought that Pickett had chances to get the ball out in rhythm with short passes that would make the OL look better at times - and that he's developed that "happy feet" bailing from a functional pocket young QB get when the OL struggles.

I imagine Josh has mixed feelings. I do think there may have been something amiss, a kind of negative feedback loop between Josh's own self-criticism and Dorsey's possible over-the-top outbursts in response to mistakes (as witnessed in the booth 2022 and implied by comments from Mitch Morse, Gabe Davis, and others). Others like @Simon have raised the point about apparent miscues and mistakes from other players pointing to a lack of attention to detail in offensive coaching. And, Josh has been observably "impatient" - more his early career self - rather than taking what's there. It's possible that's because any coaching to do so was couched in a way Josh found difficult to hear and to process and implement. Josh is a guy who succeeded against a sheet-ton of negative coaching input early in his career, it stands to reason at a certain point he's going to tune negatively packaged feedback out and just return to his basic instincts. Maybe that's what we've been seeing. I'd just like to point out that there's something else going on - Josh's shoulder injury and recovery from it. In 2020, Josh injured his L shoulder Week 4 and his performance dipped the next 4 games. Then 5 games later (note that number) against the Seasnakes, Josh kicked butt and took names in the passing game. Matt Hasselbeck commented about this based on his own experience with this shoulder sprain injury and its recovery timeline. OK, so Josh sprained his R throwing shoulder in Week 6 against the Giants. 5 games later against the Jets (note that number), Josh is noticeably feeling more vigorous and energetic and is observed saying what sounds like "I'm ***** back". Maybe it's the change of OC, but maybe the progression of healing in his shoulder has something to do with it. Just a thought.

You know, I just don't see how people can see that. Sorry. Last season, our offense was #4 in the NFL for both points and yards with Dorsey at the helm. This season, we're currently #4 for points and #2 for yards. Various knowledgeable people, including former NFL QBs and some coaches who hang here and are generous enough to share what they know, have broken down plays this season and shown that there were open options on many pass plays that Josh overlooked, and that our running offense has been effective from the formation utilized (shotgun). It's not to say that there weren't real reasons for Dorsey's firing, that he isn't just a scapegoat and that the Bills offense may potentially run better under Brady. It's possible - I need more than 1 game to see that, especially since we "settled" for 4 FG including with 2 starts in great field position. But I've been a Bills fan since the mid-60s and "historically bad, incompetent" for Dorsey is a tough sell. You can can argue anything, including that the moon is made of green cheese - but De Rules are de rules and the Facts are the Facts and the argument for "historically bad" doesn't pass muster against the actual offensive parameters.

I don't keep up on the stats. For outright winning, could be so - I seem to recall you beating the drum for it pretty heavily some years back. It didn't fit what I was trying to do in looking at QB performance, since it accounts for sacks - which may or may not be under the QB's control. And I believe its creators have played around with the weighting on TDs vs INTs a couple of times? weighting TD more heavily and INT less. But ANY/A ultimately makes the same fundamental point in rebuttal to the post I was responding to - it includes both TDs and INTs (with whatever weighting is being used) - reinforcing the point that any reasonable assessment of QB performance can not just "dismiss the QB's TDs because of the turnovers". They both matter, and if there are "enough" passing TDs (whatever that means) it compensates for "few enough" INTs (whatever that means) - that's my take-home. If you prefer to use ANY/A, Josh is #8 in the league right now. Herbert is #9, Mahomes is #11, Hurts is #12, Lawrence is #15, Burrows is #21.

So people are saying the offensive players were complaining about Canada and it had reached a place where they weren't keeping it 'in house' It's an interesting point that I haven't heard speculation about "behind the scenes" stuff with the Bills....is that in part because McDermott and Beane seem to firmly believe "loose lips sink ships" and seem to do a pretty good job cultivating a culture where players "keep things in house"? But surely there was some...I find it hard to believe that a coach who displayed the emotional control breakdown that Dorsey did up in the booth after the Heat Stroke loss, and that had multiple players talking about "The Holy Spirit comes out of him", didn't have some "in house" stuff going on that came out after some of our close losses.

I mean, like I said, it's not totally fair, since Schaub got that Aaron Rodgers/Pat Mahomes bench-and-learn apprenticeship in Atlanta, while Pickett got thrown into the fire Week 4 of his rookie year. My point was just that a Matt Schaub ceiling is actually a pretty good player. OK, I getcha now. Expressing support, but then dissociating himself. Did McD do anything similar in his pressers close to the Dorsey firing?

I'm sorry, but I just LOL when I read stuff like this. We're watching on television. We see little glimpses of the QB on the sideline and maybe between plays, carefully chosen by the network to create a narrative and drama. And from that you conclude Hurts is the "same guy when losing and when they took the lead" and the Bills all look like their dog just died? Seriously?

Whaddo I know but if you want a heavy set on the Bills right now, bring in a 6th OL Kincaid has stepped up and really improved as a downfield blocker. I don't know what Boras is feeding him, but it's working. But, if you want a traditional heavy set, I don't think either Kincaid or Morris are your guys. Morris is a converted WR who can bock downfield but has struggled to block in-line. I'm not sure Kincaid is ready to "Wally Pipp" Knox. Though, he may be closer than I thought he'd be going into the season....but Kincaid can't block in-line or pass protect, Knox can.

It's not a fair comparison because Schaub spent 3 years on the Atlanta bench before getting a chance to start with Houston. But then he logged several >4000 yd seasons with mid-60s completion % and a couple of pro-bowl appearances back when it meant more. Then of course injuries finished him in his early 30s. Totally under-appreciated QB in his prime, though, IMHO. So far, Pickett hasn't entered the room to look up at Matt Schaub's ceiling.

That was just a total CF of a situation in NE. Miami did something more analogous to what the Steelers are trying in 2021, making TE coach Godsey and RB coach Studesville joint OCs.