Beck Water

I'd like to tag a couple of former players here. I am not a former player of team sports. @Buffalo716 @HoofHearted - I know there are others I'm missing, sorry, speak up. To my understanding, it's a very very slippery and dangerous path for a player to start speaking out against their coach, especially during the season. That's how you can become a "locker room cancer". It's even slipperier and more dangerous if the player speaks out against the coach during the season and the coach is then fired. Think rookie Baker Mayfield speaking out and getting Hue Jackson fired mid-season, then reportedly lobbying for Freddie Kitchens to take over as HC the following year. Think Carson Wentz arguably getting Mike Groh fired as OC then Doug Pederson fired as HC. Even Tom Brady's last year in NE when it was rumored he and Belicheck were on the outs, you didn't hear it publicly. Brady finished the season, voted with his feet in FA, and made his point from afar. McDermott has said that he meets with Allen weekly. That would be the time for Allen to privately and 1:1 express any concerns he may have had. And he may have expressed concerns during those meetings, we don't know and we likely never will. As it should be. But again, to my understanding, players who succeed and sustain success at a high level do so in part because they are willing to accept appropriate boundaries in the locker room and with the coaching relationship. When players stop doing this, it can absolutely go off the rails quickly. And frankly, it really may not have had to do with Dorsey's play designs at all. It may have been a point of behavior - Dorsey had weird dilated pupils in his press conferences - is he using? Or communication - we all saw Dorsey having a total meltdown in the press box, and if his style of discussing Allen's play choices was similar or alternating nice guy/meltdown, after a while people just tune that out. (Don't tell me I have greatness in me 5 minutes after you've been putting me through the shredder) Or it may have been a point that the Jets game was 5 weeks after Josh injured his shoulder vs. the Giants, and reportedly 5 weeks is about the time it takes for that injury to heal (per Hasselbeck and per Josh's experience with a L shoulder sprain in 2020).

You made me laugh out loud. I wish I could like this 1000 times!

That would be kinda stupid to believe we aren’t making the playoffs before this loss, considering that we won last week and if we won this week we’re still one game out of the division lead and are going to play the team that holds that lead again.

This is looking like a simultaneous “did not age well” and “clarvoyance at work”

Watching Ravens Chargers on SNF and so far two very blatant 15 yd penalties on Ravens have been missed

Gah that's what I get to watch here in The Lou Returned to edit: It was a more interesting game than I thought it would be, for 3 Q

I guess my somewhat long-winded point was: what ground-and-pound teams have the Eagles faced? Yes, they have the least rushes against them in the league, but with the exception of the Dolphins (who are not a ground-and-pound team), they've also faced teams that don't run very much or successfully overall.

I think I'm talking about a somewhat different phenomenon. "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" to me is where after a specific game, the fans second guess the play calls, "that was a stupid call in this situation" and even the game plan "why did we get away from the run, it was working". For a specific game. I'm talking about a phenomenon I see where fans retrospectively critique the OC's overall approach, paying no mind to whether what they claim is actually borne out by facts. That's where we get stuff like people claiming that Dorsey will be found to have been the Bills worst OC ever and Brady is just so dramatically different, when they're running the same scheme and even the same plays with the same players in the same roles. Or that Dorsey rarely used motion and Brady used it a dramatically different amount, when it's 50% vs 62% which is higher, but it's not "rare" vs "lots", it's "lots" vs "more" or maybe "different". That doesn't mean that Brady might not be a more effective OC, because in football the "devil is in the details" of preparation and execution and even things like sequence of how plays are called and details of how they're disguised, or what the motion is. We all hope so!

I think this is one of those "let's look under the hood" statistics. The Eagles are #12 in the league, not #1, for yards per attempt. So being #1 in yards per game suggests to me that teams may do OK when they run, but aren't running very much on them. The league average Y/G given up is 111.5. The Eagles just gave up 168 rush yards against the Chiefs, who are #14 for rush yards per game. Many of the teams the Eagles have faced have not had good run games (at this point in the season where they've played 9-10 other teams) - Patriots are #26, Vikes are #27, Bucs are #32, Commanders (played twice) are #24, Rams #21, Jets #28. The good running teams the Eagles have faced are the Cowboys (#12) - held to 73 rush yards - the Dolphins (#2) - held to 45 rush yards. I could be wrong because I haven't watched them that much, but I think the Dolphins are #1 in rushing offense, paradoxically, isn't that they rely on the run that much (they're like #10 for number of attempts), but more they have speed; concern for Hill and Waddle gives them running opportunities and once Mostert or Achane get out in space, they're gone giving the Dolphins a high # Y/A. It's also still a bit skewed by them having a ridiculous 350 rush yards against the Broncos and 222 against the Giants. Or maybe I'm just salty over having to hear whatever announcer it was gush about the perfections of the Dolphins offense. Anyway, obviously games played against the Eagles where they couldn't run is part of what made the other teams lower rush YPG teams, my point is that it's not like the Eagles have been shutting down the Ravens, Browns, and 49ers run games. They've been handling the run against teams like the Jets, Patriots, Bucs and Commanders who don't run very much or very well, or teams like the Vikes and Giants who run a fair bit but aren't very good at it this season. But they also did shut down the Cowboys and Dolphins, to give them their propers. I'm not saying they're paper tigers against the rush, at all, but I think they aren't as dominating as the #1 for Y/G stat suggests - teams get behind and don't run on them so much, I think.

And the Chiefs are still 6th in the league for passing yards per game with a 67% completion percentage. Pretty good for Patty throwing to a group that cant run routes or catch a cold, so Cry Me a River.

Rodgers feels verklempt over not having the NY media focus he sees as his due Either that or he mis-spelt "gilt" as "guilt" since he was brought in to be the Golden Boy

Or the competing service - Sports Information Solutions I think? I subscribe to neither, unfortunately. Anyway, it's a very valid point that the number alone doesn't give us info on whether the motion occurred on a run play, a pass play, or some flavor of option play - and to the point of the OP I was responding to, motion may indeed never be pointless but motion can be a "tell" if self-scouting isn't on top of that. I seem to remember that pre-season, the media covering the Bills was all over some creativity Dorsey showed with 2 TE sets, where Kincaid might be split then motion in tight like a run play but they'd still pass, or vice versa. Of course, 2 TE sets have been a bit less of an option the last 4 games and arguably a couple before that with Knox hampered by injury then on IR I don't recall receivers motioning into the backfield as blockers, can you say more about this? Who, what, when? We've tried bringing Gabe Davis in tight as a blocker on run plays, then having him leak out but I think we kind of "went to the well too often" on that. I'm not saying it hasn't happened with a WR to block, just that I hadn't noted it. Gabe, maybe, but has Shakir really come on enough as a blocker to be good there? Maybe give Gilliam or Morris a try if that's what's wanted, they can both run routes and catch enough to present options I've got a total non-sequitor of a technical question though. When I've seen Dawson Knox in what I think is meant by that "sniffer" position (about a yard behind the line, between G and T), his stance is almost flat backed but with his arms pulled back to his belt, so his elbows are sticking out. I assume that's what Boras is coaching him to do, but I haven't noted that from other TE. Is there some advantage to this as a blocker?

I think there's a certain amount of what we might call "retrospective QB'ing" going on. I don't intend to be directing this at you specifically, it just comes to mind with a couple of your comments. If a play involves pre-snap shifts or motion, or motion at the snap, and it works, then everyone is all-in praising it. If a play involves shifts or motion and it signally fails to influence the defense or the defense is all over the play anyway, then it's pointless or worse than useless. I think there's some of that with Dorsey. We hear that he rarely used motion and therefore the offense was predictable. Oh, well, actually he used motion about 50% of the time, which was more than 2021 Daboll 39% - well, OK, but the motion he used was pointless. Sure, self-scouting is always important, but it applies to far more than motion. There can be subtle shifts to how the receivers and OLmen position themselves that can telegraph a play as much as motion or the lack. If I don't mistake, Bruce Smith was an avid film watcher and would comb through film looking for subtle tells to body and hand position that would signal the play. Anyway, it may be that Brady will use motion more purposefully or the right motions and not the wrong motions or whatever. The bottom line will still be, if it works, it's wonderful, if it doesn't, it sucks. Some people seem to think that Brady entirely remodeled the offense or something. I don't think he has. I think the same personnel are pretty much running the same plays. They may be better sequenced, or better disguised. I thought Josh made better decisions, more quickly vs Jets. Postgame, Salah had the interesting comments that the Bills played a patient style of game, that Josh didn't play as much hero ball and was much more decisive. The only turnover was a Hail Mary at the very end of the 1st half. I thought there were still some miscues that could have swung either way, but that swung our way last game. But it was pretty clear in the Denver loss that there was sloppy execution that wasn't getting cleaned up, week after week. I don't think Dorsey was fired as a scapegoat, I think he was fired because the buck for offensive miscues stops on the OCs desk. Maybe there was something in his communication style or the way he ran practices that wasn't getting through to the guys or was having a contrary effect. The question will be, going forward under Brady, is the execution consistently better?

From what I’ve watched of Warner’s videos on Allen, that hasn’t been true for some time. Warner was a pure pocket and timing pattern. He realized over time that Allen could actually consistently make canonically “bad” throws (across his body to the middle of the field) and his ability to create plays with off-schedule throws he (Warner) could not. His point last year (haven’t seen one this year) is that Allen was sometimes bailing on an adequate pocket and creating, when he had a choice within the design of the play available. I think your observation about spacing and timing not being in sync is spot on though, and about Brady introducing some little tweaks that helped passing windows. Interesting observation on Harty because in his presser about the signing, Beane was ‘selling’ Harty as being able to run all the routes. And of course, Allen was extolling Sherfield as working hard and catching on to the offense quickly in the off-season - so it’s a bit disappointing that didn’t translate into the regular season.

So there’s a TBN article by Mark Gaughn (who is usually pretty fact-based) saying that Dorsey ran motion or pre-snap shifts on 50% of the plays as OC in the first 10 games this season. Brady increased it to 62% vs Jets Under Daboll, he claims it was 39% in 2021

So a couple of points here. Hines was originally owned like $3.5M this season. The $940k was a negotiated settlement - the Bills didn’t owe him anything and could theoretically have tried to get his signing bonus returned, while Hines could have filed a grievance for his full salary. We don’t know the terms of the negotiation, but Hines and Beane have both said they want him on the team next season, and the team committing to carrying him next season may have been part of the negotiation. I don’t think people who beef about these two signings are necessarily looking at next season. The Bills were operating under a very tight cap budget this season, we’re told. The thing is, going into the season we had $7.250M cap tied up in Harty and Hines. ***** happens we get it as far as Hines is concerned, but still, that’s like $6M cap that could have gone towards a real difference-making offensive playmaker.

Thanks, I’m just curious. I thought he was a guy who usually put it straight, maybe too straight for the team, so just curious How was your trot?

Someone's got to do a highlight reel for Gilliam set to this: Sorry, had to do it...but it's so perfect for him..."all you do is call me...I'll be anything you need"

I haven't been paying attention, other than to note he doesn't get many snaps with the Colts. What has McKenzie said? That's a big puzzle to me. We signed him because, according to Beane, he was supposed to be an upgrade on McKenzie - similar speed but better, smoother routes and better ability to track the ball downfield. Where's he been?

While you're not wrong that there's more to it than "a guy was open", I'm pretty sure on a short week we weren't running new plays with different players in different roles. The timing of what plays were called when, and using one play to set up another, was different.

A couple notes One is, the Chiefs offense has not been as high-powered as usual this year. Currently #16 for points and #10 for yards. They have somewhat similar woes - a lot of turnovers (tied with Bills for 19), a lot of dropped passes. It's the Chiefs defense that has been keeping them in games. That, and Paddy Mahomes feet - he's actually #4 for QB rush yards, right behind Jackson, Hurts, and Fields. Two is, both teams had 12 drives. 3 turnovers (fumble for the Chiefs as well as INT and and INT by Philly). The Eagles had 7 punts to the Chiefs 6 punts. So it would be pretty much true that the Chiefs D shut down the high-flying Eagles offense pretty well. The difference in the game came down to Chiefs settling for a FG to go with 2 TD where the Eagles had 3 TD

You have an excellent point that it's not just some sheer # of rush attempts, but the timing and effectiveness You may not intend to imply this, but just to be clear, I was not suggesting that the Bills need to run 50% of the time....explicitly, I pointed out that the current top-10 teams are all over the place in how much they pass vs. run

The Bills average 7.1 NY/A (pass yards-sack yards lost)/(pass attempts + sacks). They average 4.4 YPC on rush attempts. So...in theory, passing is a more efficient way to gain yards which is why explosive and high scoring offenses tend to pass a lot. But...well here, let me see if I can pull some data (click to enlarge) These data are sorted by W, then PF. % use (pass attempts + rush attempts) We can see that currently, 2 of the top 10 teams rush more than they pass, Ravens and 49ers, with the Eagles close to and the Browns at 50%. The rest of the teams vary from 55 to 60% passing, with the Bills towards the higher end at 57%. A couple things stand out to me. One is, the 49ers have the highest NY/A passing of these teams, suggesting that opponents defending the run really opens up the pass game for them. Other than that, the run/pass % are all over the map for this year's top teams, suggesting there's not one "secret sauce", it depends on the skill sets of the players. Overall, I agree with you that the Bills should perhaps be "pounding the rock" a bit more...the question is "how much more?" and the answer is not straightforward. Obviously, we want enough of a run threat to prevent opposing Ds from pinning their ears back and attacking, but depending on what opponents do, a short passing game can contribute to the same effect.

Oh, wow. Interesting times for the Steeler fans. Pickett got thrown into the fire last season because "Money Mitch" just looked incompetent. On the other hand, he had Canada as his OC, so....

A valid point, but the most recent was what, 16 years ago? That's a long-lasting aura. I don't disagree, I think up thread I pointed out that the new OC-by-committee may be an improvement, but they're still dealing with the same OL and QB. Still, in the Steelers games I've watched (not that many), I thought that Pickett had chances to get the ball out in rhythm with short passes that would make the OL look better at times - and that he's developed that "happy feet" bailing from a functional pocket young QB get when the OL struggles.