Beck Water

Memo to Green Bay: cover the TE

Maybe she’s getting bored with Kelce. Or maybe Simone Biles has taken the shine out of her

That’s kind of my gut reaction. I’m sure there’s confirmation bias at work and it’s an emotional, not a logical, reaction. Similar reaction to Pacheco, Good God.

.but.a sweet old fashioned notion. 🎶🎵 But seriously - to paraphrase something a friend used to say about federal regulations….”These are Laws and Legal Proceedings. You‘re expecting logic and common sense to be involved here. That’s your mistake. That’s where you’re going wrong.”

I’m a little depressed watching the Packers. Jordan Love is taking the quick lateral to the RB when he’s in trouble. The Packers receivers are diving and jumping and coming back and reaching for off-target balls and hanging on to them. On the other hand, it would be nice if the Packers could figure out how to cover Kelce a little better. I think ultimately KC wins this. IF they manage to keep enough players on the field, that is.. When the networks won’t replay an injury you know it’s gruesome

Muppy, You know I love ya, but this “logical thought vacant” crack seems like unintentional irony in this context. Google “does being arrested mean you are charged?” And you will literally turn up dozens of hits explaining that the two are different, and being arrested does not necessarily lead to charges. First hit: “In short, arrests and charges are usually, separate. Generally, police arrest for suspicion of a crime, and prosecutors charge. Not all arrests lead to criminal charges or convictions.” Second hit: “An arrest is typically a detention of an individual by police officers with probable cause; it is not considered to be either (i) sufficient for charging the person with a crime”……”Police do not file charges against you. Instead, a prosecutor reviews the evidence and determines what charges should be filed against you. Sometimes, a prosecutor will ask police to investigate more before filing charges. Other times, the evidence the police gathered is enough.” etc etc

You'd think, but I wouldn't bet a red cent that one of the best defense lawyers money can buy couldn't come up with a 'perfectly logical explanation' for that.

I don't think that's right. A judge needs to find that there's "probable cause" to believe that the crime named in the warrant took place, but charges do not need to be filed prior to arrest. Charges can be filed prior to an arrest but don't have to be. Just probable cause that the crime took place and "whodunit". But I could be wrong too, so I'll shut up now and let people who know more about the legal system talk. Edit: this from ProFootballTalk, implies Von has not, in fact, been charged (and remember Florio, the founder and driver of PFT, is a lawyer)

I believe that would fall under the part of my post you deleted in your response: "But, if your basic point is that prosecutors rarely pursue a case without the alleged victim's cooperation, you're right. It's so much harder to win, so especially if it's minor injuries they tend to let it drop." Exactly. See, we agree. Von has more than enough money to send her on a nice vacation out of the country, incognita, so that she "disappears" like the alleged victim in Greg Hardy's case did.

[my example of a case where a guy got off 1st degree murder using a "consensual sexy times gone wrong" defense for tying his wife up with duct tape and setting the garage where she was tied up on fire) Jury verdict. He was tried for 1st degree murder, but in some manner that allowed the jury to find him "not guilty" of the highest charges but guilty of the lesser (this goes way beyond my level of legal understanding). My point here was that even if there's evidence that Von pushed her, pulled her hair out, and choked her, there's always the "this was a consensual BDSM scene gone too far" defense. If a jury bought it for a woman viciously bound with duct tape including across her mouth then found in a burning garage, they'll buy it here from a handsome personable "nice fella" like Von. Miller's salary this season is league minimum. So his game check is $72,000. He would lose a maximum of $360,000 if he's suspended after the bye. (plus playoff $$ if we get there). But the league doesn't usually suspend quickly. Miller will be paid if he's placed on the "Exempt" list, and Bills roster replacement. If he's suspended the minimum 6 games under the league's DV policy, his salary next season is $17.145M or $0.925M per game plus, pro-rated signing and restructure bonuses of $6.37M or $.354M per game. So he would lose $7.67M in salary and bonuses. My expectation is that the DA will not charge Miller with DV, because if the alleged victim is not cooperating, it opens the case to the "consensual sexy times gone awry" defense, so why even bother? So my prediction is Miller will not go on the Exempt list. The league may still suspend him, but that would place the Bills in a tough spot because they can't operate with his cap space until the suspension is made and the inevitable appeals grind through. Which, I believe, historically happens right before the first games get played. Total suckage for Bills and Bills fans, IMO.

Exactly. I believe the league stated at the time that they would not use the Exempt list without criminal charges...when those weren't forthcoming, it was left ot the team. Watson stating that he would not play for the Texans again and the team keeping him inactive, allowed the NFL that luxury. If it had come to a point where the team was OK, dress, you're up and Watson put his pads and his jersey on, would the NFL have decided that 20+ civil cases might be the equivalent of 1 criminal case? We'll never know. Miller had a warrant out for his arrest, turned himself in, and was released on bond. Will the league place him on the Exempt list? For those of us who don't do this for a living, steps in a criminal case are: 1) investigation - enough evidence exists for probable cause that a crime occurred 2) arrest warrant issued by judge. Subject is arrested by LEO or turns themselves in. 3) Subject is charged with crime after a charging document ('indictment', 'complaint', or 'information' depending upon jurisdiction). If the charges are felonies, a grand jury may be involved (this is required for federal charges) 4) arraignment - the initial court hearing where the defendant formally hears the charges, enters a plea, and future court dates are set 5) discovery - each side discloses evidence to the other 6) trial (may be preceded by plea bargaining and preliminary hearings) (It's well known that the best way to get right info on the internet is to post wrong info, so, I'm certain if I've got it wrong, someone will correct me.) 7) Verdict (can go directly from Step 4 to Step 7 if defendent pleads guilty or Step 5 to Step 7 if, after seeing evidence, a plea bargain is agreed) Miller has completed step 2. A judge issued an arrest warrant, he turned himself in, and he was released on bond. If Miller's case proceeds through Step 3 where he's charged with a crime of DV, I believe the league would put him on the Exempt list, because he is high profile and their publicized NFL/NFLPA Domestic Violence Policy would be loudly and widely criticized as a "paper tiger" applying only to the little guy, if they don't. Previously, the NFL has not suspended players until after Step 7 has played out. But, they have suspended players (Bills own Tyrel Dodson; Panthers/Cowboy's Greg Hardy for two examples) where a guilty plea to a misdemeanor (not involving DV) was made, or where the court case was actually dismissed. If they hadn't restructured, I don't believe they would have been able to make a number of the signings that have contributed this season so 🤷‍♂️

There's the 911 call in which she spoke words, and the phone recording in which words were spoken, some in Von's voice. But, if your basic point is that prosecutors rarely pursue a case without the alleged victim's cooperation, you're right. It's so much harder to win, so especially if it's minor injuries they tend to let it drop.

I mean, that’s very admirable. But there’s this thing called commissioner’s exempt list, where Goodell says it’s too controversial to have this guy dressed and out there but we really have no cause to suspend him (yet). Then that’s exactly what happens-he gets paid to sit home

Good questions. So the NFL and NFLPA made a thing about taking a stand against DV. How much is FR and how much ‘blowing snow’, can’t tell ya. But I believe the policy requires the NFL to conduct their own investigation, independent of conviction Upthread I gave two examples

There was a murder case in StL in the late ‘80s. A young woman was found bound with duct tape, asphyxiated in a burning suburban garage. Autopsy showed she asphyxiated before the fire Prosecutors filed 1st degree murder. Her husband was convicted of manslaughter, 5 years. Relative wrist slap. Where am I going with this? Husband’s defense for the duct tape etc was consensual sexy times gone tragically awry. The arson? Failed suicide attempt after the sexy times went awry. The general public reaction was “you gotta be kidding’ me”. Nevertheless. So if the case continues, I would expect all sorts of innovative attempts at “reasonable doubt”. Suspended players do not count against the cap. But the NFL typically waits until an investigation plays out to suspend, then the team has to maintain the salary cap space until the inevitable appeal

And I understand why he didn't, but in terms of "best practices", he absolutely should have done so. https://ndaa.org/wp-content/uploads/NDAA-DV-White-Paper-FINAL-revised-June-23-2020-1.pdf

Very well said. Thank you for putting this in here. This woman has apparently been with Von for 7 years and has other children with him. It may be they don't have a formal legal child support arrangement - her entire income and ability to support herself and the other children may depend upon his good will to keep paying her. Meanwhile Von can afford much better lawyers and accountants and could delay child support hearings for months or years, or fail to pay for months or years with minimal consequences to himself in many cases. It's very common (this is from LEO friends and someone who works with DV shelters) that financial dependence is a huge factor for people with much more typical working-folks incomes. The woman is often a SAHM caring for multiple small children. Partners who are prone to DV are usually high-control in other aspects of the relationship, and asking someone to quit their job and stay home to care for children, "I'll take care of you" financially, is a common way to render someone totally dependent on the high-control partner and thus vulnerable to abuse. Then if there's a DV incident, immediately afterwards the high-control partner expresses remorse, promises change, then starts in with guilt - "sweetums, you know what will happen if you go forward with these charges, I'll lose my job, I won't be able to support you and the kids, how can you do this me? to our babies?". There are published studies of these patterns based on jailhouse visit recordings and interviews. 2023 paper: 53% of DV cases, the victim recants and stops cooperating. Many of these are cases with physical evidence and witnesses, but the prosecutor doesn't usually bring charges if the victim won't cooperate. It's one reason why most LEO hate DV calls with a passion, in many cases it's very clear what's happening but they're volatile situations where anything can happen (including the officers being shot at) and even when it's clear to everyone what's really going on and an arrest is made, they very rarely result in charges and even less often in conviction. So it's personal risk and a lot of paperwork for nothing and a huge source of frustration. Note: I'm not saying that Von Miller is guilty, or that the situation happened as described in the arrest warrant. I'm just saying that the woman recanting and saying it's all a big misunderstanding now, doesn't mean that he isn't, or that it didn't. It's more common than not in these situations.

One point I alluded to earlier is that the NFL's DV policy requires that the league conduct their own investigation, and the player be suspended if they believe DV occurred even if there isn't a criminal case. Greg Hardy (Carolina DE) jury trial for his DV case fell apart and was dismissed when the victim disappeared (allegedly after receiving a large settlement from Hardy). The NFL investigated and suspended him for 10 games anyway (appealed and reduced to 4) Tyrel Dodson DV charge was dropped to misdemeanor disorderly conduct/disruptive behavior - he entered a diversion program and had the charges expunged, but the league investigation suspended him 6 games anyway.

I'm not saying Miller did what is alleged. Clearly the police and prosecutors believe there is evidence, since he's been charged and has turned himself in. Clearly sometimes the police and prosecutors are wrong and if they aren't, it's difficult to prosecute a crime if the victim won't cooperate. So whether a prosecution will result is still unknown. I probably shouldn't go here, but assuming the actions took place as alleged, exactly what reasons or "side" do you believe might justify putting your hands around the neck of/strangling your pregnant partner? Technically, if there is solid evidence (like witness testimony from you and the two custodians), the prosecutor can file charges without the victim's cooperation. How often they do, can't say.

I'm sorry. I hope she was able to get out safely, and I hope you've been able to overcome what are often lasting and traumatic effects on the kids.

Right and there's also evidence (busted laptop she says he stomped on, chunk of hair, bruising on her neck). The majority of DV victims recant (54.8% according to one recent study). There are multiple reasons for this, most of them having nothing to do with a question of whether or not the assault actually happened as the victim's initial testimony describes. One very straightforward reason, if this woman is pregnant and has other children by Von, is financial support.

I could always be proven wrong, but this does not seem anywhere close to the Araiza situation from what has come out to date.

It doesn't sound good https://www.nfl.com/news/bills-lb-von-miller-turns-himself-in-on-felony-domestic-violence-charge Miller has turned himself in after being charged. https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-owners-endorse-new-personal-conduct-policy-0ap3000000441758 As I understand these criteria, Miller should be placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List immediately (which means he will still be paid, but won't count against the Bills Roster). He is facing a mandatory suspension of six games, even if he pleads to a lesser charge, provided the league's own investigation finds grounds to believe domestic violence occurred. And it sounds as though there is evidence - bruising on her neck, busted laptop, chunk of pulled out hair. Reportedly they've been together 7 years and have several kids Putting the hands on the neck and applying pressure (strangulation or attempted strangulation) is considered a huge "red flag" in DV work because it's considered a serious pre-event indicator for homicide.

OK, sure, if your point is that Allen didn't decide to hire him, McDermott did, sure. We agree. Hiring and firing assistant coaches was not and is not Josh's decision. My point was that in your OP post I responded to, you said McDermott decided and ran it by Josh...sure, Josh doesn't (and shouldn't) have hiring and firing power, but I think (based on what Josh said at the time and after) he went to bat for Dorsey quite a bit more than "ran it by him" sounds like, and quite a bit beyond what I would personally do in "referring a friend" for a job and recommending them to the hiring manager.

I believe both Josh and Dorsey have said in the media that Josh lobbied for him as OC. Josh has also said "my career changed when he walked in the building" about Dorsey. So I think (based on what's been put out there, but I ain't gonna dig for it) it was probably a little bit more than "McD chose Dorsey and ran the idea by Josh", though I can't speak for any "mythical heights" of the fanbase. And I think it was pretty clear that McDermott and/or Beane had reservations about that plan, hence the hiring of two assistants with prior OC experience in Mike Shula and Joe Brady at the same time Dorsey was promoted.