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Everything posted by Beck Water
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So to this point: Miami has a coach who is a disciple of Kyle Shanahan. The Cowboys haven't beaten the 49ers since 2020, and this season the 9'ers kicked Dallas in the teeth and took their lunch money. Coaching advantage: Miami, we agree there. And, Dallas may still be missing its NT on D and 2 OL on offense. Would you really call Miami's run offense "really good"? They had a 5 game stretch earlier in the season where they were just running all over teams - the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers. 222 yds, 350 yds - but I think that was against teams that had given up. They gained 142 yds against us and it didn't matter. But they've also had games where they haven't broken double digits -Eagles, 2nd Patriots, Raiders, 2nd Jets. 117 vs KC. A lot of that seems to depend on whether or not they are missing Achane? He played against Denver, Buffalo, and the Giants - the huge games. Got hurt. He's been back for 3 games, but he doesn't look as explosive. He's been on the injury report with different body parts - knee, ribs, now toe. DNP and LP so far this week. Mostert has also been on and off this injury report. This week is "on", with two DNPs. So I'm not sure the Dolphins have a really good run offense right now. They ran for 77 yds against the Jets, and if the Jets had an actual offense, they could have been in trouble. I would say they have an up-and-down run offense that depends on the health of their backs. I could see this game going either way. Dallas could "Cowboy up" and set out to prove that last week was a total fluke. They're a coin-flip road team, but Miami, 77 degrees, and possible light shower is a far cry from Orchard Park, 40 degrees, and raining steadily. Or Mike McDaniel could prove he's Shanahan's disciple and successfully kick (fin-slap?) the Cowboys while they're down. Frankly, I'm not sure he has the healthy horses to do that last, but, we'll see.
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Game thread: TNF New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams
Beck Water replied to chongli's topic in The Stadium Wall
He was on the board when we drafted Justin Shorter. And if anyone tells me they were beating the drum for him prior to the draft, Imma here to tell 'em they fibbing -
They've been keeping 9 DL active, 5 DE and 4 DT. I was thinking under the circs, they might consider rolling with 4 DE. When he's active, Kingsley Jonathan has been mostly a ST guy, gets single digit defensive snaps (and a lot of ST). So if you give DaQuan Jones those snaps and run with 4 DE you can activate both Jones and Ford. Does depend on stuff I don't know, like how well they like Ford on ST vs Jonathan, and that probably neither of us know - like how likely Leonard Floyd is to get through the entire game. And wouldn't the same argument go for Elam? Why put him on the 53 man this week unless we're going to activate him, and if we activate him, whose spot would he take?
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Fair enough. I was thinking they might want to get DaQuan just a few game reps before they try to depend on him. Which means you want Poona on the roster to get 30-40% of the snaps while you ease DaQuan in with 10 or so reps. Cutting ties with Poona means you're depending on DaQuan to be full go all game before you see him take a snap. That's why I thought DaQuan first, bring Elam up later made sense. You've still got a week on Elam.
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Depends upon your definition of modern I guess....tomatoes and squash came to Europe in the 16th century, but didn't really become common in culinary use until 18th century. When squash/pumpkins got to India is apparently a matter of debate, but along with tomatoes 16th century for sure, after which they were enthusiastically incorporated into the food. It's kind of weird really, potatoes were introduced in the same time frame and spread all over Europe because of their yield per acre. But early European colonists in America depended heavily on pumpkins and squash for similar reasons - very productive and easy to grow. Anyway, Europeans and Australians seem to do much more interesting savory things with pumpkin, whereas in America it's been relegated to Thanksgiving pie. Not that there's anything wrong with Thanksgiving pie. My best guess is that the cultural origin of this particular combination is somewhere in India, and that the use of canned pumpkin is possibly a German innovation? But that's a total WAG
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Question: the second call from "someone with security information, information which we had changed before" trying to activate credit card again -do you mean the second caller had your recently changed security information? Sounds as though HSBC itself has been hacked, if so.
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Random talking head says something about the Bills
Beck Water replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
You still can't have it both ways. If the Bills were "soft" and weak on both sides of the line and Allen is an inconsistent QB who makes bone headed plays for whom the play at the end of the 2021 season was a total fluke not to be repeated in 3 years before and since, then it's not an indictment of McDermott to not succeed with that, and calling for his head at that point just makes him a scapegoat. If the lines and the QB were consistently good enough to win, then you can point the finger at McDermott as the problem. Either or, Not Both. Don't come in here now like you've thought McDermott was the Bills only problem for the last 3 years and firing him would be curative for an otherwise Championship roster. -
Josh Allen Admits He Made Christmas Present Mistake
Beck Water replied to Since1981's topic in The Stadium Wall
So what did Josh get the guys? No word yet. -
https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/ Bosa has apparently had his practice window open to return from IR, but has a game status "out". Keenan Allen out as expected. Surprised by DaQuan Jones listed as "questionable" despite limited participation in today's practice. My guess would be today went well for Jones after practicing yesterday, and they think he's very close if not there - so they went ahead and put Phillips on IR to make room for him. 4 games on IR for Phillips. So he isn't eligible to play in the WC round. Per Sal C.
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Why would they activate Elam from IR to take Phillips spot? Wouldn't it make more sense to activate DaQuan Jones, since they went so far as to list him as "questionable"? Slightly related question: Does anyone know the deadlines for practice squad elevation and for declaring inactives, for a Saturday nite game? Thanks. I'm thinking they'll elevate Eli Ankou and possibly Fournette.
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Random talking head says something about the Bills
Beck Water replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
I can empathize with PTSD. I have a good case of BBFS (battered Bills fan syndrome) myself. -
Random talking head says something about the Bills
Beck Water replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'm hedging on my viewpoint of McDermott, which is nothing new. I've said it before, I have my receipts. I acknowledge that sometimes the Bills line play has been soft. That's nothing new - McDermott has commented on lack of physicality in the line play at times. I'm not hedging on you: you are consistently so negative that some do think you're a fan of other teams. Furthermore, you're dunking on McDermott as incapable of winning, while simultaneously trailing a track record of dissing on the Bills players of major position groups and on Josh Allen. Which is it? Either Or, Not Both. If the 2021 Bills were weak on both sides of the lines and have an inconsistent bone-headed playmaker at QB, then it's not McDermott's fault that the Bills got stopped in the division round. Soft teams with inconsistent or boneheaded QB play usually DO get stopped. Ditto if Miami has a much better roster than Buffalo AND McDaniels is a much better coach. How'd they lose to us earlier this season then? You "stand by everything you said" is inconsistent with "I admit I was wrong when I'm wrong". You were wrong about one playoff win then we lose in 2020. We went to the AFCCG that year. You were wrong in predicting a "changing of the guard" with a Miami victory due to their "much better roster" earlier this season. etc. -
Random talking head says something about the Bills
Beck Water replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don't think it's the critical or 'overly critical to a flaw' part, though I applaud the self-awareness to acknowledge that last. Kudos for that, I do respect it. I think it's more the quick trigger on predicting success for the Pats and the Fins and sometimes other teams that has some saying I'm just pointing out how some see it. Clearly I'm not the only one. -
Random talking head says something about the Bills
Beck Water replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
No one is saying that Josh had no rational reason behind why he might have missed the throw. But this sub-thread started when someone tagged McKenzie as at fault for missing that catch. The point was, whatever valid reasons Josh might have for missing that throw, the miss was on Josh. -
Random talking head says something about the Bills
Beck Water replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
Some look at your posting track record and believe you are actually either a NE or a Dolphins fan. -
Random talking head says something about the Bills
Beck Water replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
The thing is, judging from your body of work as a poster here, you would think McDermott can't get it done come playoff time even if he *could* You're the Bulletin Board posting embodiment of a Type II error** You have a 3 year record here of having all sorts of reasons (besides McDermott) why the Bills were going to lose. 2020: "I see one playoff win and then we lose. Is this considered a successful season? " and: "The same logic can be applied to the Rams game and to some extent the New England game. Those were 2 games we should have lost. Refs bad PI call. Horrific fumble by Newton. Perhaps add in the raider game as well." 2021: "What do you expect from a New England based reporter? The Bills weaknesses are on both sides of the lines. They got manhandled on the lines vs Pitt, Tenn, Colts, and Jags. The "soft" label isn't a unfair statement. We will see if the Bills can she'd this label and beat the Pats. " 2022: "Miami has a much better roster than Buffalo. They have weapons galore on offense and a innovation modern day coach. The Bills aren't cruising past them for the division. It will be a dog fight likely to the end. The Bills have proven that can't beat KC or Cincinnati in the playoffs. This year is likely the same outcome. Both teams have tested and proven playoff winners. Mahomes and Burrow are clearly better than Allen come playoff time. Allen is not the Allen of 13 seconds in KC. That year and that game was an outliner. We haven't seen that version of Allen in 3 years and likely never will. We fans have to stop thinking that's the version of Allen we will get! Instead, we will get an inconsistent Allen. One who will make spectacular plays and bone head plays." and: (prior to the Dolphins game):"Bills are chasing the Dolphins early in the season. Could this be the changing of the guard with a Miami win?" and: (October 31) "AFC - Cinci. Burrow is elite. Big time weapons. Experienced team. NFC - Philly. They are just too good. Biggest surprises Bills miss the playoffs. Dolphins play in the AFC championship game." ---------------that's just a 5 minute sample without looking too hard. I know there was "better" stuff to be found.--------------- My points: 1) You can't have it both ways. If the Bills have had 13-3, 11-6, 13-3 records the last 3 years while having an inconsistent bonehead QB (whose 13 second game was an outlier) and while being weak on both sides of the lines and soft, then they must have a damned good coach to compensate. And if all that's true (and there's some truth to it), maybe the problem isn't the coach. 2) After a sufficient number of false negative opinions, it becomes clear that someone's negative views are relatively meaningless. You were predicting doom and gloom and playoff losses or early exits back in 2020 (AFCCG year), way before McDermott had any track record to support "McD can't get it done come playoff time". You may be right; you may be wrong, but you've been wrong enough that it's "eh". I'm not saying the Bills will go deep in the playoffs this year. The injuries run deep on defense, I think we lack enough skill position talent on offense, and I'm not sure about Brady yet. It's also possible that the negative take on McDermott is correct. I'm just saying that based on your track record here, your belief that McDermott can't get it done come playoff time should not be taken as evidence either way. **since I was asked: statistically, a Type II error is a false negative conclusion. -
If the Colts cut them, they can sign with any team or any team's practice squad. The Falcons, Raiders, or Texans could sign them and pick their brains (and probably would). Being suspended is a harsher punishment - not only are they not getting paid their salary and pro-rated signing bonus (which isn't much savings for team, but a significant loss for both players who are near-vet-minimum guys), but they are unable to seek employment elsewhere. I don't know, but I suspect (given the general Ways of the NFL) that there may also be an element of making an example out of guys they can afford to lose. Going thermonuclear on two near-bottom-of-the-roster guys who are fundamentally, special teamers "sends a message" to any more significant contributors who might have been edging the same way (whatever it was) that they better toe the line. I may have missed something, but I think they can still come back for the playoffs if the Colts decide they want to. I think the Colts have a very good shot at the playoffs - Atlanta and the Raiders look very beatable for them, and they already beat Houston, in Houston, earlier this season. For the Jags, they have to play the Bucs in Tampa (who are "feeling themselves" after thumping GB), they ought to beat the Panthers but then the Titans who aren't doing so well but Vrabel would love to play spoiler. It could come down to the final week for all 3 8-6 teams.
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Actually I'll take this a step further. Phillips NOT making huge plays in the backfield has been a sign of improved play *within the Bills scheme*. Phillips weakness as a DT has always been "chasing stats" at the expense of maintaining gap integrity and run defense. When you see a guy like Tre Edmunds giving Phillips an earful on the field after giving up a big run play, you KNOW he ain't doing it right (which I saw at least twice last season). This season, to my admittedly inexpert eye, Phillips has done a much better job at "minding the store" and playing within the scheme. I don't think Miami is a fraud. You'd have to state your case for that to persuade me. But I do agree with the others who say that if the Bills can't beat the Herbert and Keenan Allen and Bosa-less Chargers, even going on the road on a short week while the Chargers have extra rest, we don't deserve playoffs.
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I'm pretty sure that the plan was to run to some extent. As someone pointed out, the Cowboys defense relies on their intense DL and excellent secondary. Their LB are only "OK". I'm not a college football follower, but my understanding is that Parsons in college was originally noted as a "force" as a run-defending off-ball LB who developed into an unstoppable pass-rusher with Dallas. So independent of Parsons sucking wind, I think the Bills looked at the Dallas defense - something like #4 against the pass but #20 in rush YPC - then looked at NT Johnathan Hankins being out for the game - and said "we're gonna have a good try to run on these guys". Weakness: run D Strength: Pass rush and secondary, take-aways. Sounds like a plan!!! I don't think that the Bills intended to run as much as they did, but Brady is apparently willing to be opportunistic and say "we're gonna do this until you prove you can stop it". And I'm pretty sure the Bills quickly honed in on Parson's condition as something they could exploit in their specific choice of plays.
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I doubt you see single-digit snaps out of Poona. Suck or not, he's gonna be out there. It's not just being out DaQuan, it's being out Phillips and also AJE. In the past when they've been down at the DT position they've rolled Rousseau inside on some snaps and put Oliver at 1T. Can't do that while missing AJE and maybe Floyd hampered. So what I think we'll see is some Settle at 3TDT and Ford getting what he got in the previous games he played, which is 25-45%, Linval Joseph getting the 40%-ish he got against Dallas and earlier in the season, and Settle getting 40% split between 1T and 3T. Minor point: Joseph has never played for New England. He was "on the couch" until we signed him mid-season. Last season he played with Philly, but the two previous years he played for the Chargers! So he may have some insight into their defensive scheme etc. especially since Giff Smith was his position coach under Anthony Lynn and stayed when Staley took over.