Beck Water

I should feel sad to see a player like Watt down on the ground in pain but somehow I’m having trouble mustering it

It was my impression too that the Ravens offense is playing as though they want to be somewhere else - anywhere else. I mean c’mon, they’re not starting backups all along the OL 🤮 On the other hand, the Steelers started out very strong running right at Baltimore and now they’re trying to bounce outside and it’s Just Not Working Also, Pittsburgh has how many fumbles - 5 now? Lost 3? So it’s not as though the Steelers are humming and clicking

TF, Huntley losing his helmet and taking a 5 yd penalty to start the 2nd half? WTF kind of bull#### is that?

You're actually doing something you're not supposed to do in statistics - you're grouping together 3 single year datasets, then comparing them to a smaller data set of one year. One dataset has 484 points, one has 152. No bueno without strong justification. You need to look under the hood at the data to be sure that's OK to do, then you probably need to use some special statistical tools to ask "is this difference significant"? Where's one of our stats mavens to set us straight with the technical reasons? @oldmanfan I think? For example, if you look year by year, 2020: 49% 2021: 46% 2022: 55%. This season: 41%. Binning together 3 years hides the variance year to year. And is 41% that different from 46%? Is 165 Now, that said, I think there are some points. Diggs is being used somewhat differently this year, in ways he wasn't used the 3 previous years. I don't recall Diggs being used on screens, or from the backfield, previously (as he has been this year). I think he's been used more from the slot. That folds into the fact that while his catch % is still good, his overall Y/R are down to 11 Y/R from 12 his first 2 years and 13 last year. But it's a long stretch to say the problem is, we're "forcing the ball to him too much" when his targets are actually down from 2020/2021. There actually is a stat, Success %, defined as a reception that gains 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd down. Using that stat, we see that Diggs Success % is down this season (53%), but similar to 2021 (55%) when he was targeted even more. Data from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DiggSt00.htm I think its a good call that something is off with the offense, and off with Diggs, but I'm not sure "forcing the ball to him too much" is it.

I'm not sure about "over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs". I'm saying that because I did a quick thumb-through of some other top teams, and it seems as though a *****-ton of targets to the top WR is a not uncommon pattern for top offenses. Dallas, for example, targetted CeeDee Lamb 168 times; their 2nd target their TE with 98. Detroit, Amon Ra St Brown 154 times, Sam Laporta second with 113. Note that in both those offenses, the #2 target is a TE, in the Detroit case a rookie TE. Eagles AJ Brown 157 to Davonta Smith with 112. On the Lambs, Puka Nacua just took over 154 to Kupp 94. Other teams of course are more equitable with a #1 and #2 receiver. San Francisco, Miami, Packers, etc. The point is it's a perfectly reasonable offensive strategy to target your best player and 152 targets for Diggs as the #1 is not necessarily out of line around the league. Nor is it out of line to have the 2nd most targeted guy be the TE. What's a bit unusual is how relatively few yards Diggs has for that number of targets (Kincaid too). When I think of the Bills 2022 and 2023 offense, the word that comes to mind is "disjointed". It just didn't flow. It didn't work together right. The various pieces (Diggs, Kincaid, Cook, Davis, even Harty) just didn't seem as though they were being used to their best advantage. Ex-NFL QB who do film breakdown have dropped some breadcrumbs, of which my bottom line summation is, it's more than one cause.

There are about 4 guys on this board (2 of whom don't post much any more) who really have a deep understanding of the X's and O's of football, and interestingly both who are still posting at times have more of a defensive background (which means they very well understand where the QB ought to attack on a given coverage). So it's not quite "none", but it's close. But yeah, the fascination of football to me is the intricacy of the game, and the more I learn, the more I realize how little I know and how much there is to know.

Bengals spent $64M, $31M guaranteed, on Orlando Brown Jr. That's a pretty big spend. $21M on Germaine Pratt? Now I grant you their cap hits last year were pretty small potatoes, and I haven't looked at the contract details. But seems like they do spend at times.

I sit corrected. Point stands that two of the Bengals 3 star WR are gonna hit FA this year along with their OT Jonah Williams and key defender DJ Reader. We'll see how they handle that. I think the point is, some of us look at that graph and it pops out that it can't be a graph of what one might think, the separation of all the receivers on the field a specific play. I'm not sure exactly what that metric is, or how it's being calculated, but OP's interpretation "Bills WR are not getting open" probably isn't what it shows.

Wat? Dude, I think you need to look around the league at time lost from injury in LB who play Milano's position.

I don't know what your medical background is (I am not in the medical profession) but that's baloney. I've had a broken lower extremity bone, have you? Just having my ankle casted and non-weight-bearing for 4 weeks, I was shocked by the muscle wasting when I got a walking cast for the next 4 weeks. Milano said he couldn't bear weight on his leg - at all - for 8 weeks. If you read Trimble's blurb he has videos about the injury and the surgery and pictures that make it pretty clear why this is true. The tibeal plateau is the attachment point for all of the knee ligaments, and normal knee motion (let alone the kind of vigorous motion Milano puts on his knee) would possibly stress the healing of the fragments together. So basically, with non-weight-bearing for 8 weeks, once that's through the "fun begins" of rebuilding muscle strength. Now I know Milano has the best rehab facilities and they can hopefully maintain some muscle mass by various means, but the bottom line mechanics are that contracting muscles will put stress on the healing tibial plateau fragments so significant loss of strength seems inevitable. The fact that Milano was jumping up and down a bit on the sideline does not mean he can go play football like the "Guido Torpedo" he is. I could jump up and down on the sideline a bit! Trimble himself says

I don't know but will this one do? 🤯 That - and also, Don't Play Cards for $

Nice Brit-style understatement. As I pointed out elsewhere, part of the problem with the Bills investment on offense hasn't been that they didn't make one, it's that it hasn't worked out - or it aged out and wasn't adequately replaced. -The Bills drafted Zay Jones in the 2nd the year before they drafted Allen. The Bengals drafted Tee Higgings in the 2nd the year they drafted Burrow. -The Bills signed Beasley and Brown Allen's 2nd year - Beasley was a fantastic add in the slot for 3 years. The Bengals already had Tyler Boyd on the roster. -The Bills used a 1st round pick to trade for Diggs after Allen's 2nd year. The Bengals drafted Chase in Burrow's 2nd year. It's not that the Bills haven't made any investment on O, it's that some of the investments they made either didn't work out here for whatever reason (Jones, Moss, Ford) OR aged out and weren't adequately replaced. The Bengals havent' extended Higgins so he'll be a FA. Boyd is 29 and will be a FA. They need to make a decision on Chase's 5th year this off-season. It remains to be seen how the Bengals will handle this aging out/FA loss replacement. edit: was pointed out Higgens has no 5th year option as a 2nd round pick, Thanks @Straight Hucklebuck

The Bengals 1, 2, and 3rd round picks this year were all on defense. Exact same thing last year. When we look at the Bengal's Salary Cap, Burrow is the top hit of course, followed by Reader and Hendrickson on D; their top salary cap hits are about evenly split between O and D. It's true that their biggest FA splash was at LT, but their other two "splashes" were at LB and Safety. They didn't just let their two safeties walk, they let Hayden Hurst (TE) go and replaced him with a vet minimum UDFA type. Look, there are some specific arguments one can make about the Bills roster build - including that they under-invested on OL and at WR until this past season, while Cincy drafted a WR in round 2 the year they drafted Burrow and doubled down with another in Rd 1 next season. But the full picture of how the Bengals are handling their roster is far more nuanced than the picture you paint. They are NOT just making decisions based on "what was best for their offense", or they would have picked up Higgins 5th year option instead of having him head for FA. They had to make big splash investments in OT because their '21 2nd round pick busted. And the Bengals needed to "work tirelessly" to shore up their OL, because it was so bad Burrow was leading the league in Sacks per Game his first 2 seasons, and is still way up there. The Bengals, like other teams, are trying to build a team where they balance offense and defense. It shows in how they're spending their cap. It shows in making hard decisions like not to extend Higgins, to let Hurst walk after a year, and this year Boyd is headed for FA. It shows in how they're using their 1st-3rd draft picks the last two seasons, despite knowing their Superstar WRs Chase and Higgins are going to need to be paid soon. Frankly, the problem the Bills have had on O hasn't so much been under-investment, as that their investments on O haven't worked out here - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, Zack Moss, even Spencer Brown. And it's not that these guys totally can't play, since Jones looked like a real #2 for Jax last season and helped them to playoffs last year and this. Cody Ford is playing OG for that "makes decisions based on what is best for their offense and surround their QB with the Best Possible Talent on O" team you extol. And Zack Moss is tearing it up for the Colts, who are currently leading the AFC South. Spencer Brown is looking like a good RB OT, still shaky in pass pro. TL;DR Come On Man. The picture is way more nuanced than you write. The Bengals have made decisions on contracts and draft picks that balance offense and defense, just like we have. You can make an argument that the Bills have under-invested in receiver and OL until recently, but a detailed look just doesn't support your contentions about the Bengals making decisions based on what was best for their offense or "working tirelessly to surround him with the best possible talent on O". Edit to correct that as 2nd round pick Higgens has no 5th round option thanks to @Straight Hucklebuck for pointing that out. And to LOL at ScottLaw X'ing disagreement on a post that is largely factual. Which part you disagree with bro? The fact that the Bengals used Rd 1-3 on D last 2 years? That their top cap hits are evenly split between O and D? That they let Hurst walk and replaced him with a vet min guy? Or maybe you think Zay Jones and Cody Ford actually did work out here? 😅

This is why I tell people - I can not watch the televised film and tell whether it's true that "no one is getting open" during a game. I know some people here can - they know enough ball that they can make an educated guess as to what all the routes look like and what coverage it is, just based on the glimpses on network - but I suspect that most of those who opine 'no receivers are open' are typically more like me, because when I do watch All 22 I see open receivers. And when a receiver is open - it takes careful observation to tell, was he open at the right time, when Josh needed to make a decision to throw? Then there's the question of the design of the play, what order are the reads.

I Hear Ya, Bro! Never thought I'd be fervently rooting for the Poe-Birds!

Pretty sure that's fake.

It's from this year. Greg Tompsett explained that guitar-shaped hotel just opened in 2019

I'm not sure these data show what you think they show. Do you honestly believe the NY Giants WR have the 2nd best separation in the league, just a hair behind Baltimore? Come On Now....

That security guard looks ready to go to the mat with your son

That first is actually a very interesting question. Hill has always been a ridiculous Y/R guy - 14 last year, 15 this year. But a lot of that has always been YAC. Average over his career is 1/3 of his yards are YAC, but this season it's flirting with 40%. He's thriving in a passing game that runs on quick decisions where to go with the ball, leaving him a lot of room for YAC. So part of his success (and Waddle's, for that matter, that guy rocks 40% YAC last 2 years as well, 42% this season) is the QB's willingness to pull the trigger quickly on relatively short passes - "on time and on target". One of the principal reasons the Bills offense is severely lacking in YAC is that whether by design or by inclination or both, Josh will look and look for the deep shot or the pass beyond the sticks. By the time he takes the checkdown, if he does, the defense has closed in. Now = Josh learned to pull the trigger to Beasley, so maybe he could learn to get as much out of those guys, but...I don't think it's by any means a sure bet. If McDaniel had Diggs and Gabe Davis only, for sure he'd be limping, but is it beyond the realm of possibility he might have been able to use Cook, Harty, Kincaid, and Knox in a more effective way?

Does it have implications for us if one or the other of them win?

Just hang on to the ball, Boys. That's really what burned us and made last year's playoff game difficult. We proved against the Chargers we can lose the turnover battle 3-0 and still win the game. We proved against Miami last playoffs we can commit 3 turnovers and still win the game. But sooner or later that act gets the hook. I ain't scared, though I don't predict a cake walk. But I have no problem with you predicting that. You aren't scattering receipts about the board dissing off our QB and OC then turning-coat for the "cake".

Is this like some weird-ass attempt at "the power of positive thinking"? Or are you just bipolar? In other posts, you've been going on about how you don't buy that Josh is injured (despite appearing on the injury report every week from Week 7 to 16 and various expert injury analysts like Trimble assessing it weeks ago) because "every year is the same injury, it's just an excuse" and he's really just inconsistant: "He’s not the best decision maker. It’s capping his potential. He’s not hurt. He’s just not cerebral". Then we have your take that "our offense is basic and vanilla" "He’s not consistent nor innovative" "Find an upgrade during off-season." So now we're going into Miami to play the league's #1 offense on points and yards, #2 for NY/A and #1 for rush Y/A, an offense McDermott described as "almost revolutionary". Miami also has the #5 defense against the rush and their passing defense isn't a weakness - they get passed on a lot because they've had the lead in a lot of games. Since according to you Josh isn't really injured (just an excuse), not cerebral, inconsistent; our offense is basic and vanilla and our OC not innovative, it's totally puzzling why you think this is a cake-walk now. I'm not dissing the Bills, but even with some guys dinged up, the Dolphins are a divisional opponent, they know us very well, they're a well-coached, well-prepared team (though I hate to say it), and they still have a ton of talent with Tua, Hill, and Achane. I expect a dog fight.

Thought question: if Hill and Waddle were on the Bills and Ken Dorsey were the coordinator....or Rico Dennison...would they be as effective? McDermott said before our earlier meeting that what they're doing on offense is almost revolutionary. I don't think he said that lightly. Yes, a lot of Miami's success is having top talent at WR and RB, but don't overlook the fact that they're using that talent effectively. We always talk about McDaniel, but Frank Smith made his way onto a list of top OC from the NFLPA. So maybe Frank Smith is the genius.

Well, that shocks me actually.