Beck Water

That security guard looks ready to go to the mat with your son

That first is actually a very interesting question. Hill has always been a ridiculous Y/R guy - 14 last year, 15 this year. But a lot of that has always been YAC. Average over his career is 1/3 of his yards are YAC, but this season it's flirting with 40%. He's thriving in a passing game that runs on quick decisions where to go with the ball, leaving him a lot of room for YAC. So part of his success (and Waddle's, for that matter, that guy rocks 40% YAC last 2 years as well, 42% this season) is the QB's willingness to pull the trigger quickly on relatively short passes - "on time and on target". One of the principal reasons the Bills offense is severely lacking in YAC is that whether by design or by inclination or both, Josh will look and look for the deep shot or the pass beyond the sticks. By the time he takes the checkdown, if he does, the defense has closed in. Now = Josh learned to pull the trigger to Beasley, so maybe he could learn to get as much out of those guys, but...I don't think it's by any means a sure bet. If McDaniel had Diggs and Gabe Davis only, for sure he'd be limping, but is it beyond the realm of possibility he might have been able to use Cook, Harty, Kincaid, and Knox in a more effective way?

Does it have implications for us if one or the other of them win?

Just hang on to the ball, Boys. That's really what burned us and made last year's playoff game difficult. We proved against the Chargers we can lose the turnover battle 3-0 and still win the game. We proved against Miami last playoffs we can commit 3 turnovers and still win the game. But sooner or later that act gets the hook. I ain't scared, though I don't predict a cake walk. But I have no problem with you predicting that. You aren't scattering receipts about the board dissing off our QB and OC then turning-coat for the "cake".

Is this like some weird-ass attempt at "the power of positive thinking"? Or are you just bipolar? In other posts, you've been going on about how you don't buy that Josh is injured (despite appearing on the injury report every week from Week 7 to 16 and various expert injury analysts like Trimble assessing it weeks ago) because "every year is the same injury, it's just an excuse" and he's really just inconsistant: "He’s not the best decision maker. It’s capping his potential. He’s not hurt. He’s just not cerebral". Then we have your take that "our offense is basic and vanilla" "He’s not consistent nor innovative" "Find an upgrade during off-season." So now we're going into Miami to play the league's #1 offense on points and yards, #2 for NY/A and #1 for rush Y/A, an offense McDermott described as "almost revolutionary". Miami also has the #5 defense against the rush and their passing defense isn't a weakness - they get passed on a lot because they've had the lead in a lot of games. Since according to you Josh isn't really injured (just an excuse), not cerebral, inconsistent; our offense is basic and vanilla and our OC not innovative, it's totally puzzling why you think this is a cake-walk now. I'm not dissing the Bills, but even with some guys dinged up, the Dolphins are a divisional opponent, they know us very well, they're a well-coached, well-prepared team (though I hate to say it), and they still have a ton of talent with Tua, Hill, and Achane. I expect a dog fight.

Thought question: if Hill and Waddle were on the Bills and Ken Dorsey were the coordinator....or Rico Dennison...would they be as effective? McDermott said before our earlier meeting that what they're doing on offense is almost revolutionary. I don't think he said that lightly. Yes, a lot of Miami's success is having top talent at WR and RB, but don't overlook the fact that they're using that talent effectively. We always talk about McDaniel, but Frank Smith made his way onto a list of top OC from the NFLPA. So maybe Frank Smith is the genius.

Well, that shocks me actually.

Now I’m confused, Who said this in the Cover1 slack channel? And did you mean “later than the playoffs” or “later in the playoffs”? If Milano had 8 weeks of non-weight bearing, starting say 48 hrs after the injury (10-10) - it may have been a bit later, sometimes they wait for inflammation to subside before doing surgery - 8 weeks would be early December, like Dec 5th.

From the TBN article Trimble quotes: A key point here for all the "it'll heal in 8 weeks, why isn't he back?" folks, Milano confirms that he was prohibited to put any weight at all on the leg for 8 weeks, to avoid putting stress on the Tibial plateau. As often, Bangedup's article linked above gives a good explanation of what this is, why it's tricky, and why a prolonged period of no weight bearing is needed.

You kind of allude to this in your third sentence, but create some possible confusion with your second. To be perfectly clear, we did NOT sign two "all-pro safeties". If I remember correctly, GB wasn't too sure how to use Hyde; I believe they started his last year there having him return punts some and playing him at nickel, and only moved him to safety due to injury a couple games in. Poyer was starting at Safety for the Browns, but after he went on IR with a lacerated kidney partway through the season, they kicked him to the curb. You're very correct that they developed as they did under McDermott I think you know this, but the comment about "luxury of being able to sign two all-pro safeties as we did when McD was first up and coming" makes it sound as though that's what we did, and it's not.

Would you be so kind as to explain what exactly goes into that RYOE metric from PFF? How exactly is it calculated?

Now THAT'S what we all wanna see! If the Bills don't try to give the game away with turnovers, We Got This....EXCEPT for the Course Hazard (the referees). That's the wild card that makes me nervous

LOL

Which finger is Breske working on? 4th maybe? The elbow and shoulder massage is evidently standard these days.

It's not an answer to your question, but I'll pop in here to say this: I do sincerely hope this team conducts a careful, thorough, and meaningful search for an OC this off-season. I questioned whether Baltimore was cray-cray to get rid of Roman when he'd basically been their OC through 3 playoff appearances and OC'd Jackson to a league MVP. But watching them this season, they were absolutely correct to move on (as well as to make every effort to upgrade their WR corps) Their offense looks so much smoother and easier this season.

Shady McCoy has Entered the Chat Eli Apple is a POS. I hope whoever he covers can burn his ass. LOL.

Simon, I Did Not Need that visual. The pony is on its way back to you, along with everything it's produced since Thanksgiving. You're welcome.

I don't have enough interest in him to drum up some good hatred...but his voice reminds me of a cheese grater shredding a chalkboard. And while intellectually, I know that he understands the game and that he or his crew do legit background research, either he or the network "narrative creator" goes progressively more and more "off the walls" with his takes during the game.

Not confirmed as true. Never that I saw, and I was lookin'. Receipts, please. It was always "my friend knows someone who knows someone who...." kind of stuff and usually with some discrepencies (ie Hamburg police but Josh house is in West Seneca I believe....neighbors called police but I believe Josh moved there and had the house built to provide privacy and distance from neighbors...insurance claim was huge, but what kind of insurance covers deliberate damage caused by a resident of the home? That kind of thing. I'm not saying that something didn't happen, but it was all REO Speedwagon "Take It On the Run" stuff as far as confirmation. Funny, but ..."No."

I dunno about Josh Allen, but Big Ed got jobbed. But then there's this: Ed Oliver could make it 3 for 3. Indeed. It's become the "I've heard of him" bowl

Good Morning! Bumping this thread in the hope of getting one of our X's and O's guys to talk about this. (Happy New Year @HoofHearted!) I have questions but it will take me a while and some examples to get to them. In Jim Kubiak's usual column assessing QB play in TBN, he talks about the challenge posed by the Patriots "overload approach" on defense Since it's paywalled and I don't know what the state of TBN's trial subscription may be: Two examples of this he discusses are "phantom rushers" on the edge, forcing the OTs to slide out to account for them, but actually they didn't rush and maintained 6 men in coverage while isolating Morse and the guards against 4 'bull rushers'. In one screenshot example he gives, Allen had several options open short, but was overlooking them to look downfield [credit to Kubiak for the screenshot. This is the play that resulted in a fumble as Allen attempted to escape and improvise] He also talks about the Patriots overloading a section of the offensive line, which if I'm not mistaken is a strategy the Bengals used very successfully against us in the Division round last season, again this season, and possibly also used by Jacksonville? [credit to Kubiak for the screenshot] My X's and O's questions are: 1) particularly in the case of the overload blitz where the D creates pressure with 4 or even 3 rushers while maintaining coverage by overloading only one side of the line, are there any OL protection calls which would allow the offense to better handle this? It seems to be a strategy that has been successful against the Bills offense for some time and since it's a "copy cat league", well.... 2) ditto in the case of the 'phantom edge rusher'? 3) In a section I didn't quote, Kubiak says it looked as though the Pats were in Man coverage, but they were actually in a form of "Match" coverage. What is "Match" coverage and how does it differ from Man? Thanks!

My Twitter strategy FWIW. I do not have the app or an account per se. I do use a google account to sign in. I have a list of about 15 Bills media members and content creators I like to view. I do follow them, but for some reason that doesn't seem to do me any good (maybe the app would be better). I search for them, view their stuff, sometimes click on it so I can copy the actual link to that post and get it to embedd properly when I share it here, and leave.

A little bit of the Devil's Advocate here. While Brady was, in his prime, unquestionably an Elite of Elites as a QB, was Brady really elite in that Superbowl he won? -in the NFCCG, he threw 3 interceptions. -his completion % in the playoffs were 55, 55, 56 and 72% in the Superbowl -threw for less than 200 net yards in the Superbowl The real hero of that SB IMHO was Tampa Bay's defense, which picked Mahomes twice, forced a fumble (they didn't recover), held tight coverage, and harried, harrassed, and bothered Mahomes all day long. The QB we saw for Tampa wasn't quite "the ghost of Tom Brady" but you could see his ghost from there. Similar with Stafford. Stafford had a 12 year career on a bad team where he was often way up the leaderboard for passing yards, but was regarded as a great passer who would make key gaffs at bad times. He didn't have a history of probowls or NFL MVPs. 1 PB I think. And indeed, in his Superbowl year with the Rams, he led the league with 17 interceptions. In the Superbowl, he threw 2 INTs and had kind of a "meh" passer rating of 89.9. Burrow was 100.9. The Rams defense sacked Burrow 7 times and hit him 11 times, such that even though Burrow had statistically a much better day and Higgins and Chase both "went off", they couldn't sustain enough drives. I kind of see that Rams win as in part overcoming Stafford's gaffs instead of led by elite QB play from Stafford. Just my opinion.

If you're including QB with one ring: don't overlook Aaron Rodgers. In his most recent conference championship with Green Bay, Tom Brady threw 3 picks. Rodgers outperformed him in every way: more passing yards, same # of TD, fewer turnovers, more first downs, more TOP. But his team scored fewer points. Rodgers had 5 conference championship appearances in his 18 year GB career, and only one Superbowl appearance (a win). And yet he had 10 probowl nominations (including back when they meant something) and 4 league MVP awards. Then there's Payton Manning. 13 years in Indy, 3 conference championships, 2 Superbowl appearances, 1 ring won 9 years in.

We like to play a family game called "extreme croquet" that a friend introduced us to. Croquet calls up images of well-rolled, weeded, and mown lawns. Extreme croquet is what happens if croquet and Parkour had a Love child and it's just learning to walk. Our dog is often with us on these family outings and likes to chase the croquet balls and pick them up, run around a bit, then drop them. She is officially known as "The Course Hazard" and if she picks up and moves your ball, you have to play it where it lies for good or bad (it's permitted to try to wheedle her). It's not allowed to complain about what she does - she's The Course Hazard. Unfortunately, I feel like NFL football these days has a Course Hazard called "the referees" which inserts the same random element of advantage or disadvantage that our dog adds to Extreme Croquet. I can't exactly call the refs "luck" since they are sentient beings with freedom of action. But they definitely can become a deciding factor in games, and this seems amplified in single elimination playoffs when Everything is on the line. I think we saw the killer just last week. The guy who will do anything to win, crazy stuff like that lateral to Shakir.