Beck Water

No. "The injury occurred during the game with the Jets" Bernard came out 1 snap before Taron Johnson and 3 snaps before Benford and Douglas Maybe someone who has the all-22 can look and see if there's anything at that time of the game that looks like a possible injury? Taron Johnson came out after the Jets 3rd drive of the 3rd Q with 5:13 left Of course it's always possible he injured it earlier, and toughed it out until the Bills went up 26 to 0 He looked good. Of course, by that time the Jets were looking for the bus, so there's that.

I would guess that they would dress Mike White. If the intent is to start Josh Allen but then pull him quickly, they won't want to put Allen back in if Trubisky gets injured, so they need Plan C

"Knocks against" Tua I see what you did there!

And where did this deification of turnover numbers come from? Yeah, we all get it, turnovers are bad. Turnover ratio is very predictive of W/L But there is a risk/reward ratio there. We all remember 2015 when Taylor had a fantastic season with only 6 INTs. Well, we also remember how that was a frustrating number for fans because Taylor simply wouldn't throw with anticipation; he was risk-averse to the point of being paralyzed as a passer.

This is true. Sam Howell did that with 23 to Allen's 22, but he was in his first season of playing, and that's kind of expected of a QB in his first playing year. There is still "narrative" at play though. Allen had 22 (2nd) Hurts had 20 (3rd), Tua had 19 (4), Mahomes had 17 (5) Those are still A Lot of turnovers, but I don't hear the narrative about Hurts or Tua "way too many turnovers, turnover machine" as we've heard about Josh.

I mean, I think McDermott is concerned about the Bills defense. There's no way he thinks giving up 44 and then 42 points in successive weeks is OK, and he can't have failed to notice that NE and the Jets moved the ball pretty easily on us to start the game.

I tend to agree. I think the Rams game represented a 'perfect storm': 1) the Bills players had just won a difficult snow game the prior week - those kind of games leave the players extra bruised and sore because Highmark lacks under-field heaters so it's like playing on cement 2) the Bills players and coaches had trouble taking their "party hats" off from clinching the division to get back down to business against a team w/ a mediocre record 3) the Rams meanwhile were giving that game everything they got, with their playoff hopes on the line (and in fact, while the Rams have won every game since then, they have not managed to score more than 20 points in any of their next 3 games (44 total points in their next 3 games, as many as they scored against the Bills). Couple ways of looking at that: either the Bills D is horridly worse than the 9ers, Jets, and Cardinals, or the Rams were extraordinarily revved up and drained themselves to get that victory Then the next couple of weeks, the Bills were playing through a bunch of D injuries. I think the Bills D is better than the Rams and Lions game showed, but I can't say I'm not concerned by it. I felt at the start of the season that it was not going to be a very good defense this season because they just didn't have the Hosses. They've outplayed my expectations by A Lot, but my expectations were pretty low.

Well, then. That Settles That. No need to play the games, I see!

I love a data nerd, so Kudos for putting this together, but I think "total QBR" has been pretty well debunked as a metric of QB play, much less a QB value to the team in terms of W and L, so I don't think your analysis really says too much Let's just give it a couple eyeball checks. In 2022, the Bengals played the Chiefs for the AFC Championship, the Eagles played the 49ers for the NFC championship, and the Giants and Seahawks snuck into the playoffs at 9-7-1 total QBR has Mahomes and Allen at the top of the list, but then places Tua, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, and Jacoby Brissett ahead of Joe Burrow in total QBR. Does that pass the eyeball test to you for a metric determining a QB's value to his team? Really, Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett of more value to their team than Joe Burrow? In 2023, Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott top the QBR list and Herbert, Stafford, and Cousins all come out ahead of Mahomes. Again, common sense eyeball test? I'd love to look under the hood and understand how QBR is weighting different things, but I can't; QBR is calculated by a proprietary algorithm using 10,000 lines of code. ESPN has never released the complete formulas and procedures to calculate QBR And of course, there's this famous example: So I think you have a great idea of trying to use some form of objective metric, but I think there's reason to believe that total QBR may not be a very good choice.

False statement. Jackson has 4 interceptions and 10 fumbles (5 lost) giving him 9 turnovers Allen has 6 interceptions and 5 fumbles (2 lost) giving him 8 turnovers 9 is not less than 8 Therefore Jackson has more turnovers than Allen this year. 2 fewer interceptions, but fumbles count as turnovers.

I have a 5 burner, 2 oven 30" wide Kitchenaid gas range that is except for too much technology Thinking about switching to induction since everyone seems to feel it's Truth for rapid heating, temperature control, and energy efficiency. If they're the wave of the future I figure I better switch soon while I still have a few brain cells left to make the adaptation. Anyone got an induction range? Good points/bad points? Reliability? Not really a fan of Alexa much less having my smartphone control my cooking. Give me knobs.

Hopefully this will work This graphic is from four years ago but it's still Perfect. Happy New Year you bender you

Dan Orlovsky said they aren't supposed to disclose who they are voting for....

C'mon man. That was 3rd and goal. Exactly where in that film clip do you feel Kincaid should have "gone hot"? Does the Bills not much good for him to turn around just past the LOS

Yo, Mr. Straw, did I call Arnold a "game manager" or say he was a game manager on that team? Saying he is elevated by having the 3 receivers he has and the run game they have, which I did, is not an equivalent statement. [Last season, Jefferson missed 7 games and Addison was a rookie, so no, the receiver corps was not there all of last year. And they didn't have as good of a run game, no Aaron Jones]

I guess I could best sum up my feelings as "tenuous" On the one hand, in several of the games where we've fared the worst, we were missing key players on defense Ravens Terrell Bernard, Taron Johnson, lost Rapp during the game Texans Taron Johnson, Rapp. Bernard 1st game back and he didn't look good Rams all starters to begin the game, Ingram for Douglas in 4Q Milano 2nd game back and he didn't look good Lions Douglas (Elam played), Rapp (Bishop and Jackson played) Patriots Milano/Williams (Spector played), Douglas (Elam played), Rapp and Hamlin (Bishop and Lewis played) So, when you're down to your 2nd or even 3rd or 4th player at a position, it makes a difference On the other hand, coming back to the Rams game - the word I would use to describe the Bills D at the start of that game is "disinterested". They simply didn't seem to "bring the juice", like they still had their party hats on and didn't expect a lot of fight from a 7-6 team. Well surprise surprise that team is now 10-6 and winning their division. I think when we have our starters healthy and we come out ready to play intense and physical, we can stand with almost anyone I think we don't have enough physically dominant players to win their matchups if we aren't highly motivated or enough backup depth if we are missing more than 1-2 guys. I also think that if a physically dominant RB like Henry is healthy and comes ready to play, he is A Lot for us.

The perception (and I rather share it) is that Josh is elevating the team, while Darnold is being elevated by his team. I'm pretty much tickled for Sam that he's having such a resurgence in his career. But he's got a very good RB in Aaron Jones and in Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson he's possibly got the 2nd best receiving corps in the league, right after the Bengals. I did NOT have "4 QB from the 2018 Draft Class In Playoffs" on my Bingo Card

In terms of points given up, the Lions D is #9. The Bills D is #11. Both Ds have been decimated by injury. I saw a better defensive game vs. the 49ers than I expected because apparently the Lions got a couple of guys back.

It's not. It's never been. It's supposed to be about the impact of the contribution. That was Spencer Brown's point in his interview that's being interpreted as "taking a shot" at Lamar. His point is last year, when Allen had better stats, the MVP conversation was all "it's not about stats, it's about the impact of his contribution to the team". OK, fair enough. But now, this year, don't turn around and say "look, Lamar has better stats". As far as impact on the team, taking nothing away from Jackson who is a great player and who has worked hard to improve his abilities as a passer, but from what I see the addition of Derrick Henry and the year he's had, have had the biggest impact on the Ravens success. The Ravens didn't beat the Bills because Lamar Jackson threw for 156 yds. They beat the Bills because Derrick Henry rushed for 199 yds. When I've watched the Ravens play, Henry jumps off the screen as a difference maker for them.

I like the guy in the comments who says "Lamar's receivers get open because his rushing abilities let him buy time for them to get open" Tell me you haven't watched Josh Allen play very much, without telling me you haven't watched Josh Allen play very much I personally agree with you. I kind of laughed when Rodgers alluded to his own 4 MVP awards, do you think he wouldn't trade them for 4 more Superbowl appearances?

None of us did, including the Bills FO....that's why we wanted the Vikes draft pick LOL

Hamlin was inactive. Rapp and Bishop played 100% of the snaps at safety.

When you're playing backups or 3rd string vs starters, it does make a difference. When there are enough of the starters down, the defense drops off. Walk me through it. The Vikes are 14-2. If the Lions lose tonight, they'll be 13-3. Next week, when the Lions play the Vikes, if the Lions win they'll be 14-3, and the Vikes will be 14-3 - but the Lions would own the tiebreaker. So if they lose tonight, they still have a chance at the #1 seed next week. If they win tonight, then they still need to beat the Vikes next week because if the Vikes win they'll be 15-2.

Yep. Everyone was led by Tim Graham to totally dunk on Whaley his last year here with the stat about the Bills having the fewest players they drafted on the team. Like that meant Whaley didn't draft talent. Except that Whaley did draft talent, both as Nix understudy and as GM - shown by the fact that a number of players he drafted had decent careers or are still in the league. But the Bills moved on because every time we swapped coaches - from Gailey to Marrone to Ryan to McDermott - the players did not suit their scheme so they were jettisoned or left to walk in FA, in favor of FA or draftees who were a better scheme fit. Continuity provides a talent advantage.

My guess is that Shavers has been that guy who works extra-hard on the scout team and is always there when one of the backup QB wants extra passing practice. So yes, that was quite an impressive catch and run, but I'm gonna guess the game ball is also recognition for being a great and hardworking teammate all season Healing and rust-scraping, sure The playtime percentage data are out on NFL.com Some interesting observations: -Rapp and Bishop played 100% of the snaps on D. I take that as saying, they want to get Bishop more playing time with Rapp in there as the traffic director to keep things under control (and maybe he has a bit of rust too). -The starting CB trio of Benford, Douglas, and Johnson went out earlier than I'd thought - only played 63% of the snaps -Starting linebackers Bernard and Milano even earlier than that, 59% and 56% of the snaps -Ed Oliver, who normally takes ~70% of the snaps, took 43%. Rousseau, who has been taking 70-80% of the snaps, took 41% -DQJ 35% of the snaps, but he was down last week as well, 40% vs NWE vs the 50-55%. Something may be going on there -Von Miller 22%, down from his 35-40%, but he played 44% last week vs NWE which represented a high since he returned from suspension. I guess if it's TL;DR the summary is that the starting defense was only in a bit over half the snaps of the game. Note that doesn't correspond to "first half of the game" because the Jets offensive plays weren't split evenly across the halves