Beck Water

This.

Good Golly Miss Molly. For those scoring at home, this means that Denver is taking on $85M in dead cap this season. Think about that one moment. Out of a cap of $256M, that's basically 1/3 of the cap devoted to one player - who is not on the team.

Why? From watching him painfully try to play in Pittsburgh, my thought was "this guy is toast and I never want to see him on a football field again" I would really like us to have a backup who can actually finish a game constructively or maybe even win one.

My thought

"Contract expired"

I'm not sure Douglas is redundant even if Elam can start. We really don't know what's going to be "up" with Tre White. He's got $16.4M cap if he plays, $10.4M dead cap if he's cut or traded. Something like 40% of players don't return to play according to this (relatively limited) article, and those who do are apparently impacted the season following their injury. $16.4M is a lot to pay for a guy who may be playing at a backup level. It would be very un-Beane-like to give up a 3rd round pick (even with a 5th back) for a half-season rental. Douglas has a $9.9M cap hit with no dead money. I think we keep either or, but not both. I think you might be reading in a bit much here, though I agree tone of voice, facial expression and etc might strengthen the significance you attach. But if I'm talking about (say) meeting a new coworker that I just spent 3 months on a project with but am now not in the same building, I would say "it was a pleasure getting to know him" not "it is a pleasure getting to know him". If we're talking about the defense we had last year, it may not be significant to say "I liked what he brought". I'd have to listen to old Beane pressers where he talks about other players. I don't think he's an absolute lock - I think it's Douglas OR White, either or not both. But I'm not sure this is significant.

The thing is, if their charter is a standard configuration of 737, there are something like 16 first class seats. So I can see where, if you allocated them to players, that could quickly become an issue too. "OK, Josh Allen gets a seat, the starting OL and DL get 10 seats, but now what? Rotational DLmen? The long snapper? The starting TE - who is that, Kincaid or Knox or both? The starting LB - wait a minute, is Bernard bigger than the nickel corner? Oh, what about the biggest stars, they should get one, move over and let Diggs have that seat. I could see where it could quickly become a divisive issue giving the players the players the 1st class seats

Is it safe to say, "alcohol may have been involved"?

I seem to recall some comments from the last report card that the team's nutritionist or dietician was shared with the Buffalo Sabres so the players felt they didn't have enough time to craft individual programs for them. I'm surprised by the "team travel" thing though, because I remember McDermott saying that the Pegulas had ensured they were comfortable when they traveled, and he appreciated that. Hopefully someone will look into the basis for these ratings and fix them. Right, and this is the team where players have played in 4 Superbowls the last 5 years and won 3 of them. Boggles the mind - like, the other 31 owners want to be that guy

Not quite. The 4 year, $40 million contract will include a signing bonus, which will be paid to the player** up-front. Let's say in this case the player received a $12 million signing bonus. The player puts $12 million in his piggy bank, but for accounting (cap) purposes, the team gets to amortize it over the length of his contract, so $3M each year for 4 years. Then the player will typically be paid a lower salary in his first year (because he got a fat signing bonus) and more money the rest of the contract. For example, in 2021, when Tre White's contract extension took effect, he was paid less than $1M in salary (NFL minimum). Let's say the player's salary will be $1M the first year, $8M his 2nd year, $8M his 3rd year, and $11M his 4th year. So his cap hit is: 1: $1M + $3M = $4M 2: $8M + $3M = $11M 3: $8M + $3M = $11M 4: $11M + $3M = $14M Hold on, next wrinkle: $20M of the player's contract was guaranteed, meaning his $12M signing bonus, plus $1M of 1st year salary, plus $7M of his next year salary. So if the team cuts the player in year 2, they owe him $7M additional cash, and that $7M PLUS the $9M of his remaining year's salary bonuses count against the cap. They have $16M dead cap for that player. On the other hand, if the team cuts the player in year 3, they're only on the hook for $6M (two years of amortized signing bonus) dead cap, which is already in the player's bank account. In year 4, they're on the hook for $3M, since none of his $11M salary was guaranteed. Now let's say in year 3, the team was cash-strapped. So they converted $7M of the player's $8M salary to "restructure bonus". They can amortize it against the length of his contract 3:$1M + $3M(signing) + $3.5M (restructure) = $7.5M This gives the team an extra $3.5M in cap space to sign a low-tier FA or 2, but the player gets paid the same. 4: $11M + $3M(signing) + $3.5M (restructure) = $17.5M. But, if the team cuts the player in year 4, they now take on $7.5M dead cap instead of $3M There are more games that can be tucked into contracts to try to manage the cap while bidding competitively for players - option bonuses, void years, etc but this is just a basic example. One more piece. Let's say the player hasn't quite lived up to expectations and in year 3 has no guaranteed money. Maybe they go to the player and ask if he'd be willing to take a $3M pay cut, to $5M salary. The player sees his status on the team is in jeopardy, but he likes his chances to start and play well with this team. So he says "OK, I'll do that, but in return, I want you to fully guarantee my $5M salary and $3M of my salary next year". The player is, at minimum, still guaranteed the same amount of money as he'd get this season (just spread over 2 years), the team gets cap relief, and the player is trading guarantees for a reduction in his overall contract value.

I may not be clear on what you're asking, so feel free to help me better understand. I think you're asking if a player's amortized bonuses, which have either already been paid or are already committed to the player and guaranteed, can be "given back" as part of a new contract. The only circumstance of which I'm aware where signing bonuses can be given back, is if the player retires before his contract is complete. And then, it's usually only if the player retires pretty immediately after he signs the contract, not a couple years down the line (in theory, the team could request repayment but often don't). So fundamentally, the contract consists of two types of money: yearly cash (salary, per game roster bonuses, and workout bonuses; incentives), and bonuses already paid, but amortized over the length of the contract. The yearly cash can be re-worked as a new contract. The bonuses already paid can not. For example, when a player is traded, his bonuses stay with the trading team, but he is still under contract to the new team with the yearly cash specified in his deal for the duration of the deal. The new team can negotiate a new contract and tear up the old contract, but old team can't (in the immortal words of Eric Wood to Aaron Maybin) say "Give back some of that (bonus) money you ain't *****in' earned!"

Yeah, that was weird. Graham states that per Butler and per McDermott, Butler left on amicable terms. There is the implication that he wanted to receive the DC job, and that he left after he got passed over for Bobby Babich. Then Graham several times implies it couldn't have been amicable - earlier than the piece you quoted he alludes that "amicable parting" is a term used to cover-up a some internal brangling: But, he offers no evidence to support his implication and in fact quotes Butler several times as saying no scandal, amicable, no crazy story. Then he uses examples like Brady leaving the Patriots and the Beatles breaking up (well known to have rancor behind them) to conclude if those could happen "an assistant coach can conclude it's time to move on". Either Graham is obtuse, or he's being too cute with trying to imply that there's something shady going on behind the scenes without offering any evidence. It seems logical to me that if Butler thought he should be tapped as DC, he wouldn't be happy sitting in a meeting room with Bobby Babich as his boss. Personally from what I can tell, Babich may be more qualified, but the ultimate judgement on that is of course McDermott's. I thought there were a couple of glaring omissions in Graham's Ode to Butler as our DB coach. One of them was the mysterious case of Kaiir Elam, a first round pick who had some good play at the end of last season and then seemingly fell down the depth chart to game-day inactive. He has talent, so if Butler is a great talent developer, why is Elam collecting splinters in his butt? Then there are some questions about key breaks in coverage at key moments. Not dissing Butler, he's obviously done some great work here, but I thought Graham's article had some weird aspects.

Shirtless or open vest/jacket is part of Dion’s “jam” these days. He’s said stuff about it showing confidence in his “skinny bod” or something

Perhaps? The concerns about Araiza were 1) inexperience as the holder for FG and XP 2) lack of directional control and finess - he’s a “boomer” who can kick it really far, but not necessarily keep it away from a dangerous returner or down it on the 3 yd line instead of kicking through the EZ He may have been working on these skills the last 2 years, so maybe it’s all good now. Townsend is a free agent AFAIK.

“”Easily a top 15 QB” I could be mistaken, but I don’t think you want to pay a guy whose ceiling is perceived as “top 15 QB”. That’s probably not the path to a championship

I love Josh Allen as our QB, but i thought PFF QB ratings didn’t make sense back in 2015 when we all could see Tyrod Taylor wouldn’t throw with anticipation or to anyone who wasn’t wide open on short or intermediate throws, but he was PFF’s 10th best ranked QB. So I can’t turn coat and be all thrilled by them rating Josh #1.

I’m not “carrying a Bone” for Cover1’s objectivity - I have my own set of concerns with some of their analysis. But to the bolded point - the reason Diggs’ contract is “unmoveable” for the next couple of years has to do with the impact of 3-4 years of signing, option, and restructure bonuses accelerating onto this year’s cap if he’s released - not because Digg’s contract is prohibitive to potential trade partners. Diggs is due to get $18M in salary for the next couple years. He’s like 13th in receiving yards and 10th in 1st downs, Paying him what the trade partner would be on the hook for ($18M for the next 3 years) would slot him in about 15th - 17th in the league, which makes him a reasonable value for money. A team with a rookie QB and a lot of cap space could find that attractive. The trade partner could restructure this year’s salary if they wished. By the same token, in objective metrics a guy who is 8th in receptions/game, 13th in receiving yards, and 10th in 1st downs is by a number of objective metrics a #1 WR in this league and still has value. He’s also very valuable to the Bills because he’s still far and away the best WR on the team, especially during the regular season. Seems like a strange criterion to dis off Cover1 for

Um Hello, three years ago Tampa won the Super Bowl with Tom Brady, Two years ago they went 13-3 with him. Last year he was dregs, but in 2020 and 2021 Baker couldn’t tie Brady’s shoelaces or carry his jock.

So different teams/GMs have different strategies and sometimes it works, sometimes not. For example, Denver has developed a pattern of trying to “buy greatness” at QB. They managed it with Peyton Manning on the shoulders of a fantastic defense, but with Russ Wilson it fizzled. Beane and McDermott have been trying to “buy greatness” at Edge/DL and WR, because our attempts to develop it have been “good not great” (AJE, Rousseau, and Basham at Edge, Harrison Phillips at DT, Zay Jones, Gabe Davis, and Khalil Shakir at WR) The intrinsic problem with that is Old Bodies with a lot of football miles on them, don’t hold up through a long season as well as young bodies. And if they try to save themselves by taking themselves out for breathers or taking plays off, well, that gets to be a habit. Then you’re paying them to be great, but they’re good. Double whammy. Could the Bills make cap room for Evans, I’m sure, but they’d for sure be giving up talent in other areas to do that, and then See Above on the intrinsic problem.

According to the convo Mayfield had with ?Steve Young? Off set, Mayfield expected to be signed. So it may be the Bucs low-balled him (according to Mayfield’s price point) or, Mayfield wanted a vet starter contract and the Bucs said “OK, go out and see what you can get”. I don’t know that I agree with that

Really good post. I do “buy it” that the Covid cap reduction threw.a bit of a wrench into Beane’s plans, but it’s also worth noting that Beane is not above deflecting responsibility. When he arrived here, he pointed fingers at the previous FO for having lots of FA and a high cap on underperformers. But, they also had enough talent to get the Bills to the playoffs that year, even with Beane fire-sale ing a couple of players. And today, we have a high cap on underperformers and lots of FA. His comment about not sucking badly enough to draft Ja’Marr Chase when asked about the Bengals WR talent was also, IMO, highly disingenuous. Now the excuse is the Covid cap. You nailed the bottom line - Beane used a number of high draft picks on OL and DL that did not pan out, so he backfilled with FA and more draft picks. In addition to Cody Ford and Boogie Basham you could add Harrison Phillips and at positions, you could add RB - Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in back to back drafts then another pick on James Cook. This is not to dunk on Beane as a talent evaluator, because a lot of draft picks just plain don’t turn out to be NFL level and all of those guys (maybe except for Basham) can actually play in the league, and maybe how they’re used and talent development has something to do with it. But it’s not just “oh the Covid cap blew us up, woe is me!” It’s that Beane took some moon shots in signing Von Miller and last year Leonard Floyd then the Rasul Douglas trade. The higher cap would be nice

I don’t think Floyd wanted to be extended, at least not at any price the Bills were willing to offer him. Floyd signed a 1-year “prove it” deal with the Rams after he was cut by Da Bears, then signed a 4 year, $64M deal with the Rams, helped them win a Super Bowl, played decently again in 2022, and was cut with 2 years left on his contract and something like $42M paid out. He signed with the Bills at what he regarded as a 30% discount to his last 1 year “prove it” contract of $10M with the Rams, and he undoubtedly wanted a multi-year deal, probably north of $10M/yr (his last 4 year was $16M/year and he earned $21M in 2 years)

Yeah, before/when Beane and McDermott arrived local Buffalo press (Tim Graham etc) pretty much threw Whaley “under the bus” for how few drafted players were still on the Bills team and Beane threw the previous admin under the bus for the cap and FA situation. Well, many of the players Whaley drafted and the Bills moved on from (Stephon Gilmore, Ronald Darby, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Shaq Lawson, even practice squad late round picks like Jonathan Williams and Kevon Seymore) were still playing in the league last year, some for very good teams (Dallas, Ravens, Houston, Browns, Shaq back with the Bills, Seymore with the Ravens PS). Others are out of the league now, but contributed to other teams for several years after the Bills moved on (Ragland, G John Miller, Preston Brown, Russ Cockrell). It’s not like they couldn’t play football. And our FA and cap situation are if anything, worse than they were in 2017 The difference is that back then, the best we had to show for it was a #4 overall defense and no playoffs. Now we have playoff wins the last 4 seasons and consistently top-10 offense and defense, usually top 5. I enjoy that a heck of a lot more than the drought years, I get it to some that’s not good enough because from a championship we are still falling short. Anyway, Beane has been quietly mortgaging the Bills cap situation with signing FA using void years since 2020, because his draft picks haven’t quite cut the mustard. It will be interesting to see how he manages this season, the most challenging for him I think because so many of our top paid players aren’t living up to their contracts and it’s a very good question whether that can change (Diggs, Von Miller, Tre White)

No, as far as I’m aware the void years stay void even if we re-sign him to a new contract, so the dead money stays dead.

I agree Tre is one of the trickiest decisions facing the team. I'm really curious where you're getting ACL takes 18 full months of recovery but Achilles is 8 months. I don't think that matches data on actual RTP time