Beck Water

NP I had to take a calculator to all the bonuses in Spotrac to be sure I had it right. That's actually an interesting question. What makes Diggs "untradeable" to the Bills, is all the amortized bonuses (signing, option, restructure) that would all accelerate into the current year. We have to pay more to cut or trade him than we pay to keep him, AND we need to feel confident we've replaced his average of 111 catches and 1300 yds since 2020 (or at least 100 catches and 1000+ yds). What the trade partner normally takes on is any roster or workout bonuses due, salary and incentives. So those can 100% be reworked to make him a more attractive trade partner. Sometimes the trading team agrees to eat part of the salary, sometimes the player extends his contract and renegotiates, the receiving team can also convert part of his salary to bonus (since they have no bonus already on the book, the trading team ate them). But the part that makes him a "poison pill" for the Bills to move on from - his amortized bonuses that accelerate into now PLUS the need to replace his talent - as far as I know, that's all money the player has already received and I don't think the CBA allows give-backs on those.

Yeah, that's the paradox - if we're willing to move him, either his talent level has plummeted or he's Trouble in the Teepee behind the scenes. Intrinsically, that means another team isn't going to see high value in a WR who'll be almost 31 when the season starts, and who is due $18.5M in salary.

Ah Wat? Diggs has no "cash bonus" due 3/17. His 2024 salary does guarantee on 3/17, but it would still cost the Bills extra cap ($31M vs $27.8M) to trade him, and leave us a gaping hole on offense at WR. And it's his salary, not a cash bonus. The dead cap does NOT include his 2024 salary, just signing and restructure bonuses. His dead cap is not that much larger than his cap hit (only about $3M) but the main problem is where are you gonna get the extra cap AND replace the talent? Maybe if some team is willing to trade us a talented young receiver on their 1st contract but why would they do that? It would, but then we have to replace the talent level. And if another team is willing to give us a 1st for him.....he's still got the talent level.

Yeah! Oh....wait.....

Can you help me understand why you believe this is true? Statistically, in the 4 years before Beasley came to Buffalo (which include his best years with Dallas), he averaged 57 receptions for 589 yds, 32 1D. His best season with Dallas was 75 receptions for 833 yds, 51 1D. In his 4 most recent full seasons, Samuel averaged 64 receptions for 687 yds, 34 1D. His best season was with CAR, Joe Brady as OC: 77 receptions for 851 yds, 39 1D.

I don't follow this logic at all. Shakir got more playing time when he earned it. He saw the field ~1/3 of the time his rookie season and roughly saw 1 target every 14 snaps. He only caught 50% of his targets and had 2 drops on 20 targets - 10%. I wasn't impressed with his release or his routes. I was legit impressed last season - I thought his route running and release took a big jump, he didn't drop a thing, his catch % soared, and 1/3 of his yards were YAC. His increased playing time of >50% snaps reflected that - but he was still seeing 1 target every 13 snaps or so. I did see times when he was open and wasn't targeted. But we also didn't see a lot of the intermediate and option routes Beasley used to run, and for all I thought Shakir really came on I also think there's a reason for that. If Samuel can add those back to the repertoire it can only be good. Harty last season saw 15% of the snaps on offense. He wasn't blocking anyone.

I don't know that the Chargers will do it, but in theory if a player retires the team can request the amortized portion of his signing bonus to be repaid.

Question: Did you see 'pure speed' in Harty? Because when his number was called for the Bills last year, I thought he looked slow. @Buffalo716 what say you? I thought the reason we started seeing Diggs trying to do some gadget stuff from the backfield was because Harty just couldn't get 'er done.

The difference for KC, is that in the KC receiving corps Travis Kelce has always been "Pat's Guy". There were a couple years where Hill had more yards and/or receptions, but Kelce has always been the go-to guy for Mahomes. So when KC traded Hill, they still had "Pat's Guy" I think the real problem with Diggs is that, as I think one of the Cover1 guys put it, "the Bro-mance is Over" with Josh. Reportedly at one point in the 2022 season they were barely talking to one another.

Beck: "JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes. And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds. His catch % of 77% was insane." SaulGoodman: "He did almost nothing the next season. ..is a mediocre player. He hasn't been very good for years" You know, just as the brokers tell us "past performance doesn't predict future results", having a bad subsequent year doesn't mean the previous one was mediocre. "Eye popping", no, "number 1 receiver", no., but when KC signed him to an incentive-laden 1 year, $3.8M contract (it had $5.5M in incentives that he met), they were expecting him to be what he had been in Pittsburgh - a very good #2 WR who had moments of great when paired with a great QB and other receiving talent (in KC, that would be Kelce). And with 77% catch %, 78 receptions, 933 and handing over those $5.5M in incentives, that's exactly what KC got. But hey - the fact that he played badly in 2023 in NE must mean yOU're RIgHt!

At the point where Beane signed Diggs to his contract extension in the 2022 off-season, Diggs had been the #1 WR in the league in 2020 and was #5 in targets, #8 in yards in 2021. It's kind of hard to argue that's "good but not elite". #1 is usually .....elite. It's also worth noting that at the time his contract was signed, it slotted in with his production. Currently on average value, Diggs is the #5 paid WR. Is that an over-value? Diggs was #13 in the league for receiving yards last season, #7 for targets and #7 for receptions. It's worth noting that roughly half (9) of the top 20 WR for receiving yards in the league last year are playing on their rookie deals. That goes for 5 of the 11 WR who had more yards than Diggs - Amon-Ra St Brown, Puka Nacua, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, and Ja'marr Chase. So Diggs is paid at #5 and produced as #8 of the WR who are on their 2nd contracts. It's pretty hard to make an argument that it was a "terrible decision" or that it's one of the "worst contracts in the NFL" based on fact. In terms of cap hit, a big problem is that the Bills have a couple very highly paid players who in the last 2 years have a much bigger gap between their availability/level of play vs. their contract in Tre' White and Von Miller.

I think it's entirely possible that Gabe has fewer targets but a higher catch % and fewer interceptions against him in Jax. But that may go with fewer receptions and lower yards.

Um...unclear on the point. We don't have Kelce. As a TE, he's a unicorn. We hope Kincaid will be utilized and develop to Sam LaPorta/TJ Hockenson levels, but Kelce or Kittle would be a big Stretch Goal. So I think we better draft a WR

Well.....context matters. If your QB is the former #1 overall pick in the draft, is widely regarded as one of the best technical passers in the game, you're a coach who prides yourself on teaching offense, and you've already got a WR in the room who was a Bust in Buffalo but started looking like a legit NFL WR on your watch (Zay Jones), you might have a better case for yourself than otherwise. But I don't think he puts it that way. I think when you roll the Gabe Davis hightlights, there's a good bit of "Gabe read the defense correctly and chose the right route option there, that INT is not on Gabe" "WTF was Allen thinking, chucking it into triple coverage there, that INT is not on Gabe" and everyone else in the room nods because he's right.

The Chiefs #1 receiver is a TE named Kelce.

Cole Beasley, with a dash of Emmanuel Sanders. He's been playing mostly from the slot and is solid there, but his RB background makes him a harder RAC guy than Beasley was and he can play better than Beasley could when split out wide. Probably less of a Football Savant than Beasley but I don't know on that. Patience, Grasshopper. Wait and see what the contract really is.

My German-speaking grandfather would say your German grandmother was a Wise Woman!

Oh, Yeah. They're maneuvering to package #23 and #11 to move up.

There's no "think" about it. Samuel HAS done far better in his career, than Sherfield or Harty have done in their careers as receivers. His worst season of play since his rookie year is about the same as their best season.

I don't know what role your friend holds with what NFL team, so that's kind of a pig in a poke. But (and remember, I liked McKenzie) I don't see how anyone in talent evaluation for an NFL team can seriously make that comparison. Excepting 2021 when he was injured, Samuel has been a consistent 64 reception, 687 yd per season guy for the last 4 years - primarily (~70%) from the slot. And that's with the likes of The Ghost of Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Taylor Heinicke, The Ghost of Carson Wentz, and a promising but young Sam Howell throwing him the ball. McKenzie got his chance to start from the slot in 2022, and the best he managed was 42 receptions for 423 yds. That's his BEST year. He had another chance to earn starting snaps in the slot from the Colts, and he barely saw the field (11% of offensive snaps) until he actually got suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team". McKenzie came into the league as a fast guy who could barely run routes, and developed into an acceptable route runner with a limited tree, who could get choked off by physical play. Samuel came into the league able to run routes (that's why he was drafted in the 2nd) and improved from there, and he's a little fireplug. Harty was a rifle shot signed for potential. His best season was 36 receptions for 570 yds. The Bills were hoping he'd return to form from his 2022 injury. News flash: he didn't. Some days you da windshield, some days you da bug. Sherfield was a career ST guy who had a pretty good season as the #3 WR behind two very dangerous WR1s. He contributed here on ST and on offense consistent with his prior seasons when he wasn't playing behind Hill and Waddle - solid blocking, occasional receptions. *ding* *ding* *ding* That's the hope.

The thing is, they aren't "apples to apples" players. One of them has of recent been playing 70% of his snaps in the slot, but can also play out wide (that's Samuel). He's been a consistent contributor there on 2 teams, and with some poor QB throwing to him. He had his best season under Joe Brady as OC in CAR. The other (Brown) was drafted in the 1st round and traded for a 1st round pick because he was seen as having Justin Jefferson-like potential to contribute. From that perspective, he's just shown flashes. Maybe it's the offenses he's been playing in, or the specific QB throwing to him, but by some perspectives he's been a bust, he hasn't lived up to his 1st round billing. He also bitched his way off the Ravens after finally breaking 1000 yds. The contracts aren't "apples to apples" either. One of them signed a contract that will allow the Bills to retain his services for several years. The other signed a 1 year "prove it" deal. I expect when the details come out, we'll find that the Bills cap hit from Samuel this year is less than the Chiefs are paying for Brown.

At the time the Chiefs signed TikTokBoi, he was coming off IR but had shown strong, at times elite, performance with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him (with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, Not So Much). So dissing off that signing because of how SS performed the year AFTER he left KC, not really reasonable assessment. JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes. And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds. His catch % of 77% was insane. The Chiefs weren't expecting Skyy Moore to be a #1 receiver, they were expecting that of JJSS. That said, they didn't get what they wanted in development from Moore, which is why they drafted Rashee Rice. Who by the way, developed very nicely as the season went along and wound up close to 1000 yds. That's kind of typical of the draft, you won't always hit, you may have to take 2 or 3 shots for that. When you're paying an elite QB, teams have by and large 2 choices in how they acquire WR: 1) potential gems with a flaw - guys who have in some sense underperformed expectations but you think can shine with The Man at QB polishing them 2) draft until you hit on one.

I don't think the Bills use Brady's former terminology. But I do think that Joe Brady has a very good idea what Samuel can do and how he wants to use him, and also what kind of player he is in the locker room. I mean, no team, and I mean NO team, hits on their draft picks consistently. KC had no idea that Clyde Edwards Helaire would get sent to the bench by a 7th round pick who turned out to have a Tiger in his Tank.

It's a good question. I think the narrative is that Gabe has produced more consistently with the lower percentage downfield catches he's been asked to make, but that he has untapped potential because Josh has had poor decision making in choosing to throw to Gabe, and perhaps made the wrong read on option routes with Gabe. Pederson likely thinks with a QB who plays more in-control and in-system throwing to him, his performance will make a jump, and it may.

This is totally a guess, but with 3 year/$24M $15M guaranteed, I think we'll find that breaks down to something like a $12M signing bonus with a void year ($3M/yr), vet min salary for >6 years of $1.2M, $0.8M of per-game roster bonuses so $5M cap hit. 2025, $3M salary for a $6M cap hit. 2026, $7M salary so $10M cap hit, but no new money guaranteed. If he's making good here at age 30, Bills will try to extend him. $2M of the reported $24M would be incentives for stuff like >1000 yd season, >80 receptions, pro bowl, all-pro, and so forth. So my guestimater would break it down as: 2022: $5M cap hit 2023: $6M cap hit 2024: $10M cap hit 2025: FA, $3M void year to extend signing bonus If I'm right-sh, that's a dang good deal for a player who has been solid and consistent and played mostly from the slot. WRT the statement up-thread that KC's contract for Marquise Brown is "better", that's gonna depend upon how you see it. Brown was a former 1st round pick who the Cards swapped a 1st round pick for, because he has the potential to be elite. He's had one VG season out of 5 so far. For his potential and pedigree, the Chiefs got him at a fire sale. 1 of 2 things will happen: 1) he lives up to his potential with Mahomes targeting him and the Chiefs either pay him the big bucks or watch him walk 2) he doesn't and they over-paid for his actual performance, as they did with MVS. It's kind of a high risk/high reward type thing. The Bills contract is more steady-eddy. They got a consistent performer who has spent much of his career with "meh" QBs or QB on the downhill slide, and locked up his services for several seasons at a fair price. He's unlikely to take over the field, but they could potentially get Beasley-like value from him for several seasons and he's unlikely to "bust" if he stays healthy. More of a high floor/low ceiling kind of thing.