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Everything posted by Beck Water
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And I "get" the arguments for your perspective. It can be argued that yards/reception have a lot to do with how he was being used, especially the 2nd half of the season. But in addition to yards per game, I pointed out upthread some other metrics where he doesn't rank in the top 10 - drop%, YAC, etc. Time Will Tell. The point is that Diggs thinks he's a top-10 WR and his agents can make objective arguments to back that up, and find exculpatory reasons for the not so good metrics. So I don't think we'll be seeing Diggs re-negotiating his contract any time soon to facilitate a trade OR improve the Bills cap space situation.
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That's the fundamental question, Bill: what are we all missing? I think it's pretty common for top WR to be Diva-like and for uber-competitive players to not be best-behaved on the sideline during key games (Kelce bumping into Reid etc etc). So if all there is, is what we saw in public, Eh. On the other hand, if it's the tip of an iceberg and there's more and worse where that came from.... Teammates genuinely seem to speak well of Diggs. There are people on this board who have some connections and have evidently heard some stuff, which means there are enough former Bills players and assistant coaches roaming around the league right now that if there are stories to tell, they're probably out there. I think we just don't know.
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You left out this quote from the article you linked: "Ultimately, the Bills are a Super Bowl contender, and there is almost no realistic scenario where they trade or release Diggs since they would be quarterback Josh Allen's No. 1 target and taking significant dead money in the process." Regarding the article's comment about the Bills $7.4M cap space, that doesn't include Taron Johnson's recently announced contract extension, or Tre' White's contract coming off the books after June 1, giving an additional ~$10M. Diggs has thrown down on social media that he considers himself a top-5 WR since coming to Buffalo and it's pretty doubtful he would want to re-negotiate his contract. That's the difference between Knox and Von Miller vs. Diggs: Both Knox and Miller had an objective fall-off in their performance that made them poor value for their contracts. Objectively Von Miller wasn't close to the best DE on the team, and by several metrics Knox wasn't close to the best TE (for blocking, yes). Objectively, Diggs WAS the best receiver on the Bills and arguably top 10 in the league.
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Theoretically, any player is available for "the right price". The question is whether "the right price" for the seller, and "the right price" for the buyer, have any realistic overlap. At this point, the potential trade partner needs to be willing to give up something of great enough value to compensate the Bills for losing the talents of a legit top-10 WR in the league (even last season by most metrics - targets, receptions, TD, 1D) - who is clearly still the best WR on the team and it isn't close. And they need to be willing to take on $19M of financial obligation this year including $18.5M of guaranteed salary. $19M per year slots Diggs in as #17 or 18 for active WR contracts which sounds like good value, but consider that roughly half of the top-20 WR are actually on their first contracts so are actually better value. And then set the fact that Diggs age of 31 next season and there are significant metrics where he wasn't top-10: yards (13 for a WR), YAC (something like 51 for WR), drop% (something like 27th for WR). Then there are the rumors about Diggs being a bit of a headache - the stuff we see in the public like not showing up for OTAs and a meeting that led McDermott to say he was "very concerned"; arms raised yelling at Josh on the sideline during the Bengals playoff game; dipping out of the locker room and away from the press after two successive playoff losses; and any inside rumors there might be of stunts he's pulled behind the scenes or behavior in the locker room that's not the best. If nothing else, a trade partner has to ask "if the Bills are willing to incur a cap hit and trade the best WR on the team, Why?"
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Of course they do. But they also likely "are what they are". My experience from this and other venues: 80% of people are nice, reasonable, well-doing people. Another 15% can get easily upset, but will calm down and will then listen to other points of view. There's about 3% that are reactive and pugnacious and need to bang their head into a wall some, to decide maybe the wall won't relocate for the benefit of their skull. Then there's the remaining 2% who are just not able or willing to interact with any POV but their own. They "are what they are". Caveat: I am regularly shocked by some of the well-sourced info @SDS used to bring up (maybe still does) in the Shoutbox about how many Americans believe Q or other conspiracy theories, so maybe my past experience is Out Of Date and it should be remembered that 95% of statistics are made up.
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Not following this. "Blackmon is 25, which makes him about Poyer's age"....Poyer is 32, almost 33. Did you mean Poyer's age when he came to Buffalo, 26? I think Blackmon would be a very good add.
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Tre'Davious White scheduled to visit the Rams and Raiders.
Beck Water replied to Gregg's topic in The Stadium Wall
That 1 time salary guarantee has no relevance here. It's a 1 time clause that if a veteran player is on a team the 1st day of the regular season, his salary for that season is guaranteed. Teams aren't and don't start paying salaries until they start playing regular season games. None of Tre's 2024 salary was guaranteed. Yes, 2 players per season can be cut now (thus we don't owe them roster or workout bonus, and any new guarantees void). The released player can sign with a new team at any time, but the team that has cut him keeps his salary on the books counting against the cap, until after June 1, then they take this year's amortized bonus money onto this year's (2024) cap, and next year's and all subsequent years bonus money onto next year's cap. Post-June 1 cuts also don't count in the comp pick calculation formula. It's one of the wrinkles that makes NFL capology head spinning when fans start down that road. -
Tre'Davious White scheduled to visit the Rams and Raiders.
Beck Water replied to Gregg's topic in The Stadium Wall
Agree, we had to make a hard choice to keep either Rasul Douglas or Tre White. Rasul was healthy and cost way less, and Tre had large uncertainties around if he'd come back to himself and when. -
Seems like a wise and erudite take(tm) Like Josh Allen going from 110 degrees in Fresno to Laramie, Wyoming? As he said "I guess I'm going to have to get used to it". It gets cold in Oklahoma and Colorado and even Kansas and Baltimore during football season It stays warm in Detroit inside that dome. You either have the mindset that "I'm going to get used to it, Football is Football" or you don't.
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If you hover over the link, it's a Fox News story. Always hover before you click.
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Then he'll be an idiot. Twitter (now X) - all social media these days - is pretty much a sewer. You can meet the dregs of humanity on there. If I choose to go walk in a sewer and throw leftover steak around to lure out the rats, when I could instead take a stroll through the beautiful park that is life off social media and look at the beautiful flowering trees and bulbs, watch little bunnies nibbling and see squirrels and deer and look for owls perched in trees, I'd be an idiot. I'd be even more of an idiot if I conclude, based on my sewer walk choice, that all animals are rats (or that all Bills fans are horrible). And I could go further than that. In the sewer of X, if Diggs chose to post positive content like he did when he first came to Buffalo and posted videos of himself doing incredible sprint workouts where he got up to peak speeds of 21 or 22 mph, or doing catching drills hauling in off-target balls while standing on 1 foot on a balance ball, he'd draw out the well-dressed and best behaved 'rats' to say nice things to him. But he doesn't, so the well-dressed and best behaved X'er fans have no reason to look at his content and interact, they're frustrated by the obscure "ready for watever" breadcrumbs he tosses down and they leave him alone.
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You don't necessarily have to be that rural to have feral dogs, and they don't necessarily make the news. (Sometimes they aren't truly feral, they're pets that irresponsible bahstahd owners let loose at night to have a run, and they join up in packs before innocently heading home) We have a city park I used to run in after work with some colleagues. We were minding our own business passing through a wooded portion of the trail and the pack came out of a culvert towards us. The guy I was running with yelled stomped his feet and they ran off into the woods while we beat feet into open ground (but kept a careful listen). Wished I'd had pepper spray. The park has deer, rabbits, ground hogs - all kinds of dog food. A bit later, the feral dogs in the park did make the news when they got into the zoo somehow and killed several African antelope. Poor antelope were penned up, didn't have a chance. After that the city Got Real about dog trapping. Don't know if they're still there. I do see dog-ish poo with hair in it sometimes and we occasionally smell Long Dead Critters while we're walking our pup.
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I'll give it a go to explain. Please excuse me if I describe stuff you know, but nothing will make sense unless the basics are known. NFL contracts are divided into roughly two bins: bonus money, and yearly cash. Yearly cash is stuff like salary (paid per game), workout bonuses, and roster bonuses. Salary may or may not be guaranteed. Bonus money includes signing bonus paid when the contract is signed, but also option bonuses which can be written into the contract to pay later and restructure bonuses which are when the yearly salary is dropped to vet minimum and the rest is paid out as a restructure bonus. Here's the thing: the team can chop bonuses up into pieces corresponding to the length of the contract, and a piece assigned to each year of the contract (amortized) So the cap hit for a player on the roster consists of yearly cash, and the bonus money pieces assigned to that year. With me so far? For Diggs, that number is about $27.8M, of which ~$19M is his salary, roster and workout bonuses, and ~$8.8M is the chunk of his signing, option, and restructure bonuses assigned to 2024. Now here's the next part. When a player is cut or traded, the team doesn't owe his salary, workout, and roster bonuses any more (unless they are guaranteed). If he's traded, that money gets paid by the new team. BUT, all of the player's amortized signing, option and restructure bonuses for this year and subsequent contract years all get added together and lobbed onto this year's cap. For Diggs, that number would be $31M - about $ Now here's the catch: if a player is cut and designated "post June 1", OR if a player is traded after June 1, only the portion of his bonus money assigned to this year count against the cap this year. The rest is deferred to next year. So, we would get "cap relief" this year if Diggs were traded, by handing off his ~$19M salary workout and roster money to his new team, and only counting this year's bonuses of $8.8M against this years cap. BUT, the rest of the bonuses ($22.3M) would count against the 2025 salary cap. That's what people mean by "cap relief" if he's traded after June 1, AND the trade partner agrees to take on his salary and workout and roster bonuses. Of course, you have to find a trade partner who is willing to do that. That really ought to be what Allen says to Diggs whenever Diggs yells. Catch the damned ball, Stefon.
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Kenny Pickett being traded to Eagles (according to Schefter)
Beck Water replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
I believe Kurt Warner has Entered the Chat Here's a link to the Pittsburgh Beat Writer article quoted in that - trust the beat writer more than Florio https://sports.yahoo.com/steelers-beat-writer-shares-insight-200750586.html I guess if Tomlin "promised Pickett he'd get a chance to compete" then he learns about Wilson being signed and told Wilson is in "Pole Position" that could lead to unhappiness. -
The thing is, he apparently had a career year last season....AFTER recovering from the torn Achilles.
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I can't hate on the notion of the Bills using sound draft resources at OL. That said, I think Beane has some kind of positional value metric he bakes into the Bills draft board, and C in Rd 1 ain't it. Do you mean Zach Frazier, C from WV?
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I wouldn't say coyotes are that numerous here. But we do see them. The other day I saw one trotting along the railway embankment 3 blocks south of here. I had my dog with me (and no stick). I was surprised how big it was - I read that they're 20-50 lbs and 24" at the shoulder but I would have said this one was easily 30", it was bigger than my 22" 50 lb dog for real. I kept my dog at heel and shushed her when she wanted to bark at it. It was minding its own business and I wanted to keep it that way. Of course, it could have been a coy dog or a coy wolf. Hair sticking out could just mean a feral dog, we have a couple packs of them too. They're much more of a menace than wildlife IMO because usually wildlife are timid and wary (at least coyotes) but dogs usually have no fear of people at all. Someone reported 4 domestic rabbits in a particular area a week ago and then on Friday was all "I can't find a trace of them" well durrr. If not coyotes we have hawks and barred owls, too.
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Can someone who is a Betting Savant please translate that for me? It kind of looks to me like they're saying you have to bet $230 to get your stake + $100 back if Diggs is on the Bills? (What Process means by "free money"?) On the other hand, if you bet $100 and Diggs goes to the Cowboys, you get $400 + $100 which I think means oddsmakers don't think it likely. Everyone else is higher odds yet. But I don't bet, and I really don't understand betting lines.
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Do Not Blaspheme the Fitness of Cougar Biker Chicks by calling them a "bunch of old ladies on bike". You have no idea. Those mountain trails around those parts - they would drop you like a lead balloon. You would be "chick'd", for reals.
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"As a species, cougars are not considered endangered" Two subspecies, the Florida Panther and the Costa Rican Puma, are endangered. The ordinary Western variety? Nah. They can be pretty hot, No Cap.
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Bills sign Taron Johnson to 3-year $31 million extension
Beck Water replied to Roundybout's topic in The Stadium Wall
That's what the post-June 1 release of Tre' White is suppose to handle - another $10.2M of cap space, with $4.1M dead cap pushed into next year. -
Bills have private workout scheduled with WR Troy Franklin
Beck Water replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall
There are arguments to be made both ways. You can have a guy who looks all-world on scouting and film and is putting up great numbers, because he's playing against a lower level of competition (think Zay Jones playing for East Carolina). Maybe that will translate to a higher level of competition (think Stefon Diggs playing for Maryland) or maybe it won't. Or you can have a guy who comes across fabulous in interviews with off-the-charts attitude, maturity, and work ethic (think Nathan Peterman), but who doesn't have the athletic chops to cash the checks his brain can write when he's on the clock. And some guys just interview poorly. IMO you need both, though it's fair to ask if the Combine tests are still the best available metrics for players in this day and age. -
Hollins played for the Dolphins during Covid year, yes. I'm puzzled, because I think it was a preseason game - I don't believe the Dolphins played the Saints during the regular season in 2020 - but my vague memory is that the preseason games were cancelled that year. Maybe the final one took place?
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Bills have private workout scheduled with WR Troy Franklin
Beck Water replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall
I got no comment on the tape, other than that a release at the college level ain't cuttin it in the NFL. But if a man has the security to play football dressed like a Banana Slug, or like an unholy cross between a Persian Lime and a Banana Slug, he's all right by me. -
Bills have private workout scheduled with WR Troy Franklin
Beck Water replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall
I look at it as sort of the standardized college admission test equivalent (ACT/SAT) - though those are falling out of favor due to flaws. But in theory, the idea of them was to provide college admissions offices with an apples-to-apples way to compare a kid from a huge highschool who was in the top 1/4 of his class, with a top-5 kid from a class of 100. I mean, we have fantastic athletes at all levels of competition, with all levels of quality in their teammates. The combine (in theory) is a chance to see them all together performing the same tests under the same conditions of altitude, field, etc. and provide an apples-to-apples metric. So in theory, it has value. In practice, it has flaws too.