Beck Water

So lemme get this straight. You're saying that the Texans would trade something of significant value (to make up for the cap hit we'd take) for Diggs (age 30, 13th in receiving yards), in order to pay Diggs $18.5M this year, $18 next year, and $19M in 2026, because they still have Collins (age 24, 8th in receiving yards) on a cheap contract through 2024 and they might have to franchise tag him (last year WR franchise tag was $19.7M) if they can't reach agreement on a deal? So the Texans may not want to go to the draft for a top WR because you have to hit the pick correctly, but the Bills (who lack the cap $$ to sign a top FA) should trade away Diggs and put themselves in a position where they absolutely MUST go to the draft and hit the pick correctly? Make it make sense

2022 off-season: Baker: "No, Coach, I don't suck. I didn't suck in 2020 when the team went 11-5, won a playoff game, and I threw 26 TD and 8 INT. I'm playing hurt - because you asked me to take one for the team and play hurt in 2021." Stefanski: "The organization has decided to make an upgrade, we're trading you to Carolina and signing a real franchise guy, Deshaun Watson" Baker: "FML" 2024 off-season: Baker: "Hi Coach, I started 17 games, 28 TD, 10 picks, 64% completions, 238 ypg this past season in Tampa. Playoff win, and I'm hungry to come back and show I can do better. How are you liking your upgrade? 12 games started in 2 years, 59.8% completions, 14 TD and 9 INT, and 185 ypg must make your life sweet as a coach." Stefanski: "FML" You thought that because he HAS been mediocre for most of the 12 starts in 2 years he had with the Browns. He's shown occasional flashes of the QB he was back in 2020 - something like 3 games (of 12) where Browns fans got their hopes up - but that's all he's shown so far.

In TBN, there's an article about this. Jay Skurski interviewed him while he was walking from interview to interview. Apparently, in between, Subway was filming advertisements with Josh, so I expect Subway minions were following him around with Subway tube refills and carrying the tube for him. To this, I'm like: "Josh, Seriously?" The man has earned $113M from the Bills so far. He's got $30M in new cash due this season ($23.5M of which fully guaranteed last year) and $39M next season, with $99M dead cap hit in '24 and $54.6M dead cap hit in '25. He has no reason to be there grinding through interviews and filming advertisements for Subway unless he wants to do that.

Josh has talked about this. While he started working with Jordan Palmer before the draft in 2018 and Palmer did help with the over-striding and some issues, Allen still struggled with touch throws and accuracy on short passes. He was throwing with his arm and shoulder, only. His accuracy really improved when he re-worked his throwing motion with the help of a company called Biometrek and its founder, Chris Hess. Here's a good article about that process https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/01/24/Technology/josh-allen-embraces-technology-to-transform-himself-from-loose-cannon-to-maybe-a-3d-mvp.aspx I could be totally wrong, but I have the feeling that Josh is a little disenchanted with Jordan Palmer. Allen elevated Palmer's business for developing QB. Allen seems like a very private person, and he may not be too thrilled with the extent Palmer has spoken about him and sometimes it seems, for him, in the media. I'm pretty sure Allen will go back to Chris Hess at Biometrex. He may or may not choose to work with Palmer and that's OK, provided he's working with Hess on his mechanics and with someone who can record him and help him implement during throwing sessions, and with someone who can help him improve his field vision and decision making (I'm not sure Palmer is that guy). What I think is promising is that the last two off-seasons, Josh has understandably talked about needing some time to rest and re-set, and somewhat proudly (I thought) talked about how little he did until OTAs (where he was unclear about whether he was talking about initial OTAs in March or minicamp in June). This year, he is talking about how he wants to get "back in the lab" and work with guys off season. He also talked about how he needs to improve his decision making and how he sees the field. Josh's track record is that when he sets his mind to something as a goal he needs to achieve, he does. So I feel positive that he's talking about mechanics and decision making.

2:58:50 Got a link? NvM, I do:

Agreed, but when is it?

I see what you did there

I can't think of a situation where the player agrees to convert bonus money he has already been paid back to salary so that it can be transferred to the new team I could be mistaken on this point, but I also think it's not allowed for a trade partner to repay the trading team for bonus money. We have had trades where the trading team agrees to take on part of the guaranteed salary, or where the player even agrees to a salary cut (this happened with Case Keenum I believe?) or a renegotiated future contract as part of the trade - But that's different than the player handing back bonuses he's already been paid, or the trade partner repaying the trading team for money they've already paid. But I'd be happy to learn about this way, tell me more?

With that trade, the Bills, who are already $51.8M over the cap, need to come up with an extra $3.24M of cap space to make the trade, AND replace Diggs on the roster.

If Diggs wants to know about Houston and the Texans organization, why wouldn't he reach out to 2023 Texans RB Devin Singletary and 2023 Texans DE Jerry Hughes, both former teammates he must know well, especially Singletary? Not to mention Case Keenum? The Texans do have a lot of cap space. They also have 28 free agents, some of whom they undoubtedly want to keep.

You are not mistaken. People have all sorts of notions like "trade him after June 1", ignoring the fact that Diggs $18.5M salary guarantees early in March so the Bills would have to 1) have the cap space to carry Diggs $27.35 cap hit until after June 1 2) find a trade partner who still has $18.5M cap space available after June 1 3) what would they receive in trade? Can't be a 2024 draft pick, June 1 is after the draft

This harkens back to an interview Beane had at one point, talking about drafting a QB. He expressed that before they drafted Josh, they had discussions about drafting QBs around the league and what factors govern whether they succeed or fail. Apparently there are a lot of team factors that are correlated with a high draft pick failing - such as turnover in the coaching staff and OC positions, the makeup of the QB room, off-field and off-season support. Mayfield had different HC and OC's his first 3 years in the league. Part of that was arguably "on him" supposedly lobbying for Kitchens as HC, but also on the Browns if they listened to their QB lobbying. Then, under Stefanski, he showed he could play capably in his system. He then played hurt the next season, but rather than rewarding that dedication, the Browns traded him off to a sucky team in favor of pursuing a Bright Shiny Toy with a cloud of personal tarnish. Said Toy has rewarded the Browns for his big payday by playing 12 out of 34 games for them in the last two seasons and not looking very good when he did. It still seems "Browns gotta Brown". In this year's episode, Alex Van Pelt nursed the offense to an 11-5 record with Watson playing 6 out of the first 9 games and an unholy gamish of 5th round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker, and Joe "Revenant" Flacco only to get his ass unceremoniously fired in favor of fired Bills OC Ken Dorsey - meanwhile Stefanski was calling the plays all season, including their 45-14 drubbing by the Texans in which the defense gave up 356 yds.....meanwhile Jim Schwartz still has a job and was just honored as "Offensive Coach of the Year". Make it make sense! If the reports on the other thread about Diggs getting on Allen relentlessly in the locker room for 'perceived mistakes' is true (not to mention Diggs yelling at Allen on the sideline), Allen would be within rights to "channel his inner #######" a bit and tell Diggs to sit down and shut up, and when he's on the field catch the damned ball when it's thrown to him.

I'm coming from a place of not knowing Diggs or anyone in his camp at all, but my sense of him from the outside (for whatever it's worth) is that he may be a guy who is just not emotionally well regulated. So he has a lot of emotions build up inside him - pressure to perform, unhappiness at how he's being utilized in the offensive scheme, unhappiness at not being seen and targeted when he's open, unhappiness at being targeted sometimes when it's a high degree of difficulty catch - but he might not be able to put those feelings in the perspective of what you point out as positives - "I have one of the best QB throwing to me and the chance to build a super-strong and trusting relationship with him" "I'm on a football team which is a strong organization with quality coaching" - sort them into "things I can control" "things I can influence" "things beyond my control", and focus on the former. So I think he may just have emotions building up, and they come out in whatever direction he can think of at the time, if that makes sense. Sort of the football equivalent of Joaquin Anduhar in the '85 world series where he was ejected and destroyed a toilet in the Royals clubhouse? One thing I felt was very positive this season was hearing Sherfield and Diggs both talking about "outcome neutral performance". Sherfield talked about how he came in believing that if he did X and Y as far as training, nutrition, etc - he would "earn" playing time and targets, but he realized that isn't true - he can do everything right and he still might not get the playing time or the targets, so he tries to focus on preparing the best he can and playing the best he can, and not worrying about the outcome. I also heard Diggs actually acknowledging that there are other guys in the WR room who are working their butts off and not having things work out for them as they hoped (Harty saw 13% of offensive snaps, Sherfield 33%). That was a first for anything I've heard from him. I don't know if that's the influence of new-for-2023 WR coach Adam Henry, or possibly a sports psychologist - but I think it was about the first time I've heard Diggs publicly acknowledge that there are other people on the team who aren't getting what they want.

I mean, they're kind of groomed for it, right? Since grade school, most of these guys were the unbelievable athlete that carried their peewee and HS team to victory, then their college team. Depending on where they go to school and live, they may have been getting special treatment for it - police let them off with a warning, teachers give them a pass. And the WR and DB positions especially require a guy with a large and sturdy ego, because everything they do is visible. Then, they take a lot of hard hits, especially to the head.

I saw my best friend's neighbor's parrot 🦜 walker at the bird park yesterday and he told me Sherfield is a free agent in 2024 and Harty has a cap hit of $5.57M but a dead cap of only $1.375M, making him a prime cut target for a team $51.8M over the cap. Even if you believe "a guy at the gym" knows Sherfield and Harty, has talked to them, and they shared that Diggs "100% wants out", why would you believe a FA and a likely cut target would be plugged in to the inner workings of Buffalo's front office more than Joe on the street? And what would be their connection to Houston's FO? Beane and the Bills FO are a byword with the "NFL insiders" for living by "loose lips sink ships" and not telegraphing their moves. So while I don't disbelieve your guy at the gym story, I respectfully don't think it's too credible. Thanks for getting back to this, anyway! 'Preciate.

So this is an interesting question. Where and when did Diggs say Josh is his brother? Allen says that about Josh. I have not heard Diggs say that about Allen. Diggs said that? Can you point me at where/when?

The Bills may release Tre'. But this is not a situation the concept of an NFL "Injury settlement" applies to. An "injury settlement" is when a young player, typically with a "split" (a different salary if he is injured vs not injured) is placed on IR during the season, but feels he has the ability to play that season and would like to try to catch on with another team. The team he is signed to and his agents negotiate the expected recovery time for his injury (let's say it's a high ankle sprain, and they agree on an 8 week recovery period. The player is released with 8 weeks of his IR salary (plus medical care and rehab), and can sign with any other team as soon as he's cleared to play.

Just a point on the 'youth wave' Captains last season: https://www.buffalobills.com/news/bills-select-eight-players-as-the-2023-captains Gabe Davis Stefon Diggs Josh Allen Jordan Poyer Micah Hyde Von Miller Tyler Matakevich Mitch Morse Of those 8, Josh Allen and the under-performing, over-paid Diggs and Miller are the only three fairly certain to be back (the latter 2 due to excessive dead cap) I would like to see Morse back, but he has an $11.5M cap hit with $3M of dead money and will be 32. He has a $1M roster bonus due 3/17. I would like to see Poyer back, but he has a $7.6M cap hit with $2M of dead money and will be 33. Davis, Hyde, and Matakevich are all pending free agents and likely to be gone.

OK apologies in advance if this is boundary pushing, please feel free to tell me to "stand down". Someone in the Buffalo press corps, or maybe it was Cover1, commented that with regard to Allen and Diggs "the Bro-mance is definitely over". Publicly, Josh is still very consistent and strong in support of Diggs: "that's my brother" "competitor" "he understands we can't force the ball to him". Publicly, Diggs is NOT strong in support of Allen. Any insight there? It wasn't training camp, it was optional "organized team activities", and then there was that weirdness where Adisa Bakari (Diggs agent) said he was given permission to leave by McDermott after discussions with McDermott and Beane regarding some issue he had. I'm not defending Diggs - I think it's a very bad look when a team captain storms out of the building or refuses to talk to the press. I am pointing out if people are still defending Diggs, it's because the picture has been muddled and there isn't definitive information out there (not to be interpreted as an attempt to get you to "spill the tea", just a point that there isn't spilt tea)

Found this from Pro Football Network (generally reliable about procedures and so forth): The trade may have been made earlier, and PROCESSED after June 1, but you can't trade a player, transfer liability for his March bonuses and so forth to his new club, and then designate the trade post-June 1 like you can when you cut a player

Thanks! I really appreciate the insight into the thoughts behind what you hear vs. what you feel like you can share. I do agree completely that unconfirmed stories (especially if inflammatory) aren't the best food for quality discussion here. I have heard from another source that "Diggs is a problem", but again, with no details. Just a note that Diggs performance pretty well fell off the last 7 (8) games of last season as well. Do you have any insight you can share into why the performance dropped off? Cumulative dings? Checking out? Other?

Why? Just curious. I am sure you have reasons, I just always wonder what's up when we get some of these "I could if I would but I won't" type cryptic comments (John Wawrow is somewhat notable for them) I could be mistaken, but to my understanding the only time one can post-date a roster move is with a CUT. Not a trade. A CUT. And when one does post-date a cut to after June 1, the cap relief only takes place after June 1st.

I think you should put down the pipe. The problem is that the Bills badly need to re-stock at Safety and DL as well as at WR. And their premier pathway to do that with the cap situation, is through the draft. Throwing all-in with our draft picks for a WR when we have needs across the board, is probably not gonna be good enough. The other problem is you seldom know who that truly great WR in the draft is gonna be. The 2018 first round was good for QB - and the best QBs were the 3rd and 5th QBs drafted. The best WR in the 2023 1st round were the 3rd and 4th WR drafted. But arguably the best WR in the draft was taken at the end of the 5th round (Puka Nacua) , and the 2nd best was the 3rd WR drafted in the 2nd round (I think, the 7th WR drafted overall).

?? have not heard this story

IK,R? I mean, Dorsey could have said many appropriate "joining team with this guy as QB" things which did not draw "seriously, have you been living under a rock?" raised eyebrows like this. "I'm looking forward to working with Deshaun Watson, he's shown the capabilities to be one of the premier QB in this league and I'm eager to get to know him personally and brainstorm how to make this a great offense" or something.