Beck Water

I’m not “carrying a Bone” for Cover1’s objectivity - I have my own set of concerns with some of their analysis. But to the bolded point - the reason Diggs’ contract is “unmoveable” for the next couple of years has to do with the impact of 3-4 years of signing, option, and restructure bonuses accelerating onto this year’s cap if he’s released - not because Digg’s contract is prohibitive to potential trade partners. Diggs is due to get $18M in salary for the next couple years. He’s like 13th in receiving yards and 10th in 1st downs, Paying him what the trade partner would be on the hook for ($18M for the next 3 years) would slot him in about 15th - 17th in the league, which makes him a reasonable value for money. A team with a rookie QB and a lot of cap space could find that attractive. The trade partner could restructure this year’s salary if they wished. By the same token, in objective metrics a guy who is 8th in receptions/game, 13th in receiving yards, and 10th in 1st downs is by a number of objective metrics a #1 WR in this league and still has value. He’s also very valuable to the Bills because he’s still far and away the best WR on the team, especially during the regular season. Seems like a strange criterion to dis off Cover1 for

Um Hello, three years ago Tampa won the Super Bowl with Tom Brady, Two years ago they went 13-3 with him. Last year he was dregs, but in 2020 and 2021 Baker couldn’t tie Brady’s shoelaces or carry his jock.

So different teams/GMs have different strategies and sometimes it works, sometimes not. For example, Denver has developed a pattern of trying to “buy greatness” at QB. They managed it with Peyton Manning on the shoulders of a fantastic defense, but with Russ Wilson it fizzled. Beane and McDermott have been trying to “buy greatness” at Edge/DL and WR, because our attempts to develop it have been “good not great” (AJE, Rousseau, and Basham at Edge, Harrison Phillips at DT, Zay Jones, Gabe Davis, and Khalil Shakir at WR) The intrinsic problem with that is Old Bodies with a lot of football miles on them, don’t hold up through a long season as well as young bodies. And if they try to save themselves by taking themselves out for breathers or taking plays off, well, that gets to be a habit. Then you’re paying them to be great, but they’re good. Double whammy. Could the Bills make cap room for Evans, I’m sure, but they’d for sure be giving up talent in other areas to do that, and then See Above on the intrinsic problem.

According to the convo Mayfield had with ?Steve Young? Off set, Mayfield expected to be signed. So it may be the Bucs low-balled him (according to Mayfield’s price point) or, Mayfield wanted a vet starter contract and the Bucs said “OK, go out and see what you can get”. I don’t know that I agree with that

Really good post. I do “buy it” that the Covid cap reduction threw.a bit of a wrench into Beane’s plans, but it’s also worth noting that Beane is not above deflecting responsibility. When he arrived here, he pointed fingers at the previous FO for having lots of FA and a high cap on underperformers. But, they also had enough talent to get the Bills to the playoffs that year, even with Beane fire-sale ing a couple of players. And today, we have a high cap on underperformers and lots of FA. His comment about not sucking badly enough to draft Ja’Marr Chase when asked about the Bengals WR talent was also, IMO, highly disingenuous. Now the excuse is the Covid cap. You nailed the bottom line - Beane used a number of high draft picks on OL and DL that did not pan out, so he backfilled with FA and more draft picks. In addition to Cody Ford and Boogie Basham you could add Harrison Phillips and at positions, you could add RB - Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in back to back drafts then another pick on James Cook. This is not to dunk on Beane as a talent evaluator, because a lot of draft picks just plain don’t turn out to be NFL level and all of those guys (maybe except for Basham) can actually play in the league, and maybe how they’re used and talent development has something to do with it. But it’s not just “oh the Covid cap blew us up, woe is me!” It’s that Beane took some moon shots in signing Von Miller and last year Leonard Floyd then the Rasul Douglas trade. The higher cap would be nice

I don’t think Floyd wanted to be extended, at least not at any price the Bills were willing to offer him. Floyd signed a 1-year “prove it” deal with the Rams after he was cut by Da Bears, then signed a 4 year, $64M deal with the Rams, helped them win a Super Bowl, played decently again in 2022, and was cut with 2 years left on his contract and something like $42M paid out. He signed with the Bills at what he regarded as a 30% discount to his last 1 year “prove it” contract of $10M with the Rams, and he undoubtedly wanted a multi-year deal, probably north of $10M/yr (his last 4 year was $16M/year and he earned $21M in 2 years)

Yeah, before/when Beane and McDermott arrived local Buffalo press (Tim Graham etc) pretty much threw Whaley “under the bus” for how few drafted players were still on the Bills team and Beane threw the previous admin under the bus for the cap and FA situation. Well, many of the players Whaley drafted and the Bills moved on from (Stephon Gilmore, Ronald Darby, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Shaq Lawson, even practice squad late round picks like Jonathan Williams and Kevon Seymore) were still playing in the league last year, some for very good teams (Dallas, Ravens, Houston, Browns, Shaq back with the Bills, Seymore with the Ravens PS). Others are out of the league now, but contributed to other teams for several years after the Bills moved on (Ragland, G John Miller, Preston Brown, Russ Cockrell). It’s not like they couldn’t play football. And our FA and cap situation are if anything, worse than they were in 2017 The difference is that back then, the best we had to show for it was a #4 overall defense and no playoffs. Now we have playoff wins the last 4 seasons and consistently top-10 offense and defense, usually top 5. I enjoy that a heck of a lot more than the drought years, I get it to some that’s not good enough because from a championship we are still falling short. Anyway, Beane has been quietly mortgaging the Bills cap situation with signing FA using void years since 2020, because his draft picks haven’t quite cut the mustard. It will be interesting to see how he manages this season, the most challenging for him I think because so many of our top paid players aren’t living up to their contracts and it’s a very good question whether that can change (Diggs, Von Miller, Tre White)

No, as far as I’m aware the void years stay void even if we re-sign him to a new contract, so the dead money stays dead.

I agree Tre is one of the trickiest decisions facing the team. I'm really curious where you're getting ACL takes 18 full months of recovery but Achilles is 8 months. I don't think that matches data on actual RTP time

The physical Tre has to pass isn't to show he has returned to form. His Achilles injury has to have healed, that's all. He doesn't have to have completed rehab to maximal performance. The timeline for healing up and being able to walk post Achilles surgery is about 3 months. Tre should be there in early March. And teams write contracts so that bonuses get paid 5 days into the new league year for just this reason - so they can bring players in, give them a physical, and say "OK, your injury has healed".

Your last sentence is an interesting point. I go back and forth on this. On the one hand, in 2021 after Tre was injured, we won 4 games with Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson playing CB and the two we lost (the wind tunnel NE game and the OT loss to Tampa) were arguably more gaps in run D than coverage. One could make an argument that McD's defense has been able to plug-n-play CBs and not miss a beat (Dane Jackson, Christian Benford, etc). Some people have said that we run a very CB friendly scheme. But then I have to ask whether having a 2020/early 2021 level Tre White would have made a difference in the 13 second game or in this year's playoff loss to KC where we were starting a hampered Rasul Douglas and Dane Jackson at CB. L'Jairus Sneed has become a true shutdown corner and McDuffie is also high grade and that clearly made a difference in all KC's playoff games this season and the Championship. So clearly at some point and against the best teams, the quality of the DBs does make a difference. To your first point: after an Achilles tear, it's not Tre's mind I'm so worried about. It's objectively a hard injury to return from. One study says 57% RTP, with a decrease in performance noted especially for defensive players. That was 2010 to 2016, so medicine and rehab do improve all the time and hopefully it's better now. Apparently there are all sorts of objective metrics that decrease (the downward force the athlete can exert to jump or plant or change direction for example. Thanks for the kind words, I'm glad you found it useful. It would not shock me if the Bills cut Tre because they assess him as not being able to return at a high level. It would not shock me if they kept him, either. I think there's a significant chance of either, and only the people working with Tre on his rehab really know.

This seems to represent a misunderstanding of what an injury settlement is, and how it is used. An injury settlement is something a team reaches, usually with a young player on a 1 year contract or a multi year contract without much in the way of bonuses or guaranteed money. Such players often have a "split" in their contract, where they're paid less per game while they're on IR. So, if that player is on IR and unlikely to be brought back, but thinks they will be healed and ready to play before the season is over, it may be in that player's interest to get cut and try to catch on with another team. Since the team can't, by CBA, release an injured player, the "injury settlement" is the solution. The team and the player's rep negotiate the number of weeks the injury is expected to take to heal, the team pays the player for that number of weeks, and the player is released and is free to negotiate with other teams. There's nothing in Tre White's situation that makes an injury settlement applicable. He should be considered healed from his actual Achilles rupture and repair. Whether that allows him to play at a pre-injury level, is a different question, but the Bills can cut him AFAIK. Tre White has $10.3M in dead cap for the Bills, which represents signing, option, and restructure bonus money already paid to him. The only circumstance I know of under which teams get any of that money back, is if a player under contract retires - and that, usually only if the player retires before he's played a significant amount after signing the contract, otherwise they file a grievance and apparently often win. The money is currently amortized over 2024 and 2025, the two remaining years on Tre's contract. He is due $10.4M of new cash, in the form of relatively small workout and roster bonuses, a $1.5M roster bonus due early in the new league year, and $10.5M of cash - none of which is guaranteed. When you add in his bonuses, that gives him a cap hit of $16.4 M this year. The Bills can cut him. They can also re-negotiate the cash he is due, and incentivize to allow him to re-earn it. Tre might prefer to play for a lesser amount of money here, than to be cut and have to fight for a chance to prove he can return from the Achilles, I don't know. But that won't be an injury settlement.

Yet. No homicide or assault charges yet. From the article you link: "additional charges are expected"

That too, plus the decision to charge his parents. But I believe his name came out well before the charging decisions. The teacher who took a photo of his drawing, the admins who called his parents in for a conference earlier that day, and the parents of his fellow students were not bound to confidentiality, and spoke to the press. The juvenile justice system is bound to confidentiality

I'll save you the trouble of thinking about the difference between maintaining confidentiality when a fellow student, well known to many of his fellow students teachers and school admins, commits a heinous act vs. two juveniles who were likely anonymous to the people around them (and protected by "snitches get stitches" to those who do know them) Nice username by the way.

Apologies if I missed it in scanning through the debates here, but 10 people shot is low. 22 people hurt 9 children shot among the 11 children injured and treated at Children's Mercy. All expected to recover 8 adult gunshot patients, two in critical condition Death is 44 yr old local DJ, married mother of 2 Some sources say 21 shot so may be some more treated elsewhere or treated and released

They're juveniles. "Ton of prior arrests including felonies" does not seem likely. https://abcnews.go.com/US/mass-shooting-kansas-city-chiefs-super-bowl-celebration-investigation/story?id=107254077 They haven't been publicly named/identified because they are juveniles. The third suspect was determined to not be involved and was released. There may have been others involved, that's being looked at.

"Unintentionally back stabbing n hurting Spence" I mean, sometimes bad things do happen unintentionally. You start gesticulating as you talk at a party and unintentionally knock over a glass of wine, or a vase. You step back and unintentionally bump into someone You're trying to be quiet late at night and unintentionally step on the dog in the dark hallway, causing Rover to ruckus How do you "unintentionally" type something on twitter about a teammate (that is hurtful) and hit "enter" to publish it? I mean, seriously? Weak, Mongo. Weak.

Um....are you saying that like it's a good thing?

I'd really like to have a backup I have some confidence could actually present a bit of a threat of a passing game. I have little confidence in Kyle Allen, and less in Mitch Trubisky after seeing him here and with the Steelers. With the Steelers especially he was just baaaad. Needs a brain?

You do know that if the 49ers hadn't muffed a punt on their own 16 yd line, or if McCloud had just fallen on the damned ball instead of trying to pick it up, we would likely be having a very different discussion today? How did Shanahan cause that? Then, the blocked extra point. How did Shanahan cause the kicker to kick it low enough to be blocked? Look, X's and O's matter. But when you have two very good teams playing each other, the Jimmies and the Joes also matter. Reid had some calls that I thought weren't the best either. Bottom line, San Francisco committed more unforced errors, including one that gift-wrapped a TD for KC. I'm ordinarily a big one for saying that you can't change one play, but that fumble on the SF 16 yd line was a game changer for sure. It didn't help Shanahan to lose Greenlaw and go down to their 3rd string RG, either. I'm not trying to make excuses - KC played well and won the game. My point is that when two very good teams play, the media narrative will invariably paint the winners as the genius dynasty and the losers as bumblers. But under the hood, it will often turn on a few key plays - that muffed punt fumble; an injury or two; not being prepared to stop Mahomes runs at the end of the game; etc

Exactly! How did you know?!

You ought to frequent a better class of forum then. That’s baloney. Under the old OT rules, if the first team to possess scored a FG, the other team got the ball and a chance to score. The new overtime rule did not apply today. So indeed, that other forum you were on made this stuff up.

Not just directed at you, but I get a bit frustrated at people who don't learn the basics about how NFL contracts are structured and how they work with regard to the cap in the case of a trade or cut. So they say something like this, and other people "like" or agree with them. There is no way that I know of (and I have tried to learn about this) to decrease Diggs cap hit to the Bills in the case of a trade. Diggs cap hit this season is $27.9M. Of that cap hit, 2/3 is Diggs salary of $18.4M, which is not guaranteed until 5 days into the new league year in March. The salary would go to the trade partner, although there have been deals where the trading team agrees to pay part of the salary. BUT the Bills cap hit from Diggs would INCREASE not decrease if Diggs were traded. This is because teams are allowed to pro-rate or amortize up-front bonus payments over the length of the contract (and even beyond it, by adding on "void years"). This is money Diggs has already been paid up-front, and per the collective bargaining agreement he can not be asked to return any part of it to the Bills, (unless he retires). It all accelerates into 2024 if he is traded or cut, totalling $31.1M. The Bills could trade Diggs post-June 1, and divide his cap hit into $8.85M of amortized bonus payments due this year, and $22.25M due next season. BUT, that would mean the Bills must account for all $27.9 of Digg's cap until after June 1, AND his $18.5M salary would guarantee - so if the trade partner backed out or Diggs didn't pass their physical, the Bills would owe it all. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/stefon-diggs-16872/

Diggs contract isn’t that bad to a trade partner. It slots him in about 15-17 in average value. But yeah. that’s not the performance you trade a 1st for either