Beck Water

I'd just like to point out that tactically, part of "red zone success" is creating realistic uncertainty in the mind of the opposing defense: "will this be a run play or a pass play?" There was a point in 2022 where the Bills dipped to one of the lowest success % in the league in the red zone, and several people who break down plays pointed out "they need to run enough for a run play to be a credible threat there". The Bills started running more, and rZ success % improved. Why is that relevant to Kincaid's red-zone use? Well, because of he isn't yet technically sound as an in-line or 2nd level run blocker (he can block effectively downfield when it's more like "momentarily get in the way"), defenses are more inclined to accept a run play as a credible threat when the TE is Knox or when there's a fullback (Gilliam) on the field. And while Kincaid does run good routes, they aren't yet as polished and precise as some of the WR. If Kincaid levels up his blocking a bit and also polishes up his route running, I'm sure he'll get more RZ targets.

This is not to disparage Mahomes in any way. But ask yourself why you accept the version of reality you see in a documentary, as the totality of Pat Mahomes life? With 3 SB rings, KC is indeed the standard that other teams are chasing. And I have no doubt that Mahomes works hard. On the other hand, there are some facts: -Mahomes has a golf handicap of 8 (7.7 to be exact). How did he improve his golf game to the point of having a handicap of 7.7 if "every moment of his week" is working on getting better" as a quarterback? [for comparison, Josh Allen has a golf handicap of 9; maybe Mahomes is working harder at golf than Allen is?] -Mahomes is a part-owner of the KC Royals MLB team. I'm sure he has a management team, but he must spend at least a few minutes on the regular absorbing their high level summaries and giving decision-making input -Mahomes and his wife Brittany are co-owners of the NWSL Kansas City Current professional soccer team - again, while he probably hires a team to manage it, he must spend a few moments meeting with his management to be kept current (ha! see what I did?) and make decisions on some issues. He attends games with his wife -Mahomes has a number of commercial endorsements - we see him in commercials all the time. Reviewing the concepts and the terms of the deals, then actually filming the commercials and watching the edited version/approving it has to take a few moments. Again, I'm not trying to disparage the effort Mahomes puts in, but I am pointing out that you're uncritically accepting a vision of Mahomes presented in a film he and his team undoubtedly negotiated for some form of content control before agreeing to appear, even when there is evidence out there that "every moment of his week" narrative probably isn't the full picture.

OK, where was he in Y/R? Because the real question with Y/R is "depending on how the guy's being used, how much of what's there is he getting?" A number of the TE ahead of Kincaid were being used as "big wide recievers" and/or had higher YBC as well, because they were being thrown to more downfield, instead of as Kincaid was used most of the season very close to the LOS.

Core strength can be built in many ways without olympic power lifting. I know we got guys here who are personal trainers and really into this stuff, hopefully they will speak up. I will also say there's a big difference between having a "dad bod" like Kelce does and "not spending much time in the weight room". Being "cut" is a lot about having low body fat percentage. NFL linemen on both sides will say you can be strong AF and not cut because it's covered with a nice fat cushion. OK, last point: Gabe Davis is not very big, but a very effective blocker. I have been told that a lot of blocking is in the head before the ball is snapped, and then in technique and leverage afterwards. Anyone who watched FredEx just TEAKETTLE JJ Watt in his prime or Jordan Poyer throw an OLman 3 feet backwards on one of the Bills "guess who is blitzing?" packages should probably get this.

If Kincaid showed a weakness in YAC, why are YAC 46% of his receiving yards? Yes, running backs are better at running (including running after the catch) that's why they're running backs.

So by many metrics, the Buffalo Bills have had an excellent offense. Rank 3, 2, and 6 on points for 21, 22, and 23 respectively. But looking at "who had the fewest punts?" is probably NOT a sufficient metric for looking at whether the Bills have a "chain moving" problem, especially when the goal the Bills are seeking isn't "top offense" but "Championship" Other metrics that should be considered: -# of FG vs TD (eg are drives stalling out due to failure to get a 1D?) -# of turnovers In 2023, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills actually attempted the 3rd fewest FG (49ers and Lions had fewer) So that's not a factor. However, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills had the 2nd most turnovers - 28. (That's #7 for turnovers, overall) Five of those offenses had 9 or 10 or more fewer turnovers. Only the #10 scoring offense (the Browns) had more. Three of the offenses with fewer turnovers (Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens) ranked above the Bills for scoring. You might say "that's a ball security/decision making problem, not a chain-moving problem", but I would argue that it's related: some of the 'bad decisions' or putting the ball at risk that result in turnovers, result from getting into 3rd and long and trying to force the ball, which is a form of chain-moving problem. The Bills had the same turnovers in 2022 when we had the #2 scoring offense, but in 2021, when Beasley was still here, we had 22 turnovers and were 17th in the league, and in 2020 when the Bills had the Diggs, Brown, Beasley trio, we also had 22 turnovers and Josh had 10 INT vs. 18 INT in 2023. So I do think there might be something to the notion that "having a reliable outlet he trusts to move the chains" has been a gap. TL;DR Number of punts alone is not a good metric for whether or not the Bills have a chain-moving problem.

The thing is, this guy was starting the back half of the season for Washington after they..... traded away both their starting DE. So that was really his first opportunity to play extended snaps. I actually thought he had discipline to maintain gap integrity and defended the run better than I was expecting from his draft scouting report. That's not a big surprise to me. For one thing, when a guy is rotating in, he can let 'er rip; he doesn't have to maintain that level for the whole game. For another, after the starters were traded off, it was backups both sides and IIRC they had at least one backup starting on DL as well. It helps with sacks if the QB is scared of the guy on the other side or feeling pressure up the middle. Anyway as a rotational/backup piece, signed for probably a vet minimum contract with a bit of a signing bonus, I like him better than I thought A difference maker on game day, not very likely

I noticed he had a number of first downs where he lowered his shoulder and/or used his legs as he fell, to get the first. There was also that heads-up play on the Diggs fumble where he swatted the ball OOB - we took a penalty, but we didn't risk a turnover, smart IMO

Beautifully, and with a frank, direct expression. Can't think of a time I've lied here, but I have been mistaken at times.

I don't think it stems from the Elam situation. I think it stems from fan frustration with players who weren't really pulling their weight (example: McKenzie as a slot receiver) and having seen a few flashes from Shakir, feeling he was so much better and it was just the coaches being stupid to not play him, instead of observing his drop rate and his low catch % and apparent route running mistakes and having a little faith that the coaches, professionals, might actually make better decisions than we fans.

At the pro days, do you know if the teams get to meet with the players? Or is it just watch them work out?

I think Kurt Warner did a dissection of that play where he would disagree with you there. He's just in the HOF so I guess, what does he know? I don't think it's a clear cut "undisciplined mistake that got him beat", either, though. I think the decision is more nuanced. And Josh's response to questions indicated that he saw his failure on the play as not getting "good pocket movement" in the pocket he had, to be able to set up and throw accurately to Shakir for a TD. Kurt Warner has on multiple occasions acknowledged that Josh Allen can physically do things he couldn't do, so the decision making is different. Warner (and Brady, TBH) made his bag and earned his gold jacket by being able to read defenses instantly and choose the throw with the greatest chance of success (this isn't the same as taking the throw with the highest completion percentage, which might not have the highest success percentage of getting the first down). Josh Allen can create a throw with a higher success probability by going "off schedule" and extending a play. It's a blessing. And he's steeped in that killer instinct: "Brett Favre said Touchdowns First, Coach!". But it's also a curse. Sometimes it's a better decision to take that crosser to Diggs for the first, move the chains, keep the ball, and gain more chances to score. And Warner has openly said that he doesn't know how you coach or channel someone like Josh, who has those capabilities to create and extend that very few other QB have, into seeing the field differently and making different decisions. The reason I can't get all "fluffed up" about whether Josh Allen is hitting the weight room and throwing with his receivers on March 4th and March 20th or April 1st or whenever, is because that's not where I see him as needing to take the biggest steps. McDermott has said it: where Josh needs to improve, is in Decision Making. And not just decision making in shorts and a red t-shirt, whether on a practice field or watching film: decision making in the heat of it on the field with 315 lb behemoths looking to flatten him like a buuuuug and his adrenaline kicked up 100x. I don't know how you simulate that in practice. I'm not sure that Jordan Palmer is the right guy to help Allen here. It's not like his other notable QB pupils, like Sam Darnold, are lighting the world on fire with their brilliant field vision and decision making. I do think Brian Daboll had the right combination of "carrots and sticks" to get into Allen's head and motivate him to watch film and push his decision making. I think whatever approach Dorsey was trying as OC, which may have involved treating Allen like the tablet in his Miami Meltdown, kind of backfired. But what approach Allen is taking in the off season, that's where he needs to go. He didn't say "training camp" though. OTAs start mid to late April.

To be fair, a lot of media pundits were "all over" talking to Josh during and after his "sea change" in completion % from 59% in 2019 to 69% in 2020. That kind of improvement was regarded as pretty much unprecedented, and coupled with a passing yards jump from 3089 to 4544, both Josh Allen and Jordan Palmer were highly in demand to talk about "what happened?" "howdja duit?" I think Allen recognized he had a media obligation and obliged, but while he's backslid some from the completion %, the overall improvement has remained, so it's really no longer a story. It's clear it wasn't a flash in the pan, and now several other QBs have made similar improvements (and several have not). I could be wrong, but I also think that at heart, Josh is really a private person and would just as soon have the media butt out and stay out of his off season. I think (and I have no substantiation about this) he's had some tension with Jordan Palmer, partly because Jordan was speaking about (and sometimes for) Josh, A Lot, on his media circuit (including in at least one instance on their QB podcast something Josh clearly wasn't down to talk about because it didn't sound great). It wouldn't surprise me if Josh went looking for another QB guru who was willing to work with him quietly and not use him as a free ride to promote himself and his biz. Now whether that's true, and whether whoever he's found is as good, better, not as good, same as Palmer - can't tell you.

Good to know! Well.... there was a "take" of 9-108-9 (that was serious - another joked 'in the playoffs"). There were a couple of takes of about or less than 300 yds - 312, 297, 230 along with 26, 32, and 28 receptions. And another similar take of 35-375-2. Some of them were troll takes, but a couple were, I think, just based on supposedly McDermott "holds back" rookies and stubbornly refuses to play them even when they're fantasmagorical. Which I don't think is true - with a good team, rookies play when they play well enough to displace the veteran ahead of them, not just for the sake of putting them out there and getting them snaps. Then of course there were some serious, but outlandish takes on the high side in addition to a couple of jokesters. And, I learned what the stats functions are called and how to sort data in Libreoffice, so I got what I came for.

You are correct! Damn, I hated that London game. They had us play on crappy turf over cement, with no fill, and we had injuries in droves. Not really. Meaning no offense, but is there a reason I should want to know?

They must have really felt Van Demark came on as a swing tackle. We seem pretty thin there to me as well. Our starting OLmen hung amazingly tough last year. The OLman who missed the most snaps last season (knock wood!) was Dion Dawkins - who still played >96% of the snaps! Morse played 97%. We should be as lucky this season, so I agree we need to invest.

Do you know what they think about Kevin Jarvis? He's listed on some sites as an OT, but Draft Diamonds had this to say about him and the Bills have him listed as a G: https://nfldraftdiamonds.com/2022/04/kevin-jarvis/

Quality player. But 34, missed 4 games last season and 13 games the season before. Hasn't played more than 13 games of a season since.....2015? So that's LT, who's the rest of the line?

Knox did miss 5 games and was arguably playing hampered in a couple where he did take snaps. But, for the games Knox played, his R/G and Y/G were career lows. And, in his 5 year career, Knox has never broken 50 receptions or 600 yds per season.

I don't think Gunner provided an actual quote. The interpretation is correct and consistent with what Allen has said - Jordan said Allen had "mastery of his stroke" and didn't have to work on his throwing mechanics as much, and Allen has said he doesn't start working out like OTAs right after the season ends. That doesn't mean he doesn't work or (as he said after the season) doesn't see a need to work. [to clarify, after this past season, Allen said he needed to work on his throwing motion with "appropriate people" because injuries had gotten it off kilter during the season] It was a podcast with Jordan Palmer and Kyle Allen. You could Google. I think they call it "the QB Room". It was long and contained a lot of rambling and nonsense, so I'm not inclined to search for or transcribe it. This isn't a court of law. But to have a meaningful discussion, there really needs to be a start from a foundation of actual solid information. And what we have here is people taking snippets and sentences from entertainment-type "shooting the bull" podcasts and creating a House of Cards inference about how hard Allen works and whether it's more or less hard than he worked as a rookie. Which, even if he does less early on in the off season or works differently due to rehabbing his elbow or shoulder or what have you, doesn't mean he doesn't work as hard in the aggregate. I really shouldn't have to lay that out in terms of specifics to working adults. With that, and meaning no offense, I'm out of here; I think I've made my point about as well as I can about the pustulant nature of trying to have a comparative discussion about something we really all know very little about (his off-season work, how much he does, what, and when; and how it compares to previous years). I believe I've also made my point about as well as I can that this does not equate to objecting to any critique of Josh Allen or to placing him above reproach, but for goodness sake, can we do it in some manner which begins with known facts, like in game performance?

I do appreciate the kind words, but I also posted data, so it's more correctly "according to the data".

Who is the Jets OL though? Who have they added there?

Could you expand a little bit on this? I'm not a Nathaniel Hackett fan, but he did have two outstanding years with Rodgers in Green Bay. Of course, that was with 37 year old Rodgers, not the 41 year old "post Achilles" version, and he legit had outstanding talent at RB and WR with Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. I really like Garrett Wilson, but Jets paying $12M to Allen Lazard and signing Mike Williams, Not Same Thing. I like Breece Hall, too, but he's no Aaron Jones.

Does Alabama have any good WR? Serious question....

311/673, #mathforall Of guys with >20 receptions, James Cook was unsurprisingly the best YAC man, which of course, is what you expect from an RB. 89% YAC. Of the receivers, Shakir also had 46% of his YAC, 7.2 Y/R. Knox was similar to Kincaid in Y/R and had a slightly higher percentage (but only 22 receptions to Kincaid's 73)