Beck Water

Right on. And here's the thing, they need to be prepared to take a couple of shots on goal to get one in, not necessarily with 2 high draft picks this year, but 1 high and 1 later this year then 1 high and one later next year as well. We drafted RBs in the 3rd or 2nd round 3 years in a row, after all.

I looked at his twitter trying to find it and couldn't, but I think it was something like "take a pay cut" or "give back some of your money" or something. Here's the point from a business perspective: the guys on the Bills who did take a pay cut, Von and Knox, were guys whose performance this past season was objectively far below where they were paid, making them poor ROI. They also had little or no guaranteed salary. So it made sense to both sides: the team gets some cap relief, the player gets incentives he can "bet on himself" to achieve, and the player gets future guarantees. Diggs, on the other hand, can construct an argument that he's still a top-10 WR in the league and maybe has fallen off a bit from where he's paid, but not much. And, if he just sat tight, his salary fully guaranteed on the 5th day of the new league year. So the Bills really don't have a great case, or much leverage, for asking him to take a pay cut. And, most of his unpalatable cap hit is previous restructures, and money already paid to him as option or restructure bonuses. He ain't taking money he's already been paid out of his bank account to give to the Bills, and even if the NFLPA allowed this (don't think they do) it would be ridiculous business practice for the Bills to ask an employee to return contracted $$ they've already been paid. I don't think the Bills offered to restructure Diggs salary to bonuses, thus pushing cap hit into their future plans. They usually, AFAIK, don't need the players' permission for that type of restructure since it doesn't change their yearly renumeration at all. I agree with whoever said it - might have been @GunnerBill, or @BarleyNY - I think the Bills NOT restructuring Diggs salary is a sign his time in B'lo is winding down. Might be 2025, might be 2026, but they will move on.

The best way to look up air yards vs yac I know: pro-football-reference pick yer guy (Josh Allen) scroll down to "Advanced Passing" "Air Yards" tab. You want CAY/comp (completed air yards per completion) and YAC/comp. What you see there is a bit of a muddled picture, but to the point about deep threat - we can see that between 2021 and 2022 (when I would argue the Bills receiver corps fell off in quality), there was actually an INCREASE in CAY/comp from 6.5 to 7.5 y/a suggesting Josh was going for the deep shot instead of the short and intermediate routes that were Beasley's bread-n-butter. A full ypa jump is likely significant. We can see CAY/comp plummeted this past season to 6.1, while YAC rose to its best value since Allen's rookie year - probably on the heels of Kincaid emerging as a reliable short-yardage target with decent YAC, Cook emerging as a short target with significant YAC abilities, and Shakir showing some YAC chops - while Davis and Diggs and Josh just couldn't seem to get on the same page deep. I don't think the Bills offered Diggs a restructure with more cash up front for more security later in his contract.

The Bills got Diggs by giving up a #1 pick, a future draft #4, and taking on a big salary since Diggs had already signed a 5 year, $72M contract extension 2 years before the Bills traded for him. That's the valid point people who argued against the move (especially in hindsight, after the Vikes got Jefferson who turned out to be arguably better): we traded the opportunity to get a good WR on a cost-controlled rookie contract, for getting a vet WR who was the #1 hit on our cap the day we acquired him (before our QB got paid). [The valid counter-point is that the Bills and Allen benefited by bringing a well-developed route technician into the WR room, to help level-up the other WR and boost Allen's development. Some truth there]

Good post. Allen was actually 4th, not leading the league in completion % in 2020, but that's a nit. He had 69% completion % with 8 y/a, and I would lobby that Diggs/Sanders-Davis/Beasley in 2021 was also pretty good: while Allen's completion percentage declined, and passing yardage went from 5th to 8th, that represented a drop of 137 yds over a 17 game season, or 8 ypg. And some could argue Diggs decline from #1 WR in the league with a 76.6% catch % played a role. For 2022 the fall-off in terms of passing yards was double - 261 yds - and the Int% starting to climb. This past season, while Allen's completion percentage climbed from 63% to 66%, his Int% was almost twice what it was in 2020, 3.1% vs 1.7%. Some would say that's on Allen, and I'm sure some of it is, but it's also on WR not getting the same separation, or reading the defense and choosing the correct option, and then Allen getting impatient and trying to force things to happen. So while we aren't exactly talking a 'sea change' from top-3 passing offense to top-8 or 9 passing offense, that kind of drop is significant for a team with Championship as the goal. So yeah - Beane and the Bills Brain Trust felt that Davis was ready to step up and achieve something close to his 2020 Colts playoff or 2021 KC division round performance, on the regular. They were mistaken. They felt that McKenzie was ready to step up and go as a platoon with Crowder in the slot. Crowder got injured, and they were mistaken on that point too. Mistakes happen to all teams and all FOs - took the Chiefs what, 3 shots at a WR in the 2nd round to land one who looks promising? and there's Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st. But you don't hit the shot you don't take. Time for the Bills to shoot their shot at WR. I don't think that's really the question. In my mind, we're not trying to replace Diggs, we're trying to draft a guy who can give us a 1-2 punch WITH Diggs, and who has the potential to develop as a future #1 (not to walk in the door and hit it).

I agree with you that there is a possibility Beane will choose to use another 1st round pick on defense, and fans better be ready. I don't agree the Bills think they filled the "hole" at WR with Samuel. They have 2 holes and they know it - at slot, and at X. They filled the slot/flex hole with Samuel. They still need to replace, hopefully upgrade, on Gabe Davis at X and hopefully start grooming a Diggs replacement. I think the fact that they didn't restructure Diggs when that would have been an easy cap move, says they are looking to the day when they move on, which means they better start taking shots at his replacement now in case the first shot doesn't work out. As for Hollins, it's pretty clear to most people that Hollins is our Kumerow/Sherfield STer who can fill in at WR as a backup/blocker. It's been explained to you, too. No, the Bills don't see Hollins as filling their hole at WR.

I don't think of it as we need to "draft a Diggs replacement" in this draft per se in this draft, but this may be a matter of semantics. I 100% believe we need to try to draft the best WR prospect we can get at our draft position or a reasonable maneuver. The way I see it, offenses work better when they have two very good to elite WR. Davis racked up 200 yds in the 2021 division round because the Chiefs were scared of Diggs and covered him like a blanket. That proved to be somewhat of a 1-off occurrence rather than a steady diet, and Diggs doesn't elicit the same fear these days. Then of course, there's the ever-present "what if he gets hurt?" I thought Milano was the "indispensible man" on D, but to their credit the Bills made a combination of Poyer and Dodson work in his stead. We need to have some option for Diggs - another WR who can step up and be that #1, at least on some of the snaps even if he's platooning with Samuel or Shakir. So I 100% see the need for another good to elite WR to pair with Diggs who will hopefully grow into a #1 role, whether that's next year or 2 years from now. We need to be able to rely on WR help we get in the draft, not signing FA at a very pricy position.

You're correct. Teller can not play center, and Bates can.

I mean, maybe? and guys can develop since the draft, or have a bad day at the draft. But Bates had an RAS of 9.57. According to Joe Marino (linked above by @Watching since 1964), Clapp has an RAS of 3.74 which is.....not good. Until seen otherwise, I'm going to go with "We know Rick Bates. And Will Clapp is no Rick Bates".

It makes more sense to me after I learned about the Joe Brady/New Orleans overlap. He must have seen something he liked - potential, work ethic, locker room character, all three. It makes me feel better that they have a guy who has played center in the NFL last seaon on the roster now: McGovern took 0 snaps there last season. In this Athletic article McGovern talked about how different Kromer's blocking technique (jump-set) was from what he did with the Cowboys. Do you know anything about the blocking techniques the Chargers OL uses? I hope you're right that they're not done, but what they add I guess depends upon how they assess the potential in Anderson and Kevin Jarvis, IMHO drafting a tackle may be equally or more important; we only have Van Demark as our swing tackle at the moment, yes? And I believe he came into the season never having played LT? So that's a big gap to me.

In 2020, in our 3 playoff games he had 20 receptions for 311 yds. 2 games >100 yds. In 2021, he had 3 receptions for 60 yds vs NE, but that was the game where KC swung coverage to Diggs so hard that Gabe Davis went off for 200 yds and 4 TDs. 2022, 7 receptions for 114 yds vs Miami 2023, 7 receptions for 52 yds but we seem to have been using him on shorter passes towards the end of the season. I think it's notable in both 2022 and 2023, his contributions seemed to fall off in the 2nd half of the season, whether due to cumulative dings and dangs that wore him down or ??

Chris Jones. 5 year, $158M contract, $95M guaranteed. It's not a big hit on their cap this season cuz he gets his $30M signing bonus amortized and vet min salary, but next year it's $34.85M

It's hard to move a player on a 1 yr contract for significant draft capital It's hard to move a star player whose contract is $19.8M fully guaranteed for significant draft capital Sneed is on a 1 year contract for $19.8M fully guaranteed, so.....

Durrrr if the coaches thought Edwards was a better LG than McGovern......wait for it....they would have started him at LG

Clapp started 11 games for the Chargers last year, but it looks as though he got injured his previous game and DNP against us. Edit: looked it up, he was on IR actually. Knee injury but couldn't find details about what it was. Joe Brady was apparently an offensive assistant with the Saints when Clapp was drafted (7th round)

How do you feel about this? 6 year veteran....he started 11 games for the Chargers last season, but I thought they had kind of a sucky OL I wouldn't pretend to know enough to have an opinion.

I think we could probably manage to get up to 20 if we want. But keep in mind we don't have a 3rd round pick because we traded it for Rasul Douglas. I don't think 2 4ths has the same cachet, so it might cost us our 2nd rounder.

"No" on the chicken dinner. On the JAGs, maybe you should. Dawson Knox just took a $6.5M salary cut in exchange for future guarantees That took him from being the #5 paid TE in average value, right behind Kittle and Kelsey, to being maybe 17 or 18 in average value this season. This past season, he was something like 37th in receiving YPG. Now I don't think Knox is "JAG", but since football is a game of results, those are in fact "JAG" numbers, and those plus the salary haircut don't argue "dude other teams want to give up first round draft capital for. I'm not sure who you meant by Jackson, if you meant Dane, he's a FA and has already signed with the Panthers. Oh, Geesh now I'm shaking since Beane was involved in drafting Fat Kelvin.

I'd just like to point out that tactically, part of "red zone success" is creating realistic uncertainty in the mind of the opposing defense: "will this be a run play or a pass play?" There was a point in 2022 where the Bills dipped to one of the lowest success % in the league in the red zone, and several people who break down plays pointed out "they need to run enough for a run play to be a credible threat there". The Bills started running more, and rZ success % improved. Why is that relevant to Kincaid's red-zone use? Well, because of he isn't yet technically sound as an in-line or 2nd level run blocker (he can block effectively downfield when it's more like "momentarily get in the way"), defenses are more inclined to accept a run play as a credible threat when the TE is Knox or when there's a fullback (Gilliam) on the field. And while Kincaid does run good routes, they aren't yet as polished and precise as some of the WR. If Kincaid levels up his blocking a bit and also polishes up his route running, I'm sure he'll get more RZ targets.

This is not to disparage Mahomes in any way. But ask yourself why you accept the version of reality you see in a documentary, as the totality of Pat Mahomes life? With 3 SB rings, KC is indeed the standard that other teams are chasing. And I have no doubt that Mahomes works hard. On the other hand, there are some facts: -Mahomes has a golf handicap of 8 (7.7 to be exact). How did he improve his golf game to the point of having a handicap of 7.7 if "every moment of his week" is working on getting better" as a quarterback? [for comparison, Josh Allen has a golf handicap of 9; maybe Mahomes is working harder at golf than Allen is?] -Mahomes is a part-owner of the KC Royals MLB team. I'm sure he has a management team, but he must spend at least a few minutes on the regular absorbing their high level summaries and giving decision-making input -Mahomes and his wife Brittany are co-owners of the NWSL Kansas City Current professional soccer team - again, while he probably hires a team to manage it, he must spend a few moments meeting with his management to be kept current (ha! see what I did?) and make decisions on some issues. He attends games with his wife -Mahomes has a number of commercial endorsements - we see him in commercials all the time. Reviewing the concepts and the terms of the deals, then actually filming the commercials and watching the edited version/approving it has to take a few moments. Again, I'm not trying to disparage the effort Mahomes puts in, but I am pointing out that you're uncritically accepting a vision of Mahomes presented in a film he and his team undoubtedly negotiated for some form of content control before agreeing to appear, even when there is evidence out there that "every moment of his week" narrative probably isn't the full picture.

OK, where was he in Y/R? Because the real question with Y/R is "depending on how the guy's being used, how much of what's there is he getting?" A number of the TE ahead of Kincaid were being used as "big wide recievers" and/or had higher YBC as well, because they were being thrown to more downfield, instead of as Kincaid was used most of the season very close to the LOS.

Core strength can be built in many ways without olympic power lifting. I know we got guys here who are personal trainers and really into this stuff, hopefully they will speak up. I will also say there's a big difference between having a "dad bod" like Kelce does and "not spending much time in the weight room". Being "cut" is a lot about having low body fat percentage. NFL linemen on both sides will say you can be strong AF and not cut because it's covered with a nice fat cushion. OK, last point: Gabe Davis is not very big, but a very effective blocker. I have been told that a lot of blocking is in the head before the ball is snapped, and then in technique and leverage afterwards. Anyone who watched FredEx just TEAKETTLE JJ Watt in his prime or Jordan Poyer throw an OLman 3 feet backwards on one of the Bills "guess who is blitzing?" packages should probably get this.

If Kincaid showed a weakness in YAC, why are YAC 46% of his receiving yards? Yes, running backs are better at running (including running after the catch) that's why they're running backs.

So by many metrics, the Buffalo Bills have had an excellent offense. Rank 3, 2, and 6 on points for 21, 22, and 23 respectively. But looking at "who had the fewest punts?" is probably NOT a sufficient metric for looking at whether the Bills have a "chain moving" problem, especially when the goal the Bills are seeking isn't "top offense" but "Championship" Other metrics that should be considered: -# of FG vs TD (eg are drives stalling out due to failure to get a 1D?) -# of turnovers In 2023, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills actually attempted the 3rd fewest FG (49ers and Lions had fewer) So that's not a factor. However, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills had the 2nd most turnovers - 28. (That's #7 for turnovers, overall) Five of those offenses had 9 or 10 or more fewer turnovers. Only the #10 scoring offense (the Browns) had more. Three of the offenses with fewer turnovers (Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens) ranked above the Bills for scoring. You might say "that's a ball security/decision making problem, not a chain-moving problem", but I would argue that it's related: some of the 'bad decisions' or putting the ball at risk that result in turnovers, result from getting into 3rd and long and trying to force the ball, which is a form of chain-moving problem. The Bills had the same turnovers in 2022 when we had the #2 scoring offense, but in 2021, when Beasley was still here, we had 22 turnovers and were 17th in the league, and in 2020 when the Bills had the Diggs, Brown, Beasley trio, we also had 22 turnovers and Josh had 10 INT vs. 18 INT in 2023. So I do think there might be something to the notion that "having a reliable outlet he trusts to move the chains" has been a gap. TL;DR Number of punts alone is not a good metric for whether or not the Bills have a chain-moving problem.

The thing is, this guy was starting the back half of the season for Washington after they..... traded away both their starting DE. So that was really his first opportunity to play extended snaps. I actually thought he had discipline to maintain gap integrity and defended the run better than I was expecting from his draft scouting report. That's not a big surprise to me. For one thing, when a guy is rotating in, he can let 'er rip; he doesn't have to maintain that level for the whole game. For another, after the starters were traded off, it was backups both sides and IIRC they had at least one backup starting on DL as well. It helps with sacks if the QB is scared of the guy on the other side or feeling pressure up the middle. Anyway as a rotational/backup piece, signed for probably a vet minimum contract with a bit of a signing bonus, I like him better than I thought A difference maker on game day, not very likely