Beck Water

I would love to be a fly on the wall and know whether that was the plan all along, dating from the post-season player performance review, or if something else has happened. One example of this kind of long term thinking would be when the Bills moved on from Marcell Dareus. There the Bills were, 6 games into the 2017 season. It was obvious that McDermott and Beane were not long-term fans, but he was playing. He'd missed a game when injured, came back, was back up to 57% of the snaps and seemed (to me) to make a difference in gap integrity on run defense. They'd inherited him on a 6 year, $60 million contract extension signed in 2015, so they were on Year 3 of it. All of a sudden, he was off to Jax for a conditional 6th that turned into a 5th round pick while the Bills ate a chunk of dead cap. He played all season for Jax AND arguably helped them beat us in the playoffs (yeah, he had 4 tackles, but that wasn't his job). Beane and McDermott even alluded after the season that McDermott had not necessarily agreed with the decision to trade Dareus when we did - it didn't make our defense better - but "understood the reasoning" after they talked.

Um, no. The Bills would have paid $27M for Diggs on the roster, and then if they cut him next off season, an additional $23M. That's a total of $50M This way, the Bills pay $31M. So they could have kept Diggs, at the cost of an additional $19M against the cap over the next 2 years. The more realistic question is, "is Diggs ROI still worth an extra $19M total over 2 years AND having an extra $23M on the cap next year if we part ways?" Clearly the Bills answer to that question was "Nope!"

There you have it.

I agree, of course, that Von Miller is not a good comparison. The only stats Diggs was top 7 in were targets and receptions. Top 13? Receptions/G 9th. 10th in 1D. 12th in TD. 13th in total yards. But "Every receiving category"? Bzzzt. Y/G? 17th. Y/R? 67th Y/T? 69th Catch %? 111th. Success %? 48th. YBC? 15th YAC? 31st Passer rating when targeted? 111th. Of 29 receivers with >1000 yds, he was 23 in drop % and 25th in broken tackles. I'm not trying to say Diggs was horrid, but he was getting paid like a top-5 WR, and his performance, viewed from that lens, wasn't good ROI. On the other hand, for the Texans as maybe the 18th paid WR, he slots in as reasonable ROI if he has a similar season. I think the best logic that's been used on this deal is the chap who pointed out what other, comparable age and performance WR received in trade - which was....wait for it...comparable.

Wow. I think both are probably true to some extent - I don't know that Diggs decline was from his character, but it's a fact that in Denver loss, Diggs played 98% of the snaps and had 3 receptions on 5 targets...for 34 yds. The Jets, 80% of the snaps and even worse, 4 receptions on 8 targets for 27 yds. Philly loss, 6 of 11 for 74 yds, 92% of the snaps. After that, his snap counts were cut back. At the time I thought, they were trying to nurse Diggs through an injury, and maybe they were, who knows? But the bottom line is, other guys got more snaps (who that was, varied from game to game) and the Bills won, without so much contribution from Diggs (or Davis).

This past season, Diggs was NOT getting open against physical man coverage by top CBs like Sneed. It was notable. Give him Kader Kohou and he'd eat him for brunch, of course. In previous seasons, IIRC I read that the Bills were one of the bottom teams for % man because they ate it alive. They didn't even see that much man 2022 IIRC - McKenzie could eat man. I believe I saw this year the Bills faced one of the highest % man coverage. Why? Because they couldn't exploit it.

Pretty much. She was forced to walk it back and grovel, but at the time she said it no one was caught on a hot mic saying "oh, Hey now, that's not how I see it".

Kelce, fair point. McLaurin "seeming to give up"??? Money, yeah, it's business, players will be about the money, that's their side of the business. But going for money, and going "Antonio Brown", are different beasts.

Thanks for all this. Just a little nit, the pick swap is next year's 2nd that Houston received indirectly from the Vikings, but the trade-back is this year's 6th and NEXT YEAR'S 5th (which is considered equivalent to a 6th round pick this year). I kind of wonder if uncertainty about Tank Dell's recovery from his broken leg plays into this - if he's not 100% early in the season, they can put him on a snap count or even IR him and expect more from Diggs, but if Diggs does the mid-season vanishing he's done for the last 2 seasons, Dell should be up to speed and they can cut Diggs snaps, then move on the following year if he beefs. I frankly thought in his presser, Beane seemed a bit nervous and defensive, with good reason. He acknowledged that the team isn't as good right now after the trade: "This is by no means the Bills giving up or trying to take a step back or anything like that. Everything we do, we're trying to win, and we're going to continue to do that. It's April the 3rd, and we'll continue to work on this roster and make sure we're ready to play come September" "I mean, are we better today? Probably not," Beane admitted. "It's a work in progress, and we're going to continue to work on that. I just hope people know I'm competitive as hell, and I ain't giving in, we're going to work through this and continue to look and I'm confident in guys on the roster, and confident in the staff we have upstairs that helps me, that we'll continue to find pieces to add, and we'll be ready to roll when it comes time in September." Did someone on NFL network really express something like "not have to worry about an aging cancerous boat anchor"? Wow if so, Just Wow - do you remember who might have said that?

1929 yds, but what's 71 yds between friends? But let's look at it a bit differently. Dorsey was fired after the Bills fell to 5-5 vs the Broncos. They then went on a 7-1 streak with 1 overtime loss to the Eagles. During that stretch of the season, which featured gameplans and play calling from the same OC we will have next year, Diggs and Davis together contributed a total of 627 yds, plus 73 yds in 2 playoff games. Diggs contributed 1 TD, Davis contributed 2 - including playoffs. Elsewhere, you have been beating the drum loud and repetitively about how Diggs fell off in the 2nd half of the season, comparing him to all sorts of lower tier WR we could have signed for much less. Given that, it's really something to turn coat and gloom-and-doom because the Bills have moved on from two guys who contributed 3 TDs (including in 2 playoff games) and 627 yds over a 7-1 streak. My position all along has been that the whole season counts when assessing a guy's contributions, but C'Mon Man, don't act like Diggs is Chopped Liver in one thread and then tear your hair and smear ashes about after he's traded. It's a valid point that Beane, McDermott, and Joe Brady may have looked at that 7-1 win streak under Brady as OC and said "we can do without 627 yds and 3 TDs contribution".

You raise some good points here, especially the compensation factor.

I'd just like to point out the 10 best receivers in football last season (yds) were Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St Brown, Puka Nacua, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, and Amari Cooper. Jefferson fell to 19th overall because he missed time, but was second in Y/G. Hill is in a class by himself, but if he ***** about not "getting his bag" because Waddle, I haven't heard about it. What Diva-like behavior have Lamb, St Brown, Nacua, and AJ Brown exhibited? Moore? Aiyuk? Evans? Cooper? Jefferson? 2022: Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Brown, Diggs, Lamb, Kelce, Davonte Smith, Terry McLaurin. Again, aside from Hill and Diggs, what Diva-like behavior has been heard about or observed from Jefferson, Adams, Brown, Lamb, Kelce, Davonte Smith, McLaurin?

Just a little note that asking for approval (implying that Josh needs to sign off on the move, or has a hard veto) is different from asking for input. I'm pretty sure Josh doesn't have a veto or need to approve the move. I'm also pretty sure if Josh gave his input that "I really think Stef and I have great days ahead of us next year - we've been talking once or twice a week, he's planning to meet up and throw with me this month and again in May after OTAs, I really think we're good now!" that would have been weighted heavily. But I don't think that was his input.

Is James Jones that 3rd guy on "Speak"? 'Cuz yeah, I thought that part was interesting. I haven't heard it elsewhere. He may not be wrong. Since the OT loss to Philly which left the Bills at 6-6, Diggs had one game where he was a significant contributor to the passing game. Davis had 2. During the 6 game W streak including the Pitts playoff game: Diggs 4/24, 4/48, 5/29, 4/26, 7/87, 7/52 and the KC loss 3/21 including a fumble, a drop, and a catchable long ball he missed. Davis 0, 2/56,0,4/105,0,0,4/130, 2/21, 0, inactive, inactive. So Davis had 2 games where he contributed at a "#1 ish" level and 6 games where he didn't, which is one more game than Diggs had at a "#1 ish" level. Pundits are all "whoaoa, that's a lot of receiver yards leaving the building" but maybe, after the last half of the season, the Bills don't see it that way. It may be different, because they were "Slime" and Diggs (like Beasley) was a big part of Josh's development, if that makes sense? Like, you take being dissed off differently from a co-worker you have professional relationship only, vs. from someone you've "let in" as a friend? Diggs may also be "chirpy'er" or different in how far he takes it, IDK. Or you may be right, and it may be an issue with Josh that he has to "get over".

You allude to a good point "when the Bills were likely done spending big money in free agency anyway" I would make a bet that the timing of the trade is, in fact, driven by Beane looking at the available players he could sign or make small trades for, and deciding "OK, I'm done here, so at this point it won't hurt us to take on that extra $3M dead cap." And part of why it looks bad, I'm sure, is that the Bills have Diggs valued as a #1 WR (and are paying him as such), but the rest of the league is saying "Nuh Uh, Not This Boy, Not at This Time." So in making the trade, the Bills are for sure saying "OK, Rest of the League, we hear you, and we'd rather have his roster spot than try to persuade you you're wrong in how you see him next season". When did Shady say "Diggs would be going to Houston"? Beane said this particular trade all came up this week, so if Shady knew earlier, that's significant. If he knew this week, Meh. The thought that the Bills would make a bad value trade within the conference to give Diggs something he wants, does not pass the "sniff test" to me. I think there's an element of "Falling Cat" here - you know, where your cat falls off the table awkwardly, lands on his feet, and then stalks off regally with an "I MEANT to do that" air.

I think this guy Taylor has it: I think the Bills are trading Diggs sooner than they planned to, and for less than they hoped to get - the rest of the league may see him as Cosell calls it, from tape, "not a #1 WR, a good WR". The Bills probably made a mistake re-structuring Diggs when they did, and they're eating more than they should in dead cap as a consequence, but not every decision a GM makes can be right.

I actually think it may take pressure off Allen. -In the talk piece I linked with Shady et al, one of the hosts (Acho?) made a big point of the pressure it puts on a QB when you have a top receiver demanding the ball, that it can influence the play calling and the QB's decision making. Shady disagreed. But it's a point: Josh has said he's a bit of a "people pleaser". Are some of the times when Josh was forcing the ball to Stef or to Gabe with poor results, influenced by his desire to "get them their bag"? Did it influence play selection? Was Diggs "don't listen to him" (referring to Dorsey) because Josh was trying to follow progressions and not look to Diggs first? -Josh has said he doesn't like to "be an #######" and "call people out" about performance. IF it's true that Diggs was "going off" on Josh not only on the sidelines but in the locker room and sometimes practice to the point where it was detrimental to the team, does it take confliction away from Josh if he doesn't have that in his face and need to make that decision? Or was that "in his face" actually helping Josh? Maybe it helped initially in 2020 and 2021, but now it's a weight on him? -It's been notable to me when Josh has talked about new receivers coming in, he's repeatedly mentioned "works hard, doesn't complain". Now Diggs has always been noted for working hard. But maybe there's been a lot of complaining, and that's been Josh's indirect way of calling that out (and not getting through) I don't think Diggs preferences on where he wanted to go were given any weight whatsoever. Why would you think so? I also don't think Diggs wanting out was given too much weight. I think the "wanting" was on the side of the Bills brass and possibly Josh. I do think there may have been a precipitating factor that made the Bills willing to move on at a fire sale price. Maybe Allen asked Diggs to "get in the lab" with him and Diggs declined to do so. Maybe the Bills gave Diggs a rehab or a conditioning program and it's been clear he hasn't been following it - Beane specifically mentioned "fashion" and "he's back working out now". Coaches can't talk football to players, but they can call to check in or for social reasons, maybe there were 'relationship building' calls that were swatted down. I personally think the Bills have been fishing for the right balance as well as the right talent in the WR room since Beasley and Brown then Sanders left. In hindsight, I think moving on from Chad Hall and McKenzie last season while bringing in new WR in Hardy and Sherfield AND a new WR coach, may have been an attempt to change the energy in the room as well as to upgrade (the upgrade obviously failed). Chad Hall was notably buddies with his WR and Diggs praised him to the skies. If Diggs had a 'tude, maybe Hall wasn't willing to get in Diggs grill. McKenzie was the guy who talked to Diggs on the phone after 13 seconds. Maybe they felt he'd become a buddy and enabler of Diggs 'tude so "bye Felicia". In film clips of '23 minicamp after Diggs showed up, that any time Diggs and Allen were talking the WR coach was RIGHT THERE, to the point that I remarked on it. I do think that Allen could have "gone to the mat" to keep Diggs and that would have had a lot of weight, but I don't think he did. McCoy and company pulled no punches and made no bones about Allen and Diggs relationship: "it's bad". I think Morse is another guy where the Bills made a decision to move on a year early rather than a year late. But you're right about the leadership and Beane acknowledged as much. You shouldn't be surprised. Beane's MO is that he only restructures as needed to make moves. So if Beane feels he can make a good trade for someone, he won't hesitate, but he also won't do it until just before he needs it. I honestly think Beane and his scouts analysis of the WR quality will drive this. It's notable that the 1st year contribution of last year's WR was: 1. 5th round Puka Nacua 2. 2nd round Rashee Rice 3. 1st round Jordan Addison Addison was the 4th WR taken in the 1st. Rice was the 3rd WR taken in the 2nd, and the 7th WR overall. If I'm counting right, Nacua was #20. (Obviously there's a stroke of luck there.) Keep in mind Allen was the 3rd QB drafted. My point is that Beane and Co trust their personnel evaluation. They'll move up if they think it's critical, but they're more likely to be strategic about it than others think, because there is that "crap shoot" element to the draft.

It's interesting. Cosell was very clear and concise; he thinks Diggs is on the decline, he thinks Diggs isn't a "true #1", he's good but not elite. I don't think the Bills paid Cosell off for that opinion because 1) I think Cosell cares about his cred more than $ 2) he's said similar things before. On the other hand, we have this: where they clearly slot Diggs in ahead of Nico Collins as a #1 WR and then this: where the guys are all talking about Diggs as a "freakazoid" talent, and referring to Collins as not a true #1. (they said every team has about 3 freakazoids, and if you don't have enough freakazoids, you're gonna lose. they said SF has 6 or 7) "I am only an egg" relative to these guys, but what I saw of Nico Collins last year I really liked, and his Y/Tgt last season, 12, argues more boundary guy. McCoy and all know ball, but Cosell knows his tape, so I don't know. Maybe the former ballers have a bit of "halo effect" based on the Diggs of 2 years ago whereas Cosell is meticulously focused on what he sees? By the way McCoy and others (Emmanuel Acho I think? not sure who is the 3rd guy) were very clear with the woman host (Joy Taylor?) that Josh Allen's relationship with Stefon Diggs is "bad". She didn't want to theorize what it's like other than what we see, but they were very definite.

21 to 12 for trading Glenn, who had been a starting LT before injury in 2017 Look, I'm pretty stupified that all the Bills got for Diggs was essentially a 3rd round pick (2nd round, next year). My first reaction was "Holy Crap, the Texans stole him!" But from what OBL and some others here have been saying, the Bills were trying hard to move Diggs for some time, and next year's second (like a 3rd this year) was their best offer. What I'm saying is according to the best offer the Bills actually got, that wouldn't have been sufficient to go from 28 to 17. Yes, we could have. How common are post June 1 trades? They're after the draft and FA; they're after OTAs start. I honestly don't know, I'm asking. My guess is strategically, that wasn't something Beane wanted to do.

Actually, you got it exactly. I've explained before, I'll recap: An NFL contract consists of two parts - -bonuses (signing etc), which are paid to the player up front but broken into chunks corresponding to the years of the contract for cap purposes. -yearly cash, which is the salary plus any workout and per-game roster bonuses. Salary is pai d per-game. A "capology" tool, is that salary can be renegotiated into a vet minimum salary, plus a renegotiation bonus that is then split into chunks. So when the player is traded, the new team becomes responsible for the yearly cash due the player for the remaining contract But the trading team has already paid out the bonus money, so that doesn't go with the trade. The trading team doesn't have any years of remaining contract after the trade, so the chunks all get summed and fall into the trade year's cap. The point Cosell made was that from his POV as a tape watcher who is not employed by the Bills, Diggs is not at this point a #1 WR who is worth that kind trade value. See transcript up-thread. See post by Virgil for pick values. Edit: here Rd #1 pick 17 is valued at 950; 28 is valued at 660. Difference of 290 pts, which is a low 2nd round pick of this year. The Bills got a 2nd round pick in 2025, which is usually equated to a 3rd round pick this year - so around 180 points - AND tossed in this year and next year 5th (6th this year), both valued at about 10 points. So maybe we got about 160 points in trade value for Diggs? We would have had to give them something more, if the value charts are correct and that's how they valued Diggs. To get that 1st pick swap, we might have had to toss in both our 4th round picks or something

I put a bunch of time into transcribing the Cosell interview on OBL. Fundamentally, Cosell's take seems to be that he was not (what Cosell calls) a #1 WR in terms of Cold Hard Football Facts driven by watching tape at this time, and was not going to be able to live up to his contract with the Bills. And Cosell's take is, that's what other teams see when they value him in a trade -a 30+, declining possession receiver. There may have been stuff that happened within the building that was a factor, but I think it would be a naive take to view his social media posts as pivotal or even significant contributions to the decision to trade him. Stuff like being a Captain but huffing out of the building after a playoff loss and refusing to talk to the media, may have contributed. Stuff we don't know about, may very well have contributed. Now if I were Diggs, I'd be sleeping with a transcript of what Cosell said under my pillow and reading it before every workout and every game, letting it fire me up and seeing what I could do to make him munch his words.

Factually, Diggs was #7 in receptions and #6 in targets this past season. #10 in TD and 1D. But in terms of Y/G, falls to #17 and Y/R falls to #67.

I didn't see this linked anywhere. Greg Cosell on One Bills Live discussing the Diggs trade. For those hiding under a rock and unfamiliar with Cosell, he has a long time history with NFL Films and is very well regarded as a film analyst. He is not a clickbait seeker or a server of "hot takes"; others may differ but everything he says is based on what he sees on film, and what he says is usually worth listening to. Nor is he a paid employee of the Bills like Brown and Tasker and Capaccio, what he says is what he sees - it may be tactful, he isn't coming on a Bills show and saying rude things, but he lets his opinion fly. Brown: (discuss Bills cap situation, taking on extra cap) What does it say to you? Cosell: Well, Number 1, it tells you they were anxious to make the trade and get rid of Stefon Diggs. I'm not in the building, I can't speak to the why. Number 2, it tells you that there was not a big market FOR him, because this trade didn't just come about in 5 minutes. I'm sure there have been numerous conversations over probably a meaningful amount of time and there was not a big market. Now, I hope fans are interested in tape reality vs. emotion, because the tape reality tells you that Stefon Diggs is not a #1 WR in the league. He might have been on the Bills, but he's not a #1 receiver in the way we think about #1 receivers, the guys who really are. So you're talking about a 30 year old declining player, who is not a #1. That's essentially what the tape tells you that Stefon Diggs is. Now I'm sure there's a lot of raw emotion right now for Buffalo fans 'cuz it just happened, but that's the reality of the tape. Brown: Let's dig into that a little bit more, Greg. What do you see on tape, that shows you a, quote 'declining player' at least from being an alpha male #1 on the roster? Cosell: I don't think he's a fully dimensional receiver at this point in his career. He's not a true vertical dimension, now, that doesn't mean you can never catch a vertical ball, I want people to understand that. There's a lot of guys in the league that you wouldn't call vertical receivers, who do catch "go" balls or posts. But he's not a fully dimensional receiver, for want of a better term, he's much more of a possession-type receiver at this point in his career. Now he's still very very good at that, that's his game, and I think that's ultimately what he is. You have to remember, he's not going to a team where he's going to be the #1 receiver. He helps that team a lot, because they have Nico Collins who is a true boundary X #1 receiver, and on the Bills, Stefon Diggs, just by dint of elimination, was their #1. But I think they're looking to get a true #1, now we'll see what happens in the draft. And we'll see if they have something in mind with a trade...or whatever they feel, we won't know the answer certainly in the next 24 or 48 hours. But I think they just felt, he's 30 years old, he's declining, it's time to move on. Let's move on from Diggs. Tasker: One of the things we discussed as well, with a guy like Diggs, he's certainly not going to fall off a cliff. His production** and his targets were there, even when he wasn't being as productive in the second half of last year as he was in the first half, But, this deal, like you said, there's a couple things about it. One, it smacks of letting Diggs move on a year earlier rather than a year late. And the financial stuff notwithstanding, the money's already been paid to Diggs that's on the cap, it's not like they're going to throw any more money to him. And it would be hard for him to live up to the contract that he had already signed. Cosell: He's probably, at this point in his career - I think he's going to be 31 during the season - I don't think he's going to get another big money deal at this point in his career. Look, we know that Houston is a team that is going to have a good passing game, he's probably not going to get the same volume of targets that he got with the Bills, although that declined clearly as the season progressed [Beck sez: from 11 per game to 8 per game], so he's not going to put up the same kinds of numbers, and I don't think that the league would see him, clearly they don't, you saw what the trade was, the league clearly doesn't see him that way - he's not going to get another big-number deal. Brown: So Greg, Let's look at the draft.....(5:25 if anyone wants to transcribe the rest..... ------------ **it's not clear to me what Tasker means by "his production and his targets were there, even when he wasn't being as productive...." if anyone can translate, please do. This is not a novel opinion about Diggs Cosell has expressed. Last year (I think) and earlier this season, he expressed the view that the Bills didn't have any elite talent at wide receiver, they had a single good WR. The surprise to me was how straight out Cosell gave his interpretation of the trade, that the compensation represented a determination "let's get rid of Stefon Diggs." So the elephant in the room here, that Cosell in his typical pattern will put out there but not explicitly say, is: since Stefon isn't a true #1 in his view but was the BILLS #1 by process of elimination (and since he was the Bills "single good WR" in earlier interviews), where exactly does that leave the Bills for receiving talent?

Just a little nit, Beane will not be taking on dead cap over 2 seasons for Diggs in this trade. We take it on the chin this year then next season we're clear. I'm trying to parse this statement and it does not compute "defenses kept on bracketing STef which kept him close to the LOS" Can someone translate please? I thought the routes a WR is assigned on a given play define his depth from the LOS I'll answer your question about the starting outside WRs after training camp.

It was a 2025 2nd round. The usual practice is a future year's pick is considered to be a round lower, to compensate