Beck Water

Could you expand a little bit on this? I'm not a Nathaniel Hackett fan, but he did have two outstanding years with Rodgers in Green Bay. Of course, that was with 37 year old Rodgers, not the 41 year old "post Achilles" version, and he legit had outstanding talent at RB and WR with Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. I really like Garrett Wilson, but Jets paying $12M to Allen Lazard and signing Mike Williams, Not Same Thing. I like Breece Hall, too, but he's no Aaron Jones.

Does Alabama have any good WR? Serious question....

311/673, #mathforall Of guys with >20 receptions, James Cook was unsurprisingly the best YAC man, which of course, is what you expect from an RB. 89% YAC. Of the receivers, Shakir also had 46% of his YAC, 7.2 Y/R. Knox was similar to Kincaid in Y/R and had a slightly higher percentage (but only 22 receptions to Kincaid's 73)

I think that's a fairly good assessment. I differ a little bit in a couple places. WR: I think WR high in the draft (I don't insist on Rd 1 or lobby for a trade-up) is a necessity, and maybe double down later in the draft, as they did with Elam/Benford. I agree with ? @GunnerBill (I think) that the Bills not restructuring Diggs contract, indicates that Beane sees the writing on the wall and wants to move on when feasible, but I think they also realize they need to "up" their WR game and have at least 2 "good" WR plus a good slot - as they did in '20 with Diggs, Brown, and Beasley and in '21 with Diggs, Sanders/Davis and Beasley. Curtis Samuel should fill that Beasley role. I was impressed by the jump Shakir took last year, but I'm not persuaded he's scaring anyone. More, please. DL: Depending upon who they sign in FA, I hate to say it but I view DT as a crying need. Right now we have Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, and Eli Ankou backing them up. Jones only played 7 games last season, and only 60% of the 1TDT snaps the year before. We have the 2 starters, but even if we move away from McDermotts heavy rotation we need more depth for injuries. You're right that DE is still a need, with our rotation being Rousseau, the Ghost of Von Miller, and Epenesa right now, with Casey Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan in the mix. We could really use a starter opposite Rousseau (replacement for Floyd) OL - I think you're correct that we have our starters penciled in, but I'm not happy with Spencer Brown at RT and I think they should look for a C they can develop (not necessarily a "utility knife" C/LG/RG backup) and depth at G. Keep in mind while McGovern is happy to play C, he really hasn't done so in the NFL, and when he did, it was with a different technique than Kromer teaches. LB - still need depth, I think. I guess we'll see what Dorian Williams looks like, and in theory Nicholas Morrow should be an upgrade to The Ghost of AJ Klein, but I dunno about Baylon Spector. Beck to Beane: "Please Sir, Can we have Some More?" Safety - Ugh! You may be happy with the idea of Rapp and Edwards starting, but my limbic system alerts at the thought. I think Edwards actually has some promise, but I thought Rapp was a danger to his fellow Bills last year. Has Edwards contract been reported yet? It's not up on Spotrac as of...right now. CB - I think Benford and Douglas start (sounds like a law firm!) but I hope Elam finally takes a step, and I'm not as persuaded by Cam Lewis as some here are. At a critical and high injury rate position like that, we need depth. I think Beane and McDermott will look to the draft. Overall, I agree that we have a decent set of starters already on the roster, but I think we need about 3 upgrades to feel confident.

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

Jordan Palmer and Kyle Allen talked about it on one of the podcasts. Josh clearly doesn't start as early as he did his first years - but he also had significant throwing arm injuries the last 2 seasons, so we don't know how medical advice played into that. I also have the impression that Josh may have changed who he works with, as he talked (post season this year) about making sure he spent time with the "appropriate people" working on his throwing mechanics because with the shoulder injury, he reverted and struggled a bit during the season. So you may well be correct that Josh "dialed back" his relationship with Palmer, but it doesn't follow he's not working with someone. This is hogwash. As I've said, Josh gets criticism here - including from me - but there's a big difference between fact-based criticism based on what is objectively on film and film analysis by people who know what they're seeing (Kurt Warner, JT O'Sullivan, Greg Cosell, etc) and fluffing up rampant speculation about how hard the guy works or doesn't work based on a handful of breadcrumbs and no real knowledge of his off-season schedule. I dispute that right here and now. He doesn't start lifting weights and throwing 4x/week as early as he did his first few seasons (and there may be medical advice that plays into that) but it doesn't mean he doesn't work hard when he works. And he seems to be into flexibility training - "stretch and strengthen" is a different approach, which I understand Tom Brady promoted. That's your interpretation. The actual transcript of the Bussin' with the Boys interview does not necessarily support your interpretation. This was discussed ad nauseum after the actual interview last season.

The Chiefs D last year wasn't just good - they "kicked butt and took names". #2 in scoring, #3 in pts per drive, average drive of 6 plays, #4 for passing yards and passing TD and rushing TDs. That's not a good defense, that's a great defense and if it wasn't called "great", it was only by people who weren't paying attention. Spagnuolo definitely deserves another shot at a head coaching job

For calibration purposes, check out his take on Dalton Kincaid from last June, quoted here: I would like to see an exact quote or a transcript where he says those words.

OK, so "usually" = last 6 years. Got it. Just realize that another way to look at it is Mahomes has won 50%, which is a coin toss. Now of course, getting the chance to flip that coin, is outstanding. But I do kind of wonder if KC might be getting a little full of themselves.

Chandler's post of his scouting assessment/highlight film got me looking for the "predict his stats" thread from last June, found here: Apologies for 2 Kincaid threads on the board at once, but since I put a good bit of work into this and it references an old thread, I thought it deserved its own play. Mods, if you disagree and merge, I won't be salty. Since I'm trying to learn the stats functions in LibreOffice, I decided to tablulate. Did the first 10 pages of a 14 page thread because I ran out of room on the paper I jotted things on. Eliminated obvious jokesters and incomplete predictions. Average prediction: 52 receptions, 551 yds, 6 TD Standard deviation: +/- 19 receptions, 252 yds, 2 TD Range: 9-109 receptions, 108-1376 yds, 2-13 TD (and yes, I did eliminate a couple of obvious jokesters, the outlandish ones I included seemed serious) Dalton's actual stats: 73 receptions, 673 yds, 2 TD. So "on average" he exceeded expectations except in the matter of TD. He played 63% of offensive snaps. Special mention to @NewEra, @Kirby Jackson, and especially @KingBoots8 who nailed his catches and yards almost exactly. I will give their judgement a little *bump* in my mind going forward: and a special raspberry to a guy who is either Eyore as a Bills fan, or a troll, @KDIGGZ for his take. Calibrate everything he says on this board accordingly.

We see from the record, that he had 4 drops on 91 targets (comparison: Knox as rookie 10 drops on 50 targets; Shakir as rookie 2 drops on 20 targets) He had an 80% catch rate. I don't understand how that gets described as "numerous drops". If you're catching 80% as a rookie, that's, like, Good. Also from the record, 46% of his yards, were YAC. So he may be avoiding/breaking more tackles than you think. Agree completely here. We had a number of run plays or screens blown up where Kincaid was asked to block in-line and just straight-out whiffed. He did a lot better downfield where what's needed is to be in the right place at the right time to just get in the way long enough to prevent the tackle.

I disagree some with some of what Chandler posted, but he's right that Kincaid is not an impressive blocker.

Actually, I think if Diggs were asked not to post stuff on social he would behave like a decent rational human being and....not post stuff on social. OK, I googled and found this: https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2023/04/19/kansas-city-chiefs-patrick-mahomes-2023-nfl-offseason-texas-workouts-better-game-plan-2023/ Looks like he has workout sessions in mid-April around a team virtual Phase I OTA, good for him. We really don't know what Allen is or isn't doing at that time, but I'm pretty sure the Bills had on-site OTA Phase I, so different situation.

Except of course for Brady's 7 superbowl or conference losses, and of course, since Mahomes was drafted Chiefs have 3 SB wins and 3 SB or conf. losses. So, what does "usually" mean to you?

I thought she was a soccer player? When do soccer players have time to tend bar, and don't they use depo these days? But fair point, fair point.

Some of these podcasts I've watched, and you are seriously misrepresenting what Allen actually said. He never said his off-season plan was to "play at every single PGA major golf course" in one off season, it was a lifetime bucket list. Last off season, I actually transcribed what he said on the Bussin' with the Boys podcast and it wasn't "I don't watch film", he agreed he was a "big film watcher" then said "I don't like to OVER watch film" and went on to explain that if he starts anticipating what the defense is going to do and then they're showing him something very different, it throws him off. I seem to recall actually having this discussion with you after those podcasts. I think you're just a troll at this point, but if you actually are a Bills fan but you can't figure out 1) how to listen carefully 2) how to put what's said on an entertainment podcast in context as not representing the sum total of 4 months of a guy's life, You Do You - go ahead and feel like Josh Allen has slapped you in the face. I bet you got off on it. Me, I don't think Josh Allen is a "slap in the face" kind of guy. He seems pretty chill and mellow to me, but if he did get riled enough to go physical, I bet he'd punch, and punch hard. Well, hey, busted clocks manage "right" two times daily, so.....

That is actually not what he said, especially not the "uses camp to get in shape". If you feel you know different - post receipts.

He does enough to be a winner most of the time, the question is, what, if anything, does he need to do different or more to be a champion? I don't know the answer to that but 1) neither does anyone else here 2) an off season workout photo op or throwing session may or may not be what he needs.

I suspect you're right. The difference, to me, is that people can analyze what our offense was doing or not doing from actual film of actual games, and analyze Allen's actual performance in games - the throws he took, or didn't take - and come up with fact-based ideas of what needs to get fixed both with the offense and with Allen's game as a pro-QB. Which, I'll say it, as good as it was, could be better. We could have conversations about that. But this whole nit-picking thread "does Josh still work as hard in the off-season" based on little information about how the man actually spends his off-season is crap.

You know, there's a lot of room between saying or considering something bad about Allen - which, I actually do, up thread here? and just Making ***** Up, which seems to be what a lot of people are doing in this thread, based on.....wait, let me see....absolutely no factual knowledge or information.

The Bills social media team? Of course they wouldn't be on top of it. Do you think it's the Chiefs social media team putting out that photo of Mahomes in the gym with Rice and Brown? Hint: It is not. The NFL/NFLPA CBA has strict rules about off-season coach and team contact with players. Having the Bills social media team "on top of it" would give the appearance of a team-sanctioned or team-supported or even team-organized workout, which would be a big No No. If (say) Josh had receivers staying at his house in Cali and working out at a local field, but told them all "I like to keep my off-season private, no Instagrams please" do you think they'd post anyway? Or would they respect him? How do you know Mahomes holds "annual offseason camps"? How long are these camps? Where and when are they? Let's hear the details since you're informed. While you're at it, Allen had a UCL tear mid-season last year. What were his medical advisors directions for his off-season workouts? He had a shoulder sprain mid season this year. What were his medical team's directions for his off season this year? Tell us about that. I'm not saying Mahomes hasn't or won't hold sessions with his receivers or isn't 'driven', but "holding annual camps" from a single photo in a gym and maybe a mention of some guys working out with him last off season seems like a creation. And truthfully, the KC offense started the season rather out-of-sync and finished 15th in points scored. They had 8 games decided by 7 points or less, 4 of which they lost, and were carried in many games by their kick-ass #2 defense. The Bills, for all the complaining here, finished 6th in offense. The difference is: KC put it all together and won the games when it counts, offense and defense. Just maybe ........ an off season "receiver camp" (or workout) doesn't move the needle too much on how aligned the QB and receiver actually are during the start of the season?

How would "asking ourselves" provide this information? Does the person you're speaking to actually know Sean McDermott? Do you? We have as little idea about what McDermott does in the off-season to be a better HC, as we do about the details of Allen's off-season work other than that he was seen in Paris with Hailee Steinfeld one day (he was photographed and it was posted on social media, so it happened). I'm not on Team Keep McDermott, but the bit about "replace with any other HC and the team still wins the division" is pretty clearly baloney.

It is pretty clear that last season, our offense wasn't good enough at times and certainly in our opening game against the Jets Josh played pretty poorly. So whatever went into that, needs to get fixed, and Josh needs to start the season dialed in. I have my ideas what that is, but I don't know for sure.

The point is: we don't know if our newly signed receiver has or has not met with our QB. What we know is, it hasn't shown up on social media. We also know our QB likes to keep his private life private and talked about deleting his social media (he has a twitter and instagram but they look like they're in the hands of an agent and just re-post other people's stuff and advertising committments). IIRC, Dalton Kincaid mentioned during one interview early in last season "working with Josh" after the draft last off season, but nothing was posted on SM or said at the time (so it must not have happened) and we have people here posting about how Josh never meets with receivers off season. We also don't know the scope of the abovementioned and pictured workout - weeks? days? a day? lifting? throwing? But hey, it's a picture on social media so it must be a Big Thing showing Big Things. Yes, it shows they have a good culture and mentality. Good for them. But again - the absence of stuff on social media doesn't mean the absence of stuff. People in this day and age seem to get confused about that. You don't know whether Allen met or plans to meet with Samuel or anyone else. but this post of yours drips with assuming they didn't or won't.

It depends on how they play. I'll put it out there, from what I've seen of Fields, I haven't been that impressed. Pickett has shown flashes to me - I would have liked to see him behind a decent OL. But, look at what Pittsburgh is paying Wilson. Vet minimum - $1.2M. Fields is getting $3.23M Tomlin has a history of benching QB if they're not meeting his standard for how they play and not giving a rat's ass if the guy he puts on the field has a shorter pedigree or was drafted lower or is getting paid more. See Hodges, Duck. Wilson is in "Pole Position", that's all we know. I'm not saying Fields will play. I'm just saying Wilson's leash may be shorter than you think, and Tomlin won't be afraid to yank on it. I'd laugh except the Bills just re-signed Mitch Trubisky