Beck Water

Are you guys talking overall, in the whole draft? One factor with teams that are consistently good, is that their lower round draft picks may not stick on the drafting team because, "no room at the inn". But they may stick on other rosters. So one needs to consider how that's factored into this assessment.

The OP Athletic article also doesn't discuss differences between the top of the draft and later rounds, or between the behavior of a team that is rebuilding vs one that is set at a lot of positions. It seems to me that probably matters. Someone referenced PFF data on this. I and others have done more back of the envelop studies that indicate the probability of getting a good player is something like 30% overall in the 1st round (maybe 50% at the top of the first round). That's not a star, just a good starter - including Jerry Jeudy with Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. The second round is also 30% overall, falling to something like 20% in the 3rd round and maybe 10% after that. Of course, there may be some self-fulfilling prophecy in that higher draft picks tend to get more development attention and more chances to start.

I totally hear this. Especially this year. I was able to name the player in something like 55 out of 79 pictures (a lot of repeats) but probably am wrong on a handful

Yes we believe it's Eli Ankou.

Ozzie Newsome was one GM called out in the OP Athletic article as consistently better than most: "Though some posted better track records than others, specifically Baltimore’s Ozzie Newsome, the answer was mostly not." But get this: "Coincidentally, around that time, Ravens GM Eric DeCosta said the following on a podcast: “There was a really seminal article written in 2005. It was really about the draft and how teams should trade back and always acquire picks — and never trade up.” DeCosta doubled down in 2021 when a reporter mentioned the Ravens as one of the top drafting teams in the NFL. “We’ve probably had the most picks over that span,” he said. “That goes back to a philosophy that I think Ozzie started back in 1996.”" So Ozzie Newsome and his successor Eric DeCosta may be doing better than average, because they are following the "trade back, get more lottery tickets" philosophy.

That's actually a valid point. One of the biggest unpredictable factors is, you take a guy who may have come from an impoverished or chaotic family background and who, in any case, has not been in the habit of dealing with large amounts of money. How will that impact him? Will he still have a "fire within" to be great? Or will he start loving the lifestyle the money can give him, over the pain and effort of the game that gave him that lifestyle? Or maybe he starts out loving the lifestyle and not as motivated and something changes him - he has a child, or someone influences him. It's intangible, and like any intangible, predicting that can be highly flawed.

OK, this could be a basis for discussion. Who, in your view, are these teams?

that's honestly what I reacted - Wait, that's Micah, that's his voice, that's his face but then the conscious brain kicked in and I said "so who is it then, 'cuz Micah's gone" I have got to learn me some new faces https://www.buffalobills.com/photos/buffalo-bills-arrive-for-2024-offseason-workouts#0d3d5789-531a-41e1-8410-39a10d59e8b7 I have no idea who so many of these guys are. 1 Groot 2 Ty Johnson and ?Darrynton Evans 3 Ty Johnson 4 ? 5 Bass-no-longer-o-matic 6 Josh Allen 7 Desean Williams 8 Dalton Kincaid 9 Will Clapp 10 ?Casey Toohill? 11 Josh Allen 12 David Edwards 13 ?Taylor Rapp? 14 Baylon Spector 15 ? no idea - maybe that's Casey Toohill? 16 Reid Ferguson, Sam Martin, and Matt Haack 17 Matt Haack 18 Sam Sartin 19 snapflow himself, Reid Ferguson 20 Connor Mcgovern 21 Dorian Williams and ?Nick Morrow? 22 ?Nick Morrow? 23 ? 24 Spencer Brown and Khalil Shakir 25 Khalil Shakir 26 Spencer Brown 27 Josh Allen 28 ? 29 ? 30 Khalil 31 Quinton Morris 32 damar hamlin 33 damar hamlin 34 ? 35 taron johnson 36 shane buechele 37 ? 38 ? 39 ? 40 ?Tommy Doyle? 41 ?Tommy Doyle? 42 ?Van Demark? 43 ?Van Demark? 44 ?Reggie Gilliam 45 Kaiir Elam 46 Kaiir Elam 47 Josh 48 ? 49 ? 50 ?Curtis Samuel? 51 ?Curtis Samuel? 52 53 54 Terrell Bernard 55 Terrell Bernard 56 Terrell Bernard 57 Mack Hollins and Mitch Trubisky 58 Mitch Trubisky 59 Mack Hollins and Mitch Trubisky 60 Mitch Trubisky 61 Groot 62 ? 63 MILANO! 64 ?Cameron Kline and Eli Ankou and I take back what I said about him skinnied up 65 Eli Ankou 66 ?Cameron Kline? 67 Andy Isabella 68 Da'Quan Jones 69 Da'Quan Jones 70 Jamarcus Ingram 71 Jamarcus Ingram 72 ? 73 Ed Oliver 74 Ed Oliver 75 Dion Dawkins 76 Dion Dawkins 77 James Cook (and man, does he look sleepy or stoned) 78 AJ Epenesa 79 Taron Johnson That's a lot of ?? for me - help?

As to the last, didn't hear it. And I was listening. Called him his brother, said he extended a hand to him when he joined the team, didn't say anything about him as a QB I read your post, rightly or wrongly, as saying Diggs still believed in Josh as his QB and it was the Bills initiative to be shopping him. My point is from what others have said about seeking permission to seek a trade, it was Diggs who wanted out and asked the Bills if he could have his people shop him. He didn't believe in Josh as his QB or in the Bills organization as a Championship-caliber organization any more, and he wanted to seek greener pastures. Who knows? The bottom line is that Diggs has moved on, and the Bills have moved on. I have moved on, from Ghost (Gabe Davis dog) to Penny (Khalil Shakir's dog)

We wholeheartedly agree on this. Part of his problem IMHO is that Daddy already got him off twice (that the news media knows of). In 2007 he was sentenced to 8 to 23 months for running a "drug emporium" out of the Reid residence (he was 22 at the time). While he was in jail, he was charged in a separate 'road rage' incident for brandishing a gun at another motorist, which, since it was an unlicensed firearm, is a felony. He was "diverted" to a drug program after 5 months. He received probation in the gun charge, and the other party involved settled a lawsuit for an "undisclosed amount". Who knows how many times he was pulled over and used the "son of famous football coach" card to get off with a warning or nothing? I'd guess, "a lot". So as far as I can tell, this guy has been getting in trouble and having his father's money and the best lawyers that money can buy protect him from the consequences of his own actions for 14 years, escalating from brandishing a weapon at another motorist, to using a car as a weapon by getting drunk in the Chiefs facility then driving it.

Except the story from others is that it was Diggs agents who did the shopping - that they had permission to seek a trade from anyone but KC So who knows? Except I think it's been a couple years since he said that about Josh, feel free to set me right "In fact, if you leave him alone too long, he'll chew up your sofa like an understimulated husky!" "We just got that sofa!"

That's true, but look at the reverse direction at the end of that Tiktok. (45-50 seconds) He's "on"

So, 15 to 18 months of jail time, maybe? Like Britt Reid after handicapping a little girl severely for the rest of her life?

Dude, Stop. You made statements, a couple of you asking you for sources is hardly "harassing you". Were we following around asking you on your every post? Following you around the site? Hitting up your DMs (I know I haven't)? What is this "harassment" you have suffered? If it's on Reddit or Youtube, it should be findable.

I voted "no", not because I think Beane is looking to trade for a star WR, but because I think Beane knew he couldn't trade for a star WR before this deal and this deal doesn't change anything.

With all due respect, that doesn't entirely make sense to me. By "cash spend" are you talking about "new cash"? Because all cap dollars were cash spend at some point - whether new cash, or a large cash payment up front that was amortized over all contract years. With regard to the Hurts deal, the cash spend this season is meagre, with a mere $13.5M dead cap hit but Hurts currently carries $120M dead cap hit.

I particularly like this one

Hmmm, well, maybe? We do know that Hurts signed a 5 year, $255M contract with $179M guaranteed last spring, right? I mean, you're not wrong, but a look at Hurts actual cap impacts....makes my head hurt Edit: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/jalen-hurts-47648/ I flatter myself that I'm decent at capology, and that one still makes my head hurt.

So did he visit the Bills?

Well played, Sir! That's a very fair point. But there are UDFA on various rosters around the league too. I think the point is, the plug isn't pulled on guys who can actually play in the league at Draft Pick #150, or Draft Pick #250, or Draft Pick #259. Some of the guys who get drafted earlier won't "cut the mustard", and some of the 7th rounders and UDFA will.

*perfect*

I see your point - and he is on the team. Would mean he's gotten skinny in the off-season though. Better put him on the Dawkins Diet If we're talking Eli Ankou though, let's give a Shout-out to his work off field https://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl360-gone-eli-ankou

You GuyzzzzZZZZZZZZZZzzzzz!

LOL, No.

YOU may be excused now!