Beck Water

The real problem IMHO isn't the rules, it's the lack of consistency in refereeing and enforcing them. One game it's a false start or an illegal formation, the next game it isn't Or maybe it's not an illegal formation until most of the way through the game, then at the end of the game suddenly it is It's DPI and the announcers declaim "they're going to call that every time", except, no, they don't. The NFL could fix this if they chose, the don't choose.

I don't understand your question in the context of my post. I said "But you don't hit the shot you don't take. Time for the Bills to shoot their shot at WR." and "In my mind, we're not trying to replace Diggs, we're trying to draft a guy who can give us a 1-2 punch WITH Diggs, and who has the potential to develop as a future #1 (not to walk in the door and hit it)."

I guess I'd summarize my feelings as "cautiously optimistic", but I really won't know what to think until after the draft. Given how far over the cap we were heading into the season, I've been cautiously by the moves that have been made. I was afraid loyalty would win over Cold Hard Football Facts with regard to Poyer and to choosing between Rasul Douglas and Tre White. I like Curtis Samuel as a FA signing far more than Deonte Harty, which was a big dice-roll to me last season. I expected "OMG Swiss Cheese Everywhere on Defense", and I think Beane has done a good strategic job at filling holes. Speaking of Harty, I was also pleased that Beane acknowledged the failure of the Harty and Nyheim Hines moves and cut line. (Sometimes GMs fall in love with their own work and lobby for more chances and time) Assuming Milano comes back somewhere near himself and Von Miller at least improves to decent, the front 7 on our defense looks OK. The biggest gap is at DE, where we lost the team leader on sacks in Floyd (10.5). Are we counting on Epenesa and Rousseau to step up? And, we definitely need depth at DE. As far as DB, we have Johnson, Douglas, and Benford back which were our best DB, but Elam is still a big question mark. Speaking of questionmark, I think Edwards looks like the sort of signing they made when they acquired Poyer and Hyde in 2017, but I don't trust Rapp as the other pairing there, and again, we need depth. But I don't think a lot of fans appreciate how far Hyde and Poyer had declined last season. They still had all the smarts, but not the range. So on defense: questions at DE, need depth at DT; questions at safety and need depth at DB. On offense, I consider center a giant (6'6", see what I did there?) questionmark. McGovern really hasn't played center on the regular in the NFL and acknowledges where he did, it was with a different blocking technique. And, if the coaches thought Edwards was a better LG than McGovern, it follows they would have started him at LG last season - so I feel that we've downgraded at LG, potentially at LG and C (we'll see). We definitely need depth at IOL and tackle, and IMHO we need a RT to develop behind Brown. I still feel we cover for him in pass plays with a TE or 6th OLman. I am under-impressed by the Clapp signing, other than it does give us a guy who has actually taken substantial Center snaps in the NFL as an option but that 3.75 RAS score has me SMH. I like the Curtis Samuel signing, but I still feel we need a boundary receiver. On ST, wtf was wrong with Bass and can he recover? And it's concerning that we signed Haack, while Martin's salary is guaranteed. As far as ST goes, I was actually surprised at how solid the core was. I felt it was kind of a global reset, losing Neal, Dodson, Matekavich, and Sherfield and with Rapp possibly playing more defensive snaps and fewer ST. But when I looked at the ST snaps, Gilliam, Cam Lewis, Q Morris, and Dorian Williams are all still here, and we've signed good ST contributors in Mack Hollins and Nick Morrow. So I feel better about the ST core than I thought I would at this point. I understand the people who feel the current team is weaker, but I wonder how they felt in 2021, when the Bills were basically trying to "run it back" with the same cast? Sometimes that works, and sometimes it doesn't, and in 2021 it fell short. I think that Beane has overall done a good job dealing the cards he had, but we are going into the draft Needing a couple picks to step up and pan out, and Needing a couple guys currently on the roster to level-up for the Bills to be more competitive. And of course, the biggest unknown on the Bills, is Joe Brady and his QB coach acolyte Ronald Curry. It *looked* as though Allen was more comfortable with Brady last season, but how well Curry will work with him is a big unknown

Good point on "when only week 8 on count...." Yes, Josh overthrew Diggs....there was also that bomb in the playoffs that it really looked as though Diggs could have caught, and he's stated "that's one I wish I had back". Diggs also has 8 scored drops. Diggs is undoubtedly a very good WR still

Yeah, but these workouts with Mahomes are not part of those 30 team visits.

So how'd it work out for that 2018 California college QB who talked trash? "9 mistakes drafted before me" "I'm going to win more rings than Tom Brady"? I

This year's savings would depend upon how much of his fully guaranteed salary a trade partner would take on, and it would mean shoving $22M dead cap into next season. I don't think we want to do that, personally. Whether that would make sense, would depend upon whether the Bills think they can field a competitive offense with whatever rookie and late FA pickups they might make, and what (after the draft) the trade partner is willing to offer. Also "week 8 on", the whole season does actually count. But to @FireChans, feel free to present your data.

You might be correct. Unlike this season, the Bills would actually save cap space ($22.75M dead cap vs. $27.85M on roster). Also unlike this season, Diggs only has $3.5M of his 2025 salary guaranteeing on the new league year, which gives both the Bills and any potential trade partners more leverage negotiating with him. I think it depends upon how he plays and how the receivers we acquire play. Hopefully the answer is "well" to both, and we trade him off for something reasonable.

Would you kindly explain why you believe TD per reception, or TD "efficiency on a per catch basis", is a useful metric to assess a WR? Because in all seriousness, I don't Get It. In 4 years, Justin Jefferson has 30 TD in 392 receptions. In 4 years, Gabe Davis has 27 TD in 163 receptions Would you seriously try to assert that anyone would rather have Gabe Davis on their roster instead of Justin Jefferson, because the former is "more efficient on a per-catch basis"? Curtis Samuel has been playing the slot. I don't think any sane Bills fan would argue that Cole Beasley didn't make significant receiving contributions to the Bills in his 3 seasons on the team and his 231 receptions, but OMG! he only scored 11 TD! How inefficient! Golly gee.....maybe slot WR don't contribute as many TDs when space is condensed in the red zone and it's harder for them to do their bread-and-butter "find holes in zone"? This reminds me of my younger 'n dumber days when I said something to someone about not earning too much money so I didn't have to pay more taxes. The guy I said it to gave me a look like I had swiss cheese for brains and said "I think you've got it mixed, you still have more money". Receiving yards matter. 1D matter. Sure, TD matter, but there are all sorts of tricks and tendencies for players we don't normally see on the field to get utilized there. TD per reception just doesn't sound like a useful metric. Travis Kelce has 74 TD on 907 receptions, How Inefficient, Throw the Bum Out.

Changed user name from Joe in Winslow. Now it makes sense.

Right on. And here's the thing, they need to be prepared to take a couple of shots on goal to get one in, not necessarily with 2 high draft picks this year, but 1 high and 1 later this year then 1 high and one later next year as well. We drafted RBs in the 3rd or 2nd round 3 years in a row, after all.

I looked at his twitter trying to find it and couldn't, but I think it was something like "take a pay cut" or "give back some of your money" or something. Here's the point from a business perspective: the guys on the Bills who did take a pay cut, Von and Knox, were guys whose performance this past season was objectively far below where they were paid, making them poor ROI. They also had little or no guaranteed salary. So it made sense to both sides: the team gets some cap relief, the player gets incentives he can "bet on himself" to achieve, and the player gets future guarantees. Diggs, on the other hand, can construct an argument that he's still a top-10 WR in the league and maybe has fallen off a bit from where he's paid, but not much. And, if he just sat tight, his salary fully guaranteed on the 5th day of the new league year. So the Bills really don't have a great case, or much leverage, for asking him to take a pay cut. And, most of his unpalatable cap hit is previous restructures, and money already paid to him as option or restructure bonuses. He ain't taking money he's already been paid out of his bank account to give to the Bills, and even if the NFLPA allowed this (don't think they do) it would be ridiculous business practice for the Bills to ask an employee to return contracted $$ they've already been paid. I don't think the Bills offered to restructure Diggs salary to bonuses, thus pushing cap hit into their future plans. They usually, AFAIK, don't need the players' permission for that type of restructure since it doesn't change their yearly renumeration at all. I agree with whoever said it - might have been @GunnerBill, or @BarleyNY - I think the Bills NOT restructuring Diggs salary is a sign his time in B'lo is winding down. Might be 2025, might be 2026, but they will move on.

The best way to look up air yards vs yac I know: pro-football-reference pick yer guy (Josh Allen) scroll down to "Advanced Passing" "Air Yards" tab. You want CAY/comp (completed air yards per completion) and YAC/comp. What you see there is a bit of a muddled picture, but to the point about deep threat - we can see that between 2021 and 2022 (when I would argue the Bills receiver corps fell off in quality), there was actually an INCREASE in CAY/comp from 6.5 to 7.5 y/a suggesting Josh was going for the deep shot instead of the short and intermediate routes that were Beasley's bread-n-butter. A full ypa jump is likely significant. We can see CAY/comp plummeted this past season to 6.1, while YAC rose to its best value since Allen's rookie year - probably on the heels of Kincaid emerging as a reliable short-yardage target with decent YAC, Cook emerging as a short target with significant YAC abilities, and Shakir showing some YAC chops - while Davis and Diggs and Josh just couldn't seem to get on the same page deep. I don't think the Bills offered Diggs a restructure with more cash up front for more security later in his contract.

The Bills got Diggs by giving up a #1 pick, a future draft #4, and taking on a big salary since Diggs had already signed a 5 year, $72M contract extension 2 years before the Bills traded for him. That's the valid point people who argued against the move (especially in hindsight, after the Vikes got Jefferson who turned out to be arguably better): we traded the opportunity to get a good WR on a cost-controlled rookie contract, for getting a vet WR who was the #1 hit on our cap the day we acquired him (before our QB got paid). [The valid counter-point is that the Bills and Allen benefited by bringing a well-developed route technician into the WR room, to help level-up the other WR and boost Allen's development. Some truth there]

Good post. Allen was actually 4th, not leading the league in completion % in 2020, but that's a nit. He had 69% completion % with 8 y/a, and I would lobby that Diggs/Sanders-Davis/Beasley in 2021 was also pretty good: while Allen's completion percentage declined, and passing yardage went from 5th to 8th, that represented a drop of 137 yds over a 17 game season, or 8 ypg. And some could argue Diggs decline from #1 WR in the league with a 76.6% catch % played a role. For 2022 the fall-off in terms of passing yards was double - 261 yds - and the Int% starting to climb. This past season, while Allen's completion percentage climbed from 63% to 66%, his Int% was almost twice what it was in 2020, 3.1% vs 1.7%. Some would say that's on Allen, and I'm sure some of it is, but it's also on WR not getting the same separation, or reading the defense and choosing the correct option, and then Allen getting impatient and trying to force things to happen. So while we aren't exactly talking a 'sea change' from top-3 passing offense to top-8 or 9 passing offense, that kind of drop is significant for a team with Championship as the goal. So yeah - Beane and the Bills Brain Trust felt that Davis was ready to step up and achieve something close to his 2020 Colts playoff or 2021 KC division round performance, on the regular. They were mistaken. They felt that McKenzie was ready to step up and go as a platoon with Crowder in the slot. Crowder got injured, and they were mistaken on that point too. Mistakes happen to all teams and all FOs - took the Chiefs what, 3 shots at a WR in the 2nd round to land one who looks promising? and there's Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st. But you don't hit the shot you don't take. Time for the Bills to shoot their shot at WR. I don't think that's really the question. In my mind, we're not trying to replace Diggs, we're trying to draft a guy who can give us a 1-2 punch WITH Diggs, and who has the potential to develop as a future #1 (not to walk in the door and hit it).

I agree with you that there is a possibility Beane will choose to use another 1st round pick on defense, and fans better be ready. I don't agree the Bills think they filled the "hole" at WR with Samuel. They have 2 holes and they know it - at slot, and at X. They filled the slot/flex hole with Samuel. They still need to replace, hopefully upgrade, on Gabe Davis at X and hopefully start grooming a Diggs replacement. I think the fact that they didn't restructure Diggs when that would have been an easy cap move, says they are looking to the day when they move on, which means they better start taking shots at his replacement now in case the first shot doesn't work out. As for Hollins, it's pretty clear to most people that Hollins is our Kumerow/Sherfield STer who can fill in at WR as a backup/blocker. It's been explained to you, too. No, the Bills don't see Hollins as filling their hole at WR.

I don't think of it as we need to "draft a Diggs replacement" in this draft per se in this draft, but this may be a matter of semantics. I 100% believe we need to try to draft the best WR prospect we can get at our draft position or a reasonable maneuver. The way I see it, offenses work better when they have two very good to elite WR. Davis racked up 200 yds in the 2021 division round because the Chiefs were scared of Diggs and covered him like a blanket. That proved to be somewhat of a 1-off occurrence rather than a steady diet, and Diggs doesn't elicit the same fear these days. Then of course, there's the ever-present "what if he gets hurt?" I thought Milano was the "indispensible man" on D, but to their credit the Bills made a combination of Poyer and Dodson work in his stead. We need to have some option for Diggs - another WR who can step up and be that #1, at least on some of the snaps even if he's platooning with Samuel or Shakir. So I 100% see the need for another good to elite WR to pair with Diggs who will hopefully grow into a #1 role, whether that's next year or 2 years from now. We need to be able to rely on WR help we get in the draft, not signing FA at a very pricy position.

You're correct. Teller can not play center, and Bates can.

I mean, maybe? and guys can develop since the draft, or have a bad day at the draft. But Bates had an RAS of 9.57. According to Joe Marino (linked above by @Watching since 1964), Clapp has an RAS of 3.74 which is.....not good. Until seen otherwise, I'm going to go with "We know Rick Bates. And Will Clapp is no Rick Bates".

It makes more sense to me after I learned about the Joe Brady/New Orleans overlap. He must have seen something he liked - potential, work ethic, locker room character, all three. It makes me feel better that they have a guy who has played center in the NFL last seaon on the roster now: McGovern took 0 snaps there last season. In this Athletic article McGovern talked about how different Kromer's blocking technique (jump-set) was from what he did with the Cowboys. Do you know anything about the blocking techniques the Chargers OL uses? I hope you're right that they're not done, but what they add I guess depends upon how they assess the potential in Anderson and Kevin Jarvis, IMHO drafting a tackle may be equally or more important; we only have Van Demark as our swing tackle at the moment, yes? And I believe he came into the season never having played LT? So that's a big gap to me.

In 2020, in our 3 playoff games he had 20 receptions for 311 yds. 2 games >100 yds. In 2021, he had 3 receptions for 60 yds vs NE, but that was the game where KC swung coverage to Diggs so hard that Gabe Davis went off for 200 yds and 4 TDs. 2022, 7 receptions for 114 yds vs Miami 2023, 7 receptions for 52 yds but we seem to have been using him on shorter passes towards the end of the season. I think it's notable in both 2022 and 2023, his contributions seemed to fall off in the 2nd half of the season, whether due to cumulative dings and dangs that wore him down or ??

Chris Jones. 5 year, $158M contract, $95M guaranteed. It's not a big hit on their cap this season cuz he gets his $30M signing bonus amortized and vet min salary, but next year it's $34.85M

It's hard to move a player on a 1 yr contract for significant draft capital It's hard to move a star player whose contract is $19.8M fully guaranteed for significant draft capital Sneed is on a 1 year contract for $19.8M fully guaranteed, so.....

Durrrr if the coaches thought Edwards was a better LG than McGovern......wait for it....they would have started him at LG

Clapp started 11 games for the Chargers last year, but it looks as though he got injured his previous game and DNP against us. Edit: looked it up, he was on IR actually. Knee injury but couldn't find details about what it was. Joe Brady was apparently an offensive assistant with the Saints when Clapp was drafted (7th round)