Beck Water

I said it up thread: Credulous Same with people who think Pat Mahomes, with his 7.7 golf handicap and his part-ownership of a soccer club, spends every waking minute of every day trying to be a better football player - simply because we're not seeing social media clips of him golfing, but we are seeing social media pics of him in a weight room with WR. It's the peril of our times.

Same

Catch rate matters, but the issue is getting a release against a DB with longer arms and then handfighting all the way down the sideline, arm length matters in order to hold the defender off and achieve that catch rate. It can be compensated to some extent with technique and strength, but in the NFL on the best teams, the best DBs have great technique and work out, too. The point some are making is that Shakir found success filling a specific role in the Bills offense. Now people are projecting he could change roles to playing more on the boundary, which may require a body type he just doesn't have, and increase his catches/yards by like, 50%. IIRC, Beasley wanted a chance to play more outside when he came to the Bills, and they tried that some in 2019 and it really just didn't work. It's a common thing here, we have a player who finds success in one role on the team (LT say), and fans immediately want to put him in a different role and argue he'll surely be just as good or even better, there. Agree on Shakir being a bigger, better athlete. Question on Renfrow: did he fall off a cliff, or did Josh McDaniel taking over as Raiders HC and the arrival of Davante Adams push him off? His best year was under Gruden/Olsen as OC when he got 128 targets and led the team in receiving yards. Once Davante Adams showed up and commanded 180 targets, everyone else got scraps. Then we saw Derek Carr shipped out in favor of Jimmy "Italian word for Made of Glass" Garappolo and Aiden O'Connell, which surely didn't help. Anyway, we had a front row seat to McDaniel's 'enshitification' of an offense, QB and WR who had looked competent the previous season, so I wonder about that - but I don't watch or follow the Raiders, so I don't know. If Renfrow played mostly from the slot and made his living as an RAC guy, then he's not likely part of the answer for the Bills, anyway. I just thought he seemed like a good player in the glimpses I saw, so I hope he finds a good home. Curtis Samuel, FWIW, has 31 1/4" arms.

I ain't gonna go near Beasley's twitter, so maybe you could translate a bit more for me - Are the fans saying Allen did it all himself, is Beasley saying that? Clarify, please. As far as why Beasley cares, I think his retirement/unretirement/retirement/unretirement says that Beasley really wasn't mentally done with football at a point where his 33 or 34 year old body could no longer do the things that made him a great slot. My sense is that he's a guy who is struggling with life after football, despite having a wife and kids he loves, a big property in Texas, and a large extended family.

The improvement in his 2nd year really impressed me - outstanding. He trains with Eric Moulds in the off-season and maybe the Bills ought to encourage some other guys to go there. Here's a clip of him training and an OBD interview with Moulds.

So McKenzie was a gadget/man slot WR - could not play outside. 5'8 180. Berrios 5'8 185 - I think pretty much a slot? But didn't Hunter Renfrow play outside a fair bit? I don't watch the Raiders much so honestly asking - but he averaged >10 Y/R his first 3 years and had a >1000 yd season his 3rd year, which is a little unusual for a guy who is strictly a slot. A lot of his yards in his good years were YAC (same is true for Shakir tho) He's a little bit larger, 5'10", which was John Brown's height (if we're speaking of guys who made a career despite not being a physical prototype for their role). Shakir is taller than either, almost 6', with a higher recorded vertical (38"). So he's a bit of a different beast as a WR than McKenzie or Berrios. I'm not saying it totally makes up for the lack of arm length, but the point is he's not the same physical prototype of player as those other two. I agree with your point that we now need not 1, but 2, WR with the potential to play outside more than half the time. It would be very un-Beane-like to go into the draft with such a large and obvious double hole. So Renfrow is actually a guy who interests me out of the relatively slim pickin's on the FA market currently. I'm not sure if Renfrow is that guy, but I don't think playing last year for a LV team in disarray, with 3 QB throwing to him and 2 OCs, did him any favors. What do you think about DJ Chark? He managed to put up numbers in Jax with Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles throwing to him.

LOL On "Speak", one of the hosts - Emmanuel Acho maybe? - was talking about what he called "freakazoids". He said almost every team in the league has about 3 "freakazoids", players who have an uncanny amount of physical talent. And that without enough "freakazoids", doesn't matter how well coached the team is, doesn't matter how hard you practice or how hard you play, going to lose because you don't have enough talent. So yeah, I tend to agree with you. On offense right now, we have Josh. Maybe Cook might become a "freakazoid", he shows freakazoid flashes, but only flashes and then some significant lapses (the drops!). Maybe Dalton Kincaid might become a "freakazoid", he's so silky smooth and seems to have beautiful hands. But we sure could use another. On defense right now, we have Milano and maybe, in flashes, Ed Oliver, maybe Rasul Douglas or he might just be a very solid high quality player? Von Miller was a hoped-for freakazoid, but got injured and hasn't been the same. Tre' White was a freakazoid before the ACL and looked to be coming back to form this season before the Achilles. But yes, I've probably made that argument about the defense. I think McDermott's defensive plan is to build an intricate defensive machine where all the parts work together in a way that is far greater than the sum of its parts. The problem is if enough of the starting parts are taken out, there isn't enough freakish talent to overcome that. I can not reasonably pretend to know enough about college football and the WR prospects to tell where the balance of risk and prudence lies. I'm just concerned, given the Rousseau/Basham debacle.

Love the screen name change BTW. So one of the reasons I did the thing I posted in the "WR scenario" thread was to answer questions like this for myself - "has there been a recent draft where 7 WR were drafted in the 1st round?" And for the last 7 years drafts, the answer to that is "no" - but there were 2 drafts with 6 WR in the 1st, 2020 and 2022. In 2020, 2 additional WR then went in the top of the 2nd round, picks 33 and 34. The best WR was arguably the 3rd or the 5th WR chosen, with the 6th - 8th being better than the 1,2,or 4th. In 2022, there was an additional 7th WR selected at the top of the 2nd round as well.

So one thing that was interesting to me listening to the Shout podcast with Parrino and Buscaglia, was the impression I got from Buscaglia that he really thought Diggs was a good dude, "misunderstood", an "intelligent, thoughtful, and self-aware" player who professionally tried to "get the best" out of everyone in the lockerroom. This in the face of Diggs publicly exhibiting behavior that seems far more likely to be toxic or detrimental than positive - so if he's so self aware and understands what he's doing while he's doing it as Buscaglia believes, Why Do It, then? As well as comments by Wawrow (who I think has at least as much access as Buscaglia and Parrino) that Diggs was a real problem, and references a couple of people here with real contacts have made to "stunts" Diggs pulled that were "detrimental to the team". Is Diggs intelligent and able to be thoughtful and self-aware when it suits him? I do believe that, but something does not compute. If we believe Buscaglia, the Texans made the Bills such an attractive offer that they decided to move him, even though they went into the off-season believing he was part of their 2024 plans. Preach. And this past season's playoff game vs. KC was far from the only game in which he had the chance to be a difference maker and didn't come through in the clinch. FIFY

I understand that POV, I just want to point out that going into the draft with either mindset, may not lead to the best outcome. I think it's possible that to get a guy they regard as a first round talent, the Bills may not be able to "stand pat" at Pick 28. So they're probably going to have to move up in the 1st round. In the last 7 years, there's only been 1 - 1st round pick later than pick #27 and that was in a "poor" WR year. Factor in that Beane has pretty well telegraphed his intentions as to which way the Bills will jump, teams drafting near us who want a guy, may well jump us. So we may need to trade up in the 1st, but not necessarily to top 15. Maybe just 3-8 picks. I also think that Beane went into the 2021 draft with the absolute mindset that Job #1 was to "affect the QB". As a result, we wound up with Boogie Basham in the 2nd round, a "high floor low ceiling" player whose floor turned out to be lower than we thought. With the benefit of hindsight, there were DLmen drafted later who might have been a better use of the pick, and other positions that would have helped the Bills more in the 2nd round. Creed Humphrey or Osa Odighizuwa anyone? I would like the Bills to draft two WR, I think when we look at situations like Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford, or the fact that Shakir seems to be shaping as a better WR than a whole bunch who were drafted earlier - I'm not stuck on draft WR in the 1st and 2nd as the best notion.

So I think there are a couple of layers to this. The first is the layer I already covered elsewhere - drafting a player high in the 1st, or even in the 1st at all, does not guarantee an elite talent. It gives teams the highest probability, but it's far from a certainty. Nor does drafting later exclude an elite talent. So to a certain extent, those who feel we can "let the draft come to us", point to the intrinsic uncertainty of player evaluations, and the fact that draft picks are an alignment between the team's internal talent evaluation and their sense of "how the frog will jump" for the other 31 teams. The second layer is that there's a difference between what's needed to win in the regular season, vs what's needed to win in the playoffs. The Bills managed 10 wins and a trip to the playoffs with no #1 WR, sort of "#1 by committee" between John Brown, Cole Beasley, creative play design, and a handful of "guys". But they couldn't close the deal. Next year we went to the AFCCG with the addition of Diggs as a true #1 (by the way, I hate that term "alpha". It gets used all the time by a bunch of chest-thumpers who feel the need to tell the world they're the top wolf in a theory of pack hierarchy that's been debunked for several decades - in fact, the same scientist who developed it, later debunked it. But I digress). It wasn't quite good enough to get us into the Superbowl, but arguably we were close on offense. But then we saw Brown decline, and obviously not quite enough done to replace them with Davis 2nd year, and 34 year old Sanders/32 year old Beasley. We were still good to stack W in the regular season, but just having a #1 in Diggs wasn't enough in the playoffs. So the third layer is, if asked whether it's more important to have a #1 WR or to have a number of capable receivers to spread the ball around, my vote is "Both are needed". In the playoffs, with the best defenses, if you don't have a #1, they'll stifle all your receivers. If you do have a #1 but not enough depth, they'll stifle your #1 and the rest of the guys won't be able to do enough. Anyway TL;DR I'm not sure the mindset you think you're seeing, is exactly the mindset people have. But maybe I'm wrong.

He needs both - a WR who is elite at faking out defenders and getting open, AND who will hang on to the damned ball. But, as I hope is obvious from a post I did in another thread, that doesn't translate to "move up in the draft at all costs" or even "draft WR in the 1st". The trick is always to figure out which of the prospects is actually gold.

So since I'm digging into past drafts: Year 1st rd WR - pick order wAV of 1st Rd WR Pick # Best WR Pick # 2nd WR # WR drafted 2017 2 - #7, #9 #7, #9 #69 #89 13 2018 2 - #24, #26 #24, #26 #24 #47 34 2019 2 - #25, #32 #25, #32 #51 #64 28 2020 6 - #12,15,17,21,22,25 #17, 22, 25, 15, 21, 12 #17 #22 35 2021 5 - #5, 6, 10, 20, 27 #5, 10, 6, 27, 20 #112 #5 35 2022 6 - #8,10,11, 12, 16,18 #11, 8, 10, 16, 18, 12 #11 #52 28 2023 4 - #20, 21, 22, 23 #22, 23, 20, 21 #177 #22 33 So what does all this mean? First off, 2023 and 2022 should be taken with a large grain of salt because a lot of guys are still clumped together for wAV, and PFR's weighting may not align with yours and mine. There were 4 years in which the first WR picked turned out to be the first round WR with the best wAV, and 3 years in which they did not. There are no years in which the first WR picked, turned out to be the best WR in the draft! In 4 out of 7 years, the best WR was not drafted in the 1st round One last bit, even in years where 6 WR were drafted in the 1st round - the consensus BPA for all 32 teams ran out of WR before pick #28. I toss this out for whatever comfort it may pose, if the Bills don't draft a WR in the 1st or don't move up for one of the top 3 WR in the draft. The board will predictably go nuts, but 4 times in the last 7 years, the best WR in the draft wasn't even drafted in the 1st (3 times, he was) Every year, various draft pundits authoritatively speak as to which player at a position, or which 2 or 3 players at a position, are absolutely the best in the draft. And far more often than not, they are mistaken. Obviously, teams are making judgements on these points as well, and they're often mistaken Once again, drafting is not an exact science, and then we get into coaching and player development and the intangibles like the player's drive and will to succeed.

He does do promos and so forth, but they're pretty clearly paid promotions. He pretty clearly leaves Instagram and Twitter (X, whatever) to his media team to post said paid promotions and 'like' posts about Bills players and Bills team moves just enough to make it look like an active account.

Epic. Perfect. This deserves to be preserved on TBD.

So for anyone curious, the receivers who have been in the top 20 the past 3 seasons are: Tyreek Hill (Rd 5 pick 165); Justin Jefferson (Rd 1 pick 22); CeeDee Lamb (Rd 1 Pick 17); Keenan Allen (Rd 3 Pick 76); AJ Brown (Rd 2 Pick 51); Ja'Maar Chase (Rd 1 Pick 5); Stefan Diggs (Rd 5 Pick 146); DaVante Adams (Rd 2 Pick 53) That's in order for Yards per Game 2023. In the past, when a draft has been regarded as "deep" at a position, Beane has sometimes drafted that position in later rounds with the idea that "we can get a guy later on who can help us". There were 16 WR drafted before Gabe Davis in 2020. Using pro.football.reference wAV as a metric (it's not perfect but it seems to be decent), 5 of them have contributed more than Davis: CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr, and Tee Higgins. There were 18 WR drafted after Davis, one (Darnell Mooney) has been close to Davis in production. So basically he's contributed more than 11 WR taken before him in the 1st through 3rd rounds, and we didn't leave any obvious "gems" behind us. There were 20 WR drafted before Khalil Shakir in 2022. Again using AAV, 7 have contributed more and 1 equally to Shakir: Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave in the first; Christian Watkins, George Pickens, and Alec Wilson (close to KS) in the 2nd, and Romeo Doubs in the 4th. Jahan Dodson is "same". So basically Shakir has contributed more than 2 WR and equal to another WR drafted in the 1st; more than 4 WR drafted in the 2nd; more than 6 WR drafted before him in the 3rd and 4th rounds. There were 7 WR drafted after him, none have contributed as much, so no obvious gems behind us. I'm not pointing this out to argue for waiting to draft a WR, but to point out that there is that element of a "crap shoot" in the draft, where you know the probability is higher to draft a player who is really good and can contribute right away in the 1st round, but it's far from certainty. And maybe you need a little luck.

This Palmer and Kyle Allen mentioned something about "Kincaid is out here now" on one of their recent podcasts. IIRC Kincaid said something about he and Shakir were throwing with Josh last off-season. I can't tell you whether Allen does, or does not, put in the off-season and off-field work to elevate his play to another level I don't need to tell you the level he's at is pretty damned fine I'm just a bit aghast at the credulity people display about little clips on social media. "Pics or it didn't happen"

I'm not persuaded the Bills view Elam as a "failed first rounder" quite yet. They may - but McDermott has consistently said stuff about players "getting it" in their 3rd year. I think they at least carry Elam through training camp. Their pattern with a lot of guys who are no longer with us is that they give them 3 seasons (or at least 3 training camps) - Ford, Moss, Basham etc. Don't forget Corey Coleman, whom the Bills paid (IIRC) the better part of $3.5M to be on the roster for less than a month during 2018 training camp.

If you want measurables or scouting reports, move on now. I thought it would be interesting to look at where some of the top WR were drafted. I started by looking at Y/G for the top-20 WR for the last 3 years. I used Y/G to normalize for injuries to WR or QB. There were 8 guys who have been in the top 20 for 3 years, showing consistency. Draft position: round-overall pick 1-5 1-17 1-22 2-51 2-53 3-76 5-146 5-165 3 from Rd 1 (1 top 10 pick, 2 from the bottom half of the round) 2 from Rd 2 1 from Rd 3 2 from Rd 5 Another 8 guys 2 of 3 years: round-overall pick 1-4 1-6 1-7 1-7 1-11 1-24 3-69 3-84 Adding both groups together 9 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half of the 1st, 3 bottom half) 2 from Rd 2 3 from Rd 3 2 from Rd 5 12 guys who appeared in the top-20 1 of 3 years (keep in mind, this includes rookies and guys whose QB fell to injury): round-overall pick 1-25 1-27 2-33 2-34 2-36 2-52 2-64 3-66 3-69 3-89 4-112 5-177 Adding all 3 groups together 11 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half, 5 bottom half) 7 from Rd 2 (3 early 2nd, 4 2nd half of the 2nd) 6 from Rd 3 1 from Rd 4 3 from Rd 5 So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years: 39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half) 25% from Rd 2 21% from Rd 3 4% from Rd 4 11% from Rd 5 What's my takehome from this? The odds are highest to get a top WR in the 1st, but the chances are about even between the top and bottom half of the round. Pretty good odds from Rd 2 and 3 After that, you can still draft a good WR but, it's a lottery ticket If I feel energetic, I may go back and look at how many WR were drafted ahead of each of these guys.

Another interesting take - podcast with Matt Parrino and Joe Buscaglia. Buscaglia is, I think, quite well connected inside the Bills. Buscaglia has some interesting takes: 1) "I don't know that (the situation with the Bills) was "as toxic as some people are making it out to be". He says Diggs is a "vastly misunderstood dude, quite honestly". He says Diggs is a "very intelligent, self-aware, thoughtful person who understands what he's doing when he's doing it" but also "has not allowed his personal feelings, for the most part, to get in the way of his work ethic and trying to get the most out of everybody on the field". [all I can say to that is, Just Wow Joe. Frankly, if that's true that Diggs is very self aware and understands what he's doing when he's doing it, then Shame On You, Stefon for some of the crap you've pulled] He goes on to say "that said, was there some fatigue? Yes. I think that is very obvious, whether it was Stefon being fatigued with coming up just shy in the playoffs, whether it was fatigue of Stefon's I guess, intensity, from the building, but there was some general fatigue to where the Bills had opened themselves up to the premise of potentially trading him" Joe says (and remember, he does have good connections) "from everyone he's talked to" that the Bills went into the 2024 off-season open to the idea [of moving Diggs] but also "believing that Diggs would be part of their 2024 plans". He makes an analogy to Zillow and the blue "Make Me Move" dot, and says the Texans came in with a "Make Me Move" offer for Diggs, offering what may be a high 2nd round pick next year. 2) They discuss whether "the beat" missed the signs - brought up the Tim Graham anecdote from the Jets game. Parrino points out he has a background in communications (not PR, how humans communicate) and that he felt a lot of the clips that came out (Josh and Stef being playful in practice) was PR and that he couldn't remember in the locker room seeing him communicate with Allen or interact with him. So they feel there was a genuine disconnect, and neither of them know how and what it was (both say they've been trying to find out). Interestingly, they both speak very highly of how great Diggs was to deal with in press conferences and how much more they got from him [no mention of stuff I've heard directly from other media guys about Stef dodging his press responsibilities or declining to talk to press in the locker room for weeks or months at a time] They point out the reporters see everything in training camp, and then once the season starts and rules change, they only see about 15%. They both comment that Josh seemed like "a different dude" last season, in a press conference before Dorsey was fired he seemed "subdued" (and during the Denver game, after he scored to take the lead, wasn't pumped up or celebratory). After that they spend a good bit of time going back and forth about Josh's demeanor and Stef's demeanor in interviews after the season with nothing substantive, ending by reiterating that they don't think the Bills came into the off season thinking they had to move Diggs, and at one point thinking they wouldn't, and then Houston came up with "a great offer". They both agree that there was a real disconnect between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs but they don't know what it is. 3) they discuss Buscaglia's mock draft and various WR in the draft ----------------- Anyway, give it a listen if you like. I think the most substantive thing was Joe Buscaglia's take that the disconnect between Allen and Diggs was real, they don't know what it was, that per his sources the Bills didn't go into the off-season feeling like they "had to" move Diggs but that they were open to it, that the Texans trade was a good value that "made them move". I personally was a bit shocked by what I would describe as Buscaglia extolling Diggs, how very intelligent and self-aware person he is and how he "understands what he's doing when he's doing it". If that's the case, then Diggs is self-aware that he's behaving like a total douchecanoe at times (leaving the building after a tough loss). Diggs seems to me more to fit the classic pattern of a narcissist. He is known to be a "player" romantically. Those are usually narcissists, guys who can turn on the charm and make their target feel like 2 million bucks while the guy is "into them", then flip a switch and "drive by" with no concern for the former target's feelings or perspective. They've moved on, why can't you? And narcissists are the classic "double standard" guys, where they'll be happy to let you know everything that you're doing that isn't up to their standards, but God Forbid you hold up a mirror and expect them to see what they're doing that isn't up to the standards they have for you - That's Different. So it doesn't surprise me that two press guys would perceive Diggs as giving a lot to the press and coming across very well to them, but somehow miss the big picture point that he would dip out on his NFL mandated press responsibilities when it didn't suit him - and I don't think Diggs has any clue what the impact of him dipping out on the team after a tough loss would be.

I remember, but while I do think Shakir is being a little hyped-up and that people who expect him to be able to inflate his 611 yds and 39 receptions to 60 or 70 receptions for 900 or more yards, or to take over as a boundary receiver, may be disappointed - I also think the situation is much different than Foster. Foster was a one-trick pony. His trick was get off the line, and run fast, and he wasn't that great at tracking the ball in the air, either (but he could run fast enough to get under an overthrow). Once DBs got the picture, they would jam him on the line or even hold him and take the DH or DPI instead of giving up the TD. Shakir, while some people wanted him last year, really worked on his craft and worked hard in the off-season. He came into 2023 as a much better WR all around, better at releasing, running better routes, showing better hands. And he didn't just have 1-2 unworldly games, as Gabe Davis did - he showed a pattern for game after game of catching everything thrown his way, studded with 3 games close to or over 100 yds. If he gets more target share, he's 100% earned it by working at his craft. BUT, it would be very risky to count on him producing at a 1/2 level.

"Sorry Josh didnt want to hear that his dumb decisions and 3 ints cost us an easy Jets win." It's literally what you wrote. It's not "on" the reader to infer that you were being metaphorical, it's "on" you to write more clearly. If that's you're point, it's incorrect. You don't know that either. You don't know what Kyle Allen was saying to him, you don't know what the other guys Tim Graham couldn't hear or wasn't reporting on said. I'm willing to believe, Walk the Walk.

Exactly. drop mic, end thread. He may be goofing off 100% and not seeing after his physical condition and throwing motion or doing anything to improve his mental grasp of the game. He may be doing exactly what he needs to do to ensure he shows up in the best mental and physical shape of his life and has improved his field vision and solidified his throwing motion He may be meeting up with our newer receivers like Kincaid and Shakir and Curtis Samuel. He may not be. But a couple of social media posts of him golfing or of Diggs and of Mahomes working out, don't prove a damned thing one way or the other and there's only one word for anyone who thinks they do: Credulous .

The thing is, we needed Diggs in the playoffs - and he wasn't there. We really need a game-changer to get us over the hump in the playoffs, it's just Diggs was Not That Guy the last 2 years.

Another cool time lapse One of the friends we went 'eclipse hunting' with told me not to bother trying to take photos, as people with better cameras would be posting them.