Beck Water

OK, I read articles, but I don't have Twitter or IG or Tiktok accounts so I spend very little time online. The only social media I have is Facebook, and I use it to stay in contact with rellies and friends and some local or hobbie groups. So I'm honestly asking. You don't have to screenshot every comment you see, but some general insight rather than "trust me it's out there", would be helpful.

For sure, valid point. Not just QB situation, but overall team situation - talent around them at receiver, OL quality, coaching, OC.

I'm not Firebaugh Kid, but I thought he showed flashes when he played towards the end of 2022 season when Benford was injured. So I don't think the "Fat Lady" has sung yet, but I don't think other GMs are gonna give much either. He's saying Elam would have negative value in a trade. It would de-value our pick to the 2nd round to package Elam with it. Wise guys.

I think this is one of these things where, "if you don't think enough of your 2022 1st round pick to play him in in more than half the games, and you're already giving up and willing to trade him, we don't think enough of him that we're willing to give you very much" Fact: Cordy Glenn, who was an established starting LT before previous season injury and IR, moved us up 9 spots from 21 to 12, WITH a same year 5th round pick thrown in (and a 6th back as change). Fact: Brown is not a LT, and a 2025 4th is considered devalued to approximate a 2025 5th. I don't think you're gonna see Brown get you 12 spots.

In a way, this encapsulates the argument that "stats are for losers" and why eye ball and shoe sole scouting has its place. I agree that Chase had a lower year this year because of the QBs throwing to him. But when we add in external factors, St Brown arguably had his stats depressed in 2021 despite having Goff for 14 games, because Anthony Lynn was not a very good OC and because the team as a whole lacked talent. Anyway, point is, I understand your POV but my point is, it is debateable to some, and why.

Well, no, that's not quite it. We're looking at the pool of WR who were top-20 in Y/G for at least 1 of the last 3 seasons, and asking where they were drafted. So of the top WR, 61% didn't get drafted in the 1st round, true. But when you're trying to FIND a WR, you have to look at how many WR were available to be selected (or how many projected to be drafted in that round) and ask what the odds of finding a successful WR are, overall for that round. So, for example, in 2023 there were 19 WR drafted in the 4th round or later. One (Puka Nacua) lit it up. So odds from random chance would be 1 in 19 of getting a top WR in the 4th round or later. Of course, the Bills talent evaluators would like to believe it's not a random event due to careful evaluation of the prospects in person and study of their film.

I transparently explained the methodology I used in my OP post: pro-football-reference wAV. It's not perfect, but it's reasonably objective. I understand your viewpoint, but by objective measurables they may be closer than you believe at this point. St Brown has been available for a few more games, which is factored in; he has more targets, more receptions, a higher catch % (73 vs 66), more 1D, the same # of all-pro selections. Chase has 8 more TDs, 129 more receiving yards, higher Y/R, and more playoff games (6 vs 3) wAV is 35 for St Brown, 33 for Chase. So yeah, you may disagree, but it certainly seems debateable. All honesty, I think there's a bit of "halo effect" because Chase had an All-World rookie year and then two very good seasons, while St Brown had a Rashee Rice-like rookie year, a very good second year, and an All-World 3rd season.

FWIW, I share @Mister Defense's question about where and what is this anti-Allen criticism? Don't tell me it's all over, show me what you mean. Thanks.

I would like to know what the story was with that guy. He looked so slow in our offense, was that just me? Course we only gave him like, 10 snaps per game. Anyway, I wish him and Nyheim Hines the best (except when they're playing the Bills of course) I have to take the "L" for both of them, I didn't think they'd be major finds but I thought they would both contribute more than they did.

Could we try for Puka Nacua? LOL that's a TBD special. "This player's no good, therefore let's trade him for a high pick!" because you know, if a player is genuinely limited surely some other GM will give you a sack 'o draft valuata...... We traded Cordy Glenn, who was a very good LT when not injured as follows: "On March 12, 2018, the Bills agreed to trade Glenn, the 21st overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, and a 2018 fifth round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for the 2018 12th overall pick and a 2018 sixth round pick" So basically, Glenn plus a 5th/6th pick swap moved us up 9 spots. IF we value Brown, a RT, the same (that's an 'if'), he'd get us from 28 to 19....no where near 10.

I don't disagree with the overall point of your post, but it's worth noting that when the Bills broke the drought and only had one (1) 1st or 2nd rounder from prior drafts on the field (in fact, many players from any round prior drafts), it was in large part because Beane and McDermott cleaned house, arguably trading away guys who could play but who weren't "their kind of guys". Guys they swept out the door included Marcell Dareus (who was on the field for JAX), Reggie Ragland (played 3 years for KC, won a Superbowl with them), Ronald Darby (still playing, last season for BAL), Sammy Watkins (6 more seasons), Cyrus Kouandijo (2 seasons for DEN), Bobby Trees (still playing, won a SB with LAR), Stephon Gilmore (still playing) So if your point is, the Bills drafting was so horrid that none of their guys could play - while there was a long stretch of horrid picks like Aaron Maybin and Torrell Troup, there was also a fair bit of talent. The problem is, we either moved on from it for nothing (Gilmore, Bobby Trees, Andy Levitre), or just failed to develop it properly in what seems to have been a 'dysfunction junction' environment. (it's a bit of a nit, but Eric Wood, our 2009 1st round pick, was on the field for the JAX playoff 100% of the snaps. Shaq Lawson our 2016 1st round pick, and Cordy Glenn, our 2012 2nd round pick, were both on the team, but IR'd)

One would think, but when you're wealthy and can afford the best attorneys, you get all kinds of stuff like the Kansas City prosecuting attorney accepting a plea deal from Britt Reid for 4 years (commuted by the Governor after 16 months) because they were afraid they wouldn't win in court and get the 7 years he could have faced..... I'm just thinking that a bunch of the charges will get dropped on some technicalities unearthed by a crack legal team or due to quiet offers to settle with the injured parties who will then stop cooperating with police and ask that the charges be dropped. Then he'll be offered a plea deal. KC isn't the team to give up on a rookie who had 938 yds and 79 receptions, just 'cuz of a felony charge, or two, or eight.

The team that won the 2022 Superbowl did so with a top-10 vet receiver who happens to play TE, a 26 year old (former 1400 yd) #2 WR who was drafted in the 2nd, their own 2022 and 2019 2nd round picks, and your daughter's gym coach who used to play for the Packers. 2023 Superbowl, make it a vet receiver who happens to play TE and is starting to slow down, their own 2023 2nd round pick who looks like the best WR of the 1st 2 rounds, their own 2022 and 2019 2nd round picks, your daughter's gym coach who used to play for the Packers, and the hindrance supplied by the Giants. The Cinncinnati Bengals WR corps, they ain't. But KC made a significant draft and FA investment in WR, some of which didn't work out as they planned. But, they took their shots, 3 out of the last 5 years 2nd round picks. That seems to be a lot more investment than the Bills have tried on, until Kincaid last season (since I'm counting him as a TE)

I would like to see the Bills take at least a couple flyers on FA through training camp. I'm making my way through the list of FA WR still available. I'd like to see us try out a younger guy (27-29) who has had at least 1 - 1000+ yd season in his past, and who has quite possibly been hampered by living through poor QB play. Anyone stand out to you? I'm kind of interested in DJ Chark, though I don't have the whole scoop on his injury history and why he fell off https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/available/

Wow! I legitimately Did Not See That Coming. I wonder how many "stick" after Rice's best lawyers get on it?

I used slightly different methodology (top-20 WR and looking at whether they were top-20 for 3, 2, or 1 year) and a slightly different time window (the last 3 years) Just a little note that a top-32 WR would get a lot of posters here saying "not good enough" Conclusion: So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years: 39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half) 25% from Rd 2 21% from Rd 3 4% from Rd 4 11% from Rd 5 Then, I used a different methodology using pro-football-reference wAV statistic, and looking at drafts from 2017-2023. I wasn't looking at hit rate here though, but at success vs. draft pick order.

Except that's not what Josh said at all, unless by "official practices" you mean "voluntary OTAs in April" (which are, you know, voluntary and not practices)

I said it up thread: Credulous Same with people who think Pat Mahomes, with his 7.7 golf handicap and his part-ownership of a soccer club, spends every waking minute of every day trying to be a better football player - simply because we're not seeing social media clips of him golfing, but we are seeing social media pics of him in a weight room with WR. It's the peril of our times.

Same

Catch rate matters, but the issue is getting a release against a DB with longer arms and then handfighting all the way down the sideline, arm length matters in order to hold the defender off and achieve that catch rate. It can be compensated to some extent with technique and strength, but in the NFL on the best teams, the best DBs have great technique and work out, too. The point some are making is that Shakir found success filling a specific role in the Bills offense. Now people are projecting he could change roles to playing more on the boundary, which may require a body type he just doesn't have, and increase his catches/yards by like, 50%. IIRC, Beasley wanted a chance to play more outside when he came to the Bills, and they tried that some in 2019 and it really just didn't work. It's a common thing here, we have a player who finds success in one role on the team (LT say), and fans immediately want to put him in a different role and argue he'll surely be just as good or even better, there. Agree on Shakir being a bigger, better athlete. Question on Renfrow: did he fall off a cliff, or did Josh McDaniel taking over as Raiders HC and the arrival of Davante Adams push him off? His best year was under Gruden/Olsen as OC when he got 128 targets and led the team in receiving yards. Once Davante Adams showed up and commanded 180 targets, everyone else got scraps. Then we saw Derek Carr shipped out in favor of Jimmy "Italian word for Made of Glass" Garappolo and Aiden O'Connell, which surely didn't help. Anyway, we had a front row seat to McDaniel's 'enshitification' of an offense, QB and WR who had looked competent the previous season, so I wonder about that - but I don't watch or follow the Raiders, so I don't know. If Renfrow played mostly from the slot and made his living as an RAC guy, then he's not likely part of the answer for the Bills, anyway. I just thought he seemed like a good player in the glimpses I saw, so I hope he finds a good home. Curtis Samuel, FWIW, has 31 1/4" arms.

I ain't gonna go near Beasley's twitter, so maybe you could translate a bit more for me - Are the fans saying Allen did it all himself, is Beasley saying that? Clarify, please. As far as why Beasley cares, I think his retirement/unretirement/retirement/unretirement says that Beasley really wasn't mentally done with football at a point where his 33 or 34 year old body could no longer do the things that made him a great slot. My sense is that he's a guy who is struggling with life after football, despite having a wife and kids he loves, a big property in Texas, and a large extended family.

The improvement in his 2nd year really impressed me - outstanding. He trains with Eric Moulds in the off-season and maybe the Bills ought to encourage some other guys to go there. Here's a clip of him training and an OBD interview with Moulds.

So McKenzie was a gadget/man slot WR - could not play outside. 5'8 180. Berrios 5'8 185 - I think pretty much a slot? But didn't Hunter Renfrow play outside a fair bit? I don't watch the Raiders much so honestly asking - but he averaged >10 Y/R his first 3 years and had a >1000 yd season his 3rd year, which is a little unusual for a guy who is strictly a slot. A lot of his yards in his good years were YAC (same is true for Shakir tho) He's a little bit larger, 5'10", which was John Brown's height (if we're speaking of guys who made a career despite not being a physical prototype for their role). Shakir is taller than either, almost 6', with a higher recorded vertical (38"). So he's a bit of a different beast as a WR than McKenzie or Berrios. I'm not saying it totally makes up for the lack of arm length, but the point is he's not the same physical prototype of player as those other two. I agree with your point that we now need not 1, but 2, WR with the potential to play outside more than half the time. It would be very un-Beane-like to go into the draft with such a large and obvious double hole. So Renfrow is actually a guy who interests me out of the relatively slim pickin's on the FA market currently. I'm not sure if Renfrow is that guy, but I don't think playing last year for a LV team in disarray, with 3 QB throwing to him and 2 OCs, did him any favors. What do you think about DJ Chark? He managed to put up numbers in Jax with Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles throwing to him.

LOL On "Speak", one of the hosts - Emmanuel Acho maybe? - was talking about what he called "freakazoids". He said almost every team in the league has about 3 "freakazoids", players who have an uncanny amount of physical talent. And that without enough "freakazoids", doesn't matter how well coached the team is, doesn't matter how hard you practice or how hard you play, going to lose because you don't have enough talent. So yeah, I tend to agree with you. On offense right now, we have Josh. Maybe Cook might become a "freakazoid", he shows freakazoid flashes, but only flashes and then some significant lapses (the drops!). Maybe Dalton Kincaid might become a "freakazoid", he's so silky smooth and seems to have beautiful hands. But we sure could use another. On defense right now, we have Milano and maybe, in flashes, Ed Oliver, maybe Rasul Douglas or he might just be a very solid high quality player? Von Miller was a hoped-for freakazoid, but got injured and hasn't been the same. Tre' White was a freakazoid before the ACL and looked to be coming back to form this season before the Achilles. But yes, I've probably made that argument about the defense. I think McDermott's defensive plan is to build an intricate defensive machine where all the parts work together in a way that is far greater than the sum of its parts. The problem is if enough of the starting parts are taken out, there isn't enough freakish talent to overcome that. I can not reasonably pretend to know enough about college football and the WR prospects to tell where the balance of risk and prudence lies. I'm just concerned, given the Rousseau/Basham debacle.

Love the screen name change BTW. So one of the reasons I did the thing I posted in the "WR scenario" thread was to answer questions like this for myself - "has there been a recent draft where 7 WR were drafted in the 1st round?" And for the last 7 years drafts, the answer to that is "no" - but there were 2 drafts with 6 WR in the 1st, 2020 and 2022. In 2020, 2 additional WR then went in the top of the 2nd round, picks 33 and 34. The best WR was arguably the 3rd or the 5th WR chosen, with the 6th - 8th being better than the 1,2,or 4th. In 2022, there was an additional 7th WR selected at the top of the 2nd round as well.