Billy Claude

It was neck and neck with Gase`s introductory press conference. While Gase appeared to be high, Tomsula just rambled incoherently for an hour.

Jim tomsula

I don't know if Tom Brady doesn't belong on the list either. He started every game his last two seasons at Michigan (though he did the weird platoon with Drew Henson) and led the big comeback win against Ohio State his last year. I remember the UM fans complaining about the platooning when it seem pretty clear that the offense looked a lot better with Brady than Henson. Lloyd Carr was just in love with Henson's measurables.

Something Allen would need to overcome is turnover numbers. Allen has 15 (9 int + 6 fum lost) vs. 7 (5+2) for Mahomes and 6 (4 + 2) for Rodgers.

Sarcasm I assume? Definitely one has much more confidence in this kind of analysis in baseball or basketball but it is still fun to think about as long as you don't take it too seriously.

I am guessing on the baseline but it would explain why the average is negative.

I couldn't figure out what their baseline is. If the baseline is a coach who makes every decision the same as what they feel is their optimal then all coaches would have an overall negative impact -- just that bad coaches would be more negative than good ones. In any case, to a certain extend the baseline doesn't matter -- only how one coach compares to another matters. Perhaps that is why they only release the rankings.

It is at least partially due to the coaches calls on critical plays. Based on their models of what the better decisions are, coaches tend to make the "wrong" decision more often than the "right" decision on critical plays. So the average coaches decisions on those plays lead to negative expected points.

Yes, I absolutely agree -- other factors play a much larger role in him not getting another HC opportunity. His record with the Vikings was worse than I thought (.400) although it was impressive that he got into playoffs with Christian Ponder as his QB even if he had prime Adrian Peterson. He also doesn't give the impression he is that interested in being a head coach. If he wanted it out there that he was looking he wouldn't have turned down a Rooney interview last year.

The Gase and Mularkey hires were a complete shock to me. Gase for some reason has great relations with the owners and almost no-one else.

I don't know where Frazier was on the list but it was widely reported that Dennison was his third choice for OC with Mike McCoy being his top choice.

I am not saying that Frazier deserves another opportunity and I don't think he even wants to be HC but really? You can't name one? Are we forgetting Adam Gase already? If we just consider NY/NJ related coaches, how about Dick Jauron, Mike Mularkey, Doug Marrone, Rex Ryan, and Pat Shumur?

That's what Trace McSorley is. Obviously no Lamar Jackson, but he ran a 4.57 40 and had 800 yards rushing his senior year at Penn State. He is Johnny Manziel without the off field problems.

I believe they said 2 stops out of 13 on 2 pt conversions over the last two seasons on gr this morning. .

Slightly unfair -- since Tomlin came from the defense side he not as involved in the Xs and Os that are more obvious to fans. Of course his defense gave up 45 and 36 points in the last two playoff losses so that doesn't help.

Wasn't this what they said about Andy Reid before he won the last Super Bowl -- i.e.., that he was a very good coach but would always get out-coached in the big games?

Definition of misleading use of statistics. It makes sense that your not going to get as many yards in cold weather but you can tell nothing this small a sample size.

Not defending it, but QBR is the only rating system that includes QB runs so that undoubtedly contributed to Jackson's better than expected numbers.

Here it is: https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/10/dolphins-steelers-blitz-touchdown-tanking "Everyone thinks a bizarre Dolphins play call is proof of tanking" It wasn't a Hail Mary but a sell out blitz on a 3rd and 20 that led to a 55 yard Steeler touchdown.

Thanks. Makes sense.

Top of list is all young qbs except for Flacco and Newton. Most of bottom of list all veterans (Rivers, Brees, Smith, Brady) and Mahomes is a special case but why don't people blitz Trubisky and Minshew?

Here it using Pro Football reference data: Definitions: Blitz % = # Blitz/Dropbacks = # Blitz/( #Atts + #Scrambles+ #Sacks) Hurry % = (#sacks + #hurrys + #hits + #scrambes)/ Dropbacks 100 dropbacks or more Allen #4 in blitz percentage and #25 in hurry percentage Blitz % Hurry % Tua Tagovailoa 44.6% 14.3% Cam Newton 44.1% 27.5% Joe Flacco 38.4% 29.5% Josh Allen 38.3% 20.6% Daniel Jones 38.2% 27.5% Jake Luton 37.3% 21.2% Sam Darnold 37.2% 27.9% Baker Mayfield 34.1% 14.5% Andy Dalton 33.9% 14.6% Ryan Fitzpatrick 33.6% 21.9% Carson Wentz 33.4% 27.0% Jared Goff 32.9% 15.5% Matthew Stafford 32.4% 23.3% Nick Mullens 32.3% 30.0% Jimmy Garoppolo 32.3% 20.0% Ryan Tannehill 31.9% 23.1% Aaron Rodgers 31.8% 13.1% Derek Carr 31.0% 17.7% Russell Wilson 30.9% 27.0% Joe Burrow 30.5% 20.8% Kirk Cousins 30.0% 24.9% Ben Roethlisberger 29.7% 15.3% Nick Foles 29.5% 21.4% Drew Lock 29.2% 24.1% Deshaun Watson 29.1% 23.8% Justin Herbert 28.8% 26.1% Teddy Bridgewater 27.8% 18.4% Matt Ryan 27.1% 24.4% Dak Prescott 27.1% 21.3% Lamar Jackson 25.5% 22.1% Dwayne Haskins 24.5% 22.7% Kyler Murray 24.4% 17.3% Tom Brady 23.3% 16.8% Drew Brees 22.9% 13.5% Alex Smith 22.0% 29.5% Gardner Minshew II 21.0% 21.9% Mitchell Trubisky 20.4% 21.1% Philip Rivers 20.1% 14.7% Patrick Mahomes 19.7% 20.1%

Based on their play at the end of last season, I was hoping to see a big step up from both Tremaine Edmunds and Ed Oliver. For whatever reason it hasn't happened though they have been looking better recently. If either one becomes real stars, there would be no question that Beane is one of the top drafting GMs.

Probably a more meaningful stat than the average is the median which was 2 yards. In fact, not counting fumbles, they were on 2nd and 8 or longer 13 out of 22 times. I don't know what the league median is on first downs but I assume more than 2 yards.