Generic_Bills_Fan

I wouldnt even say we were bad against big ben...the steelers were so much more talented than us not too long ago it wasn't like we were expected to hang with them and just didn't show up 🤣

I dont like to get ahead of ourselves but where do you think we go if we beat the Steelers 😁

Yup its strength of victory...looks like all three teams need 4 common games for that to matter. I thought maybe they'd still eliminate one out of two with that but it doesn't work like that apparently lol were in good shape for strength of victory unless the chiefs beat the saints and end up with 3 losses somehow

I wonder how many years we wouldve snuck in as the 7 seed...we never deserved it so ive gotta agree with you

It comes down to strength of victory...if the chiefs somehow beat the saints and lose to the chargers or something like that they would be the 1 seed in a three way tie. This is exactly what happens...I spent more time than id like to admit looking at this unlikely scenario 🤣 the bills better win out now haha

I've been looking at strength of victory and we are in the driver's seat for that as well if its coming down to that...im sure I made a few counting errors but I used teams current records assuming steelers lose to only us and Cleveland and the chiefs losing to the dolphins and saints and us winning out and we are at 76-87 W-L in victories, steelers are at 70-92-1, and chiefs are at 67-95. Shame we had to play the winless jets twice 😁 our strength of victory would be quite impressive otherwise

For a team to factor into the common opponents tiebreaker they have to have 4 common games played but im pretty sure you can still eliminate 1 of the 2 teams based on that tiebreaker without Pitt factoring in. The head to head rule between three teams specifically says you can't only consider two teams out of three and the rest of the rules don't say that . Im not 100% sure though. If thats not true it would come down to strength of victory. Nfl.com playoff machine has us in at a three way tie at 13-3 also

They seem like the worst matchup for us and I dont feel confident seeing Bill belichick for a third time...despite their shortcomings on paper. I think we'd win a majority of games we played against them but we just don't stop the run well enough/ make enough plays on their defense to win comfortably

Who do you think they would keep out of the playoffs? Id rather see Baltimore than Tennessee i think but otherwise I wouldn't want Baltimore in

I think bad weather hurts the steelers more tbh...they don't run the ball either and ben is not half as athletic as Josh right now

Amp up practice when they're playing their 3rd game in 11 days with all their guys banged up? Lol I think this 'teams coming out angry and playing better because they lost' thing is an absolute myth. Good teams don't lose two in a row often because the odds of them losing even one in a row is pretty low 🤣

Seems like our players have gotten a lot better at not jumping on Josh's hardcounts lol that was a huge issue not too long ago

I'm not in his brain obviously but im not sure nervous is the right word...I think he comes out jacked up to have a big game and gets a little overexcited when hes got a guy open and is about to make a big play. Dude looks as confident as anybody to me even when he's making mistakes lol

Thats really the way to slow down any offense...get pressure on the qb without sending extra guys. Allens got that escapability though where you've gotta be really disciplined in keeping contain and is capable of a big play in any situation. Seems like teams have been trying to use that to their advantage and flush josh out of the pocket hoping he'll play hero ball and make a mistake and it just did not happen in that 49ers game. Limiting Brian Winters on field time seems to be the key to victory every week 🤣

New England may be the worst on paper but they are the most likely to put some unexpected wrinkles in that stump us id say

I was always skeptical of teams having 'extra motivation after being mad at a loss' but what do I know ive spent 0 minutes in an nfl locker room 🤣 its just as likely the next week's opponent now has the blueprint on your weaknesses

Definitely the smartest bet lol Miami is very middle of the pack on all the football analytics sites for the folks that care about that stuff...im not sure where these 'Miami is the best thing since sliced bread' posters were coming from 🤣 they just had a pretty big soft spot in their schedule and they finish with 4 tough ones.

I think our best scenario(outside of getting the 1 or 2 seed) is we go into a week 17 game with Miami thats meaningless for us but the dolphins need a win to make the playoffs and then we get a rematch with Miami in the first round of the playoffs. Idk if we could hold the 3 seed playing backups against Miami though so maybe thats impossible. If you could somehow guarantee me the bills beat the steelers maybe a Miami win over kc would be a good thing

Theyd let it happen to the Steelers though 🤣 3 games in 11 days is pretty ridiculous but I won't complain if it gets us a win

Head to head does not apply in a three team scenario if the three teams haven't all played eachother...so the first use of the tiebreaker rules is to eliminate one and make it a two team tie and you restart from the top of the tiebreaker rules...they don't do a great job explaining it on the website but ill try to track down the relevant quotes 🤣 its honestly a little silly that we lost to kc but are undefeated against common opponents with kc and can eliminate them but that is the way it is lol if kc had played pitt it would be a different story...a kc win over pit wouldve had them at 2-0 against us two and couldve eliminated us both in one tiebreaker rule. If pitt beat kc we'd all be 1-1 head to head and the same thing described before of kc getting eliminated on common opponents would happen...and by eliminate i mean eliminate from the #1 seed of course lol

Yea I screwed up with knowing how many conference wins the teams would likely have in a three way tie in my last post but we would be the 1 seed at a three way 13-3 tie. Chiefs get bounced on the win percentage against common opponents tiebreaker so it comes down to us and the steelers and we have h2h

I've been looking into this all day rather than working haha you are right that head to head between all three teams doesn't apply but they go down the tiebreaker list until one of the 3 teams is eliminated and then start back at the top with head to head to break the remaining tie between the two teams...wed have the chiefs at winning percentage in common games and then we'd win the head to head with pitt i think

Right i screwed that up haha good call third loss would probably be the saints...so it would go to common games ill have to check on that...we did beat the raiders and dolphins so I think we would eliminate the chiefs based on common opponents and then you'd walk through the tiebreaking procedure again for us vs steelers and we'd have head to head

Patriots could beat both us and miami...I think thats our biggest test left for the folks that think we are gonna win out and get the 1 or 2 seed...Miami is definitely fighting an uphill battle compared to the other wildcard teams schedules

They are getting payed to attract viewers and get clicks on the internet so hot takes ultimately help them