Generic_Bills_Fan
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Posts posted by Generic_Bills_Fan
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12 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:
I didn't say 4 teams are going to come out of the north. At least one is likely to. Thats one less spot out of 3. It's not unheard of for 3 teams to happen. It's happened in one conference for the last 3 years.
The AFC is still a dog fight this year. There are a lot of teams that are within 1 game of us right now. All but the Pats are within 2 games. We can't afford conference losses if we lose the division because either the other teams have a better conference record currently or we play them. There are only 3 spots. There are 4 teams within a game. There are 4 more within 2 games. Some of them we play. Some of them have a better conference record. We have to win the conference games if we don't win the division.
Oh yea you didn’t say 3 are likely to make it from the north explicitly but you listed a bunch of wildcard competitors to highlight the position were in. There really are not that many for the reason that 3 are in the same division is what I was saying. They have to beat eachother up which hurts conference record and overall record. And if one catches fire and clears the other ones out that’s not exactly bad for us either as it’s 2 less teams we’d be competing for a wildcard with.
the teams we have lost to so far aren’t really serious wildcard threats which helps a ton. Jacksonville will win the south, pats won’t make it, jets likely won’t make it. If they’re in the mix, they have lost to NE also for divisional record purposes and I don’t see them beating Miami. If they do beat Miami, it helps our division standings
the other teams like cincy and lac we play head to head so conference records are not really that meaningful for us at all
we’re really not in a bad spot at all and the playoffs look very likely. There aren’t a whole lot of good afc teams this year
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9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:
I think we would be lucky to. Think about our schedule and what teams have to beat us for us to not win our division. Some of them are the same teams fighting for a wc spot. Bengals, Chargers, even the Jets are a half game behind us right now lol. If they beat us then they have the head to head. Then the ones that we don't play, like Pitts and Browns currently have a better conference record. There are a lot of teams sitting within 1 game of us right now that also won't win their division.
Three of those teams you mentioned are in the same division and one of them has to lose every time they play eachother. 4 playoff teams coming out of the north is very very very very unlikely. It’s more than likely going to get whittled down to one wildcard team at best (or 0)
then you’ve got teams like the chargers who have as many or more issues than us. I’ll give cincy the benefit of the doubt making cincy/baltimore a wildcard team but who are the other two teams making it over us? Bills are probably 75%ish to make the playoffs right now and have a very good shot even if they don’t win the division.
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54 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:
Many of your aforementioned individuals do not watch the rest of the league with quite the same frequency that they do the Bills. Sure , some takes in here are measured and reasonable. Many others are over the top with negativity and expect only perfection. They put other teams and staffs on a pedestal and think they can do no wrong. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Regardless , my point stands. Most NFL observers do not view the Bills as having zero shot in this upcoming game. If you prefer the sentiment that says otherwise , great . Enjoy!
It seems like when someone is just analyzing the play of their own team, they are comparing to a hypothetically perfect team that can do no wrong and makes no mistakes which leads to a lot of pessimism because we are not even close to that level. When you benchmark teams against eachother, things start to normalize a bit because no team is perfect.
Cincy has had a ton of issues this season and their fans have likely been raising the same kinds of complaints over on their board as we are here. They have been one of the worst teams at running the football, the defense hasn’t been as good as last season, the offense is wildly inconsistent and rarely shows up for 60 minutes
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5 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:
So one thing about this though….a LOT of people in here watch every Bills game, every week, and they have been doing so for decades. And a LOT of the latter folks are very knowledgeable about what they are seeing. And other younger, less knowledgeable people who peruse this forum get to read the “takes” from said knowledgeable posters, so then they gain knowledge, and know what to look for in future games.
OTOH, we have unbiased NFL observers, or if you will, “experts”, (LOL) who DO NOT see every play from every game that the Bills play in. Most of them think McClappy is a great coach….”Look at his record!” And some of these so called experts are younger than the skin tags in my armpits.
Bottom line, I’ll take the sentiment in here over those experts all day, every day. 😉
I don’t think the general sentiments about the bills struggles is wrong…what’s makin this game closer than most on here expect for me is the successes of Cincinnati are being blown massively out of proportion and I’m less high on them than others.
Pretty much any criticism you can raise of the bills would directly apply to cincy as well…these are two eerily similar teams that are very inconsistent. I would not be surprised by anything in this one
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47 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:
I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1
I wouldn’t do it…that’s too much money for two of the most inconsistent good teams in the league playing against eachother
If it were me I’d wait to let people overreacting to the niners game push the spread up and then take the bills with the points.. the most likely outcome I have is bills come up just short in a shootout if you’re gonna bet bengals I’d do it right now though lol -
53 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
A terrible Giants team with a backup QB, a terrible NE team, and a truly mediocre TB team on the road all proved to be bad matchups for the Bills, so maybe the conventional wisdom on TBD is correct?
Here’s where I get a little lost…I keep hearing about this cincy defense that’s gonna destroy us and so on,TB may be mediocre overall but that defense is legit and we moved the ball well against them. if we were more concerned with their offense we likely go for those 4th and shorts, pick up a couple and score 30+. They are better than cincys defense so far this season in just about every way and leading the league in red zone defense.
im not saying the ‘we’re gonna lose’ crew is wrong in their prediction at all necessarily, but they are doling out credit for this weeks results in a pretty unrealistic way which is inflating the bengals a bit too much imo. The deeboless 49ers aren’t really a whole lot better than the buccaneers. They’re 0-3 and were 0-2 against very mediocre opponents leading up to the cincy game. Their offense has been pretty awful and they put up 460 yards against cincy which isn’t far off from being more than their previous two games combinedI don’t think Buffalo and cincy are far apart and they have both struggled for a stretch of this season…anything could happen. Bengals as a small favorite makes perfect sense to me so I’m not sure they’re a tier above us at all.
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18 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
I took the Bengals too. This line is undervalued. Just like Bengals +5 against SF that I took a few days ago. If I’m wrong then the Bills have won and it’s more enjoyable on this board. If I’m right then I’d be a few bucks happier and this board will be…highly entertaining.I’m not sure that it is undervalued going into the game but you may end up making your money anyway so who cares haha. I think the logic is the bengals have looked good one game against a team that has been in a free fall the last few weeks. Everyone is getting hung up on it being the 49ers but the 49ers have been a mess for nearly a month now.
we’re in here talking about the bengals physical defense but the bucs defense is better by every advanced metric and we moved the ball pretty well on them. It’s gonna come down to who gets more red zone stops so I’ve got it as a 50/50 game at a neutral site/slight cincy favorite at home
buffalo and cincy are both near tops in the league in preventing tds in the red zone and TB is number 1. Red zone offense we are second in the league in TD percentage with Miami at 1.
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Just now, 78thealltimegreat said:
Have to remember as bad as the Bills played the 49ers team the Bengals just played scored 9 points against Cleveland and 17 points against Minnesota.
They still should have lost to the Seahawks last week. So the Bengals are playing better but it’s not like we are playing some juggernaut that why even bother showing up type of game.The 49ers are lost without Deebo…we may lose for sure but this notion that the bengals beat a juggernaut is objectively false.
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3 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:
ONLY a team run by morons takes the equivalent of the overnighter to Europe 2 days before a football game! ANY of us with a ***** Passport, who travel beyond our borders- unlike evidently the entire Buffalo Bills franchise, knows what to do when attempting to negotiate a FIVE HOUR Time Zone shift and the effects on the human body.Whoever made that decision should be sacked immediately!
Whoever didn’t overrule him- the same.
Not saying your point is wrong but a lot of teams do it that way lol I think the thought is you still won’t be adjusted either way so might as well stick to your preparation/recovery schedule
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38 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:
Looks like 7 guys are tied including Allen. Total turnovers, Allen is ahead of Mahomes by 2.
Allen is +7 in total tds also to be fair
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38 minutes ago, Beast said:
I was expecting a -4.5 to -5 for the Bengals.
The Bills are just all out of sorts.
Vegas doesn’t trust the bengals yet either…Deebo-less 49ers are a mediocre at best team that is now 0-3 in a 3 game stretch. Don’t think the non buffalo fan bettors are taking as much out of the niners bengals game as we are.
it’s possible they’re just starting out on an epic run but it’s possible they aren’t too
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16 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
We will see how it plays out. We disagree on lots here.
I mean not as much as you think…I could absolutely see the bills scoring 30+ and you can’t I think that’s the only real difference.
nobody is saying we’re gonna completely shut them down on offense that I’ve seen but I do think we can get a few stops
both teams are completely different than last year
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Just now, newcam2012 said:
I don't think so. I think the Bengals are hitting their best stride. They have weapons on offense and the depleted Bills D just can't match up well. I don't see a realistic path where the Bills D can contain Burrow.
The home field is also a very big factor as well.
On offense, I was very encouraged very encouraged with what I saw vs Tampa. The versitlity of the offense was eye opening. The use of RPOs and Josh's legs was a welcomed site. However, this really a one game sample against a pass funnel defense.
Spencer Brown is still a major concern and don't think Lou A won't take full advantage of that.
The Bills pass rush has to be effective. The front four has to get pressure on Burrow. McD has used the blitz to manufacture lots of pressure. That's just a recipe for disaster vs Burrow.
Also, the significance of the Cinci run game has to be addressed. With DJones the run D isn't the same. Olivers return is very helpful and Poona even made some plays. Settle and Philips are not dependable. Cinci ran all over the Bills in that playoff game. Frankly, their offense did whatever they wanted. Run or pass pass or run. Pick your poison. The Bills had absolutely no answers . Zero answers zero replies zero ability to slow the offensive of the Bengals. Frankly, I don't see a logical path on how the Bills stop them again.
The Bills offense is going to have to score 35 points or more. Allen is going to have to wear his cape and almost be flawless. He will be running for his life because Lou A is dialing up exotic looks and pressures.
Idk where that genius Lou a has been all season…that joe burrow injury must’ve really effected the defense lol. They’ve been bad more than they’ve been good.
have you only watched them play today? They are 29th in the league in rushing yards per game. I feel like your bet comes down to ‘im betting they’re going to go on a run’ but it’s just as likely that this game was a one off against a team in a slump to me seeing as they’ve had one good game. I’m not saying you’re definitely going to be wrong, it’s just a bit riskier than you think is all I’m trying to say lol
if SF wasn’t marching up and down the field and shooting themselves in the foot with rookie mistake type turnovers I might feel a bit different and call it 60/40 but that’s a SF offense with an inexperienced qb missing a huge offensive piece and they racked up a ton of yards still. I didn’t gain any additional faith in the cincy defense that game. It’s quite possible the bills score 30+ on them.
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35 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
McD and his coaching staff got thoroughly embarrassed in that playoff game. Out coached in every way. Unprepared is an accurate statement.
Put aside all the turmoil of the season. What was most bothersome was the Bills game plan. To this day, I have no idea what they were doing? They had a dress rehearsal a few weeks prior which should have prepared them to have an effective game plan. Or a the very least different game plan. Nothing zero zilch...
Fast forward to this week and we Bills fans believe this coaching staff will step up? Why would you think that? Please elaborate because I want to hear a logical and realistic response.
Add on the team hasn't played well in several games. The defense is a shell of itself. You really think the Bills can stop or contain Burrow and company? I'd recommend you rewatch last year's game for a reference.
I just pounded the Bengals at -2.5 for one of my bigger bets I've made.
They looked the part. They played well in every phase. They look to be hitting their best stride. They shredded the niner defense. Burrow looked elite, in control, poised, and virtually unstoppable. It was a lot like when they throttled the Bills.
To be truthful it's not that simple. He should absolutely have a game which tries to give the Bills the best chance to win. That's all you can ask for. I'm just not seeing how this depleted D can stop the Burrow leD. No if they had a healthy Tre, DJones, Milano, and Von then I'd like their chance. That's just not the case here.
Haha sounds like you’ve got a personal investment on the line and are trying to convince yourself you made the right call.
They may win,they may lose, but I think it’s far from the slam dunk that you think it is. Bengals will certainly score points though I don’t think anyone is arguing that.
it’s not so much overrating what the bengals are capable of as it is underrating what the bills are imo and you are putting far too much stock in a game from last season. Cincy was one of the best defenses in the league last year and this year they haven’t been nearly as good. By pretty much any advanced metric, the TB defense is better than cincy’s and we moved the ball quite well against them.
SF is a mess with purdy and no Deebo, they are a sub .500 team without a doubt. This isn’t like the bengals went out and stymied the 2007 pats like you’re making it sound 😂. Despite that SF just had a few boneheaded turnovers…they racked up 460 yards.
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24 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
Ten straight MVP's have all been on teams that were the best team in their conference so Win/Loss does seem to play a huge role. Of course odds are, when you have two conferences, you are going to be able to find at least one QB out of the top two finishing teams that has really good and deserving stats. That is likely how it will play out this year as well.
While we can sit here and say that Josh arguably has the best stats of all the QB's this year, that won't get it done if the Bills are not the best team in the conference. He needs to basically have unanimously better stats than the other QB's to win the MVP and not be on the best team. Good thing for him he is already +4 in TD's on all other QB's. And +7 on Mahomes. If he can finish the season in the +10 area they may just be a wide enough gap for the voters to recognize.
I mean it’s pretty likely the guy with the best qb stats is gonna be on the best team but it doesn’t always have to be true. Looking at the previous winners it’s not like they passed guys up because they didn’t have the regular season win total
im not disagreeing with your final paragraph at all I think that has a pretty decent chance of happening though. The defense being not great actually kind of helps him…he’s gonna be in a lot of shootouts.
the chiefs have had a fundamental shift where they’ve been winning mostly with defense so far which has shaken things up
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21 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
Did you see last year's games vs Cincinnati?
The Bills have lost 3 stars and or studs on defense.
There are really only a few paths to a Bills victory. Sure it could happen but it sure seems more unlikely than likely.
What do you see that's different this year? What makes you think the Bills will win?
Cincy isn’t the same team as last year either…they lost Jessie bates who was a huge piece on defense
SF isn’t much of an offense without Deebo… I don’t think there’s much we can extrapolate out of the bengals win over SF on the defensive side. Our oline is improved from last year also, it’s really delayed blitzes/mixing up responsibilities that has been killing us which I think will get sorted over time. Last year saffold and brown just got dominated pretty much all season long.
we’re better at running the football than last season as well.
We’ve got extra time to prepare also. I think it’s gonna be a coin flip type game
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2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:
I'm convinced no one carefully watches our coaching. Yes Cincy & Philly are beatable, but not if our coaches trip over each other.
I watch our coaching and there’s plenty of decisions you can second guess for sure, but you could say that about plenty of other top coaches also. We’re acting like a lot of these inconsistency issues are unique to us and it is very much not the case
there is probably a forum post or two or ten on every single teams message board criticizing their coaches right now 😂
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36 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
So how do you see it now with Allen and Mahome each having 8 INT's on the season but Allen having a whopping 7 more TD's than Mahomes?
Another fact about the two QB's and their teams, they are combined 0-5 in games where their defense gave up more than 20 points. It seems that for this year, you are essentially crediting Mahomes as the better QB simply because he has a better defense and thus one less loss than Allen and the Bills. It is a bit odd because it would seem the QB that has the lesser defense should be credited with more value and success, not less.
I really don’t think win/loss matters a whole lot assuming the team looks like a contender. It’s pretty much a stats only award which has Allen in the thick of it. It’s a flavor of the week thing who the ‘favorite’ is this early in the season and josh/the bills deservedly won’t be the flavor of the week for awhile after blowing that pats game
I thought mahomes had a huge edge with teams like the broncos left on the schedule but he stumbled today. -
41 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Legitimately do not get the people who have such a hard on for Allen but go off I guess😂😂
Lol I really think this is mostly imaginary in the more pessimist fans heads. I don’t see a lot of josh Allen defenders saying he’s perfect and can do no wrong, but I see a lot of people saying ‘why does everyone think josh can do no wrong’ haha
the dude absolutely has flaws but all the mvp candidates have fallen on their face numerous times this season is the point. If we’re going to nitpick josh not showing up for 60 minutes every game, that level of criticism has to be applied to all others also up for the award. none of these guys are perfect, they are all missing reads and not setting protections right occasionally and so on
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23 minutes ago, FireChans said:
10 points in 55 minutes is a bad day. The 2 TD's were the late game heroics.
Oh, what's also hilarious is that the defense forced a clutch TO to even GIVE Josh the chance to take the lead. Without the Poyer punch, Josh may have never touched the ball again.
That damn defense letting Josh down lmao.
My point was that the MVP award is a combination of wins and stats. If you have more losses (ie less wins), your chance to win the award goes down.
Football is rarely perfectly linear on offense quarter to quarter…I don’t really know why anyone would completely discount late game touchdowns like that.
it’s pretty often that it takes time for an offense to adapt and they start scoring late and win the game . 25 points is 25 points, that would have beat the patriots by at least 4 in any other game they played this year
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48 minutes ago, Process said:
"Miraculously steal" lol
I’m convinced no one watches any non bills games all season lol
SF has been struggling for weeks now, cincy beating them doesn’t mean they’re some unbeatable juggernaut.
philly has never really ran away with a game all year
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Just now, BBFL said:
Bolton done for the year or was it not season ending IR? Guy is a stud for that D. Few decent pieces; Jones/Bolton/Sneed/McDuffSupposedly he needs wrist surgery and will be out about two months
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49 minutes ago, zow2 said:
Even tho i’ve been peeved that Miami plays at Kansas City, but NOT at Arrowhead… i am very pleased that the Phins get them off a KC loss. Reid will have their full attention this week and ready.
I’m afraid that now that they lost nick Bolton they’re just not a great team. The defense was anchoring their team this year
I guess someone having to lose between kc and Miami isn’t the end of the world though
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1 minute ago, jkeerie said:
That's why you can't discount all the Bills defensive losses. That needs to be acknowledged as part of the dialogue in the Bills struggle.
We’d be 7-1 if we had one of Milano/jones/tre white/healthy von miller all season imo
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Week 9 thread - We’re on to Cincinnati
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
lac is a huge game if we’re talking wildcard…in all my scenarios I’m just assuming cincy or baltimore is the top wildcard spot. The chargers are as inconsistent or more than the bengals and bills though and they’re starting in a bit of a hole with an extra loss.
They’ve also got ravens,bills,chiefs,lions on the schedule still so we are far from the only team with tough games left. Also the jets as well which is the part nobody really accounts for in threads like this. In those scenarios one of two wildcard hopefuls is guaranteed to drop a game