Generic_Bills_Fan
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Posts posted by Generic_Bills_Fan
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8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Well that's crazy if they believed that. Before last night Knox had an abysmal 15.6% drop rate. His drop on that play was not officially credited as a drop, but that was a predictable outcome. When you combine his drop rate with all the other little things that can go wrong on a pass play, plus you know Knox has a wrist/hand injury, that was inherently a low percentage play. Really just an awful play call in that situation, choosing to rely on a low percentage player in a critical moment.
I feel like you and I both know that is a massively exaggerated way to sum up how that play went wrong. I certainly respect the run and punt side of the argument but come on now lol it was a laughably wide open pitch and catch under 0 pressure. You could’ve called two random fans down there to play qb and TE and they probably complete that half the time 😂 a qb throwing lasers with instant pressure in his face all second half turning that wide open throw into a 50/50 ball was wildly unlikely but I def respect everyone’s right to criticize
It’s just as likely elam gives up a big play and the giants end up punching it in on the run and punt situation to win the game and we’d all be sitting here criticizing that decision too.. they moved the ball down the sideline in chunks quite a few times
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11 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Why is aggressive inherently good? What ever happened to context? We're facing the worst offense in football. They've scored 1 offensive TD in the previous 11 quarters of game time. They have a backup QB, a gimpy RB, and missing several OL including their stud LT. We can pin them back inside the 20 with zero timeouts and 1 minute to drive for a TD, or we can risk giving them the ball at midfield with 1 timeout. Why in that scenario is aggressive the right mindset?
I do think the odds change a bit down the stretch where defenses start to get fatigued and they’re in four down territory…it’s not like they weren’t moving the ball all night. My thought is if elam wasn’t on the field we probably run once and punt but with a pretty moderate liability out there on defense they didn’t feel as comfy as they otherwise would have. There’s always a decent chance of a deep pi call these days completely neutralizing the field position advantage.
your last sentence is what I really don’t understand but that could be a me thing I don’t think anyone is inherently wrong here lol the criticism side is factoring in the third and fourth down decisions as a lump single decision so why would the pro side not be allowed to factor in the odds of the Knox pass OR the fg succeeding. Those odds of winning the game were likely just as high or higher than the run on third down and punt. It wouldn’t have made sense to throw and then punt so the decision to kick the fg was more than likely made when that throw to Knox was called
the alternative is to weigh the 3rd down play and 4th down play success rate separately…the criticism side doesn’t get to have it both ways imo.
I explained my point way better here than my previous rambling nonsense post so hopefully nobody reads the old one 😂.
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11 hours ago, HappyDays said:
I hate these newfangled "win probability" calculators. I'm not inherently anti-analytics by any means, but I feel like this tool is fundamentally flawed in a way that no one talks about. The issue is that it doesn't account for a wild swing in momentum depending on the outcome of the play. Like in that example with the Eagles, throwing it on 3rd and 9 has a lot of potentially negative outcomes that wildly swing the win probability in the Jets direction. There is one outstanding outcome that guarantees a win, but also several negative outcomes that make your chances much worse. Whereas playing it safe with a run and then punting, you know with 99% certainty you are just mildly shifting win probability towards the Jets. There isn't much variance in that decision. The win probability calculator can't truly know how likely any given outcome is if you play aggressive or play conservative, so it is just guessing on certain variables and pops out a number that a ton of analytics people treat like gospel. But it isn't, there is still a ton of context that the calculator can't possibly capture. So personally I will almost always take the lower variance option (which is usually the conservative option) unless I am facing an offense or a QB that I expect to move the ball on my defense.
I don't know if I explained that too well, but it's bothered me ever since I first saw these win probability calculators pop out of the blue several years ago and everybody immediately bought into them without any hint of skepticism.
Our decision at the end of the Giants game is a good example of why I feel this way. We ran the only possible series of plays (pass followed by a FG attempt) that would have given the Giants a decent chance at a win. McDermott would rightfully be getting blasted today if the coin flip ending had gone in the other direction. Honestly he SHOULD be getting blasted but the media forgets those mistakes in a win.
From talkin about this for awhile I think this is all a really interesting debate that can vary wildly based on how you assign probabilities to things. It’s true without a doubt that it would be questioned more if they lost.
For me personally the coaches had a strong feeling that the throw to knox was a high percentage play based on what the giants defense had been doing to defend the run up to that point and it’s game over right there.
it’s hard for me to personally say that part of it was a bad decision because it worked like an absolute charm…I think they hit that play probably 9 out of 10 times and much like they’re getting criticized now for it not working they’d look smart if it did. Can absolutely see the other side of it though
As far as where the coaches were coming from I think they saw the odds of that play succeeding as much higher than a coin flip. Whether they should’ve or not is certainly up for debate lol -
11 hours ago, Alpo Chino said:
You can't go into a 2 play scenario thinking it's 75% that one of these will work. For example.. your odds of picking up a yard if you run 2 QB sneaks in a row is probably like 90%. But say.. you're deep in your own territory and you don't get it on the first try, it doesn't mean you should go for it again because it's 90% that it should work this time. You need to adjust to in-game scenarios... A 53 yard field goal is still 50/50 and if you miss, you give them a HUGE advantage at winning.. From roughly about 5% to 25% chance at winning. A 5X probability increase. THAT'S FREAKIN HUGE! There's no way analytics would favor a FG right there. This is all just my napkin math, but how much better would you have felt with Tyrod having to go 90 yards in 90 seconds as opposed to 57 yards with a timeout? I was so uneasy with them starting at midfield. But I wouldn't have had a worry in the world if they started from their own 10.
This is gonna be a big time agree to disagree I think 😂 obviously I’m not an nfl coach so you absolutely could be right but I’d imagine coaches plan for two play scenarios all the time…like a running play on third and medium because they have a passing play they like for fourth and short if they don’t pick it up. I think they absolutely crunch numbers on two play scenarios and likely had the thought that the fg is 50/50 when they called that play to Knox so factoring in the probability of both plays is exactly what they’re doing. If they didn’t have a passing play they liked on third down or didn’t like the odds of the fg they more than likely would’ve ran it and punted so the Knox catch probability is directly related to the fg probability. Again all speculation though because I am some dummy that watches the game from my couch lol
I think they probably had a third and long passing play in mind before they even got the ball because that was the scenario they were most likely to end up in.
I have trouble hating on the call because he was wide freakin open haha to each their own but when we’re evaluating the decision making of the coaches at the time I feel like I’d give a little bit more weight to the play design worked perfectly than the actual result. That’s certainly a personal taste thing though. If josh threw up a 50/50 ball to knox because nobody got any separation I’d be with the run and punt crew.
I do get your point that they’re kind of separate events because you can technically punt after the throw to Knox but I think when the numbers get crunched they look several plays ahead. It was probably the odds of it being impossible to lose in regulation vs punting and playing defense when the Knox call was made and it’s personal taste whether that’s the right way to look at it. If the throw to Knox goes incomplete the giants have time and a timeout so the odds shift a good amount.
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4 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:
So were the Giants. I hope they pull it together.
Giants got saquon back and their opponent lost their best player Daniel jones lol. In all seriousness though, Dexter Lawrence WRECKED the bills last night. Reminded me of all the times chris jones single handedly ruined us a few years ago. Pats just haven’t had that kind of impact player in the trenches this year
9 minutes ago, Success said:Man - I checked a few Pats boards, and already lost count of the bitter, past-obsessed sentiments of "remind Bills fans they have 0 Super Bowls, and we have 6." Pre-game cope knowing that they have the ol' snowball's chance on Sunday.
I knew I'd enjoy the day when all they can talk about is how good they USED to be. Gonna appreciate every one of these match-ups while we have Allen.
Not as bad as the dolphins fans using the rings argument when they haven’t won one since the 70s
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Offensive line problems, offensive line problems, and offensive line problems lol olines are just completely outmatched these days and the gap is getting bigger in favor of the defensive line. Even these ‘bad’ teams are loaded with disruptive players on the dline
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28 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
I've learned the opposite actually.
In hindsight you run the ball three times and punt and the Giants likely never cross midfield. But that is hindsight.
I recall it happening probably 5-6 years ago. Think it was a prime-time game but can't recall the game. But yes, it is very rare. Yesterday was certainly a game it could have happened and I'm not sure folks would be irate if it did.
The pi they actually called was way too ticky tacky to call a second in a row at the end of a game unless someone got straight up tackled with the ball in the air. I don’t have a problem with people complaining the second one was missed but the first one never should’ve been called imo…not the way that game was officiated. I was seeing a lot of grabbed jerseys
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9 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:
I honestly think we would have sleptwalked this vs Danny Dimes. He holds the ball wayyyyy too long. Taylor is still a good QB (not great, but good enough). He had them in this the whole game and a lot of that is thanks to his quick release and playing relatively safe.
Tyrod is so much better than Daniel Jones for the giants current situation
7 hours ago, eball said:I love what Taron Johnson said about it. He basically said "if they call it they call it, but I was going to play it aggressively." Love that attitude.
The whole thing is much ado about nothing. Jerseys were gettin grabbed all night (mostly by the giants). Two big uncalled holds killed bills drives
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9 minutes ago, Chaos said:
So your saying, if the point total is low, its unreasonable to expect a "good" defense to stop a team with five backup lineman and a back up QB to stop a game winning drive?
People aren’t really understanding the link between offense and defense it feels like…our defense can’t get anyone off the field which leads to worse field position, being behind on TOP, and the opposing defense stays fresher.
the giants defense has been hung out to dry by their offense all year long so nobody really knows what they are capable of. They actually possessed the ball on offense decently for once which allowed that defense to fly all over the field for all four quarters. Usually they play well then gas out just before halftime because their offense has like 30 yards with 1 or 2 first downs lol then they put some long meaningless drive together in garbage time to even out the numbers a bit
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Giants were holding all night on offense and defense…that seemed like their game plan as I’m sure Daboll watched the chiefs shut the bills down like that time after time when he was OC loL. its one of life’s greatest ironies that this much hoopla is being made about one missed hold late in the game.
goal line/short yardage defense was outstanding. Second half josh was outstanding. Guys we haven’t had much faith in continue to play well on the defensive side.
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52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
You mean the offense that was also one of the most productive...more productive actually...before Dorsey. But because the offense is "still" productive Dorsey gets a pass and shouldn't be questioned, criticized or held accountable for anything? Thats really your stance? Wow.
The same offense that had 7 points midway through the 4th quarter the last 2 games? And lets be honest, it should also be a 2 game losing streak because of the offense, but we got a gift last night...which I will take, but that doesn't make me feel better about the offense. The same offense that also was grossly outcoached and laid an egg in the playoffs. The same offense that even Diggs said everything was just harder on offense last year. The same offense where the redzone effieiency plummeted under Dorsey last year. The same offense that had people saying Allen was regressing last year.
But because Allen is so good that the offense still produces you give Dorsey a pass. Makes even less sense to me especially since our losses and near loss last night were all offensive related.
All good though, no hard feeling either way. We can agree to disagree, no problem. Cheers
Meh I wouldn’t say they got a gift…should’ve been pi late technically but the giants got away with a ton of holding all game long too. I was honestly surprised they called the first pi to close out the game based on what the giants were getting away with.
davis got held on a probable td on the first drive…this pic everyone is using to illustrate we are apparently forcing the ball to diggs in double coverage diggs got held and that was a possible td also. Guys grab jerseys all night long it was kind of surprising to see it called late. Normally guys are only doing that late because they know they’ve been getting away with it.
it’s tough to evaluate Dorsey… last year I think Josh’s elbow nuked the underneath passing game cuz his accuracy was shot and this year we’ve looked great when the offensive line holds up but those guys got absolutely steamrolled last night. Even these highly acclaimed play callers like Andy Reid and Ben Johnson’s offenses look pretty terrible when their offensive line is getting whooped.
idk that the jags loss/almost giants loss are ‘all offense related’. It’s a little more nuanced than that. The defense couldn’t really get either teams offense off the field which really hurt field position and kept the opposing defenses fresh. The giants defense has been completely hung out to dry by their offense all season so we really don’t even know what those guys are capable of. Dexter Lawrence is a near Chris jones level beast. Look at their 40-0 loss to the cowboys, the cowboys had less offensive yards than we did last night if you can believe that lol
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5 hours ago, Einstein said:
We need some WR's that can separate.
Look at this play - Diggs is double covered and not a single other receiving option can get seperation.Diggs was actually the only one open on that play until getting held lol that’s exactly who the ball should’ve gone to and was probably a td…ball was put right where it needed to be. The ball is not at all getting forced to diggs…the giants baited him into some throws where linebackers dropped underneath and josh didn’t see them though
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6 hours ago, Alpo Chino said:
Sometimes simple is good. It's about 50/50 that Bass makes that fg. Not really high %. If he misses that Giants get the ball at the 43 yard line, not the 36. So even if they punt for a touchback, it's 23 yards of field position at the very least, not 16. So Tyrod led offense driving 85+ yards for a TD with 90 seconds with no timeouts, I'd have to give that about a 5-8% chance of happening. But only having to go 57 yards with a timeout? I would give that about a 25-30% of happening. Big increase. I feel like analytics would heavily favor running the ball, make the gmen use up their timeouts and go almost the length of the field. jmho.
I def flubbed the yard lines for sure haha but I think the advanced metrics probably said go for it which is why we did it. Even if that pass to Knox and fg are both 50/50 it’s a 75% chance of hitting on one of those things
then you gotta factor in the odds you actually pin them deep rather than a touchback…it was probably pretty close either way
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14 minutes ago, Process said:
2 TDs and one pick doesn't hurt him a lot. Still leads the league in TDs on the season.
Dolphins schedule is a joke. If Tua stays healthy he is going to put up MVP numbers. Might come down to who wins the division.
He’s almost out of his joke portion though and mahomes has nearly a full division slate of joke games. The dolphins have played like 4 of the bottom 5 teams already 😂 I really thought our pass blocking turned the corner and this was gonna be Josh’s year but that does not seem to be the case. He’s still got a chance though
The 1 pick didn’t hurt in itself but his total is a little high on the year and the low yardage total doesn’t help.. I wish they looked into the context a little more for mvp votes cuz the vast majority of Allen’s picks have been pretty good arm punts that strategically didn’t really hurt
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On 10/12/2023 at 5:30 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
doesn’t feel like a Mahomes MVP year to me. Not with where he is at now number wise and with what is happening in San Francisco.Goff could be a good dark horse MVP.
The defenses in his division are so poopy though that I think he’s got a good chance. Tua is lucky the giants offense was completely inept last week he pretty much threw the game away on a couple picks if their offense could do anything
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3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
BTW, Allen is top 5 or so in pretty much all major statistical categories for QBs and still leads the NFL in completion % and TDs.
This was a weird game…like it wasn’t even that ‘ugly’ per se. The giants were just winning up front handedly. There were a few flukey plays keeping points off the board for both teams and a couple super long drives in the second half…felt like a 23-20 type game to me
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That game should’ve helped his mvp case but with it being a primarily statistical award with 0 context it will hurt him a lot
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Just now, Gugny said:
That is squarely on Beane.
Belichick did a great job building a round his top tier QB and it resulted in rings.
Oh yea I wouldn’t argue that…pass blocking still seems to be a huge issue. The run blocking it appears he’s righted the ship on a bit though. So disheartening because it seemed like we may have had it figured out…even against the jets they didn’t look that bad
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18 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
Also, as one in the comments section notes, run game is FAR improved over last year, by the naked eye
So weird I really thought the offensive line turned the corner in a well rounded way but it appears to be mostly in run blocking. The jags were wise to this and absolutely loaded the box knowing their rushers would get home on a passing play anyway…probably could’ve stood to run the ball more against the giants but to really commit to the run I feel like you’ve gotta be confident you can pick up a 3rd and medium passing the football and that did not seem to be the case last night
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22 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
Fair
At the same time, you can always adjust to assist yourself, that's hardly a forte of ours, ... attributable to coaching.
Secondly, did the team seem prepared to play yesterday? It didn't to me, and many others, which again, would be attributable to coaching.
I think this is happening because we are adjusting for a bad offensive line though that’s the interesting part…this is a very damned if you do damned if you don’t situation. You’re giving up the route tree of one/two skill position players to shore up the oline.
We probably could’ve run the ball under center more too I think that’s a valid criticism but that would’ve brought up more third and mediums likely that I’m not sure we would convert.
I’ve watched the giants play all year being in downstate ny lol and their defense is honestly pretty good and a lot of their strengths are up front. Theyve got a great DT which always gives us problems. They’ve probably had the toughest starting schedule in the league and the giants miserable offense has been putting them in absolutely terrible situations. if their offense played a little better last week they would’ve absolutely been in the game vs Miami who had two huge turnovers.
our defense has gone blameless because they’re fighting an uphill battle due to injuries but they gave up some long drives which kept our offense off the field…we only had 9 total drives. if you’re gonna miss all your fg attempts 14 points on 9 total drives when your offensive line is getting smoked sounds about right. If we had the typical 11-12 total drives we probably score 20
I think at least a portion of this outrage is the result of fans not really understanding the opponent. To me it was just as much about our defense not being able to prevent long drives limiting our offense as our offense limiting our offense. Some of that was due to unintentionally benching absolute clown Daniel jones for a qb with more mobility and some was saquon returning…hard to say how good/bad this current iteration of the giants offense is though
Also when we started to get them on the ropes to begin the cycle of gassin out their defense the giants conveniently started a big fight that bought them like 10 minutes to catch their breath I thought that was pretty bush league from Daboll but it was pretty clever lol
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18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
There's quite clearly a recurring issue on the offensive side of the ball, and it's not always involving the same players or unit. That means that it's clearly a coaching issue. What kind of a coaching issue I suppose that everyone can have their opinion on, but it seems pretty obvious to me that Dorsey's in over his head and/or he's simply not good. 22 games into his tenure these issues should not exist. He's got more than other OCs that aren't nearly as inconsistent have to work with.
Then there's this blatant disconnect between McD and everything that's offensively oriented, as if to suggest that because he's "defensive-minded" that somehow it's not his responsibility, which is ridiculous.
I appreciate it loyalty as Bills fans, but sorry to say, this coaching staff is not anything even close to an ideal fit for the talent that the team has presently.
It's going to continue to be a handicap in the playoffs.
I really don’t know if I’m taking crazy pills or something but it seems as simple as…pass blocking bad offense bad. Pass blocking good offense good to me for years now lol
if we hold up up front we destroy teams typically. Idk if people don’t want to believe this or they want to blame the qb/skill position players/ play design or what but the OL was a massive issue last night to the point where who even knows what the play design is? Everything broke down pretty much instantly. And you’ve got skill position players in chipping to help the OL out and they’re still getting smoked so that’s limiting the route tree of one/multiple pass catchers just to not quite hold up in pass protection.
people are like ohhh Ben Johnson in Detroit what a genius…one of the best offensive lines. Oh Andy Reid another genius….perennially one of the best offensive lines. Oh eagles OC from last year that I forgot the name of lol genius…one of the best offensive lines. Games where their olines don’t hold up they look just as bad as anyone else. Look at philly and kc vs the jets this year
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10 minutes ago, Malazan said:
Whos' feeling better about their team right now, Jets fans or Bills fans?
Bills undoubtedly once people settle down in the next few days lol they would trade places with us in an instant
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25 minutes ago, Billl said:
Really? You don't think any other QB could win a home game against a Giants team that scored a total of 9 points?
Idk why everyone is hung up on ‘it was the giants’…I don’t care who it was…their front 7 absolutely obliterated us to levels no other team that is supposedly way better on paper has this year. You plug any other qb in there not named mahomes and they have absolutely no shot at making any of those drive extending plays last night. Not sure it’s even debatable. I mean, y’all can continue with the ‘you don’t think anyone else can score on the giants’ shtick but that is very clearly not what I meant 😂.
Idk if it was Daboll knowing our OL tendencies or the giants defense finally not being on the field for 45 minutes or what but they absolutely roasted us up front. Dexter Lawrence has unquestionably been a beast all season though so idk how ridiculously surprising it is
there were also quite a few loooong drives for both teams in this one. Normally the giants go instantly three and out lol we got 9 total drives in this one
people sayin geno scored on the giants why couldn’t the bills should probably review the stat line from that game…pretty much the entire Seahawks offensive output came on one busted coverage with lock at qb…Seahawks had even less total yardage than us on two more drives. Cowboys had less total yardage than us also in their 40-0 win if you can believe that 🤣. Dak was 13/24 for 143 yards. They did a decent job against tua…he just cracked 300 yards but he turned it over twice.
The giants offense has been what is losing them games.. they have been historically awful up until
this game. Everything snowballs for them because they are a blitz heavy team and their guys gas out when their offense goes three and out ten times in a row. I think the Daniel jones injury really helped them out, tyrod is the kind of qb they need. He will not make a mistake leading to a sudden change for his defense and he’s got more mobility than jones
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8 hours ago, Alpo Chino said:
Yes it was extremely questionable. About a 5% chance Giants drive 90 yards with 1:30.
A bit of an oversimplification…what are the odds you can’t complete that throw to the TE and miss that fg. Also you’ve gotta still punt the ball out at the 10 lol if it was a touchback it was only like 16 yards of field position change for a chance to end the game.
They just missed back to back pretty high percentage plays to win the game and now everybody is playing the hindsight game
5% chance is a weird number to assign even if the punt was guaranteed to be as good as you’re saying they had to go an extra 25 yards in 4 down territory where a td wins it vs giving up two very high percentage chances of ending the game
The biggest blunder of the game IMO
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
It just feels like the hindsight game to me personally but I respect the opinion for sure. Unless we could visit the alternate timeline where we punted there I guess we’ll truly never know 😂.
the way I see it it was the odds of those two guys not connecting on a probably wide open pass and bass missing the fg vs running and punting and holding them but I can see people not interpreting it that way