Generic_Bills_Fan

It’s a really interesting situation…looking back in the past it’s mostly been players winning it on the best team but you can’t really point to a time where they obviously passed up somebody with better stats because there were better teams either lol I really don’t know what would even happen in a hypothetical scenario where maybe he is pretty clearly the best statistical qb but the bills snag a wildcard or are the 4 seed or something like that I do understand the point you’re making for sure but +1400 for the guy leading in tds thats team is only a game behind the division/conference leader with an opportunity against a lot of heavy hitters feels like pretty good value. I’d roll the dice on it if it was legal in this state 😂. I figure he should be in the +700/+800 range in what I’d put his chances at of goin off in the second half. I was pretty shocked to see +1400

Davante Adams to buffalo would be pretty funny after he publicly complained about that Taylor rapp hit lol he basically said rapp has to play dirty because he’s bad

Has to be…they are in this game if he doesn’t miss a laughably wide open davante adams there

He’s younger than Derrick Henry lol

Haha it was a jokey way to say I watched the bengals play a lot this year 😂 yeesh. You said stats don’t matter, I countered with I’ve been watching the games I’m not just looking at a stat sheet. Then I added SF got whooped in the trenches on the offensive side of the ball because they were down two huge pieces on the oline. All super relevant info to your earlier retort about how the bengals are more physical on both sides of the ball. I literally replied directly to your ‘narrative’ and refuted it with factual information…you just don’t agree which is fine

Ohhhh that is the issue I’m having haha that explains a lot Yea it’s a bit surprising to me that he’s the leader in tds and only a game behind the dolphins/chiefs with one to play against both those teams and he still has long shot odds

Lol I mean it’s not just stats I’ve seen them getting gashed in the trenches every week. I shelled out for the good ol Sunday ticket 😂 49ers without Trent brown/Deebo and Aaron banks going down midgame were a lot easier to manhandle than they would’ve been normally. If we were in a similar situation and had to play cincy without diggs and a few starting offensive linemen I would absolutely agree with the sentiment here that we’d get utterly humiliated. Right now I think cincy being a 1.5-3.5 point favorite sounds about right

Trying to place that bet as we speak lol I think he’s one good game in the national spotlight away from jumping to +400 At some point even if the team only wins 10 games I feel like his stats could be a tier above everyone to the point where they might have to give it to him but I have genuinely no idea how they’d handle that if it happens 😂.

This is shaping up to be a really interesting season of mvp voting…I think just based on his situation of having to carry the defense every week josh is probably gonna finish with the best stats. Not sure how many wins it will translate to though. the futures bets do seem to be heavily influenced by who’s winning but that could be partly factoring in certain guys turning it around. Hurts is up near the top in futures betting but if the season ended today I don’t think he’d have a chance. Mahomes lost some skill position talent but his defense has stepped up, I thought he was a sure thing based on the schedule remaining but that broncos loss hurt. Tua will keep roasting bad teams but he’s got a great running game that encroaches on his stats a bit. josh at +1200 seems like a pretty insane value bet for a guy that’s leading in some major statistical categories right now.

If this year taught me anything there’s no automatic wins or automatic losses. A week ago KC looked like a guaranteed loss but now a week later with no nick Bolton they look very beatable. Cowboys are just the NFC version of us that is wildly inconsistent, philly don’t seem unbeatable either. We could win or lose any of those games and there’s just no sense in trying to predict anything 😂

They’re 29th in rushing ypg and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game. I think that’s a much different game Sunday if Trent brown and Deebo were available…they racked up 400 plus yards without those guys. not saying we’ll win but cincys single game against sf is getting a little bit overblown imo,they haven’t looked like that all year even in their wins.

Oh yea he’s valuable for sure but asking for two firsts and a pro bowler ‘just to get the conversation started’ seems like a hard line negotiation tactic. They would take that deal in an absolute instant if anyone was crazy enough to offer that (which I doubt anyone would be) rams traded two 1sts and a fourth for Ramsey from the jags and even that was a ton.

That seems a bit hyperbolic from their side haha they’ll certainly want more than we would offer though.. no way anyone gives them that. the two firsts is already pushing it before getting to the pro bowler 😂

The X factor for cincy has always been defense to me, and I don’t think their defense has reached close to the heights of last season yet…doesn’t mean they won’t Sunday though. They held SF to 17 but so did Minnesota the week before and Cleveland the week before that, SF also piled up 400ish non garbage time yards missing their best offensive player against cincy they just turned it over a few too many times. last year the bengals were all over the top 10 of the list in all advanced defensive metrics, this year they’re a little under the midpoint. we moved the ball pretty well on a tough TB defense too which was getting a ton of credit around here before the game with people predicting we’d lose because of it but I don’t see it mentioned much anymore lol I think we’re in for a shootout

Cincy may be good but people are hypin them up a bit too much from that one win…if SF was looking dominant leading up to that bengals game it would be a different story. really they just beat a mediocre at best team by two scores who amassed a ton of yards and had a couple boneheaded turnovers. Sf almost outgained their previous two games combined in this one. I’m expecting a shootout on Sunday that could go either way based on red zone success.

lac is a huge game if we’re talking wildcard…in all my scenarios I’m just assuming cincy or baltimore is the top wildcard spot. The chargers are as inconsistent or more than the bengals and bills though and they’re starting in a bit of a hole with an extra loss. They’ve also got ravens,bills,chiefs,lions on the schedule still so we are far from the only team with tough games left. Also the jets as well which is the part nobody really accounts for in threads like this. In those scenarios one of two wildcard hopefuls is guaranteed to drop a game

Oh yea you didn’t say 3 are likely to make it from the north explicitly but you listed a bunch of wildcard competitors to highlight the position were in. There really are not that many for the reason that 3 are in the same division is what I was saying. They have to beat eachother up which hurts conference record and overall record. And if one catches fire and clears the other ones out that’s not exactly bad for us either as it’s 2 less teams we’d be competing for a wildcard with. the teams we have lost to so far aren’t really serious wildcard threats which helps a ton. Jacksonville will win the south, pats won’t make it, jets likely won’t make it. If they’re in the mix, they have lost to NE also for divisional record purposes and I don’t see them beating Miami. If they do beat Miami, it helps our division standings the other teams like cincy and lac we play head to head so conference records are not really that meaningful for us at all we’re really not in a bad spot at all and the playoffs look very likely. There aren’t a whole lot of good afc teams this year

Three of those teams you mentioned are in the same division and one of them has to lose every time they play eachother. 4 playoff teams coming out of the north is very very very very unlikely. It’s more than likely going to get whittled down to one wildcard team at best (or 0) then you’ve got teams like the chargers who have as many or more issues than us. I’ll give cincy the benefit of the doubt making cincy/baltimore a wildcard team but who are the other two teams making it over us? Bills are probably 75%ish to make the playoffs right now and have a very good shot even if they don’t win the division.

It seems like when someone is just analyzing the play of their own team, they are comparing to a hypothetically perfect team that can do no wrong and makes no mistakes which leads to a lot of pessimism because we are not even close to that level. When you benchmark teams against eachother, things start to normalize a bit because no team is perfect. Cincy has had a ton of issues this season and their fans have likely been raising the same kinds of complaints over on their board as we are here. They have been one of the worst teams at running the football, the defense hasn’t been as good as last season, the offense is wildly inconsistent and rarely shows up for 60 minutes

I don’t think the general sentiments about the bills struggles is wrong…what’s makin this game closer than most on here expect for me is the successes of Cincinnati are being blown massively out of proportion and I’m less high on them than others. Pretty much any criticism you can raise of the bills would directly apply to cincy as well…these are two eerily similar teams that are very inconsistent. I would not be surprised by anything in this one

I wouldn’t do it…that’s too much money for two of the most inconsistent good teams in the league playing against eachother If it were me I’d wait to let people overreacting to the niners game push the spread up and then take the bills with the points.. the most likely outcome I have is bills come up just short in a shootout if you’re gonna bet bengals I’d do it right now though lol

Here’s where I get a little lost…I keep hearing about this cincy defense that’s gonna destroy us and so on,TB may be mediocre overall but that defense is legit and we moved the ball well against them. if we were more concerned with their offense we likely go for those 4th and shorts, pick up a couple and score 30+. They are better than cincys defense so far this season in just about every way and leading the league in red zone defense. im not saying the ‘we’re gonna lose’ crew is wrong in their prediction at all necessarily, but they are doling out credit for this weeks results in a pretty unrealistic way which is inflating the bengals a bit too much imo. The deeboless 49ers aren’t really a whole lot better than the buccaneers. They’re 0-3 and were 0-2 against very mediocre opponents leading up to the cincy game. Their offense has been pretty awful and they put up 460 yards against cincy which isn’t far off from being more than their previous two games combined I don’t think Buffalo and cincy are far apart and they have both struggled for a stretch of this season…anything could happen. Bengals as a small favorite makes perfect sense to me so I’m not sure they’re a tier above us at all.

I’m not sure that it is undervalued going into the game but you may end up making your money anyway so who cares haha. I think the logic is the bengals have looked good one game against a team that has been in a free fall the last few weeks. Everyone is getting hung up on it being the 49ers but the 49ers have been a mess for nearly a month now. we’re in here talking about the bengals physical defense but the bucs defense is better by every advanced metric and we moved the ball pretty well on them. It’s gonna come down to who gets more red zone stops so I’ve got it as a 50/50 game at a neutral site/slight cincy favorite at home buffalo and cincy are both near tops in the league in preventing tds in the red zone and TB is number 1. Red zone offense we are second in the league in TD percentage with Miami at 1.

The 49ers are lost without Deebo…we may lose for sure but this notion that the bengals beat a juggernaut is objectively false.

Not saying your point is wrong but a lot of teams do it that way lol I think the thought is you still won’t be adjusted either way so might as well stick to your preparation/recovery schedule