Generic_Bills_Fan

The odds of the projected favorite winning every game are astronomically small. That is not a realistic way to predict anything. Especially if they are a small favorite. If you’re a 60/40 favorite in back to back games the odds of winning both of those games is 36%. Not to mention you’re looking at the favorites now when the favorites need to be re evaluated before each game. For example browns may be the favorite over all those teams you mentioned now but if they go out and get destroyed next game that may not be the case I mean they activated his 21 day practice window. And even if Rodgers doesn’t come back the browns and jets are both good defenses with terrible qbs. It’s a pretty safe bet browns lose at least one of bears jets and bengals

I don’t know why those are guaranteed wins for them is the point I was making…pj walker and DTR are as bad or worse than browning they could be playing the jets with Aaron Rodgers by week 17 also.

Oooh the wording sounded like you were saying if we go 5-0 we’re a 13% chance which is not true…its an uphill battle overall but a 5-0 finish we are nearly guaranteed to get in The dvoa methodology actually gives us more of a chance than other predictions so I was confused at what you were sayin lol I think the one benefit we have is the vast majority of these fellow wildcard competitors have somewhere between bad and terrible qbs right now.. like I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if a team like Cleveland finished 1-5.

Are you sure that’s not 13.5% chance TO go 5-0 lol 5-0 finish and we are 99% in by any playoff simulator I’ve seen our odds to get in at 4-1 are considerably better than that 13.5 number it looks like DVOA is giving us a 13.5% chance to get in right now with no assumptions about future wins. We are the 4th rated team in the afc by their DAVE metric and we walloped the 3rd rated team so I don’t think you’re interpreting the numbers correctly

He led by a whopping 1 last year and if josh dobbs ceased to exist he’d be leading by a whopping 1 this year with an extra game played on a lot of guys that are 2 behind 😂. That’s far from a guarantee he’ll lead it again the end of this year. Y’all make it sound like he’s got 10 more than anyone else but really he’s right in line with a bunch of guys that get far less touches

Criticism of Phillips on this specific play relies on the refs being completely blind to an obvious false start because the league must love the tush push/brotherly shove branding lol. Phillips went when Kelce started his bs illegal antics before snapping the ball seems like the key to being successful in the nfl is coming up with a cool name for things…’sauce’ Gardner can hold virtually whenever he wants because he’s got a recognizable nickname too 😂

I can’t even tell you how much kelces complaining bothered me haha the only way to stop that play is to jump the snap so that’s what absolutely every team should be doing. He obviously mistimed it a bit but I doubt he was intentionally trying to injure anybody

Player comparisons across teams are ridiculous enough in general…Josh is carrying more of the offensive load than any other player on any team and it’s not like his receivers are getting large amounts of separation consistently. Comparing his numbers on a stat sheet to mahomes just doesn’t even feel super relevant to me

He doesnt even lead the league in turnovers the current year when you posted this 😂 some ‘facts’ you’ve got lol

I’m getting pretty tired of the narrative and I might take a rainy day to go through actual impactful ints for each qb. Per attempt I guarantee tua and hurts are much higher and some other guys you wouldn’t even expect are probably higher also feels like a bunch of Josh’s this year have been on arm punts/a Hail Mary

The 6-6 feels a bit fluky to me personally. Bass missin relatively easy fgs in most close games and teams pulling off some of the most improbable plays of the year against us…the Sutton td and eagles fg/the prayer td to zaccheaus were just ridiculous. I don’t think we’ll win out but I think we’re a pretty good but not great team that’s had some rough luck

I’m so curious if belichick will give up gm responsibilities…I pity the team that hands him control of everything

I don’t really get why you would bring the sideline into play when you beat single coverage quick so I’m not sure I agree…just my two cents though could be meaningless 😂

I think over time a lot more people will agree with this…even if next gen stats got it perfectly accurate that’s a pretty unbelievable result that they ended up with a 20% chance to make the fg yes there were penalties but they had a down to get some of that yardage back and gained 0 yards the defense in ot was an unmitigated disaster though for sure

Does that factor in weather? That sounds much too high. And even so that is still a very unlikely play lol the only way to know for sure is to replay that moment a bunch of times haha

In fairness, that was like a 1/25 type fg make and even that feels generous. The defense held on to win a lot last year, this disappointing season seems to have given people fuzzy memories. Even in losses they pulled off some impressive holds like the Minnesota game where they had a pretty amazing goal line stand then the offense fumbled it away it’s kind of funny you mention the ravens game from two years ago because our defense saved the game with a late INT against that very same team the next season and you don’t remember it 😂 in total they stopped the opponent with a chance to win on a final drive in all these games: kc bal Min Mia x3 (defense had good field position game 1) partial credit for NYJ game 1 (long drive but held to a fg so we could tie with a fg. Plenty of time for the offense to at least tie who took over and did nothing) partial credit for NYJ game 2 (we were up 8 so the best they could do was tie) Partial credit for lions….(held to a fg to keep the game tied then the offense won it with 30 seconds left) so depending on how you look at it the defense held somewhere between 6-9 games. The rest of the games were pretty much blowout wins. Defense at least debatably held up in 100% of their opportunities on late drives

I don’t think a single coach in the league is going for it on 4th and 6 in ot there. Maybe some go for 2 on the td though idk. i try to look at it as ‘how bad do you flame them if the decision doesn’t work out’ and going for that 4th and 6 would’ve been horrendous if it didn’t work. Nobody would be patting the coaches on the back saying ‘at least your offense lost the game’ lol it would be an all time coaching gaffe 4th and short id totally agree with you but 4th and 6 in any weather is pretty tough and factoring in the bills dropped like 8 passes in the game makes it even more unlikely

I could def see it going either way on the defensive timeouts…holding your opponent to -5 yards there was huge is all I was trying to say. I can’t recall ever seeing an incomplete pass in that situation that was honestly kind of shocking the icing the kicker timeout was 100% unnecessary and gave us 0 value im curious if bass’ struggles factored in…like do you risk a turnover to kick a long fg in bad weather that he’s likely gonna miss anyway? Idk

A lot of that is skewed by opponents imo and being dominant when Milano/jones were healthy. Jets x2, bucs,broncos,giants, patriots, raiders were more than half our games and those offenses are trainwrecks. Advanced metrics that adjust for opponents like dvoa are much less favorable towards the bills. We were dead last in defensive dvoa for a pretty decent stretch after the Milano/jones injuries

I’m not a fan of the icing the kicker timeout but the defensive timeouts were followed up by a false start and a huge no gain play keeping them in miracle fg range. If they pick up 4-5 yards there they make the field goal considerably easier. We are all over the defensive timeouts when the result that follows is bad but nobody talks about them when there’s a good result. Of course the miracle worked out though because why wouldn’t it 😂. The odds of us winning on a missed fg if we held them to no gain on that third down were much much higher than us going down the field in 20 seconds with 3 timeouts imo. That fg was like a 1/100 type play still absolutely hate the icing the kicker timeout though so I think some of the criticism is completely justified

That’s kind of a self fulfilling prophecy though lol. Nobody would say Josh is elite either if he had the exact stats he’s had the last few years and the team hovered around .500. It’d be the same ‘he’s got good stats but he’s not a winner/they lose because he turns the ball over’ argument.. Herbert’s got 114tds, 41 ints, about 17k yards passing in his 4 year career. That’s an average season of 29 passing tds, 10ints, 4250 yards. Josh is 162tds(passing)/73 ints/21611 in 6 years. Averages of 27 passing tds/12 ints/3601 passing yards the bills defense has just been way better than the chargers in the regular season the last few years but this year we are full chargering it up by folding on defense with a chance to win every single time

This is a weird take…that’s a pretty high percentage field goal and a comfortable lead if you make it…if you go for it there and get it, you’re still not guaranteed 7 points and might just end up settling for a fg anyway punting there only nets you a few yards of field position

I thought he’d get a full season next year but now it feels like there’s a chance we dump him this offseason. I feel like the bar is probably winning record he stays

Sounds about right..that gets him to 70% which is just over his season average with a wet football against the eagles defense on the road. Couple miscommunications too that likely could’ve resulted in catches but it’s tough to know who’s to blame in those situations

How many of those were drops…he also had 81 rushing yards and 2 rushing tds