Generic_Bills_Fan

I just can’t see a top 5 dvoa team with 150ish net points missing the playoffs but i guess we’ll see 😂 I think a lot of it is the threat of josh Allen passing…there aren’t really a lot of good options to defend the bills when they have the run game working. At least if you pretty much force them to run one stop for a loss pretty much derails the drive.

I think the incompetent refs do their best to make the league look fixed because they will usually favor the better/bigger name team when a gamechanging call could go either way is it actually fixed though definitely not

Fresh off the kc game people were probably less likely to agree lol but they absolutely showed up against a lot of the tough defensive lines this year

I’d hold it against beane for waiting so long but I’m sure Joseph and the packers were trying to maximize value and weren’t gonna make any decisions long before the trade deadline

I mean the overall premise you’re spot on but that’s not how I personally saw that play at all…looked like Dak had a very late awkward slide attempt and rapp was lining up to drill him in the chest then tried to pull up to avoid him…didn’t hit him helmet to helmet at all and really barely contacted him to begin with the ‘luck’ part I was referring to was the very late slide by a qb…its gotten to the point where guys are sliding late just to draw a roughing call. There’s no doubt in my mind that’s what Dak was doing there…a split second before that hit he looked like he was fighting for every yard and you’re not really giving the defender any time to react to giving yourself up. Looked like number 9 on the cowboys tripped rapp up a bit also if he’s out there trying to take guys heads off then yea I agree but I genuinely don’t think he was there. There’s no way to know for sure though without being in rapps brain of course lol

That stretch post jags game and pre Douglas and Joseph arriving was really a killer this year. There’s just no way we lose the jags or pats game without that avalanche of injuries i get the every team has injuries thing but the injuries found our most important players on defense pretty much in order 😂 That definitely feels like it applies to Miami too…that one game the Miami offense really hurt us we were getting gashed on the ground and tua didn’t have to do too much

Lying? lol you said we can win 11 and miss…quite a few posters have said we need help. Neither of those statements paint anywhere near a complete picture of how much of an absolute fluke it would be if we win 11 and miss is all I was saying. Someone reading that would think we need to win 11 and get lucky to get in when in reality it’s so much of a near impossibility that some places are saying we’re in if we win out already 😂 13 seconds was much much more likely to occur than us missing the playoffs with 11 wins…chiefs had a 3% chance to win in that situation. This is being rounded down at calling it a 99.9% chance because they don’t go to a hundredths decimal place but even if it was just a 99.9% chance it would be 30 times as unlikely as ‘13 seconds’ for us to not get in

This current lineup would absolutely not have lost that pats game and probably the jags game either…that defense was straight up depleted. the jets really weren’t a joke until their olinemen started dropping like flies either…they probably should’ve beaten kc but they got reffed 🤣 and they beat Philly also denver was pretty bad though lol I don’t mean this in an excuse-y way it’s more to say that I don’t think the results of those earlier games have any impact on the probability of us losing to the chargers or pats. They’re likely both gonna be easy wins

If we had Douglas/joseph for that game I think it’s a two score win. O’Brien lucked out facing one of the worst defensive lineups in the league this year that week. I think Ed was out as well on top of no Daquan no Milano no tre white and von playing terrible in his big knee brace

Kyren Williams is on an absolute barn burning pace after missing 4 games in the middle of the season too…not sure how missing games factors into the all pro conversation though. He doesn’t do much in the passing game though

It feels like the disguised zone/late rotation into a different look really stumps a lot of qbs and quite a few ‘good’ ones. It felt like Dak was just deciding what his progressions were gonna be early on presnap and he stuck to it despite the defense clearly shifting into a different coverage. Tua has felt the same against us

People haven’t forgiven rapp for barreling into our own players a few times I think lol

Hard to tell how good hall is when the jets offensive line is about as bad as humanly possible 😂

His vision is infinitely better than Zack moss and singletary it feels like too…a lot of these runs weren’t massive holes opened up

This seems like the part people haven’t wrapped their heads around lol. These wildcard competitor teams could literally lose to anyone. Its why the Steelers went from 6-3 to 7-7

I think the chiefs are gonna be the problem on that final point…they’d have to drop one also because they have the h2h against the dolphins and should win out Baltimore probably will lose to SF and if they lose to Miami too they wouldn’t be an issue

That and defenders just can’t catch a tua interception that hits them right in the gut lol tua threw another gift wrapped pick six that was dropped yesterday Lawrence is doing his best to catch up in turnovers too…there’s like 12 players within a couple turnovers of Josh and Dobbs is still tied with him despite playing one less game

He hit Dak hard but it did look like he tried to pull up…Dak looked like he was gonna fight for more yards and rapp kind of pushed him backwards which made it look like a slide im sure Dallas was over there telling their guys the same thing…if josh is gonna fight for yards rushing the football hit him as hard as you can this is just a weird board sometimes…I’ve read the ‘were a finesse team that can’t play against a physical defense’ complaint over and over but when our defense absolutely flies all over the field making huge hits we also complain? if you’re hitting guys hard you’re destined to get a few of those unlucky ‘hit on a defenseless receiver’ and ‘hitting a qb hard that hasn’t quite started sliding yet’ type plays

The one thing I don’t get is why a team would abandon the run down against the cowboys early in a game lol especially if they’re gonna play dime all game. I think this ‘the cowboys are much better playing from ahead’ gets a little overblown we could’ve won in a shootout just running the football this game 😂

I can’t even say Matt Patricia at OC was a disaster when bill O’Brien is doing even worse 😂

Right but like I said before…that scenario where we miss requires picking the winner of like 15 individual games perfectly to keep us out at 11 wins…if any single individual game goes our way, the bills cannot miss at 11 wins. ‘They still might not make it’ is technically correct but incredibly misleading if you don’t add that the ‘might not’ is astronomically small odds just the Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore and cincy beating kc portion is very unlikely. Then you pile on top of that the ravens losing out, cincy winning out, Indy winning out, jax winning out, Cleveland winning 2 but they have to be a specific 2, I’m probably still even missing a few things but it’s still extremely extremely unlikely we are all but in at 11 wins right now. Saying things like ‘we need help still to make it in with 11 wins’ is pretty disingenuous. We would need more negative help than anyone has ever gotten to not make it 😂 if these teams you’re talking about winning out were all huge favorites every game it would still be a long shot but a little more reasonable to at least understand where you’re coming from.. But with backup qbs and such they are probably no better than 55ish percent chance of winning any individual game. The odds of just 5 games like that all going against you are about 5% let alone how many there would actually be. Were talking like 1/5000 chance or more but they’re just gonna round it down to 99.9% chance we make it.

I posted this earlier and second guessed myself but Miami has a small chance to have the 1 seed locked up before our game against them if they beat Dallas and Baltimore and Baltimore loses to SF and kc drops another game too lol I’d assume they’d be resting starters then so even if they somehow beat Baltimore and Dallas there’s still a small chance it helps us lol

Jags blowing 2 down the stretch is pretty unlikely but it would be a huge boost to our wildcard odds too…losing to the bucs would really make them sweat out those last two games. Jags losing two would get us from coin flip at best with 10 wins to very likely in with 10 wins

Playin around with the nyt playoff machine and it seems like their simulations really don’t think the dolphins are nearly as good as us lol We’re a pretty big division favorite in their models if the dolphins lose next week and we win. It flips from 60/40 dolphins winning the division now to 55/45 bills winning it with just those two results

Yea that was rough but if we had to choose that catastrophic dolphins collapse last week or these wildcard teams dropping back a game I’d take the dolphins loss…we cashed in all our luck on that one is how I’m lookin at it 😂. We got some pretty good help up until this week too