Generic_Bills_Fan

Yea I notice a lot when teams are already called guaranteed in and some of the configurators will say 99.9% still…I wonder if there’s some crazy 1 in a million chance that a bunch of people tie or something…or it’s just something about the way they run the simulations. Either way though it’s just a tiny piece of mind thing if that’s the first game that lets us control our own destiny so it’s not like you’re way off base…there’s still a bunch of different games that would have to go against us to cause that scenario so that Texans win probably would end up being meaningless for that anyway

Well yea if the browns can win the division and win a wildcard at the same time then that changes things 😂. I’m still tryin to work out what would really happen with the games you picked but the bills would be in I’m almost positive because you killed off the colts and bengals

There’s likely jags fans on their board saying no way we go 2-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs our team is so bad right now’ for every person saying that here to be fair 😂. If the bucs beat the jags our odds of getting in with 10 wins shoot up

Check it out in a configurator…colts win out, dolphins win two and lose to us, jags win out, bengals win out, browns beat jets and Texans and lose to bengals we are out at 11 wins Then flip the browns and Texans game and either way you go with Cleveland vs cincy we are in it sounds like you’re just lookin at overall playoff odds which isn’t the same thing as what I’m saying. I’m saying there’s one unlikely but horrible scenario where we win 11 games and completely miss the playoffs which is what this entire thread is about lol any non-bengals browns loss prevents it from happening. Yes we’d obviously much prefer the browns win but at least there’s that built in safety net if they don’t it could be meaningless by the time that game starts though there’s a handful of other games that could prevent that scenario too…like the Steelers beating the bengals

Overall yea it decreases because those odds don’t assume we win 11 games that’s why I called it a silver lining 😂. Overall odds go down but the disaster scenario where we miss the playoffs with 11 wins is off the table because the bengals and browns both cannot possibly win 11 games. For the browns to win 11 after losing to the Texans they’d have to beat the bengals which gets the bengals stuck at 10 wins max

It’s a lot less than 1% haha even .1% is rounded up for this because they don’t go to a hundredths decimal place for the odds. The odds of 10 50/50 type games all going against you are .09% and I think this is even more than that

All good points but I’m gonna nitpick the sf made the cowboys look worse than we did point 😂. I think we woulda rushed for 400 yards in that game if we didn’t shut it down for the whole 4th quarter. I’d say it was pretty much equal as far as our offenses vs the cowboys defense goes. He also said the chiefs would go undefeated and they lost their first game haha

There’s a built in silver lining there if the Texans win…we can’t miss with 11 wins if the browns lose that game because part of the scenario that keeps us out is the bengals and browns hitting 11 wins which would then be impossible

I just can’t see cincy beating the chiefs AND browns though and I don’t think it’s likely Miami beats the ravens either…cowboys maybe though. I think Tampa is gonna beat jax this weekend too.. can’t really figure out how Atlanta is a favorite over Indy I don’t think Indy’s losing that game Houston vs Cleveland this week is interesting too likely two backup qbs starting so who knows lol just this week we have 5 games with reasonable odds where any 1 going our way lets us control our own destiny. No one we’d be rooting for is bigger than a 3 point underdog and two are favorites

Dallas can probably play dime against Miami and stop the run…their corners can probably hold up in single coverage against tyreek or waddle too if they want to single cover one of them. Miamis offensive line is worse than ours at full strength and wayyyy worse than ours with all those injuries. They also really dont have to worry about spying tua it’s almost better we ran all over Dallas last week because I doubt they’ll be caught off guard if Miami attempts the same

I think the ravens have to win exactly 11 for whatever reason to keep us out lol I’m trying to find where I read that. It’s like 12 games all perfectly going against us which is why the odds are so low that we miss with 11. Even if each individual game is 60/40 odds to go against us the odds of them all going that way are astronomically small ah that ravens thing may be wrong…maybe I was thinking of the browns having to go an exact 2-1 but you mentioned that just these three goin against us seems very unlikely before even getting into any of the rest lol Miami over dallas miami over baltimore cincy over kc we’ll call Miami 50/50 vs Dallas and Baltimore and cincy a 30/70 underdog to kc. Odds of just those three all going against us would be 7.5%. Then you gotta factor in jags,colts,bengals all winning out and the browns going 2-1 but 1 of those wins can’t be against cincy.

Its a higher than 99.9% that we get in at 11 wins…every individual teams results might seem probable when you look at them but any individual game going in our favor prevents that whole scenario also I think some additional stuff has to happen too than what you listed

Idk if it’s just unlucky when I watch them and my perception is skewed but it feels like the lions have a way better oline than the team that ends up hiring Ben Johnson will and when I’ve seen them play that Detroit oline didnt dominate and they get demolished I feel like most OCs in the league would look like a genius with an oline near the top in the nfl

This was the biggest joke in history haha guy went from supposedly pro bowl talent to unemployed without retiring 😂 If there was an anti pro bowl with the worst players saffold definitely belonged in that

I think if we had the same amount of injuries but they were spread out a little more between the offense and defense we would’ve been much better off. those jags and pats losses our defense was straight up depleted A lot more good teams than usual were winning ugly offense/good defense type games this year. Dlines are really getting after it either way I think we’re gonna finish right on what I expected at 11 wins…the path there was quite strange though lol better team but harder schedule and a lot more ridiculous plays made by the other team in close games…last year it was mostly contained to the Vikings game 😂. We are that ridiculous fg in the eagles game away from sitting at 9-5 right now with a 3 game win streak over 3 playoff teams

I don’t even think it’s a hex it’s just a really tough matchup for them especially with our oline playing better. tuas getting the ball out so fast because he does all his diagnosing early on presnap…the disguised zones are very tough for him to deal with. The only game their offense gave us a lot of trouble was when we couldn’t stop the run. A small fast defense that can disguise coverages is kind of their kryptonite on the offensive side we’ve got a qb that’s great at improvising under pressure and runs like a fullback…they’ve got a bunch of pass rush specialist linebackers and nobody that can really help out in pass coverage

I still don’t get this ‘almost lost to the bucs’ lol if it was like the bears Hail Mary from this past weekend then yea sure no receiver had any idea where the ball was in the bucs game giants game 100% agree though

Browns are a pretty big win probability boost if they win… it’s a 12% swing of us getting in with 10 wins if the browns win jaguars losing would be huge too that’s a 17% swing. If the browns and bucs win we’re up to about 70% to make it in with 10 wins

Yep I am those people lol I thankfully share a peacock login with non football fans anyway

If we don’t win the division I hope Miami potentially beating us makes us the 7 seed and them the two and we get them in the first round 😂 if the 1 seed isn’t in play I’d honestly think about trying to lose my way out of the 2 seed if the bills could be the 7 honestly

And the total wins of teams they’ve beaten is the worst in the afc by a mile

Ours seem ok if you don’t go into the gameday threads 😂

Cleveland got obliterated by the rams and just snuck by the bears in their last 3 cincy was fortunate to beat a bad Vikings team that wasted dozens of opportunities to win the game colts just snuck by the titans then got humiliated by the bengals but had a good game against the Mitch trubisky Steelers who are horrible of the 3 cincy looks the most like the part but they’ve got a game against kc left and are even with us in record. I’m not sure how I feel about them vs pit if Pickett plays either

I agree on paper but Miami has beat them twice in a row (the last one felt like dumb luck)

Kelce had the most preposterous flop of all time yesterday lol so it seems like they all do it