I tracked this down for you…here’s what all would need to happen for the bills to win 11 and not get in:
Baltimore only winning 1 game and the one win is not against miami
miami beats Baltimore and dallas
Jacksonville wins 3 or 4 games
Cleveland beats Texans and jets and loses to bengals
Cincinnati wins out
Indy wins out
All that needs to happen for the bills to miss…it’s nearly impossible. Probably 1 in 1000 chance or less
just focus on even a tiny subset of that…what are the odds Miami beats baltimore and Dallas and the bengals beat the chiefs and browns?