Generic_Bills_Fan

That bengals loss was huge…we’re probably around 80% to make it with 10 wins if the browns beat the Texans tomorrow

Looked like he had to throw it around a lineman to me

That’s a straight up rolled ankle lol no shot it’s an Achilles

can and did make that stuff up 😂

That’s kind of funny I’ve always felt the opposite haha to me it seems like when he’s gotta go out and just manage a game he gets bored but when he’s gotta pull magic out of his a** he seems to play really well

He’s been throwin off his back foot a lot it seems

Maybe I get more worried than most but I only felt good about the Denver game out of that list and I feel good about tonight if that’s worth anything 😂

They’re gonna have less scheme issues against the dolphins imo…dolphins oline is a mess and they don’t have to account for tua running really

I don’t think this current iteration of the team could lose to anyone honestly…that jags/NE/Denver stretch before Rasul Douglas got up to speed our defensive depth chart was atrocious. We were last in the league in defensive dvoa for that 4 or so week stretch. To me thats what knocked us from fighting for the 1 seed to fighting to make the playoffs. The jets loss was unfortunate but a road division game week 1 you just never know what’s gonna happen…the jets were far less of a joke back then before their OL started dropping like flies too now that we’ve got no knee brace von and Daquan jones comin back I think we’re the best team in the afc playoffs if we make it

Guarantee you they are more nervous than you deep down haha

Obviously a dumb comment for the bills can’t pass implication haha but I don’t think they even realize how big an if that is too with regards to running the football. i really think Dallas can come out in the dime and rein in the Miami running game pretty easily with all the offensive linemen Miami is missing

I’d argue the bills and ravens games they won last year were not really playoff caliber teams at the time. Both had an absurd amount of injuries. We were missing like 13 starters by halftime that game lol it was absurd. That was like a preseason lineup and we still outgained them by 300 yards

Yea I notice a lot when teams are already called guaranteed in and some of the configurators will say 99.9% still…I wonder if there’s some crazy 1 in a million chance that a bunch of people tie or something…or it’s just something about the way they run the simulations. Either way though it’s just a tiny piece of mind thing if that’s the first game that lets us control our own destiny so it’s not like you’re way off base…there’s still a bunch of different games that would have to go against us to cause that scenario so that Texans win probably would end up being meaningless for that anyway

Well yea if the browns can win the division and win a wildcard at the same time then that changes things 😂. I’m still tryin to work out what would really happen with the games you picked but the bills would be in I’m almost positive because you killed off the colts and bengals

There’s likely jags fans on their board saying no way we go 2-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs our team is so bad right now’ for every person saying that here to be fair 😂. If the bucs beat the jags our odds of getting in with 10 wins shoot up

Check it out in a configurator…colts win out, dolphins win two and lose to us, jags win out, bengals win out, browns beat jets and Texans and lose to bengals we are out at 11 wins Then flip the browns and Texans game and either way you go with Cleveland vs cincy we are in it sounds like you’re just lookin at overall playoff odds which isn’t the same thing as what I’m saying. I’m saying there’s one unlikely but horrible scenario where we win 11 games and completely miss the playoffs which is what this entire thread is about lol any non-bengals browns loss prevents it from happening. Yes we’d obviously much prefer the browns win but at least there’s that built in safety net if they don’t it could be meaningless by the time that game starts though there’s a handful of other games that could prevent that scenario too…like the Steelers beating the bengals

Overall yea it decreases because those odds don’t assume we win 11 games that’s why I called it a silver lining 😂. Overall odds go down but the disaster scenario where we miss the playoffs with 11 wins is off the table because the bengals and browns both cannot possibly win 11 games. For the browns to win 11 after losing to the Texans they’d have to beat the bengals which gets the bengals stuck at 10 wins max

It’s a lot less than 1% haha even .1% is rounded up for this because they don’t go to a hundredths decimal place for the odds. The odds of 10 50/50 type games all going against you are .09% and I think this is even more than that

All good points but I’m gonna nitpick the sf made the cowboys look worse than we did point 😂. I think we woulda rushed for 400 yards in that game if we didn’t shut it down for the whole 4th quarter. I’d say it was pretty much equal as far as our offenses vs the cowboys defense goes. He also said the chiefs would go undefeated and they lost their first game haha

There’s a built in silver lining there if the Texans win…we can’t miss with 11 wins if the browns lose that game because part of the scenario that keeps us out is the bengals and browns hitting 11 wins which would then be impossible

I just can’t see cincy beating the chiefs AND browns though and I don’t think it’s likely Miami beats the ravens either…cowboys maybe though. I think Tampa is gonna beat jax this weekend too.. can’t really figure out how Atlanta is a favorite over Indy I don’t think Indy’s losing that game Houston vs Cleveland this week is interesting too likely two backup qbs starting so who knows lol just this week we have 5 games with reasonable odds where any 1 going our way lets us control our own destiny. No one we’d be rooting for is bigger than a 3 point underdog and two are favorites

Dallas can probably play dime against Miami and stop the run…their corners can probably hold up in single coverage against tyreek or waddle too if they want to single cover one of them. Miamis offensive line is worse than ours at full strength and wayyyy worse than ours with all those injuries. They also really dont have to worry about spying tua it’s almost better we ran all over Dallas last week because I doubt they’ll be caught off guard if Miami attempts the same

I think the ravens have to win exactly 11 for whatever reason to keep us out lol I’m trying to find where I read that. It’s like 12 games all perfectly going against us which is why the odds are so low that we miss with 11. Even if each individual game is 60/40 odds to go against us the odds of them all going that way are astronomically small ah that ravens thing may be wrong…maybe I was thinking of the browns having to go an exact 2-1 but you mentioned that just these three goin against us seems very unlikely before even getting into any of the rest lol Miami over dallas miami over baltimore cincy over kc we’ll call Miami 50/50 vs Dallas and Baltimore and cincy a 30/70 underdog to kc. Odds of just those three all going against us would be 7.5%. Then you gotta factor in jags,colts,bengals all winning out and the browns going 2-1 but 1 of those wins can’t be against cincy.

Its a higher than 99.9% that we get in at 11 wins…every individual teams results might seem probable when you look at them but any individual game going in our favor prevents that whole scenario also I think some additional stuff has to happen too than what you listed

Idk if it’s just unlucky when I watch them and my perception is skewed but it feels like the lions have a way better oline than the team that ends up hiring Ben Johnson will and when I’ve seen them play that Detroit oline didnt dominate and they get demolished I feel like most OCs in the league would look like a genius with an oline near the top in the nfl