Einstein's Dog

There are supposed to be some financial benefits to Philly to waiting until after June 1. It's been my hope the Bills are going to offer a trade after that date (because I think the Bills would lose a bidding war). My call was Addison for Ertz (because I think the Bills get financial benefit for waiting after June 1 for Addison). C'mon Beane, bring him home!

Actually, even if you got yeomen production out of Epenesa, it would still be a good pick. A yeoman DL of the likes of Murphy or Jefferson type is about a $10mill hit. So Epenesa, at what $2mill, is a bargain. This is where the money for Josh comes from.

Tua did not win 10 games. And Tua has not run anywhere near as well as Tyrod did for the Bills. Now without Fitz, Miami has a worse QB situation than they had last year. The most important position on the team has been downgraded.

I think as the OP mentions, most improvement is in small increments and is longer term in nature. I think the OP left out the problem area of TE. For a good team the TE room was weak. Only small changes have been made there - Hollister is better than L Smith and Knox should progress some. I think adding Ertz would be the single biggest year over year improvement the Bills could make. I'm still hoping for that to happen.

Except it's entirely reasonable to think Tebow is the type of locker room presence the new FO is looking for. And Tebow's work ethic and attitude is what they want to instill in the development of their young team.

We do have clues that Beane has interest. First, there have been many rumors all along the way (see this 50 page thread). Secondly, there was the quote by McD about not having the same level TE as KC. The FO may have moved on, or maybe (hopefully) they just couldn't come to an agreement earlier. I've stated my hope of Addison for Ertz after June 1st. There are other possibilities, ie some type of draft pick, or taking the chance on picking Ertz up after he is cut. It's not over yet, but odds are nothing happens until after June 1st. And letting Ertz get cut hurts the Bills chances of getting him.

And that is why Beane cannot allow this to become a bidding war. Ertz hits the open market and it's trouble, regardless of what they say (see JJ Watt). Needs to get creative and figure this out with a trade/redistribution of assets.

I hope the Bills have kept negotiating. Don't want to see Ertz hit the open market. I now like the idea of trading a DLineman, probably Addison, for Ertz. Move money out of the DLine and into the Offense, particularly TE. I'd like a 2 yr deal on Ertz for reasonable money. The dream is still alive!

My fearless forecast is that the next interview with Josh there will be a blurb that Josh has been vaccinated. It's what a leader would do. If he wants to get the best environment for his team to practice in, they need to meet this goal. He sets an example. It would show Josh is doing this for the team and others should follow suit.

But what you said was "these comments may be more headache than they were worth in the long run". IMO, if this is all he gets, a call from the office, it looks well worth it. Beane made it very clear what the front office wants. Doesn't have to (and won't) say it again. We now need to wait to see if the Bills hit the vaccination rate needed for the relaxed restrictions (as I now suspect they will).

Or the comments may provide a large benefit. This message was crystal clear, management is pro vaccination. Even starters who want to get in line with the Bills culture, know what to do now. The previous message coming from Josh was wishy-washy. So, while Beane may risk some type of grievance penalty, he may have snuffed out any limitations on practices by ensuring vaccination percentage compliance. We'll never know for sure.

I think I saw it in the Ertz thread, and upgraded it to a rumor in this thread (because I love the idea). Both Ertz and Addison get reductions after June 1. This brilliant move would decrease the overspend on the DL and create the first real short term year over year positional improvement for the team (outside of anticipated growth and development, and maybe Breida). As for the DL rotation it could survive without Addison.

Addison is rumored to be traded for Ertz after June 1.

I was in total agreement with you until you got to the last paragraph. What would you have liked them to do? I can understand it a little, I would like to see Ertz come here. But for the draft the Bills took the bpa in the area of expensive need. It's how you stay good for a lengthy period of time.

That's the point though. It's happened a lot before for the Browns. And it has continued to happen under Stefanski. Seems to me like it is a good bet to continue. IMO, the Browns are much more likely to cough one up against Cincy than the Bills are to lose to the Jets.

Don't forget a WR will definitely be an option. It should be between DL, CB, and a WR for the most part, maybe OL. Hopefully they will continue the bpa at an expensive position strategy. The bpa at expensive position strategy makes taking an RB quite unlikely. Breida only cost 1mill, M Ingram was $3m. If you take a WR and he only becomes a WR2 you still save the difference between Sanders $6mill vs the rookie contract, which is more than the rookie contract vs a FA RB1 in most cases.

But just last year the Browns lost to the Jets (?!!!) The second last game of the regular season with a lot on the line. 10-4 Browns with playoff hopes playing a totally in the bag Jets team. Huge loss. A very Brownsy loss done while under Stefanski. Sure they had a couple of nice wins against Pitt, but they lost to the pathetic Jets. Pretty much a text book example of inconsistent.

That's my point though, the Browns aren't even heavy favorites to win their own division. Talented roster that has been previously prone to inconsistent effort, that is playing a somewhat difficult schedule. I think Vegas will put them in at about 11.5 wins, which would be less than the Bills.

No way. I don't think the Browns are even favorites to win their division. And if they don't win their division they'll be on the road most of the playoffs. Hard to call that the big threat. The Browns schedule is no picnic either - 2xBalt, 2xPitt, KC, Pack, and even the MN, AZ, and NE pieces probably shouldn't be taken lightly. They'll probably be underdogs in at least 6 of their games. IMO, you seem to be overly focused on team talent and are discounting other important variables.

They don't need starters for this to be a successful draft. From an economic standpoint good rotational Dlineman have been running the Bills around $8 mill apiece (T Murphy/Jefferson/Addison/Butler). Getting rookie contracts in for those expenses makes a lot of sense. Compare that to Najee. Heard on the telecast that at his draft position he was getting something around $3m which put him at the 19th highest paid RB. That's not much of a value. You think Pitt would have known better, I think they are trending downward now.

Ignoring the shiny object of RB was the right way to go. I was glad to see the temptation removed by a couple of teams that couldn't resist. If the objective is to be good for an extended period of time the trenches was the way to go this year. Just look at how much it had cost the Bills in previous years just for backup DL's, the $8 million Jefferson, the $12m Murphy, the $10m Addison. Rotational, depth, d linemen are $8-10m apiece. A free agent RB is like $3m. Plus, the timing was off. Next year would be a much better year for considering an RB if improvement isn't made. Singletary is only 2 years in on a 4 year rookie deal.

Like lots of people have said, can't give 100% trust, everyone can make mistakes. I like what the FO has done for the most part. The trust level is fluid. If the FO trades up for an RB, I'll be disappointed and their overall trust level from me will take a huge hit. On the other hand, if they trade down 7 spots and pick up Ertz in the process - It'll raise their ranking immensely IMO.

I think what the rumor was, is that the Bills would give up their first for Ertz and Philly's second round pick. So, in reality the Bills would be getting Ertz for moving down 7 spots in the draft. It's what I'm hoping for. Secondly, Ertz does not have an albatross contract. Quite the contrary. It is a good contract for the Bills because a portion of it is paid by Philly. I think it comes out to $8mill. It's a deal in comparison to what the likes of J Smith and company went for.

GB -thanks for the thoughts. I hope it doesn't happen though, I just don't like the RB round 1. If it breaks like that I hope the Bills work the Z Ertz trade and move back 7 spots. Looks like a lot of good players at expensive positions of somewhat need will be there.

The window theory is a suckers game to be a flash in the pan. Being a consistently good team for a period of time is a better bet. A lot of luck/injuries go into each season. For instance Cleveland was real close to knocking off KC which would have resulted in the Bills being in the Superbowl.