Einstein's Dog

The Pats are only one piece of setting the market though. It's expensive. The rookie K Pitts is getting $8.5M, Hooper $10M, J Smith $12.5. Seems like the $8.5 contract for Ertz is a deal and could be used as foundation for a 2 yr deal. I hope Beane is being flexible on this. If you want Josh to take the next step - being able to take what the defense gives you - equip him with a smart, experienced, reliable, underneath target.

Looks like Clay got 5yrs for $38.5M. So I stand by my comment, got to pay Ertz over $8 - K Pitts is getting $8.5M and J Smith got over $12M.

For someone who disregards all evidence of the Bills interest in Ertz, it's ironic that you're so quick to buy into the theory that Ertz has a bad attitude. What sources do you have for that? Much like with JJ, this is not interest related, but price related. Sounds like you wouldn't be on board for Beane to go north of $13M for Ertz. Normally I'd ask what you would be willing to pay, but you don't seem rational on the subject. And don't kid yourself, getting an upper tier TE, Ertz, is the biggest upgrade the Bills could do for the Offense (over RB, over JJones, biggest).

Pretty far fetched to think the Bills haven't been checking Ertz out. Not only multiple reports/leaks but Beane said we didn't have the elite type TE that required game planning. Vegas odds put the Bills as the most likely landing spot. Beane does his own due diligence and determines if there is a fit, this wouldn't be an exception - see S Diggs.

Zero interest is pretty much out. But like JJ before him, the Bills FO probably has a set price range and draft capital and won't move much from it. And don't be fooled whatever amount the Bills are thinking, it is the most the Bills have ever paid for a TE.

Or the delay could be with Ertz/his agent and the Bills. They may have negotiated a 4th or 5th for Ertz already dependent upon Ertz signing a contract with the Bills. Determining a fair contract is a nightmare. And if the Bills are trying to get more than one year, the terms are even more complicated. Fair Market Value for Ertz is tough to figure, such a huge possible range.

I do like Knox/Hollister but Ertz is another level IMO. I do think Ertz/Knox/Hollister is excellent TE room. With injuries, just two TEs is risky- I'm real skeptical of whoever is #3 right now. TEs take a beating. 17 games plus playoffs this year.

I would hope you're in the minority. An Ertz/Knox/Hollister TE room looks really good to me. The single biggest potential improvement on O is at the TE (moreso than RB). And a former pro bowl caliber player is possible. I'm hoping we get to file this post right next to the old classic from last year "I may be in the minority, but I don't want Diggs"

A trade/pick is for more than cap/salary. You keep Ertz from hitting the open market. You get to negotiate a deal (which is probably the delay). The market price of Ertz is a huge factor. At one time, a selling point was you would get Ertz for the $8.5M, which seemed a bargain. The general public has shifted massively since then, and it seems you have bought in. What do you think a fair price for Ertz is? Hunter/J Smith both got over $12, Pitts is at $8.5, J Graham is at $8, Higbee $7+, Hooper is over $10M.

I'm hoping they structure the deal for more than one year. You want at least the option to keep Ertz for 2. Would be a slight risk, but seems worth it to me to get the opportunity to have some consistency with a good TE for Josh. I'm also hoping they don't give up to a 4th to save money. I'm hoping the Bills can do this for a 5th. Or figure a way to unload one of our overpriced DL (ie Butler).

A couple of comments: 1. Hope they figure out a way to keep Webb, I like the guy. 2. For Ertz I'm thinking they may try and move one of the DL that are not in Buff. For instance someone mentioned that Butler would be a $4M reduction if traded. Could be a way for the genius Beane to add Ertz and Nelson. 3. Adding Ertz not only brings in his skills. It would add the hidden benefit of defensive attention and adjustment that should benefit others. Ertz feasts on zones and that would be a real problem to the latest D used against the Bills.

You may be on to something, might be more than just coincidence. Any of those 4 DL would also be prime trade bait with Philly for Ertz.

True, in that I want Ertz. Doesn't mean the article isn't flawed. The idea that Ertz would take away snaps from Beas or Diggs is ridiculous. Just because Ertz played there in Philly, doesn't mean he would do that in Buffalo. He's taking snaps away from Knox. Another mark they use against Ertz is his declining man to man percentages. Even if you believe them, what team employs a man to man scheme against Buffalo these days? It was suicide last year. It's a plus to Buffalo if Ertz was tearing apart zones. You trade for Ertz because you do not want Ertz hitting the open market. The Bills will lose out in a bidding war. In a trade you get the contract negotiation done before the deal is made.

Good insight? It's an anti-Ertz article, doing a contrarian take to get clicks (got mine). Started poorly pretty much from the start with "The Bills as a team presumably in 'We can win a Super bowl and should try to do that no matter the cost". What? Whose presumption is that? That's not how the Bills have operated at all. They cherry pick the poor years of Ertz, instead of using career averages. They then use the horrendous recent years and think/imply Ertz will be used in the same way at Buffalo. Philly had terrible luck/talent/injuries at WR and Ertz out of necessity had his role changed. This would not be an awkward fit for the Bills. I don't know, did this guy write the same thing about Diggs.

To me, the Julio talk is frustrating, it's too pie-in-the-sky for my taste. It doesn't fit with any kind of team planning dynamic. I'm mostly worried that when some posters have their irrational Julio fantasy crushed they will be angry and unleash a buzzkill to my pure euphoria of an Ertz signing.

Yes, but Addison's finances make it a bad move. While you save more, the Bills still lose out on significant cap space. Butler, on the other hand, has cap savings of around $4mill if traded. IMO, this could be the move to unlock enough for Ertz and Nelson. I would be ecstatic.

I agree with what you are saying and think it is an underrated aspect of what Ertz would bring. Needing to account for the TE position in a meaningful way. It would open up others more, without significantly changing the target counts.

No, it's the inaugural event. I'm hoping he can bond with Ertz.

$4M sounds like a great downpayment on Ertz. Butler and a 7th for Ertz makes more sense than what Barnwell came up with. Move money out of the overpriced DL and into the bargain bin TE group.

I continue to love the idea of adding Ertz! But no way do we get him for $3.5 million, that's fantasyland. I thought the reduced $8.5mill was a bargain. He's a former pro bowler who had one down year. IMO, he's closer to H Henry/J Smith ($12.5mill) than he is C Manhertz (who? $3.3 mill) and Dan Arnold ($3m). To meet the expense Bills would have to do some retooling. It might include moving the reduced but still expensive Addison after June 1st. This could be a set up article to make Philly management look good. It may be a nice sign though that someone is considering a new low in the price of Ertz - both financially and in terms of draft capital.

I think with Rousseau the Bills got both fiscal and star potential. An extremely tall, huge wing span, huge handed DLineman. The physical tools are all there. And he had production. I can see why the FO took him. Rousseau has the potential to be a top 10ish kind of DL. The type you would like to be able to offer some guaranteed cash for a reasonably priced extension before he hits the open market. Boogie and Epenesa seem more like good, solid, fiscal moves.

There are supposed to be some financial benefits to Philly to waiting until after June 1. It's been my hope the Bills are going to offer a trade after that date (because I think the Bills would lose a bidding war). My call was Addison for Ertz (because I think the Bills get financial benefit for waiting after June 1 for Addison). C'mon Beane, bring him home!

Actually, even if you got yeomen production out of Epenesa, it would still be a good pick. A yeoman DL of the likes of Murphy or Jefferson type is about a $10mill hit. So Epenesa, at what $2mill, is a bargain. This is where the money for Josh comes from.

Tua did not win 10 games. And Tua has not run anywhere near as well as Tyrod did for the Bills. Now without Fitz, Miami has a worse QB situation than they had last year. The most important position on the team has been downgraded.

I think as the OP mentions, most improvement is in small increments and is longer term in nature. I think the OP left out the problem area of TE. For a good team the TE room was weak. Only small changes have been made there - Hollister is better than L Smith and Knox should progress some. I think adding Ertz would be the single biggest year over year improvement the Bills could make. I'm still hoping for that to happen.