Einstein's Dog

At least he didn't try and pass along that Denver BS that they had Gregory rated as the best DE.

I don't think that model is clear. I think you are extrapolating a small sample size. And even there, I don't know if that is a solid conclusion. They traded for Diggs, one of the teams top names wasn't from the draft. Last year, if the reports are to be believed, they were in the running for JJ Watt. The Bills philosophy won't leave us disappointed if they are able to hit a C Jones or Gronk. The Bills FO has shown they have prices in mind, but that price may be a high one (see Diggs/Watt). And if we're in the same ballpark as lesser teams then other factors aside from price matter less and the Bills have a good chance IMO (like you were suggesting with your OP). I don't think the method is much different from other teams. They've bought a WR each year, tried for a DE (Watt), and tried for a TE (Ertz). I think they'll try for all of them again this year too (except this time the WR will be a high draft choice). The FO does have price limits and doesn't hit very often on big stars (at least so far). But the pass rushers haven't settled yet (possible C Jones/Von Miller/Clowney and a few others), and TE Gronk (doubtful)- maybe H Hurst.

I agree with you, we haven't seen anyone taking less in FA yet. And I don't think you get big differences. The advantage would be in getting someone to choose Buffalo from a set of similar market offers. FA isn't over yet, and if, for instance, C Jones has a bunch of offers in the same range we might get chosen. Where I do think we have seen the advantages of the winning ways and good culture is in signing our own. When they like where they are, and are given an early extension at market rates, it's easy to get them to take it. It's great not to have Josh drama. Most think Diggs will restructure to market rates. I'm hoping they quickly work out Knox's extension and contract - although that just jumped up. As for the money, I believe they can rearrange some things for at least one good signing. The name pass rushers aren't gone yet.

I would be very surprised to see Gronk go for $5M. $5M wouldn't get you Ian Thomas. Gronk played for around $8M last season which was around market value then. Now the market has sky rocketed and is North of $11M. I'd rather have Gronk then Njoku/J Smith/Ertz/Tonyan. I think the Bills have to go at least that high to even have a chance, there's TN, Cincy, and Tampa who could be in the mix.

with Engram going for $9M, Ertz for >$10M, and Njoku franchised at close to $11M, looks like $12-13M needed for Gronk. Might be too rich for Beane. I'd still like to see it though. We need another pass catcher - be it TE or WR. I would have preferred Gronk and a drafted stud WR. Looking like a long shot now though.

Pass Rusher - C Jones, Von Miller, J Clowney TE - Gronk, Engram, Hurst Guard - A Corbett, someone else recommended by Kromer That's it for my FA list - one from each category. Then draft stud WR and everything else needed. Might need a CB from FA too but I don't know the low level ones well enough.

I people are reading too much into the comments, C Jones remains a real possibility in my mind. First, the snap count thing. Yes, Jones may get slightly less percentage of snaps here. But most of the plays he would be out on are high percentage run plays. He shouldn't mind. Second, is opportunity. The Bills have been crushing lesser teams, have one of the highest point differentials. That is a great place to be for a DE that wants sacks. Third, players talk all the time about factors other than money, but money is generally the key driver. If Beane opens up the wallet, Jones will come.

Yes! Glad to hear. Keeps the plan I would like to see alive. McK back, get another good TE. And draft a WR early. That is a plan that covers short and long term success. Short term, McK and the new TE share slot responsiblities. Long term it allows a path for a drafted WR to quickly rise into a prominent role. J Williams type would fit nicely. Then Diggs gets restructured soon, Davis in 2 years, and good rookie 4-5 years. Great financial planning in the WR room. Unfortunately the TE portion just got tougher - Ertz is out, Gronk is a harder get w Brady back. Engram/Tonyan/Hurst are a tier down. I think Beane may have to go to a big offer to Gronk.

Yes, by designation, they are TEs. And for the Bills purposes it's not a bad idea to look for a backup TE that can play slot. Then they can have a veteran presence in the slot and a backup if Knox gets injured (which is something Beas or McKenzie don't offer). This would also allow for a nice path for a drafted stud WR to be worked into the lineup. If Gronk doesn't come here I think I would prefer Ertz over Engram. Ertz would be a temporary veteran and has better hands than Engram, which in this role seems quite important.

I don't think Gronk has indicated in any way that he is still pissed at the Bills for bypassing him. I don't see him carrying a grudge for that. I unfortunately think the Tenn tweets are more an indication that he is not coming as cheap as many of us had hoped. Tenn is a real threat to wanting/using him. I think Beane may have to pony up >10M at this point to get Gronk. I think that figure is giving Beane pause and Beane is considering other options. Engram's position would be TE. Several TEs have more of a pass catching role, but the Bills still need a good backup TE. Engram/Ertz/CJ Uzomah would be good fall back plans. Maybe Hayden Hurst if everything dries up. Gronk has been linked to the Bills in many tweets. People don't ask because Gronk/Bills negotiations aren't supposed to ba able to start until Monday.

With tweets of Tenn showing interest in Gronk, Gronk's price may be going over what Beane has in mind. Beane should be looking at all realistic good TE options. Gronk, Engram, and Ertz would all fit the bill for me.

I like a lot of it. Especially C Jones. My changes: Maybe A Corbett over Noteboom - let Kromer make the call. Better TE - Gronk, if not then Engram or Ertz. He says "Dissly"?..... please, that does nothing for me. To afford those you don't get C Kirk, you get the low priced loser of Beas/McKenzie. You also don't need 2 FA RBs, that's one too many. Draft - 1st round WR for Josh - a T Burks or J Williams stud. Brings financial progression to WR room - Diggs restructure soon, Davis in 2 yrs, Rookie for 4/5 yrs. Staying away from the shiny >$10M WR allows for the rookie to grow quickly. That's the mid-long term thinking we need.

seeing Mack go hurts some, that was one potential option no longer available. There are better options out there though, C Jones or Clowney will probably come at similar price with no draft capital expended. Just not a lot of those to go around, we'll see if Beane can get one. Also want a FA TE. Rookie TEs rarely are ready. Getting a Gronk would be a coup, if not, Engram or Ertz. Kind of slot like fill-ins for the departure of Beas. Then draft a WR in one of the first two rounds and groom and use. We can get a vet slot after the dust settles for cheap, kind of like the loser of McKenzie/Beas - the one who can't find a home. The vet slot would be the bridge (and insurance) as we groom and develop the drafted stud WR.

Good at TE? We've got Knox. Need another TE. TEs are almost never good as rookies, so this belongs in the FA bucket. For most (myself included) Gronk is at the top of the list. TEs are expensive, Clevelands TE2 Njoku just got franchised for $10.8M. According to Spotrac Gronk is now up to $9.5M and our other main man Ertz is listed at a reasonable $7.6M estimate. Otherwise, I'm with you. Spend the big money on a FA pass rusher. then TE2, and then find value at WR3 plus draft a WR early. Maybe wait on RB and take a discounted, mad, vet RB.

Actually Ertz is a FA. Spotrac puts him at a reasonable &7.6M. I'd rather have Gronk but now Spotrac raised Gronk's estimate up to $9.5M. With Geiski, Schultz, and Njoku (what is Cleveland doing?) all getting franchised for $10.8M the market for TEs is heated. I hope Gronk will still honor his home town discount.

Maybe Gronk? What? Any good dream scenario should be starting with Gronk. At a paltry $8M, he's a bargain. He was probably the person that came and saw Beane at the combine. Next add either C Jones or Von Miller. Just need one of the premier pass rushers. Expensive but needs to be done IMO. Then with Gronk on board the Bills can say No to all the high priced WRs. Decent WRs are getting $20M now - see M Allen. Draft one early - J Williams comes to mind. Get him up to speed during the year and then get close to that $20M production for a rookie contract for the next 3-4 years. Do an early season bridge with a McKenzie or Andy Isabella type.

Also, the idea that the Pegula's would be short-sighted doesn't cut it in my book. Forcing a short term interest boost at the possible expense of future winnings seems like a bad business decision. If the Bills remain good, the whole enterprise will be a money making machine. Losing risks everything. I think it's safe to think the Pegula's realize this and are keeping out of a well run football operation.

I agree with you that it is a long shot to Kirk. If the Bills weren't going to pay Beas $7M I don't see them paying C Kirk >$10M. And that's okay because to me it seems like it would be a bad decision. Getting a WR in the draft is clearly the way to go. Cheap developing WR for Josh is the medium/long term answer. In the short term I would rather they get Gronk for $8M, re-sign McKenzie for $3M and work in their draft pick.

I think Dorsey is a smart guy, great hire. He has a working relationship w Josh and that will continue. Dorsey's greatest influence is Daboll. But even Daboll would be different next year had he stayed, because of two key components that I didn't see addressed yet: 1. Personnel - if Beane can bring in Gronk, a lot of what we will see will change from last year. Not because of Dorsey's past at the U with Chudzinski, but because he has Knox and Gronk. If Beane instead finds a bargain with C Kirk or Berrios, then it is reasonable to expect a different offensive emphasis. Or god forbid, the dreaded Splash moves of Barclay or McCaffery - if here, expect the ball to get in their hands. 2. Josh's development- Josh isn't done developing (as scary as that may be for our opposition). Love to see Josh start calling some of his own plays. Sprinkle in some no huddles to catch the defense off guard. Make a concerted effort to run Josh less.

The idea that the FO hasn't made moves before is wrong. Diggs was huge. They tried for JJ and Ertz last year. But they have figures in mind. The hope is that they can get one of the bigger names at market value or below - to get a good deal on a position of need. Getting Gronk or C Jones could easily fit that profile. And those aren't adding players for just Splash.

Signing Gronk would be a great team bolstering move! TE2 is a need. And Gronk is more than TE2. If the FO can get Gronk in here for a home discount of $8M or less it is a great move for the team. While it has Splash to some of us, others as noted in threads actually don't like it. But the problem with the OP is that it treats any move as being done for Splash. The Bills have tried to add high end FAs before - see JJ Watt/ Z Ertz but they have a figure in mind and have been outbid. How can you assess the move without knowing the contract details? Bills fans would have a right to be excited if the FO could bring in a Gronk or a Chandler Jones. To proactively call out any such move as initiated by the Pegulas with the intent of Splash is trolling. And now if any move is done there is no need to wonder what these trolls think of it, their bias is clearly already establised. The Bills have enough followers that there seems to be a niche market developed for Anti-Bills clicks. Obscure people/sources can see increased activity now by creating blogs/articles/twitters that are negative about the Bills.

Spotrac has him at $12.3. I think he made $9+ this year. If he dropped that would be great though.

I think you're over pricing what they would put into the position. Crowder and Kirk are both expected to go over $12M, and will want multi-year deals on top of that. So, sure they would be nice to have put they don't fit a medium term solution. I think the more likely plan is to get a bridge and a draft pick. The bridge probably would have been McKenzie but I don't know now. One plan is to wait out the FA rush and see who got left behind. Then offer the low end market rate of around $6M. And of course there is always my hope of adding Gronk.

Do people, like Dunne, use the term squib kick and pooch kick interchangably? Because a squib kick, which had always been a kick along the ground, would certainly have been a risky call - and generally no better than what they ended up with. A pooch kick that goes high and comes down at around the 10 is what should have been the call. So, IMO, squib kick or out of end zone are no different - both bad calls. The right play was a pooch kick.

No I'm hoping Coles money is going to Gronk. McK and a draft pick are the cheaper, longer term solutions. Neither of them are in the $6M range.