Einstein's Dog

I think the plan was to fill holes in FA and then draft BPA. This year they seem to have modified it, and are letting CB2 and WR3 play out in the draft before putting the finishing touches. I don't like the idea of a rookie starting day1 next season -and no, not every 1st round CB started day 1 last year. Fuller would certainly be starting over Booth. And I think we have a decent amount of cash to put into the CB, they just redid Diggs.

My point was I'm hoping they draft like they will fill the CB spot in FA. Steve Nelson was the example someone else provided who thought we wouldn't start w Nelson and Jackson. So, with reduced urgency would you then rather have C Watson over Booth? Because when you say reduced urgency you are really just factoring out the short term need.

It's a terrible idea to count on having a rookie start day 1 on a superbowl contending team. Yes, I agree it's possible to have a rookie work his way into starting lineup. I also don't buy the idea that it has to be a cheap vet. I just think reasonably priced. There were rumors they were in the hunt for Peterson who ended up at $4-5M.

You're scaring me, you're suggesting something like having K Gordon start. Part of the success of this FO has been the belief that the draft is for the futute. They use their picks on BPA for premium positions of use, not for short term need. Yes, CB would qualify but not in a panic stricken way. I believe (hope) the FO has just temporarily delayed their FA fills holes prior to the draft approach due to the unique circumstances of this year. I'm expecting a decent CB (better than Wallace) to be acquired. There remain Nelson/Fuller/Callahan/King/Haden/Gilmore/Sherman/Jenkins. Much rather have any of them starting the season over Gordon (or Booth for that matter).

I think the plan remains to address CB2 with a vet. I think the plan was always a CB2 vet on a team friendly deal, not vet CB at all costs. They never planned to be a big player, big spender, at CB2 (that was reserved for pass rusher). So by being a secondary player in the market you should not have expected someone right off the bat. Unusual circumstances have the acquisition delayed a little longer than in the past. Steve Nelson is not coming in as depth. You aren't seriously thinking Booth would start over him are you? I would pencil him in as the starter. Same for Rhodes/Callahan/King/Haden/Fuller/Gilmore/maybe Sherman.

Why can't they draft with confidence that they have a vet CB if Beane tells them he will get them one? What you're suggesting is a classic example of drafting for need. Generally frowned upon. It is a unique situation where there seem to be a glut of FA CBs still out there. If Beane is confident that by waiting he will get a significantly better deal, then of course, they should do that. It is not foolish.

I agree C Watson will be there. He's probably going to be the 6th or 7th WR taken. What I don't agree with is your super bowl window stuff. The draft is supposed to be for the future. If the FO thinks a stud WR is the BPA you take him. A stud WR is extremely valuable and is a key piece in keeping the super bowl window open.

The question is whether or not you consider C Watson to be a reach. I've come around on Watson and would like it if he were drafted in the 1st. Extreme potential. Help stop the FA WR carousel. Gives Josh/Dorsey 4-5 years of a raw atheletic WR to train and develop. They don't have to draft a WR, but if one like C Watson is available there is a nice spot for him.

That's a good point. The Bills probably are still working the field because they want a particular one- not just a bargain. Would be interesting to know who they prefer at CB: Rhodes was a former first round draft pick with several years pro experience. Buoye at one time had a big salary and has Carolina stink. Just read about Kevin King being a 6'3" 200, coming back from injury but had an excellent 2019 (5 ints, 66 tackles). Then there is also Fuller/Nelson/Callahan. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/4/10/23018040/free-agent-cornerbacks-available-for-the-buffalo-bills-to-sign-kevin-king-stephon-gilmore

It may be what they planned but the process seems to have been adjusted/tweaked. They used to say they filled all the holes in FA and drafted BPA. Now it appears they are intentionally leaving some spots - like say WR3, Sanders spot, for a draft pick.

Thanks for the input. I view a few things a little differently. First, to me, priority number one for Beane was a pass rusher. Beane didn't just Forrest Gump his way into Von. It was one of the options Beane wanted and Beane went big to get it. The big money at QB,WR,LT,CB, and pass rusher is no accident, all part of the beautiful overall plan. Two, I always did not like Wallace and was routinely disappointed that he made it into the starting lineup. I was glad they moved on, but certainly have hoped he would be replaced by someone better. I agree Beane isn't panicking, but hope it is because he knows he'll bring one in, and that player will be better than Wallace.

I think the FO is also leaving the third outside WR spot open. The old Sanders spot is intentionally unfilled for stud draft potential. It's a need that looks like they won't address until after the draft. The hope by many of us is they get a WR early. If the board doesn't work they may have to use that extra money and go to the FA well.

I forgot to add the status of Tre as another factor in waiting. Also it allows them to keep the draft day trade options open (Bradberry?) I feel they're going to be adding 2 CBs, one by draft and one vet. I'm interested in your ranking/thoughts on the remaining FA CBs. Who do you think will get the most money and who do you think are the best fit for the Bills?

In the recent past the FO has used Free Agency to fill holes prior to the draft and then pick BPA. But this year could the FO be delaying their last move until after the draft (vet CB)? This year it might be advantageous to wait until after the draft to fill the vet CB spot. Several reasons for it. Unusual amount of quality CBs still on the market. Gilmore/Fuller/Haden/Callahan/Nelson/Rhodes. There may be a price break after the draft. The vet CBs will face a demand dropoff by the 5-10 teams that draft CBs in the first 2 rounds. The Bills draft could affect the type of vet CB they want - for instance, if the draft falls such that BPA in round 1 is a CB, ie Booth, then maybe FO will put in less money to fill the vet CB slot. Get a $1-2M CB - ie old Sherman, or the oft injured B Callahan, with the intent of quickly moving Booth into the spot. If the draft goes a different direction the FO pays more for a Nelson/Fuller/Rhodes type. They could still draft BPA (in premium position of need) and fill in the remaining CB spot at a price point that may differ according to the selections from the draft.

I kind of hope Booth is drafted ahead of us so it's not a possibility. If, for instance, the draft went like the one TBD did where Booth was gone (although you took him) I would have preferred the Bills taking C Watson over the corner.

And I hope your view is not the opinion of the FO. If Booth and J Williams or T Burks are all on board, I hope the Bills go WR. There's no world where I will be delighted with corner in round 1, but I will be able to understand it if the top tier of WRs are gone.

Why does it matter when we get the CB? They should be drafting BPA at a premium position of use regardless of the short term status of the CB. Seems like there might be a price drop after the draft when the FA CB field would be getting very nervous. So it may be advantageous to the Bills to wait. Also, by waiting until after the draft, Beane may adjust which CB tier he might want. For instance if the draft falls in such a way that we get Booth then maybe the FO would supplement him with the injury prone Callahan or Sherman (lower price options). And if the draft falls a different way where J Williams/T Burk is available and CB isn't addressed until round 3 the FA CB would change. In that case maybe they look to pony up for a more dependable Nelson/Rhodes type.

My point is you don't have to sign a vet CB and then draft BPA. You draft BPA with the confidence that you will be signing a vet CB at some point. It doesn't have to be before the draft, not if the price is not where Beane wants it. There is a strong case that there could be a significant price drop with regard to CB signings after the draft. If the current glut of CBs don't sign prior to the draft, the demand for their services takes a serious drop after 5-10 teams load up with first or second round CBs.

Literally the end of your post was "the CB has to be addressed ASAP". It does not. It can wait. There are a lot of CBs and the best deals may be after the draft.

No, the CB does not have to be addressed ASAP. It actually might be able to wait until after the draft. There are a glut of FA CB - Fuller/Haden/Rhodes/Nelson/Jenkins/Callahan/Gilmore/Sherman etc. Who FA do you recommend for the Sanders vacancy? Going FA route gives you Julio (possible but I suspect pricey), Landry (estimated $12M spotrac), Fuller (maybe but injury riddled coming off $10M), Beas (seriously, that's who you want?), Sanders (a year older doesn't help). See the problem? You draft BPA at a premium postion of use. If the pick is closely graded you do not take the CB, you take the WR and upgrade the FA CB accordingly.

I don't think Edmunds over Knox at all. Edmunds seems replaceable to me and they should be getting that person in the upcoming draft. That Troy Anderson would do nicely IMO. Knox didn't just have a good developmental year, he had a good year period. And he is ascending. Not only did his numbers shoot up but his blocking improved tremendously. To me, he is a core member of the offense. If Dawson would do the hypothetical 3yr/$25M, you do that now. Njoku is getting >$10M.

But the rumor was the Giants would eat half the salary in a trade. We would give up a lower draft pick and maybe a recent rookie who is on a cheap contract (Epenesa or Moss) - this would be big cost saving moves for the Giants.

So that other teams are honest. You make a realistic offer that you want. Allowing the parties to agree on adjustments after the fact just keeps other teams from doing bogus poison pill offers - that doesn't help the players or original owners.

This could be upping the ante for the CB. Setting their sights a little higher than the $3.5M market. Possibly Fuller. Maybe trading Epenesa and a 5th for Bradberry (and the Giants eat half the contract). Or maybe it does take $5M to get Nelson (or whichever one they like most- which I personally hope is not Gilmore).

Seems a little shiny objecty to me. The exciting unknown "first round corner" really bolsters the lineup as apposed to say the steady experience of Nelson/Rhodes/Callahan, not to even bring in the possibility of Fuller or Gilmore (who I personally don't like). For next season if you ranked the CBs you would like starting for the Bills, I would put the rookies behind these vets. Anyway the draft is really supposed to be about the future. It's now a potential cost control to balance out the big prices of the core (QB,WR,LT,CB,DE). A WR is more than just nice for the future. It gives Josh/Dorsey 4-5 years of continuity to pair up with Diggs. It gives Beane negotiating leverage for Davis and Knox, and insurance if demands get too rich. It also helps cost contain the WR group. I'd like to see a WR and RB and see if they can develop into integral parts of the future offense.