Einstein's Dog

If the 5th WR is ranked higher then you take him. I'm telling you I don't think that will be the case. Last year they could have had the WR C Watkins that was an RAS freak that went to GB or G Pickens who went to Pitt. Both better than what I believe they would see this year. And yet, they moved up and got the cb they feared would be picked ahead of them. Beane may be looking at what it takes to move up because of Dallas interest in mlb. For instance if B Robinson is gone (another Dallas rumored target) the threat of Dallas taking an mlb increases. If the FO has a clear top tier favorite (hopefully Campbell) they might want to jump Dallas. It's not so far-fetched since they just did something similar last year.

If Campbell is their man, and he is there, I think they would gladly take him. I think the risk is much more that as the pick gets closer the pressure to move up and get him intensifies. I could see nervousness of the Dallas pick - I've seem mocks with Dallas taking D Sanders. I think the scenario happened last year with cb/Elam.

It's weird to me that the rumor's get so specific. Why put "offensive player" in the supposed rumor? I could see leakage of real phone contacts between Beane and other decision makers on other teams. Others might catch wind of that. But how would that morph into the knowledge that it was for offensive players?

I didn't say it was a reach, I said it was riskier, and it is. Seems hard to argue that the odds of the fifth receiver beating out Gabe and/or Shakir are less than the odds of the top mlb beating out Bernard. Swinging for the fences is in FA or trades - that would be the DHop hope (much like Von last year). The draft is for the future. Jack Campbell would be 3 years of bargain prices and then extended early at market prices.

No, the logic is mlb is much safer. WR's are risky (see K Benjamin, Z Jones). Also the drafted mlb would have greater odds of starting, makes financial sense, and is easy to incorporate into the starting lineup. The Bills could have the top pick at mlb vs the 5th pick at the risky WR position. Of course the Bills could draft a WR, but they probably won't. The conservative, financially sound, safer move, is mlb.

2023 NFL Mock Draft: Seahawks move up to grab eventual Geno Smith replacement; three big mock trades in top 10 - CBSSports.com I guess I didn't get the link, but Tom Fornelli of CBS sports has Campbell going at #27 today. It's the finances that make it so logical. Getting a WR who is WR3 being paid more than Gabe who is starting above him might be a problem Getting an RB making more than our starting 2 ahead of him makes no sense. Getting a TE2 for $3M is a waste. Getting a starting mlb who is very good at $3M/yr for the next 4 years makes a lot of financial sense.

I think you are projecting what you want. They very well could be seeing what it might take to move up to get Campbell. If D Sanders goes off the board at around 21, the FO could get very nervous. This just happened last year with Elam. While a lot of posters would love to see a move to get Q Johnston (myself included) which, by the way, is very different than the cringe worthy prospect of moving up for Bijan Robinson (which would make me violently ill), I don't think the FO would take such a risk. The FO has an excellent opportunity to get a good 4-5 year starting mlb for around $3M/yr. Do it.

Draft strategy changes after having a franchise QB and becoming a contender. The Bills now need early draft picks who will contribute for the next 4-5 years at positions of decent value. Groot, Elam, and now a mlb fit this strategy and are smart moves. It is kind of a safe move in a way to draft the mlb. Seems like they would get their choice of a top tier mlb and would comfortably be able to get him starting by mid-year and use them for at least the next 4.

I agree with most of what you are saying, similar approach to years past. But just last year the FO made the Von move. I was hoping for a veteran WR move but seems like a long shot. As for year over year improvement it may come down to improving existing players, but also can be done with improved coaching. McD can use the players in a more aggressive and less predictable style. Dorsey could get the short swing game to another level (with the improvement of Cook/Shakir/Allen). And Kromer needs to get his act together and get this OL cohesive (I had big expectations that went unfilled last year).

I hope they don't move up - just too costly. My worry is that they may have a limited top tier, like Sanders/Campbell and someone takes one of them ahead of us. This would make Beane very nervous. Something similar happened last year with cb.

I also agree that the mlb can be considered important. I think that guy is Campbell. Sanders looks a little undersized. What is interesting to me is that many think it is okay to draft Sanders but not Campbell in round 1. I think it would be excellent if the FO gets the first choice of mlb's and gets to choose the one they want- looks between Sanders/Campbell/Simpson. To me, it looks obvious that the FO left the $18M vacated slot to be filled by the draft. Yes, this is now a need but it was done by design. By most accounts they will have at least a top 2 choice to choose from to fill the spot.

The CBS/NFL article by Chris Trapasso has Jack Campbell going #27 to the Bills. His write up is "It came down to Campbell or Zay Flowers here for the Bills but Buffalo likes the depth at receiver more than linebacker on Day2" You, along with the GMs, and draftniks, have no idea if a guy is selected 15-20 picks too early. You call it a reach because you didn't think he should be selected there, and thought (with no assurance whatsoever) that he could have been picked 15 spots later. This "monster hole" was by design by the FO when they let the $18M man leave. Looks like they can get their choice of one of the top 2 mlb's and someone (IMO) slightly better, at a fifth of the cost, for 4-5 years.

The reason the FO went with Dorsey was for continuity and consistency. By all accounts this had Allen's approval. By most stats they maintained the offensive output. You can put any OC under a microscope and find ways they can improve - it was certainly that way with Daboll. As for use of personnel, that is tricky. Singletary had timing issues, Cook had a bad case of rookie nerves, Shakir was out of position, McKenzie had terrible drops, and Allen had problems with speed and arc on the short passes. These all contributed to bad chemistry on the short swing passes they seemed to want to incorporate last year. How long do you keep doing something that is struggling.

Your idea of value is based on an estimate of where you think people will be drafted. You think Campbell or Sanders would be a reach in the first because some people feel they wouldn't be drafted until later. They don't know. What we do know is that our last mlb got $18M. If we can replace his production with a draft pick, that seems like excellent value. You seem to feel that Henley or Sewell are at the same level, as Sanders/Campbell. If the FO feels the same, maybe they will wait. I doubt it though. Seems like the FO may have a shot at one of the top 2 and I think they'll take it. As for the OP, taking a top 2 mlb is much more likely to provide a value to our team of over $10M, than any of the WRs available or TEs.

What if Beane/McD like Campbell better? And the quote "the value isn't there for a MLB" gets thrown around a lot. Edmunds just went for $18M/yr. If the FO gets a starter of that quality, it seems like huge value - that's DHop money (and more than any WR2 commanded). Can you see how flawed your "trade up from 59.....if MLB starts moving" quote is? It could very well be too late at that point to get the one they want! lb>WR2>TE2. While a good WR is an enormous asset, getting the 4th or 5th WR entails a lot of risk (see Z Jones, K Benjamin). The smart play is to buy a good WR (DHop) and draft a top 2 lb (Campbell).

"Incompetence" is rather harsh wording. The OL needs to get better, and Saffold was a miss. I was disappointed with Kromer, thought his addition would really show and I didn't see it. As for the DL, when healthy the DL is one of the best the Bills have ever had.

I don't think Beane has tried to build the OL with jags. There has been 1st rounder Dawkins, highest paid Center Morse, 3rd rounder S Brown who had elite level RAS. They also tried 2nd rounder C Ford, and last year spent $6M on Saffold and matched Bates' offer. It may not have worked as planned but I don't think there has been this big intentional area of neglect that people seem to make it out to be.

I hear ya. I think because of a vocal minority, the actual prevailing opinions get overshadowed. Along those lines, mine are: 1. Beane is one of the top GMs in the league. 2. McD is one of the top coaches in the league 3. The best way to win a SuperBowl is to be one of the superbowl favorites, and do it for multiple years.

If it's any consolation I appreciate your efforts in qualifying what is your opinion. It makes it easier (at least for me) to converse about opinions I differ with. I'd be excited with either mlb. Seems to fit the best player available at a premier position of need. Our last mlb just got $18M and good replacements would have cost in excess of $7M. Contrast that with the Singletary getting $3.5M and our replacing him with the $1.8M Harris. I think the trading down scenario's are a difficult and dangerous game. If both mlb's are still there along with B Robinson, I could see the FO trying something. Otherwise just take your preference and be done with it.

The Bills need to keep pursuing this prior to release. IMO, if the Cards released DHop it would show an error from Beane. IMO DHop is worth his salary and a low round pick. If DHop is released it would be a free for all and auction that would be tough to win. The price drops for how much of DHop's contract the acquiring team needs to pick up. Since it is starting to look like the Cards do not want to pay, it is mostly a salary dump, then the deal can be a slightly increased version of the B Cooks deal. But with the flexibility of negotiating before the trade, you can arrange it so DHop doesn't take a salary reduction but the cap hit could be better for us. You can extend it out and give upfront signing bonuses and guarantees.

Actually, Dan K is quoting SI reporter Albert Breer, who is saying some teams think DHop will be released. Ridiculous thought by some teams that may just be leaking this to reduce the price. The supposed logic behind teams thinking DHop will be released is: “There’s nobody who was willing to take on Hopkins’ contract and pay the Cardinals initial asking price.” Seems like a lot of negotiating room is being missed there- between initial asking price and release.

But last year, when healthy, the DL line was a strength. At the beginning of the season, the front 4 was a force and a big reason we were Superbowl favorites. If we could run back that unit, I'd take it all day. Unfortunately, Shaq is one who with age isn't likely to get much better. The DL has been a heavily invested unit for the Bills, don't expect a large investment monetarily at this time. For the semi-long term, the FO may consider bringing in a draft pick for youth in the unit. If they get a quality prospect, Shaq may not be needed.

1. Jack Campbell 2. Roschon Johnson Could be an excellent draft in the works.

My point was, any coach with intense hindsight scrutiny has areas to improve. Especially when not judged relative to the competition. And Dorsey's weapons were worse than Daboll's - Dorsey never had a replacement for Sanders. This is where DHop would come in, an improvement even. Most here hope the offense will click better next year. That Dorsey/Allen/Cook/Shakir can improve the short game. But also adding another outside WR seems like it could open a lot of opportunity. DHop is the number one choice but it is a long shot.

Any coach subject to such hindsight scrutiny is going to have flaws, and this includes Daboll. Having Allen carry the offense was in part by design from Dorsey. Cook/Shakir were nervous rookies that simply were not ready, Crowder got injured and McKenzie was exposed. How about in defense of Dorsey, the offense was top 3 and part of a team that went 14-4. And Dorsey had less to work with than Daboll because they promoted Gabe and did not backfill the Sanders spot.