Einstein's Dog

I thought at one point DHop said he didn't want a raise. I took it to mean that he would accept a trade if the team picked up the remaining $34M in his contract the next two years. I doubt AZ wants to pick up much more on DHop's contract since it looks like the primary motivation to move him is a salary dump as they slightly rebuild. $34M for two years of DHop is a good deal. Look at Spotrac AAV's for WRs - C Kirk $18M, M Williams $20M, DJ Moore $20M, T McLaurin $23M, C Godwin $20M, T Lockett $17M, D Johnson $18M, H Renfrow $16M, and OBJ just hobbled into $15M. And if you restructure into additional years and add some guarantees, a signing bonus, you can play around with the cap hit a bit.

I think for the Bills they might be waiting for the draft. If Addison moves within a predetermined amount, maybe a 3rd or a 4th (+our 27) they go for him. If Addison is gone by then Beane activates his DHop plan, which might be using that 3rd or 4th, plus probably an independent move to do something with Oliver (because of the cap money needed).

You should be excited! Very good chance something is going to happen in regards to WR/TE! I don't want D Wright. Give me J Addison, Q Johnston, or trade for DHop - that's exciting. All possibilities. Even the TEs offer intrigue - D Kincaid big playmaker, D Washington a man mountain that would challenge Dorsey to create some different looks. The odds for the Bills going for a WR/TE early are as high as they have been since the Diggs trade.

You forgot J Addison and Q Johnston. I think those two are extremely likely targets and I would be excited if it happened. I would go so far as to hope if those two are not available the FO would trade down, and that stands even if B Robinson and/or D Kincaid are still on board.

My reasons against taking an RB in the 1st: 1. Finances - the Bills are going with an inexpensive RB room. Taking an RB at 27 is a $2,5M addition, more than Cooks or Harris make now. 2. Offensive philosophy - the Bills have what may arguably be the best 25-30 yard passer in football. I want the offense to be built around that. 3. 5th year option - generally you don't want to be the team that is doing the second contract for an aging RB. Those contracts are expensive and the RB will generally start fading earlier than other positions. Also lately 1st round RBs won't serve their fifth year without a new contract - Zeke/Bell. 4. Opportunity cost - kind of goes with 2 and 3 but taking an RB has you miss out on someone else. For instance I have started coming around to the man mountain D Washington, prefer him over any RB.

I'm with you Alpha - not only that, but the whole fixation on just draft picks misses the point at times. For instance, if the FO gets DHop, this criticism doesn't end. And imagine if to get DHop they move Oliver, and then draft defense first round. True, it's a first round pick for defense but pretty disingenuous to think the FO wasn't focused on increasing the offense this offseason.

I agree, the 14-4 results are hard to argue. That's a good season. But the FO did seem to make a change with Frazier even though he had good results and good D rankings. I don't know if it is reasonable to make such a change just based off of the small sample size of disappointment from playoff losses, so I am hoping it is more than that. I like the change and am hoping it is a sign that they are moving away from what looked to me to be a passive, predictable defense. Also strategically, I never agreed with the bend but don't break strategy we seemed to start with. Going against lesser QBs and giving them the 5-7 yarders didn't make sense to me. The Mac Jones/Tua/Wilson's of the world, live for those - it's the 25 yarders they would be hesitant to take and hard for them to make. But I really couldn't argue with the results, the lesser QBs rarely beat us. Would still like us to change it up.

Can't do it. They know a lot of people like me are addicted. For instance, Maurice Jones-Drew (who is terrible at this) has put out his again at nfl.com mock 1. And yes, I read through it. He has Bijan going 10, J Gibbs - who he likes better going at 26 to Dallas (MJD has consistently overvalued RBs). Of note, has D Wright going 17, J Addison 22, Bills taking C Kancey, and right after Cincy goes with D Kincaid. No mlbs and no Q Johnston in the first round.

There is a path to being able to afford DHop. That was get Poyer at a discount, let Edmunds walk, and trade Oliver. It is still a possibility. DHop is in the discussion because he would improve the team immediately. There is more than one way to improve a team, and this route is still possible. It would also make the Bills an incredibly exciting team to watch.

I guess you need to price out DHop. As others mentioned OBJ just got $15M and he should be less than DHop (more question marks). According to Spotrac average salaries, with DJ Moore at $20M, Terry McLaurin at $22M, Godwin/M Williams/A Cooper all at $20M. DHop's contract does not look out of line to me, and I believe DHop said he wasn't looking for a raise.

A couple things. There's no guarantee AZ would release DHop, that's media speculation. Secondly if it got to that there would be a bidding war, not a good thing for the Bills. IMO, the move needs to be made at/by the draft or the odds drop significantly of the Bills landing him. DHop has indicated he is willing to go to the Bills. So the Bills should be able to know what kind of cap room/salary will be needed to pull it off. That discussion should have already taken place. Then the deal depends on what it will take from AZ to let him go. Maybe something like the Bills have offered a 4th but AZ is holding firm at a 3rd. So the Bills will wait to see if Addison is within striking range of the Bills 1st and 3rd. If the Bills can't get him, like Addison goes #17, then the Bills relinquish and pony up the 3rd.

I agree the deliberately misleading headlines are annoying. Had one in this forum and the admins took care of it. I do however love looking at the mocks put out by the various sites. I wish the forum had a running tab of these, and this is different than the ones done by posters in simulators. Like the Kiper one. For instance, this morning's CBS one by Chris Trapasso had the Bills move down to #29 from the Saints and take the man Jack Campbell. In this one Addison went #17, Q Johnston went #22, at #27 went D Kincaid, and after the Bills pick at #30 went D Wright. Second round Bills took the TE S Laporta, pick 71 (from Saints) took Colby Wooden DL, and pick 91 took Warren McClendon OT.

I understand his point. What I am saying is his method of trying to prove it is flawed. We all agree that Beane's best is substantially better than the others best. Give Beane credit for winning the besties, but then take them all out. You can look at what else was done but to compare it to the others you need to take out their best too. It can be like saying an RB's good ypc was inflated because of an outlier 90 yd run so you're going to take it out. And you compare it to another RB while you let them keep their 65 yarder.

C'mon we should know by now Von going to say Von things, attention is for all name players these days. McAfee though wants to look connected. He wants to hit. He only said offensive weapon. So what about Tampa, is M Evans a possibility again? They signed Godwin to $20M/yr and Gage to $10M/yr. Adding in Evans that's a lot of WR money. M Evans comes in at around $14,5M. A little restructure here, add another year there, spice it up with a guarantee and a signing bonus and Beane could probably do it without even having to move Oliver. What's Tampa want for him? Gotta let AZ know there's a little competition. Could be sending a message, the Bills have options.

But shouldn't even an Allen-less comparison have the other GM's subtracting their best player? Beane wins "best player award", and then compare the rest of the field.

Also with 1st rounders it seems easier to negotiate in year 3 for an extended market deal - like Josh did. So even players you might not think have a first round grade get this advantage. Like Jack Campbell or maybe D Washington, if they fit the team and look improving you lock them up early. And when you have a nice core of early extended players you get to do more cap maneuvering in later years. On the flip side it further makes RBs a tougher selection. If you don't want old RBs and have no intention of extending it is a negative. Because 1st round RBs are starting to sit out their Franchise years - Zeke/L Bell. I do not want an RB in the first round.

I think the plan would probably entail moving Oliver which opens up $10M. Also restructure DHop contract-which is done by extending the years of the contract (but they get more upfront - signing bonus and guarantees - thanks Terry). Giving up Edmunds and Oliver and then picking DHop makes it a long shot that the Bills would go offense early in the draft. But we can hope.

Hell no. The unspoken plan has been to divert salaries/cost from the defense to offense. Signing D White would be moving in the opposite direction. The FO let Edmunds go, played hard ball w Poyer, and probably is still contemplating moves with Oliver. They let Frazier leave and have put more emphasis on defensive scheming in the hands of McD, to do more with less. I think/hope if any splash move is to be made, it would be for WR.

I'm hoping the scenario is along the lines of what you're thinking. If possible get Addison, if he makes it into the 20s, maybe what a 3rd would cost for the move up. If not spend the third on DHop. And while I don't think it is reasonable to go DHop and 1st round WR. There could be a small chance the FO could go DHop and one of those good TEs. That would be a great haul.

Yes, to going up for a WR - particularly Addison. A huge NO to moving for B Robinson. A big NO to drafting him at all. If he makes it to 27, some team would want him and we should trade down.

Thanks. Can you tell me when Addison, Q Johnston, and D Washington went. And what were the 3-4 picks after us (the top alternatives). I find it hard to get excited about T Simpson, yes there is a spot for him but it is kind of blah. Much rather get something more offensive and take J Campbell in the second.

In Gunner's mock Addison lasted until the Giants and I think the Bills might give up their 4th to get ahead of the Giants and get Addison. I would be excited. I don't think the Bills would give up a 3rd or more though, like dave mcbride above is suggesting. They could probably get DHop for a 3rd. And I don't think the draft will unfold with Addison available at 24. But I do think there is still a good chance Beane will trade ahead of the Giants. Often times Beane has a player he wants and seems to get nervous/antsy and moves up. This feeling will be increased because it's Beane's students picking just two spots ahead of us.

Moving up 7 spots generally costs a lot though. Moving up two spots last year cost a 4th. I don't think they'll go for much more than that. I like the highlights of Addison but as you allude to I don't think he'll make it to 27. Not with Seattle and Minn along with possibly the Giants.

I posted upstream I think a trade with Jax to get ahead of the Giants is a huge possibility. The common needs of the Bills/Giants and with the Giants having so many ex-Bills on their staff would seem to make it more likely than normal. I used Addison as an example.

For me part of why I like the signing is when they used Klein best it was with an aggressive defense. They sent Klein attacking, either at the RB or at the QB. It hurried the play. I hope to see the defense get more aggressive with McD, and using Klein would be consistent with going in that direction.