Einstein's Dog

I'm on record as saying I thought that unexpected, surprisingly good, start to last season would come back to hurt Daboll/Shoen. They didn't get to do their rebuild. They didn't move Barkley prior to the trade deadline last year - which I think was probably their original plan, because they were at least tied for the lead. Now they've extended D Jones and are in the "pay the RB" club. That's not where you want to be. They look like 3rd place finishers in their division for the next few years.

That's an incredibly poor way to even consider evaluating RBs. The 81 yarder was considerably better than someone elses' 30 yarder that doesn't score. I don't see the reasoning in taking an exceptional result and making it count the same as "really good but also a pretty common result". My adjusted metric would be for an RB to get an aypc (Adjusted Yard Per Carry) that doesn't count TDs or 1st downs unless they are over his average, A typical stat line would then say the RB had 25 attempts for 100 yds, 2 TDs, 7FDs (First Downs) and an aypc of 5.3. This way you are not negatively impacting an RB for getting the tough 1-2 yard 1st down or TD. Singletary's ypc looked good, but one factor was the Bills wouldn't even give it to him when they needed two yards.

I think you have your years wrong. I see it as Evans signed the $82M contract in 2018, he is due $13M in base salary this year, his last year of that contract. Godwin signed a $60M, 3 yr contract in 2022 and Gage signed a $30M, 3 yr contract in 2022. Tampa has a WR salary problem brewing. This wouldn't be tanking from Tampa, just managing a problem situation. But it's a tough sell to the fan base.

The point is, given a choice, Evans would probably want to play the next 2-3 years in Buffalo over Tampa. And if Tampa had a rebuilding mind-set they would probably want to get something for Evans now if they could - because he probably is not in their long term plans. A couple of problems though. Tampa's division stinks so the Bucs might want to have their fans think they have a shot at the division title. Moving Evans, a fan favorite, prior to the season would give off a tank like vibe.

Now you're begrudgingly starting to see the light, remember you started with "lol....the 20-teens HOF??" At the 10 year mark, Evans credentials are above both DHop and Diggs, Evans is on track for the HOF. Mike Evans has gone over 1,000 yards each of the 10 seasons he has been in the league, that is rare company already. If he makes it to 15 in a row he probably will be the only one (Jerry Rice didn't, I Bruce didn't, I didn't check them all). The reason I said he was a potential HOFer was twofold. First, to indicate that M Evans is good. Evans would upgrade our roster in a significant way. Secondly as a potential HOFer the Bills situation could be appealing to him to obtain the statistics he needs to secure the bid. Evans is not more likely to get 1000 yard seasons in Tampa than Buffalo. Tampa is a dumpster fire, their OL is terrible, there is competition in the WR room, and worst of all, their QB in none other than "WR killer" Mayfield (just ask OBJ). In Buffalo as WR2, Evans would easily surpass the 1,000 yard mark (it's 17 games now).

A reason Tampa might move Evans now is because the deal presented to them by the Bills might have a limited time frame on it. The Bills might want Evans in from the beginning of the season. Or the Bills are floating out an offer before they up their offer to DHop. Tampa might want to move him now because Evans is not in their long term plans. Tampa already has too much invested in the WR group and will not be able to offer an aging veteran the market rate he deserves. Generally, the longer you wait, the less you get. The realization that Tampa is going to stink may have been confirmed to them through the OTA performance But now you are able to see that Evans is a potential HOFer right? Stats are right up there, if not slightly better than, those of DHop and Diggs.

Now you're starting to see just how special the career Evans has been putting together. HOF worthy start. So you think the Bills have too many weapons. Remember when Tampa had Godwin/Evans/Gage/and Gronk (with Brate backup). Evans still got his 1k. The Bills would have Diggs/Evans/Davis/and Knox (with Kincaid backup). Evans would get his 1k.

It's yards, not targets, that are the driving stat. While in 10-15 years 15k yardage alone may not be enough. The short elevator pitch of over 15k yards, and over 10 (at least) straight 1,000 yard seasons, and a ring (at least one), will do it. It's not like they will have too many of those where they have to weed them out - DHop won't have that, Diggs will be fighting for it.

I disagree, Evans makes it to 15k yards and he is a lock. Evans already has a signature calling card - over 10 years (every year in the league), over 1,000 yards each year. Not many, if any, WRs can say that. For HOF purposes, continuing that impressive 1,000 yard streak and hitting 15k total should be the prime considerations.

Evans does not need to be WR1 to get 1,000 in Buff. Gabe Davis had over 800 for us last year. Evans has had over 1,000 every season he has been in the league. Since Evans already has a ring, getting close to 15,000 makes him a HOFer, just look at Isaac Bruces resume. Admit it Mr WEO, M Evans a potential HOFer.

Evans has over 10k yards already. If he gets over 15k he's a lock. Three to four years in Buff he gets that yardage and maybe another ring.

Circumstances are a little different this time around. Moving Evans while tough and difficult kind of makes sense for both sides. Evans going to a contender with a quality QB in the later years of his career. And Tampa getting something for someone they won't be able to afford the next year (which would also be a bad fan pressure situation for them).

Doesn't M Evans have the same type of resume as DHop - and DHop is considered potential HOF. Just took a look, Evans stats look like they can be in the ballpark of Isaac Bruce who got in with 15,000+ yards in about 16 seasons. If you add 3-4 more years in Buffalo Evans will be there.

That could be true. He might have a lot invested in the community and Evans might want to stay through thick and thin. Maybe the team and Evans can have a discussion and come to terms that this could be the best for both parties involved. Tampa will be in a tough spot if they have to give Evans his next contract with the investment they already have in the WR room while the rest of the team is in tatters.

I don't think Bowles has anything to do with personnel. And even if he did, this is typical coachspeak. Most coaches would love having $20M Godwin, $10M Gage (although this seems to be a Brady influenced overpay), and also Evans. But it seems unlikely to me that the Bucs will be able to keep him in 2024.

But we have an extra third for Edmunds. And while DHop is available for just money, the money may be too much. It's looking like DHop is wanting over $15M. Evans has a contract with $13M that would be the starting point. Because the Bucs are going to stink. Because the Bucs have no intention of reupping Evans (expecially with Godwin and Gage at pretty big money) Also maybe as a favor to Evans, he may discreetly want out.

He might be. Evans is on the last year of his contract. With the two other WRs under pretty sizable contracts, it seems reasonable that Evans would not be in a rebuilding teams plans. And if Evans isn't in their plans, they might want to move him while they can get a pick.

With over 300 combined pages I am experiencing DHop fatigue. Not only that, my desire for DHop has been reduced some by the skeptics. DHop's age, PEDs, personality, and now chase of the almight $, make me wonder about the alternatives. What about Mike Evans? Tampa could be outright terrible this year. Huge Brady hangover. Recent power ranking had Tampa 3rd or 4th worst in the league and they just had the viral video of pathetic QB play. Yet their WR room is quite expensive - M Evans $13M, C Godwin $20M, and R Gage $10M. M Evans should be able to be had. Pros for Mike Evans: Age: Evans is younger than DHop (8/21/93 v 6/6/92) Drugs: Evans has not been busted for steroids (so Evans can be more aggressive in his supplement routine) Production: Tie - while DHop has 11,298 yards, Evans 10,425 done in one less year culture/personality - Evans seems more level headed, no drama Cost - this is where it gets tricky. DHop looks like he wants greater than OBJ money ($15M), and while IMO DHop has a legitimate point that does not seem like the dollar figure the Bills have in mind. M Evans is on the last year of what was his big contract and it's a reasonable $13M. But to get him the Bills would probably need to send over a decent draft pick (maybe a 3rd) and do an extension for 2-3 years with the usual treats of guarateed money/signing bonus, but done in a decent cap friendly type way. While Evans has a ring, he might be chasing the HOF. And while Evans is classy enough to keep quiet, going to Buffalo would be great for his career. And Tampa has a problem with extending

Do you think the Bucs think 5-12? Unfortunately, I look at that pathetic division and view the Bucs as serious contenders to take it. Atlanta and Carolina stink, and New Orleans has been hampered by cap problems. If the Bucs were of the rebuilding mindset there could be the possibility of moving M Evans. The Bucs have a lot of money tied into the WR room with Evans, Godwin, and R Gage.

"Clutch" means making good plays at key moments. You can be inconsistent but then make excellent plays when needed and be considered clutch. And this is exactly what Gabe was doing when he made spectacular toe tapping catches at the end of the first half against Indy in the playoffs, and then the explosion of offense he put up against KC.

You seem to be confusing consistency with clutch. It was Davis' clutch play in the playoffs, coupled with his upward trend that gave many hope that he would be a fine WR2. Didn't really happen, but it had solid reasoning behind it.

I'd say right now it looks like DHop wants more than the contending teams he would like to play for are offering. Expanding his search to see if any team ponies up more than the $15M OBJ got. I think some team will. I think, like you, that he would elevate the Bills into the top contender category once again. I would love it. I also would now be surprised to see him as a Bill. And I think I will be disappointed. It looks like I value DHop more than the FO (and apparently more than most teams in the league). I didn't think the $19M was outrageous after you smooth out the cap hit and a void year. I think $15M is a bargain and well worth it.

Close - to Dallas for picks and ultimately used for DHop. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/this-cowboys-bills-trade-proposal-sends-intriguing-defender-to-dallas/ar-AA1c2AGM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1cb4a97a5bcc40d6b77558faee3a4e1a&ei=26

True, there might be a variety of weapons, certainly offensive options. But my hope is Kincaid takes over the majority of the snaps and for that to happen it seems like Shakir's time will be affected. Shakir may have been open but as others point out, he ran wrong routes, had some drops, and was pathetic at blocking. If we need to endure some growing pains I would prefer to ride out Kincaid then Shakir. There's some pressure on Dorsey to diversity the offense. And another part of Dorsey's evaluation might be seen as improving the time to integrate his offensive weapons (Cook/Shakir/Hines -all slow last year). Get Kincaid in early!

For me, it's a little complicated. Of course I want Shakir to improve but I want to see Kincaid involved more. I view Shakir and Kincaid as in a slight competition for snaps and i want Kincaid to win. In my mind the offense will go to another level if Kincaid can hit the potential we talk about. The quicker we tap into that the better. Unfortunately snaps and playing time to Shakir may come at the expense of Kincaid.