Einstein's Dog

An interesting aspect for me, is they chose someone with the low floor but high ceiling over McConkey -the higher floor, lower ceiling choice. it all makes sense in my world where a trade for a top WR takes place (then WR2 is Samuel/Coleman split where Coleman ascends throughout the year into a larger role)

But most people would then say that it with the explanation. And the part about how do I say it without being negative and then being negative For T Burks, oh god no, don't we have enough underperforming JAGs. Now, DHop as a backup plan if the others don't come through has possibilities.

I think how Logic took it (and me too) was that the interviewer was giving him one of those softball questions of "Are they sleeping on Trey" where you expect from answering 101 to be "Oh, yeah, Burks is going to light it up, he's learned the ropes, he's practiced hard all off-season. I think people will be surprised." Instead they get "I know I shouldn't say no, so I'll say nien" Implying what you've seen is what you're getting. The guy stinks and will continue to stink. It looks like one of the two are going somewhere. Even if the guy does stink, if he's your teammate you don't say that.

Of course it's possible to struggle with no WR1 or WR2. It perplexes me that people think it is okay to go into the season in this manner. Safe to say the FO knows how poorly this WR group is in comparison to the rest of the league, only the most die-hard of fans struggle to acknowledge it. What a poor strategy it would be to say we'll wait until we struggle to do anything - we know it's a weakness right now. I also feel confident that Beane has known what it would take to get a WR that totally changes the complexion of the WR group. I believe your cap analysis overestimates the potential cap hit of what they could do for a WR. Someone in another thread mentioned that Diggs cap hit with Houston is $6M. An article by a Pitt guy stated that to get Metcalf you would need $13M and then you could do an easy restructure to reduce his cap hit by about $6M.

Yes, you just need to get the money for the initial blast and then restructure. For instance I have included an excerpt from the Dave Bryan article above. His calculations show $13M to be able to get him in and then an easy restructure to have his cap hit be reduced by almost $6M: I disagree with your J Jefferson or nothing approach though. Any top WR that pushes Hollins/MVS/Claypool from any type of meaningful minutes is of value. But Higgins would be far down my list. Metcalf or Aiyuk for a $7M cap hit, on a 4 year contract is what I'm talking about.

Or both can be true - the plan is not to start a rookie day 1 and to have Coleman quickly gain more time on the outside. All makes sense when you factor in an additional good starting level WR on the other side. Then the C Samuel/K Coleman split quickly transitions over to mostly Coleman.

I could very well be disappointed. Judging from responses I'm in a very small minority (looking like just one at the moment). The WR picked up does not have to have a "give me the damn ball" attitude. They could get one of the younger ones that defer to Josh. Even if we have one WR step up to #1 level, you still need another to step up to #2 level - that level hasn't been met yet by the current crew. K Coleman is not supposed to replace either Stef or Gabe, Coleman is a rookie who shouldn't be starting at the beginning of the season. It seems like people are really stretching it to manufacture belief that this is an acceptable WR room. All sorts of excuses and hopes. I think Beane is one of the best GM's in the business. The moves he has made this off-season are all in line with what I wanted. But those moves only look genius level if they are accompanied with the trade for a good WR. Otherwise I would have to retroactively go back and downgrade prior moves. For instance - not double dipping at WR in the draft would look like a poor move, not getting a decent FA like OBJ would look like a mistake, even going back as far as not extending Gabe - mistake. And in retrospect it will look like Beane got played by Diggs if this is the product he is trying to roll with. Like I said I think Beane is a top GM. I don't think Beane made a series of mistakes. I think Beane had a plan. I'm not saying "There's literally 100% chance" of a trade. But I am saying my opinion of the job Beane is doing would be greatly affected by not doing this. I still believe Beane is a top GM, so I believe this is going to happen. I think I've narrowed it down to Aiyuk or Metcalf with the backup plan of D Adams or DHop.

It's hard to get a good WR who isn't a diva. I thought about my earlier comment and I don't think it is the route the Bills are trying to go ( the non-diva route). I just think they just want another good top tier WR to add to the mix. If they wanted non-divas they would have drafted two. There's risk in adding a WR but I hope they are going to take it. Aiyuk made the rumor mill by going the tweet circuit and threatening to hold out. Pretty clear he wants to be paid. It has a lot of the Diggs kind of back story feel to it. Metcalf can give off self centered vibes but I haven't heard of anything else. Adding either of these two would be huge IMO.

Now this is an ironic twist of fate. I think the new trend the Bills may be trying to incorporate is to avoid having a diva WR that demands x amount of targets a game and have all clutch plays designed for them (goodbye Diggs). They are trying to get multiple good WRs out there - sure handed, and YAC guys. Currently the Bills have 3-4 pass catchers that should be at the good category. Adding one that demands attention deep would make it all click. What Metcalf brings is the need for defensive attention. This man-child with speed cannot be (and isn't) left one on one. And while you may not want to rely on him when the chips are down (I don't know his game well enough to refute that) I do know I would want him in the game taking 2 defenders deep to ease the load to create space for Kincaid and/or Shakir. Whereas MVS/Hollins or whatever other dregs we currently have would have CB4 blanketing them. What I saw out of Metcalf was one of his signature plays. It went something like Seattle looked to be about to score and then did their stupidly patented pass the ball thing. it was intercepted and the DB had a clear unabated 99 yards the other way. Metcalf, from the other side of the field, ran him down. It was then that I gave my permission for him to be a Bill. And while I can understand you thinking he thinks he's the biggest fast receiver - well, he pretty much is. Not really a bad thing to add to the Bills.

Why no to Metcalf? You had listed him as one of the hard to get physical freaks, not a yardage accumulator. And it would seem physical freaks are transferable whereas yardage accumulators would be riskier. Metcalf seems like he doesn't demand the ball. But he is someone that demands attention from defenses, and demands attention deep due to his speed, which would open up the underneath for a slew of good pass-catchers, that we happen to now have. I think he would fit in beautifully. I have noticed that Aiyuk has shut up. The whining is not a good quality in Bills mafia land, his agent may have put the muzzle on him.

But if the plan is to have Coleman/Samuel split time as WR2 things make sense. This gives time for Coleman to develop. The first week of June is coming!

Now you're coming around to my way of thinking, a trade for a WR will reshape the entire WR room. And it needs it. But your theory crashes and burns as far as it relating to a Bills strategy - which is fine by me. I don't want Deebo though, for me it's Aiyuk or Metcalf. Having a quality WR room should be a priority, especially when you have a QB like Josh. Go easy on RB investment and put the resources into pass catchers. The Bills offense was rocking when it had 4 decent WRs (the Diggs/Brown/Beas/G Davis days). Can you imagine that type of talent with the additions of Kincaid and Cook? That's what Beane should be giving Brady/McD. That is within the grasp with this one move. The world has not moved on from the value of having a potent, multiple offense.

I think Beane and the FO have done a great job of creating low expectations. They've allowed, even promoted, the lowered expectations behind this cap problem while avoiding the criticism that this is an issue they created. You're right, seems pretty easy at June 1st with the $10M Tre money and a couple restructures (which could potentially include Josh as well) that they would easily have over $15M which seems enough to afford either Metcalf or Aiyuk - who happen to be my top two hopes. Look at the advantages of adding one of Metcalf/Aiyuk Entire offensive playmakers set for years - Josh 4+yrs, Metcalf/Aiyuk new contract 4+, Kincaid 4, K Coleman 4, Samuel 3, Shakir 2, Cook 2, Davis 4,Knox2 All playmakers would be younger than Josh, easy to see Josh as the leader in Phase 2 No worries about players aging out. All players younger than Josh who is 28 (today, Happy Birthday Josh) This addition makes a case for year over year improvement: Metcalf/Aiyul > Diggs, C Samuel/K Coleman > G Davis, Shakir24 > Shakir23, Kincaid24>Kincaid23. It all comes together. It all makes sense. It was Beane's plan all along (the guy is good).

My apologies if I mistook you for other posters. Please do not put much stock in these alleged wise posters who continue to change their cap/salary implications. It is safe to say Beane has a much better grip on what it takes. And a good GM would have positioned himself to meet the requirements (I believe he has). For instance it seems quite safe to say that after June 1st there is the potential for a surge in funds that should be sufficient to bring in a top tier WR (Tre money + potential restructures + potentially another preplanned hit to Josh = > $15M). The article above mentions $13M needed for Metcalf and Aiyuk looks to be about $14M. The acquired WR can then have their contract restructured - much like Diggs had his restructured to a $6M cap hit. Who cares if Beane says he is okay with the WR room? That is just blather, what else is he supposed to say. What matters is if he actually believes it, which is hard to believe any reasonable person would. Only diehard Beane fans can twist the top three WRs of; WR2/3 from Wash, a second round rookie, and last years WR3, as an acceptable WR room. And I agree with you that that is not a rebuild- a rebuild would have been with 2 drafted WRs - right now it's just pathetic. That's not what a good GM does. It's okay to have different hopes/expectations. You can be anxious for camp, I want to see what the first week of June brings.

Fair enough. And for me: 1. The addition of a good WR changes dramatically the entire off-season moves. It ties in everything he has done (and I was rooting for). But it all hinges on his finishing it off. The state of the WR room is hanging in the balance. 2. Now you're adjusting your amateur capology to say you have to cover the salary. Prior it was cap hit. Some internet quote (you put in this thread) said cap hit minus bonus. The linked article said the Steelers would need $13M to cover Metcalf (and that there could be a restructure done with no void years that would reduce his 2024 salary by almost $6M). And you say I'm making assumptions? Whatever, I'm confident Beane knows what it is and has planned for it. Once again, it's his job. And from the tidbits we have seen it is totally reasonable to think it can be done. 3. What about when Beane said "we will never rebuild as long as Josh is my quarterback". That's the Beane I choose to believe.

Once again you're going into the weeds of Beane's job. As an overview though you can see how with a short term boost to around $15M allows Beane to bring on a top WR. And this time your research has you conclude that, in fact, he could afford Metcalf if he had $15M, which would also be enough for Aiyuk and DHop - probably D Adams too. We've seen how with a WR such as Diggs, a high priced WR can be restructured down to a cap hit of only $6M. So it's just a short term boost and we can stop the reduction talks of how much draft picks are etc. Beane is getting $10M Tre money June 1st, all he needs is another $5M to bring a top WR on board. Of course he can get that. It's my contention that he has been planning on this since he moved Diggs out. And while it may have never been done before the meat on the bone with Josh very well could have been his back up plan to make sure he has the funds to make this happen. Seems logical to me, something a smart GM would do. There is speculation (okay, it's me) that Beane made a gentleman's deal with the SF GM for Aiyuk prior to the draft. I do seem to be the only one expecting such a move. My logic has been this: Beane is a great GM, a great GM does not have a pathetic WR room while Josh is in his prime. Therefore this WR room is not done. With the thought that the WR is not done, I've actually been pleased with several developments. I didn't want the Bills trading up for a top 3 WR. I didn't want 2 WRs drafted, that would have meant to me that the FO was going through with a rebuild. I didn't want to get a high priced FA WR, they weren't good enough. The move I have hoping for was to get a good proven WR. Everyone's fine or great if we get a good WR. The difference seems to be if we don't get one. For me, not getting one drastically reduces my opinion of Beane. Terrible off-season out of him. Having a bottom 5 WR group doesn't cut it in my book. This WR move is the lynchpin of the evaluation of his offseason, with it - excellent transition to youth/reload, without it what a disappointment. If Beane doesn't trade for a good WR, the other moves - not moving up, not drafting 2 WRs (like Franklin late), not getting a good better FA WR (like OBJ) - all moves I had rejoiced in - look like mistakes.

I think it would help to take a step back and look at the big picture. It's Beane's job to know the cash requirements of getting a trade WR on board and then what salary he would want to reduce that to. He knew/knows those numbers and has a plan to meet them. That's what a top GM does. Going into the specifics is difficult for us. But it does seem reasonable to think it requires the $10M Tre money. Then I think it would be about only $5Mish more needed to bring a big fish WR in before restructuring. As you mention Aiyuk is $14.5.. And for Metcalf you list his $24.5 cap but aren't subtracting the bonus money (which is what oldmanfan's rules stated). Metcalf had a $30M bonus so even if prorated for $10M, Metcalf could make it for the brief $15M cash on hand. You don't see Josh restructuring again, just because. But I can see this as part of the plan all along.

Appreciate the response, some comments. 1. Top 10? How about we get a top 30 WR? 2. How is Diggs a case in point for you? You mention he is a $6M cap hit, which is exactly what I am talking about. The ability to get an Aiyuk/Metcalf/D Adams/DHop at that price is what I think many don't realize could happen. How does restructuring Diggs to $6M mean that the guys I outlined cap hits would be SO massive? Kind of suggests the opposite to me. The cap hit can be manipulated to future years. 3. It seems like people's bias show through. People that like Beane but don't think a WR addition is happening are making all kinds of excuses. There is this Teflon Beane going on. Several people in this thread said "No One", like they really wouldn't want a good WR? One eluded to reading Shaw's explanation - like adding a good WR would ruin Beane's genius plan to run a bunch of WR2's out there. Others throw their hands up and say "Beane can't do it because of the cap". Like Beane has no influence on the cap. 4. I thought there would be like minded people to me, that believes Beane is a top GM and a top GM will be making a move. What that move is exactly was open for discussion. We haven't been able to get that far. Many feel the need to chime in and reiterate how in their opinion it can't/won't be done. This has been highlighted by the step by step rebuttal of each of what I perceived to be signs ending with what I hope will be a not soon forgotten classic "there is literally a 0% chance". Back to the OP - I am now rooting for one of the younger options Metcalf/Aiyuk. It would make for a Phase 2 for offense. We would have playmakers set for several years and Josh would be the veteran. Look at the years Josh-locked in, Kincaid 4, Coleman 4, new young stud WR Aiyuk/Metcalf 4, Samuel 3, Shakir 2, Cook 2, Davis 4. That offense would have just minor changes for the next 4 years! And that would be a young, potent, talented offense.

Which is why the Bills only drafting one is curious. We had 2 depart. Hopefully they'll keep replenishing regularly now.

Was Ronnie Harmon before your time? Most notable alligator arming in Bills history.

I'm obviously having trouble accepting this. Still in denial. The MVS signing did hurt in terms of the odds of what I want to happen. But it doesn't change my overall feeling that Beane won't let the Bills main components of the WR room be C Samuel/rookie Coleman/Shakir.

Yes, when you trade you have to accept some type of contract (oldmanfan quoted cap hit minus bonus). That is why everyone is thinking June 1st is relevant. I don't mind trading Diggs, I kind of like it, if there is a suitable replacement. C Samuels is not IMO (and many others) a suitable replacement. C Samuels/K Coleman combine to make for a suitable replacement (arguably upgrade) over G Davis. I think Beane is an intelligent GM. An intelligent GM would not move Diggs and Davis without a plan to replenish the WR room. So far the WR room is woefully inadequate, yet would all come together with one trade. I don't know how you can be so sure Aiyuk wasn't part of it - SF just drafted 2 WRs with one in the first round - when they have Deebo/Aiyuk/CMC/Kittle with contracts for Aiyuk + Purdy looming.

This year's group looks in more dire need of a top WR than when they traded for Diggs. People thinking as it stands this is a fine job by Beane start to lose a little credibility in my book. The WR group is just too limited. I can get around the DE problem, but not the WR. And the cap excuse doesn't cut it with me either, that is part of his job. And I feel it can be worked (and actually will). Oldmanfan had asked how one move could mean so much. It is because it is the lynchpin move. An additional top tier WR changes the whole outlook of the WR group. It becomes better than last year IMO. It brings together all the little things Beane did (or didn't do).

Not stupid at all IMO. Tua made it intact through a whole season last year. And by negotiating now, the Fins would be in real trouble without him this season. Tua probably gave the idea of retiring a lot of thought the last two years . And he now knows what priority the Fins have for his well-being when the ran him back out there after being concussed in the Bills game. Another big blow and I could see him calling it quits. It would take money early if I were him. And I would squeeze every dime out of Miami as well.

What would you give up for Aiyuk? You mentioned earlier you would go with a 1st+ for Metcalf. How do you rate my 4 top contenders - Aiyuk/Metcalf/DHop/D Adams?