Einstein's Dog

I agree, especially if Cook does not improve. While Cook had good 2023 numbers he didn't look special in the eye test. A lot of what he did was based on circumstances, being the RB1 for the team and having a better O line. I hope the FO gets back to the strategy of inexpensive RBs - and put those resources into WR (and of course the franchise QB).

I didn't address the draft compensation because your complaint was about cost. The Bills have an extra 2nd + 4th for 2025 so they have plenty of ammo. I think the Bills could offer up a 1st + 4th for either Metcalf or Aiyuk. They just fit the Bills current roster like gloves- bring the entire offseason moves together. It would create a young Phase 2 on the offense. Metcalf/K Coleman/Shakir /Samuel w Kincaid + Cook/Davis what a new core for several years. If Beane can't swing it for either of those 2, I would offer a 2nd to the Raiders for D Adams. Get him on a 2 year deal. If that doesn't work DHop for the late 2nd for 2 years. As to your earlier question to someone else I was worried about the doubling down with Franklin. He was there in the third. That would have been the rebuild way to go IMO. If the Bills don't do a trade for a vet WR, I will be wondering why Beane didn't do that.. At the time I was rooting against it because it would have signaled to me the end of the WR search.

Cap space is fluid, especially a year out. Remember the thread from tranplantbillsfan "$23 million in CAP in 2025 if no more moves as of 5/14". The point is a team should be able to afford an expensive QB, expensive WR1 and expensive LT. That has been a gold standard strategy that the Bills have applied.

Why can't the Bills pay market rates for a top tier WR? It's been an excellent working strategy to date. Just because they shipped Diggs out doesn't mean you abandon the winning strategy. The Bills have adopted an inexpensive RB room, in part to allocate funds to the WR. With a backloaded contract a WR like Aiyuk could be done. The Bills currently have very inexpensive offensive playmakers under contract for several years so having one expensive playmaker should be able to be budgeted. It had been in the past. Prices for good WRs is on the rise. Lets not shut down reasonable discussion of the Bills wide receiver situation just because you have a preset bias. You believe the Bills won't add a WR and can't afford it under the cap. I don't fully buy into Beane's off-season words, think the strategy all along has been to add one, and believe it is entirely possible cap-wise.

I'm with you, I'd much rather be looking at what Franklin could be than giving chances to the retreads of Claypool or MVS (and lets face it Hollins was never supposed to be a starting outside WR). For me, if they bring in a top tier WR via trade it all makes sense. Then you don't take two in that instance because it would conflict with the path/increased role for Shakir. The backup for K Coleman would be the versatile C Samuel - while not the same type of player you can adjust the offense until he develops. If they don't add a top tier WR, I am baffled and disappointed at the new direction.

Mortgaging or Investing? Getting a real WR1 for several years is team building. Getting an Aiyuk or Metcalf is not some band-aid, it's obtaining a bedrock core piece of Phase 2 of Josh's career. You're okay with D Adams or DHop who are much older? Those would be fallback positions IMO. They would solve the 2024 problem but would have 2026 questions. I don't know which ones are really available, just showing there seem to be options. It's Beane's job to bring one in. SF is acting like they are moving someone (drafted 2 WRs and just gave $10M guaranteed to J Jennings).

I would add any of Metcalf/Aiyuk/Sutton/D Adams/DHop.. No to BTJ. The addition of one of those takes the CB1 and safety and changes the way defenses will play us. This helps the rest of the offense which I think is pretty solid. The addition also moves down Hollins/MVS/Claypool.

I think adding a top tier WR changes the whole evaluation of the off-season offensive moves for the better. It takes the offensive talent to a different level. I believe the moves made allow for a WR and it would not be all in. They have the room for this WR for several years. There is an incredibly young core of offensive playmakers. Lets not forget that cap management is part of Beane's job. If he really opts to do this radical of a rebuild in Josh's prime, he should face the music.

It seems the majority of Bills fans do not think a good WR will be added. The love for Beane is deep and they cannot admit that it would be a huge stain on his resume if we go into a prime Josh season without a top 32 WR on the roster. On the flip side all the off-season moves come together into an excellent plan with just this one move. It's the linchpin move. It's the plan behind moving Diggs, why he didn't take any of the mediocre FA WRs, part of why he didn't double dip on WRs in the draft, why he didn't initially take all Josh money. Apparently, I am the only one who sees this. IMO Beane can continue to be a great GM, these are all things I would have done - I was rooting for them. But to not finish it off would result in a huge downgrade of my evaluation of Beane. June 3rd is Monday. It's coming. These type of ridiculous excuse threads will roll off the pages.

The above "they've shown they don't want to" is where I disagree with many here. What I see is a short term blip, over the long haul they do want good WRs. Their strategy is the sound strategy of paying a franchise QB, DE, WR1, LT - and there had been CB1. Just because they temporarily moved out their WR1 doesn't mean to me that they totally revised their strategy. Yes, the Bills had cap issues, but I don't think their idea is to take a year off from being contenders because of it. That would be a huge mea culpa and would be a massive stain on the resume of Beane. I don't think he ever intended to do that. It looks to me like Beane has fooled a lot of people. IMO, getting a top WR would not be kicking the can down the road. It would be in the form of a thought out plan. That plan has the room for around a $30M WR1. Look how inexpensive all the rest of the offensive playmakers are - and that they are covered through 2025 - Josh 4, K Coleman 4, Kincaid 4, Samuel 3, Shakir 2, Cook 2 with backups Davis 4 and Knox. The 2025 cap should not be a problem, it can handle a top tier WR, looks to me like that is a good fit. But why wait until 2025 when you can get a WR1 now. So if you get one for 2024 I would think the Bills would do it quickly after the Tre money comes in. Because if they want Metcalf or Aiyuk you want to get them before J Jefferson's contract hits which should reset the market. And if the Bills wanted to go big and get J Jefferson they would want to do that early also to put Miami (T Hill) and Cincy (J Chase) into chaos. Plus the Bills would need every available fund prior to being able to bring J Jeff's $19.7M cap hit. I'll be getting up early on Monday June 3rd.

I think/hope some of the Brady changes were to adapt to the personnel he had. I think Brady wanted to move away from the dependence on Diggs + Davis and rely more on the Kincaid/Shakir/Cook as the core of the offense. Brady did well with limited tools he had IMO. IMO, the strategy should not be to keep Brady working with a limited personnel but instead try and improve on the WRs. With this strategy you give Brady a better top tier WR, replace Davis with eventually K Coleman but while he learns you cover for him with Samuel. You slightly increase Shakir's involvement, at pretty much the level he had the second half of the season. And keep Kincaid at or a slight bit more than the second half of the season also.

A couple of comments for you. Yes, I believe you will hear it for a while, but in an instance above they were quoting the article by Florio. Florio's article came out after yours and was eerily similar. The person above didn't say Hill and Waddle, they said just Waddle was more than the Bills WR and TE combined (I'm not sure why they didn't throw in our inexpensive RB room but maybe they didn't have the $5M to spare). In my world that is another clue that a WR is on the way, the Bills entire current offensive playmaker budget is incredibly inexpensive - and is for 2025 as well. It could easily support one top tier WR IMO -and they should do it!

What? T Brady had M Evans and C Godwin - both expensive (along w Gronk) M Stafford had C Kupp and OBJ I think it would be wise for the Bills to invest in a good WR. Some teams are now doing the expensive QB/WR1/WR2 route like Philly. I don't know how they're going to do it. But I agree the Dolphins are going to be in trouble soon.

Yeah and to think many expect the Bills to not have any part of getting a top WR. Like the price will be coming down. Or they're not important. The market is full of comparables now, the amount a DK Metcalf or Aiyuk should get won't be too hard to figure out. These teams could be hurrying to get deals done because they fear the June 1st surge will notch up the level (see Collins and now Waddle). They may be right. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Bills give J Jefferson a record setting backloaded contract in a huge trade. A 1st, 2nd, and 4th might get it done.

Some responses: The question wasn't who will be the top WR, the question is who do you think is the top Bills WR now, going into the 2024 season? You avoided answering it, and it's easy to understand why, an answer of C Samuel or a second round rookie is embarrassingly bad. You are wrong when you say I wasn't a fan of K Coleman. I like the pick, just not as an immediate replacement for Diggs or Davis. I think K Coleman needs developmental time. You say the WR is set and it is *clearly* the course. Your definitive tone is just your bias on what you think is going to happen. Just like when you were shown the error of your "can't do it for cap reasons", your fuzzy math on targets is full of errors. And 6 WRs is a possibility, as well as one of your "locks" not making it (ie OJ Howard). I'm surprised by how many people think Beane will have done a good job if the top WR in 2024 is scheduled to be C Samuel.

With the continued news of J Jefferson and the rumors of trade still going on, I probably should not have overlooked your suggestion. J Jefferson was not extended by Minn, rumors floated that Minn wanted to move up and get Naber. J Jeff probably wouldn't mind leaving Minn and the rookie QB . Florio has stated Minn could be open to trading him if the offer is right. The Bills have an excellent trade history with Minnesota. Neither Florio or the Connor Orr article mention what the right offer is exactly. The Bills would need to unload draft capital, have around $20M to take J Jeff on, and then give J Jeff the biggest WR to date. All are theoretically possible. Give up a 1st and 2nd, have the Tre money + Josh restructure + Oliver restructure, then backload a massive contract for about 6 years. Wouldn't that be something.

My question is who do you consider the Bills best WR heading into the season? Not X or WR1, just the on-paper best WR the Bills have going into 2024. I can understand your apprehension in answering this question, because it doesn't bode well for Beane at this time. My point in saying Beaneologist is when I bring up actions that I consider signs, people respond with words from Beane. And those words are selected from a vast pool. And much like the Happydays example the ones they consider applicable are the ones they want/think are going to happen.

All our resident Beanologists and their interpretations of the quotes according to Beane. What happened to "Don't expect Coleman to be the starter week 1" or "I would never do a rebuild as long as I have Josh Allen as my QB". With so many Beane quotes, I'm glad we have people who can definitively interpret and explain the contradictions that arise. Who do you consider the top WR on the Bills roster right now for the 2024 season? Because it really wouldn't change my overall mantra from before, which was: "Beane is a great GM, a great GM would never have C Samuel as his top WR" to something like "Beane is a great GM, a great GM would never count on a second round WR, 8th WR taken, as his expected top WR" - which should really bring home why I don't think he is done.

My hope is they passed on the lesser options to wait for this June 1st opportunity and go big! I think it has been their strategy for some time to have an inexpensive RB room so they can pay their top WR. They are just switching who the top WR is for the next few years.

Appreciate your thoughts. A couple of differences: 1. You expect much more from K Coleman than I do. You think in his rookie year he is slated for WR1 duty. I think a lower bar is more reasonable. Kincaid was a first round selection and the first TE taken, and he needed developmental time. K Coleman is a second round pick and the 8th WR taken. K Coleman is also young and relatively inexperienced. A thoughtful plan seems to me to be having K Coleman's role this year to be expanding throughout the season, much the way Kincaid's went. I also don't see why you would think K Coleman is more of a fit than McConkey if the plan was to have them start from day 1. It seemed by most that McConkey was more pro-ready. I also don't see how you can say it's confirmed that Coleman is WR1, there's a long way to go before camp. 2. Let me rephrase - the RB room is incredibly inexpensive. They have a late 2nd rounder, a 4th rounder, and some inexpensive vets. The money should go somewhere and IMO a WR would make the strategy a success.

I think as others as pointed out that you do need some capital on hand to do the deal. It is a little murky (to me at least) exactly what it is, one excerpt said cap hit minus bonus, another article said $13M would be needed on hand for Pitt to get Metcalf. Pretty clear $14Mish is enough to bring Aiyuk on board. It would take close to $20M to get J Jefferson which would take pulling all the levers for a short period of time. It makes the June 1 date with Tre money coming in exciting. Because then it should be easy to get the needed amounts for many of these potential WR targets. And the Bills would probably want to do it when the funds are available before they spend some of it on other things.

And many of those other teams would be embarrassed to list a 4th round rookie and MVS, Hollins. or Claypool. Those should not count.

I don't listen intently to Beane, he says a lot of things and people may need to give him a break. Will you really say he was lying if the Bills trade for a WR? No, you will go back and look at everything he said from a different angle and realize there was more than one way to look at it. Just like many did when they surprisingly brought in Von or surprisingly let Diggs go. Keon is not intended to be the Bills WR1 in his rookie year - that's crazy talk. They traded down twice before taking him for Pete's sake. A much better plan would be for Keon to split time with C Samuel and eventually take the role over - opposite a top tier WR. Reasons I now expect a trade for a WR are the following: 1. I was of the opinion for several months of this "Beane is a great GM, a great GM would never have their top WR be C Samuel during a year in Josh's prime". With that in mind I was rooting against trading up for one of the big three in the draft, 2. No large FA WR acquisition - I didn't want one of the more expensive mediocre FA WRs, keeping in mind number 1 above of course. 3. Only took one WR in the loaded class. I was hoping for just one, keeps a spot open without infringing on Shakir development. The one taken (Coleman) was never intended to be Diggs replacement - see above, he is taking the G Davis role over with C Samuel. Once again this is great in conjunction with number 1 above - otherwise what are they doing? 4. Beane let Diggs go - I feel he did so with a plan in place, he wasn't goaded into it. No GM's plan is to replace Diggs with C Samuel and a rookie. 5. Josh restructure and Tre money, gives available funding for just such a move. We all somewhat guess on the specifics but I trust Beane knows the details. 6. Draft capital - extra 2nd and extra 4th 7. Incredibly young, inexpensive, and cap friendly offensive playmakers for 2024 + 2025. No more money needed on O for a couple of years. People say we would be cramped capwise - who cares everyone on offense is accounted for through 2025. 8. Recent strategy has been go cheap in RB room for investment in WR1. They continued to go even cheaper in RB room with Davis as RB2. The strategy was solid and there should be no regrets so far. The idea that the Bills will adopt a new strategy and go with JAGs at RB and WR blows me away. 9. Took K Coleman over McConkey - if they needed/wanted pro-ready McConkey seemed like the choice. 10. Without a WR1 the need will be there again next year. Prices are headed up, J Jeff and J Chase coming up. Do it now and save. Mainly the reason I expect it though, is all these moves are what I would have done, and I would be bringing in a trade for a top tier WR. All these moves I was rejoicing in would have to be re-evaluated. Without the trade for a WR it looks like a litany of errors out of Beane, not what I would expect. I understand I'm in the minority. But "literally 0% chance" is a little harsh.

Right, they would have something worked out pre-trade. Certainly there would be a large guarantee and a signing bonus. The whole thing would be well orchestrated in advance of the trade. It's having the money to handle the initial transfer that makes the June 1st date with the Tre money relevant. And they may need to do it while they have the full pot of the money available.

But after taking in a WR the FO can restructure and play games with the cap. For instance after having the funds to bring in Metcalf they could then restructure his contract to a cap hit to around $7M (see DHop 23 salary of $1.8M or Diggs cap hit in 2024 of $6M). So in your example above, they restructure Josh, get the money to bring in Metcalf. Immediately restructure Metcalf to around $7M cap hit and the Bills have $10M+ left ($10M Tre + $6M Josh + $2M to start - $7M Metcalf). You don't wait until the trade deadline, the number 1 seed is important. Also if you wait you might not have the funds available for the initial surge needed to bring someone in. For example you need around $15M to bring in an Aiyuk or Metcalf before you can restructure- as best as I can tell, those are the rules.