Einstein's Dog

I liked the Samuel signing at the time. I think he is a reasonably priced WR2/3. And he has versatility to back-up both Shakir and a little of Cook. Much better IMO than McKenzie or Sherfield/Harty. And at that time we still had DIggs, so I thought Samuel would be the second outside WR until a rookie could take it. This is why I'm wondering when exactly they decided they had to move Diggs. If it was early (like pre- C Samuel signing) it doesn't make as much sense to me. If they knew they were moving Diggs they had a huge hole at outside WR- with both Diggs + Davis leaving. A rookie was never intended to be an immediate answer. But even if intended to be an intermediate answer K Coleman seems an odd choice - a young, raw, athletic, high ceiling type. And why would you give up the 5th year option on that type of WR. Having a "kicking the can down the road" contract for a top tier WR is what I thought they would do. I continued thinking it right up through the Tre money.

My point was they gave C Samuel a good portion of the amount of money allocated to the WR position, and he has not been primarily an outside WR. C Samuel was guaranteed $15M with an out for 2026, so that is $7.5M/yr of real money. You can play cap games with anyone, DHop had a $1.8M salary last year for Tenn and Diggs a cap hit of around $6M for Houston this year. The Bills chose not to allocate real money and play cap games with a top tier outside WR.

I like the addition of Davis, much better backup than the retread veterans of yore. Plus it continues the good strategy of grooming in-house and not maybe not paying vet RBs. I say "maybe' because J Cook might be the exception. If you extrapolate J Cook's rapid improvement rate he has the potential to be exceptional - on the level of McCaffery. Yes, I said it. J Brady sees it and was designing plays to be more centric to the abilities of J Cook and away from Diggs and Davis. The ball security issues reduced dramatically, even with more touches, indicates he is more mentally focused. Next up are the drops. The talked about drops from Cook were higher degree of difficulty catches than most RBs get. These were not the behind the line type Singletary malfunctions. J Cook is improving before our eyes and so many people here can't see it. J Brady is behind it. As currently constructed, J Cook is designed to be a huge piece of the upcoming season. Kincaid/Cook/Shakir are the main cogs surrounding Josh. J Cook is a high buy IMO in FF. We see what J Brady is doing, and J Cook is going to be the showcase RB in a more conservative, yet potent offense. Cook is in an ideal situation.

My original point to BFF19 above was to rebut his T Franklin is not good because teams passed on him, teams passed on K Coleman too. To your point, Beane clearly had a tier that was grouped similarly. He couldn't have known who everyone was taking, and trades could swoop in on teams over us. Beane was willing to take that chance. Beane in that Dunne article said something to the affect that K Coleman was young and needed to be molded like clay. Not something you would say about someone you would want to plug and play for Diggs. One of the tradebacks was to drop out of the first round. Carolina seems to have wanted to get Legette in the first for the 5th year option. Doesn't seem the same level of interest out of Beane for Coleman.

But what's Beane's excuse? Beane is known to hold a grudge, remember the Washington fiasco. McDermott may have forgiven Dunne but Beane didn't have to help that guy out.

They may have had K Coleman/McConkey/T Franklin/Pearsall all in the same tier. If may have been a reason the Bills were comfortable moving down in the draft. But the Bills draft strategy may have been to just take one WR early. And then draft other positions that they felt could fill a need throughout the remaining rounds. WR, S, DT, RB, OC, LB, DE, OT, CB. That's nine players on rookie salaries.

I agree we could use all 3. But once the FO knew they had the cap/cash constraints they had to make choices. With a limited budget putting $8M into the Crowder/McKenzie role seems excessive, especially in light of not having the Diggs/Davis roles secured. That's why I wonder if things didn't go further south after they acquired C Samuel. I had thought for a long time that the plan was Samuel as the bridge for the rookie at outside while being the major backup for Shakir. A versatile piece that fit in with a dual role (and potentially help fill part of the J Cook role if he got injured). That's valuable. Having Samuel slated as a starting outside WR is not his strength. Getting an expensive backup when you need two outside WRs though doesn't make as much sense.

Well the plan shouldn't just be for the 2024 season. SF who doesn't have immediate need for a WR used a 1st and 4th- seems like they have a plan. Remember when the Bills needed a CB and drafted Elam and a 6th- that was wise for the CB room that year (even though in my mind that was the year they should have been planning for the WR problem, going C Watkins or Pickens). To me, if we had K Coleman and T Franklin the future would be more exciting. Speaking of not having much of a plan, what is the thinking for 2025? Right now the same major void at WR looms. Maybe the plan is to wait several weeks in and see if they can get a WR from one of the losing franchises that need a QB, Raiders/Tenn/Seattle. But that comes across as more of a desperation move than a plan.

I agree this lineup with the old-style Diggs would be extremely potent. I wonder when the Diggs situation got so bad. To me, it was when Diggs did the flag football at the pro bowl. It was hard for me to process that Diggs wasn't hurt. His actions/play the second half were unacceptable without a nagging injury. It seemed like for the upcoming season it would be a choice between Diggs and J Brady, they weren't compatible. It seems like for the FO it was a little later. Because without Diggs the C Samuel acquisition doesn't look as good of a match. The need for an outside WR would have been a much higher priority IMO. Blame for Beane can be more recent than Diggs/Von. After trading Diggs, there should have been a better plan than this IMO. The double dip would look a lot better to me. We saw SF do it while having Deebo + Aiyuk already on board - in anticipation of not being able to keep someone when Brock gets paid.

In your opinion who should I direct my disdain/frustration that the Bills best on-paper WR for 2024 is looking to be C Samuel. That's disgraceful. How do you assign blame: 1. J Brady - you mention above you think this might be his hand-picked ragamuffin crew. Ouch. But seems any OC would want better material to work with, even if they have a preferred scheme to spread it out. 2. Beane - no way around placing some blame here, really a matter of just how much. An incredibly disappointing offseason IMO on this WR issue. 3. McDermott - kind of a stretch IMO, but he certainly seems to be able to roll with the situation, and seems to favor complementary football. And if you want out of J Brady you kind of have to get rid of McD too. 4. Beane/McD/+Brady - joint decision. If the Bills miss the playoffs they all should go. Bring in B Johnson or B Belichick 5. Pegula - could be going cheap a bit. May have directed the whole crew for a cap reset and in the process give them a mulligan for the season. I don't think the front office has made a significant investment/pre-pay since we lost Kim's influence. However, even with limited resources Beane must take some accountability in how it was spent/drafted. 6. The plan may be to make-do this year and get reinforcements, in a decently priced WR, next year, prior to the new stadium opening. I'm certainly hoping for this over the idea that having a test run for how a ragamuffin crew can compete decently - and thus not bother getting good WRs.

I wouldn't care much except for the WR dilemma. Now with no top tier WRs, I don't want that to become the plan going forward. It makes me nervous about what happens with positive results. I don't want the "dime a dozen WR" strategy.

Also there have been Superbowl winners that invested in WRs. Tampa had M Evans/C Godwin (along with Gronk and Gage), and LA had C Kupp + OBJ.

I agree with most of what you said. The only thing I might view differently is we have a pretty good idea of the kind of offense Brady will run - similar to the end of last year,. It's not so much an overhaul at WR as an on-paper downgrade. Last year it looked like the personnel at outside WR derailed Dorsey's offense. Seems unlikely J Brady would reinstitute that type of offense with people less suited for it (MVS/Claypool vs Diggs/Davis). The real question to me is how much do they have Josh run. If Josh is put on restriction again.

How can you even entertain the idea that it is a clean swap? C'mon, I know you said "extremely charitable" but even that is too much. There is no like for like in this year over year analysis. The market value of what we had vs have: Diggs $20M, G Davis $13M, Sherfield (Minn), and Harty (Balt). Now have Samuel $8M, K Cole $2.5M and borderline types of MVS/Claypool (Sherfield/Harty equivalents). That's over $20M less of market value worth in WRs. And RBs went from L Murray to 4th rounder. And even TEs although the same Knox took a pay cut.

I do think moving on from Diggs had to happen if they wanted to keep J Brady. After the season I was kind of shocked to see Diggs didn't have an injury. His actions (and play) towards the end of the season were a problem. So, I can understand the move, I just don't like the replacement plan. As for double dipping, anyone the Bills got in the 3rd-4th would have been passed by everyone else. Of course. K Coleman was pretty much passed by everyone else and Beane was so unafraid of him getting picked that he traded down twice. Doesn't mean Coleman can't be good. At the time I was rooting against the double dip and hoping Beane had bigger plans. But now in retrospect I am wishing there was another 3rd-4th rounder to watch develop instead of plugging my nose and hoping Claypool or MVS can turn it around. Actually I'm excited about the rest of the playmakers except for the outside WRs. That makes it a little more frustrating. We're so close to an overall explosive offense.

Seems like a missed move. Not only would DHop have been a great fit in Dorsey's system - which had crushing blow after blow by G Davis- it would have been a great bridge for knowing they were moving on from G Davis the next year. And it could have been Diggs insurance. There could have been some downside though - Diggs may have quit earlier, thrown some type of diva hissy fit.

Most of what you are bringing up is just showing either a disregard or misstep on the WR room. For me, I wanted a WR instead of the Elam pick (Watkins/Pickens). The next year really pleased with the Kincaid pick but was hoping for a DHop pick up. Those were moves that could have helped bolster the weapons before this season. Beane knew the Bills weren't extending G Davis, there should have been some succession planning. Beane made the decision to unload Diggs. Currently a disgruntled Diggs looks better than any WR we have. It comes off now as looking like Beane went to Diggs to take a pay cut. Diggs refused with "Ready for watever" and "Well...." coming to mind. Beane looked pretty smart playing hard ball with Von and Knox, coming away with concessions. Not so good with the Diggs situation. I thought Beane would have had a backup plan. Even with everything that happened with Diggs, Beane could have double dipped in the draft, a second (Coleman) and late 3rd (Franklin), coupled with OBJ things would seem a lot better.

I had the similar thoughts on how Beane presents himself. Yet, what then was his plan when he traded Diggs? Because what we currently have does not seem like the result of a wizardly plan. Just when the rest of the young core starts to look above average (Kincaid/Cook/Shakir) the rug of the outside WRs get pulled out from underneath. And did Beane/McD/Brady get together and decide on a shorter passing game? The ball control, shorter, YAC, Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel/Cook check down. Because clearly that's what we're best suited for at this time. I'm hoping this isn't a long term thing. And the selection of K Coleman seems odd with this mix. He's younger, seems less pro-ready, than some of the other available choices. And while we think he may have been Beane's choice all along, Beane traded down twice with one trade down giving away the 5th year tag option. I'm having difficulty reconciling my previous thoughts of a guy with a plan, thinking several moves ahead, with the total chaos of the Diggs/outside WR situation.

I used to think Beane was a top GM. Now, I'm in shock with what he is doing this year, it is not up to previous standards. A cap reset that includes one of the worst WR rooms I could have imagined, during one of Josh's prime years. This is so out of character I've wondered if there might be Pegula influence. You trade Diggs and this is your plan? Pretty much nothing/JAGs. This lack of WR talent is going to make judgements on J Brady difficult. Is the dink and dunk style because Brady wants it, or is it because Brady is adapting a style that fits the personnel he has? It may also put me in a quandary towards the end of the season. What if we're fighting for playoff lives but with this dink and dunk style? Do you root for a skin of the teeth type entry into the playoffs as a huge underdog the rest of the way, or for a missing of the playoffs that would bring in a cleaning of the house? I don't want them thinking that going with a pathetic group of WRs is a good long term strategy.

Do you think if we don't make the playoffs, Pegula will clean house? Because, I kind of don't think he will, that Pegula gave the blessing on this reset.

Cook has really improved and if he continues in getting better at pass pro, a little better catch percentage, and has already improved ball security- he will be a top level RB. I think it will happen. Problem is Cook's stats are already top level and with another year at the same level Cook's market value will be more than what I believe the Bills will want to pay. I don't even think locking him up early will work, his stats are already too good. I think it's kind of unfortunate because I think Cook was on track to be in the discussion of the top 5 if the Bills could keep him. Brady seems to be able to unlock Cook's abilities, getting him into space and utilizing his speed.

Are the Bills ahead of the curve again? Those foolish teams with established guys like Tyreek/Waddle or G Wilson/K Allen, Chase/Higgins - that's so last year.

No Pegula holding Beane/McDermott responsible is very pertinent to any firings regardless of your criteria. That is the point. If Pegula was an active participant in choosing a reset, his expectations for the season would be lowered - and not in line with your belief that Allen's floor is the wildcard round.

McDermott? With this cast of misfit WRs? McDermott has a chance to punch above his weight here, show some coaching chops, but at little to no risk. This is sub-par talent and as is now a reset (I can't quite call it a rebuild because they didn't do the double dip at WR) Wouldn't Beane be at risk? It was Beane who moved Diggs. It was Beane who only took one WR. It was Beane who passed on getting a reasonable FA WR like say OBJ instead of retreads Hollins/MVS/Claypool. Normally I would say Beane might be on the hot sea but I think this situation was cleared with Pegula, and if so, clemency would be given for this year.

No, Keon was a second rounder. The Bills traded back more than once. The Bills also traded out of the first round and gave up the 5th year option, which seems to be something Carolina wanted for their WR.