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Everything posted by Chaos
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You need to name the names of the more deserving
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They are the first important players who are near the end of their careers who were part of the majority of the multi-year divisional championship run The Bills have been on. That seems to distinguish them from the drought era players.
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What will you do when the Bills win the Super Bowl?
Chaos replied to WotAGuy's topic in The Stadium Wall
Probably come to the realization that the realization of a 6 decade obsession has no actual impact on any meaningful aspect of my life. Then start worrying about how the Bills can use the upcoming draft to repeat. -
At the time, 13 seconds was an acute condition, like a bullet wound. It was painful and traumatic. However, expectations were for a full recovery. We now suffer from a chronic condition of having "reasons" every year for not getting past the divisional round. There is no actual known cure for this chronic condition. Some people either continue to have expectations for a better result next year, fueled more by hopes and prayers than expecations for important strategic, coaching or personnel changes. Others cope by having lowered expecations and satisifaction that "making the playoffs every year is pretty darn good, certainly better than the drought". Others are just bummed out. All of these responses to the situation are reasonable, there really is no "right way" for fans to feel about the situation.
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Lets support the new Staff and hope for the best.
Chaos replied to SoonerBillsFan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Just get in line and support. Stop your bellyaching. -
Cool Story: Jason Kelce T-shirt to benefit the Patricia Allen Fund
Chaos replied to TheFunPolice's topic in The Stadium Wall
Our future oline coach -
Since there is no rush to win, I think a good idea would be to have a couple of "raffles" each year, where the winner gets to call the plays for the game that week. This would give hundreds of thousands of people the chance live out their dream of coaching an NFL game. This seems much fairer than selfishly worrying about one guy winning a super bowl before he has reached the appropriate age.
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Calling it now: Bills are going to at least reach the AFCCG
Chaos replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall
We have proven they we are a top 8 team in the NFL. -
Gunner's 2024 Mock Draft - FINAL v3.0 NOW LIVE (p.13)
Chaos replied to GunnerBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
After watching Kincaid make catches look fairly routine, that others on the Bills routinely don't catch, I have become a huge believer that good hands is at the top of the list for what the Bills need. Maybe just fan frustration. But if he lived up to the "best hands in class" billing, I could live with other limitations. -
When Analytics/Philosophy blind coaches to Situational Awareness
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
The word "probably" is pretty critical in understanding my post. What we do know is that fully adjusted for the game pressure of the NFL Championship game, the Lions are not very good at converting 4th and 3. -
The one that did not have a fetish about making sure Josh Allen did not run. That seemed like the only meaningful difference between the two offenses.
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When Analytics/Philosophy blind coaches to Situational Awareness
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Maybe. But he does not seem to understand when to call timeouts, and when wasting a time out is likely to create a problem later on. -
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW – Reflections on the Conference Championship Games
Chaos replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall
Our you suggesting that McNabb is a Mahomes level QB? -
When Analytics/Philosophy blind coaches to Situational Awareness
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yes, there is a chance. -
No meaningful room for improvement in terms of actual productivity. Best is best. The entire rest of the team lags so far behind our QB play, its absurd to worry about QB play.
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I am a huge believer in making decisions based on analytics. But I don't thinnk football head coaches in general have demonstrated mathematical genius ( I am not saying I am). The 4th and 3 play call with a 14 point lead in the NFC championship game, I think is an example of not properly understanding the math. I will start with an analogy. Imagine a dice game, where the rules allow you to pick either of the following situations A) rolling 1-5 pays you even money B) rolling a 6 pays you 100-1. If I tell you you get to roll the die 50 times, the expected return for A is that you would roll 1 to 5 5/6 or 42 times $42 dollars (assuming a $1 bet each time and the expected return on B is that you would roll 6 eight times and get a return of $800. Any rational person would select B as there choice. While the numbers are extreme this is similar to the 'analytics' of going for it on fourth and 3 on the opponents 20 yard line. Over a large number of interations, the correct statistical decision is to go for it on fourth and 3. Now imagine if after your fifty rolls, you have collected you $800 based on your selection of B. You made the wise decision. However, lets say the rules of the game change (like in the second half of an NFC championship game). Now there is only 1 roll of the die. If you roll a 1-5 you get to keep your $800. If you roll a 6, your $800 grows to $900. A rational person would always select A in this scenario. However I feel as though Dan Campbell was confused by the excitement of winning with analytics over the course of a 17 game decision, and tried to apply a season long anaytic concept to a very small remaining set of plays. And he made a mistake. Not quite as extreme as my dice example. But a field goal from that spot is probably 90% plus successful (2.7 points) , and a conversion was probably 70% likely (4.9 points expected value, if we assume the conversion leads to a TD 100% of the time). The difference in expected points between 2.7 and 4.9 was not worth increasing the likelhood of zero from 10 to 30%.
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Allen is the most productive QB in the NFL. Full Stop. Perfection js not achievable. Full Stop. The least problematic position on the Bills the last five years had been QB. Just stop.
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