-
Posts
7,873 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Everything posted by Chaos
-
Revised Analysis. I think all the calculations and underlying data are correct now. Regarding the Giants ranking here is the explanation: New York Giants (Converged PageRank: 0.0511) Despite a 2-6 record, the New York Giants achieved a relatively high PageRank. This is primarily due to their victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, the highest-ranked team in the analysis. Since the Eagles only have 2 losses, a significant portion of their high PageRank value is transferred to the Giants. Contributions from defeated teams: | Defeated Team | Opponent PR (from analysis) | Opponent Losses (L) | Total Contribution (PR/L) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.0771 | 2 | 0.03855000 | | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.0482 | 3 | 0.01606667 | Calculation Summary: A. Sum of Contributions (Σ [PR/L]): 0.05461667 B. d * Sum (0.85 * A): 0.04642417 C. Base Rank: 0.00468750 Total PageRank (B + C): 0.05111167 (Rounds to 0.0511) Two high quality wins beats 5 low quality wins. While not an intuitive result, it is not as crazy as it seems. It suggest that Giants have demonstrated they might beat anyone in the league. While the Bills have only demontrated they can beat teams in the bottom 1/3. If the Bills beat the Chiefs, this weekend , i think that will cause a significant upward movement. If the Raven's win tonight, that would favorably impact the Bills ranking. iff t
-
Its not likely many people are familar with graph network analysis or page rank. But these are standard statisitical systems that are often applied to sports as ranking or predictive model. The base formula is standard and I have not altered it in any way. The results below are what are generated by the formulas. I have validate the specific math between the Eagle, Chiers, Bills and Ravens, because they do not seem intuitive. But based on this statistical model, they are accurate. Here is the math: The table is the results of this statistic applied to the 2025 NFL season so far. As a side note. The Chargers at -460 are a compelling, if boring value vs. the Titans this weekend. And the Bronco's seem tremendously underpriced as an outright underdog in a game they should be a significant favorite at with the Texans. Past is not prologue. But this statistic has a pretty good track record. With tweaks (which I have not done) this can be made to identify the winners accurately (outright winners, not against the spread) about 70% of the time. Link to corrected table : https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/262258-this-might-be-why-bills-fans-are-concerned-despite-the-bills-5-2-record-there-will-be-math/page/3/#comment-9820269 essentially the issue is we do not have a single win against a team that is not a bottom dweller, and lost to two mediocre teams.
-
All three of these things can be true at the same time: The Bills WR corp is a liability and is not competetive the other top teams vying for the Super Bowl Adding 1 WR at the trade deadline won't fundmentally change the problem in #1 Adding 1 WR at the trade deadline has the potentially to directionally move the needle in the direction of #1
-
trust the process
-
Beane the wizard isn’t a thing anymore is it.
-
Are the Bills completely undisciplined? Are the ref's cheating the Bill's? How is this possible.
-
Based on the various pressers, it seems McDermott consider's Brady and Babich more as interns that coordinators. Its a problem.
-
Hate to say this … but the Pats are effing good
Chaos replied to dave mcbride's topic in The Stadium Wall
The loss gave them hope and swagger. We blew a champion's opportunity to step on their throats and keep them in their place. -
Joe B (The Athletic) on passing game problems (with data)
Chaos replied to dave mcbride's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yesterday our OC said we don’t need to throw passes downfield to be dynamic. -
Hate to say this … but the Pats are effing good
Chaos replied to dave mcbride's topic in The Stadium Wall
Vrabel is a solid coach who never had the advantage of having an excellent QB. Hopefully he doesn't know how to capitalize on that situation. -
Dion Dawkins and A'Shawn Robinson Separated Postgame
Chaos replied to BillsFanForever19's topic in The Stadium Wall
I was not there. -
you seem to contracdict yourself.
-
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
His throws have looked odd to me all year. Like someone who is trying to change something. -
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Maybe the WR screens are more successful than I think. I feel like they don't add much of anything to the offense. real question. Is it only five times a game? If feels like it is called at least once on every single possession, but I don't have stats to back that up? -
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Do you think Josh looks off? If so, any theories? If not, thats ok. -
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don't care if his mechanics were bad on a rarely called WR screen pass. My concern is his mechanics are being compromised on other throws because of the emphasis on the quite common WR screen passes. I don't go to the practices. For all i know he never throws a WR screen in practice.
