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Everything posted by Chaos
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I think the niners also had another option, as a benefit of going first: They had third and four from the nine. They passed on third down, and kicked the field goal. The pass on third down was more likely to get a TD than a run on that down. However, if they decided they would run on third and fourth down in that situation, they might have gotten a first. Or they might have gotten the ball closer to the five. Turning the ball over that five, means that instead of stopping a Chiefs TD starting from the 25 (with the knowledge they need a TD), the defense has to prevent the field with KC knowing that if they go for it on fourth down, in their own end of the field they will almost certainly lose the game if they don't convert. So punting comes back on the table.
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If it was borderline impossible the Chiefs would never punt. it’s not borderline impossible. Even it it was, the niners were allowed to use all four downs to get a TD on the first possession if they possessed true knowledge that it would be impossible to stop Mahomes.
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Knowledge can be power. In this case, the knowledge was "If my defense, who has held the chiefs to 2 TDs in 10 Drives (20%) can hold the Chiefs to a field goal for one drive, my team gets first crack at sudden death, even I only get a FG on my first possession. Plus if I get a TD on the first possession, I have the chance to win outright with a stop on the second possession. I don't think Analytics is ever going to show an expected value of greater than 50% of scoring a TD starting at your own 25, in the situation last night. Only the emotional "OMG we held Mahomes to two TD's on 10 drives, but we will never stop him again, because he knows he has to go for it on fourth down".
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Thats the point. The teams have fairly even chances to win the new rules. The simple fact that there is a debate about recieving or kicking means the rules accomplished the goal. Chiefs would have failed to score a td on fourth and goal from the 4 yard line just as often as they would have scored. We know this because otherwise, the Chiefs would always go for 2 on extra points.
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If the score is tied after each team has possessed the ball, the next score wins and the game becomes sudden death. This is why one takes the ball first. If the niners deferred, and the chiefs scored a FG, then the niners scored a field, the chiefs only needed to get in field goal range to win the game. In the scenario fans would be writing threads "how can you concede the Chiefs first crack at sudden death" The failure of the niners was NOT scoring the TD on the first possesion. The problem was not recieving first.
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Its Pretty Obvious why the Chiefs win every year
Chaos replied to gonzo1105's topic in The Stadium Wall
During the normally useless in-game interviews Reid made this comment yesterday "we just need to adjust to ebbs and flows of the game". He is very good at that. -
Until Allen spends his offseason learning to play defense, punt and kick field goals, instead of golfing, all Bills losses are obviously his fault.
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Bills are among the top most successful regular season teams. The are the most disappointing playoff performers. There is no real room for a bigger gap. The Joe Flacco Ravens, aside from one Super Bowl, actually were a failure as far as winning championships. But the Bills have failed against the Texans, Bengals and Chiefs, so your point really isn't accurate.
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Tiger Woods was "far better than" Jack Nicklaus until he ended up falling well short of Nicklaus' career majors wins record. Mahomes may be on a hypothetical track to a better career. But it is way too pre-mature to say his career equals Brady's.
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I think there may be a difference between "aggressiveness" and "imposing your will"/"playing your game". I am not sure there is specifically a problem with play calling aggressiveness. But it seems like in the playoff games we lost to the Chiefs and Bengals, and Texans, the Bills are typically responding to the other teams rather than dictating the pace of place. And we seem to keep ending up one possession behind with that strategy. I don't if that is because the Bengals , Chiefs and Texans had better talent than the Bills or if this is what the Bills are consiously trying to do.
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I am hopeful this thread avoids discussions of specific coaching or players. Here are some facts that are not in dispute: The Bills have had more regular season success than virtually any other NFL team in the last 5 years. The Bills have not translated the regular season succes into deep playoff runs Here is a commonly held opinions: Playoff football is different than regular season football. (I am personally on the fence on whether or not this is true) For purposes of this thread discussion I would like to stipulate that Playoff Football IS different than regular season football. Here is the question: Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes? Alternatively, its fine to respond "flawed premise, the gap between playoff success and regular season success is because the Bills are less talented, or unluckier than the teams that win the Super Bowl"
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Off-Season Hot Take: Mid Season Struggles And The #1 Seed
Chaos replied to Bills!Win!'s topic in The Stadium Wall
There is some truth in this. But there is a bigger problem with the premise of this thread. The concept that you can only get to the Super Bowl if you are the #1 seed is truly not a sustainable strategy. Certainly the strategy the Chiefs relied on this year. -
NFL’s “Rooney Rule” being challenged in court.
Chaos replied to BuffaloBill's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Its never been clear to me what the baseline expecation of what coaching staffs should "look like" America - if "equity" 50% women head coaches, with a commensurate number of Asian and Hispanic coaches? NFL player base. Being an NFL player does not obviously make for a better NFL coach. People who coach football - ie the universe of high school, college and NFL coaches who make educational and career decisions to focus on coaching rather than playing or something else (think Sean McDermott, MIke Tomlin among many others in this group) Separately is it assumed that everyone regardless of race/color/creed/gender ethinticy is exactly equally likely to have the same coaching capabilities? Clearly the NFL does not believe this when it comes to players. If it is not true for players why would it be true for coaches? -
What are your feelings on James Cook RB1
Chaos replied to BillMafia716ix's topic in The Stadium Wall
I as certain as can be that it rounds to zero. Bills would have won 11 games with Singletary. Hell, the Texans won 11 games with him. -
What are your feelings on James Cook RB1
Chaos replied to BillMafia716ix's topic in The Stadium Wall
How many wins more did the bills have in 2023 with Cook, then they would have had with Singletary. if the number is zero, then Cook and Singletary are identical -
What are your feelings on James Cook RB1
Chaos replied to BillMafia716ix's topic in The Stadium Wall
By above average, do you mean an RB1 who helps the Bills win more games than the would win with an average RB1?