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Everything posted by Chaos
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The Invisible Third of the Game: Special Teams
Chaos replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
A replacement gunner only needs to be adequate, not "better", if the change upgrades the offense in a meaningful way. -
Lamar mania will be over by the end of the 2020 season, with or without Roman.
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a team that has the same head coach for a decade, only two gms in more than a decade becomes unstable if they lose an OC who is on about his fourth OC tour of duty. Weird. By that definition the Steelers became unstable when Dick Labeau was released.
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The Ravens aren't stable?
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BH13's 2019 QB Efficiency Ratings
Chaos replied to BuffaloHokie13's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Stipulate that for arguments stake. Why does that mean this new stat is better? -
BH13's 2019 QB Efficiency Ratings
Chaos replied to BuffaloHokie13's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Winston being ranked dramatically higher than Jimmy G. makes me question why this would be superior to simply looking at passer rating. -
BH13's 2019 QB Efficiency Ratings
Chaos replied to BuffaloHokie13's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Without supplying the formula its hard to validate whether or not it is any more logical than simply using passer rating. But It looks like you had fun doing it. Personally, I think the gap in QB evaluation is largely around situational analysis and offensive style . For example: QB 1 throws 4 yd completion 4 yd completion 4 yard completion. 12 yards and a first down = Passer Rating = 79 QB 2 throws ball incomplete, throws incomplete, throws 12 yard completion. 12 yards and a first down = Passer rating = 46 QB 3 throws ball incomplete, throws incomplete, throws 35 yard completion. 35 yards and a first down = passer rating = 79 QB 4 throw ball 30 yards, throws ball 30 yards, throws interception 2 first downs and a turnover, passer rating = passer rating = 70 QB 1 is what I would call "Brady Style" QB2 is "Josh Style" nobody is really QB 3. QB4 is "Winston Style". In terms of results, QB1 QB2 and QB3 should all lead to plenty of scoring drives. Its hard to say QB 4 is clearly better than QB 2. I have my own theory that the best measure may be "points per drive start vs expected points per drive start". QB A starts on own 20 and leads the team to a field goal. QB B starts on the opponents 10 and leads the team to a TD. Which QB did a more effective job leading the offense? Statistically drives starting on your own 20 net 0.4 points on average. So field goal in that situation is generate 2.6 points above expected. Drives starting from the opponents 10 statistically generate 4.5 points per drive. So a TD generates 2.5 above expected results. Both drives above average and pretty similar in results. If someone tracked every drive you would have a pretty solid measure of offensive success compared to expected success. You could also take it one step further and measure the offensives result, not just by points scored or not, but expected points resulting from field position for the opponent . Also it should be noted that "Expected Results" is something that probably needs to be more dynamic than league average. Not every schedule offers similarly tough Defenses to play against. -
Singletary has had a great year for a third round RB. But translating from an 6 to 8 carry change of pace back to a feature back has not really translated to great results yet. I am not sure his ceiling very much higher.
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Clearly the first step the Browns need to take, is to visit Two Bills Drive and find out what a random bunch of Bills fans think they should do. Once they get that insight, things should flow smoothly from there.
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For What Reason Will You Miss Work Saturday
Chaos replied to thronethinker's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I was just joking. You seem sensitive. Also I apologize if you were offended. -
For What Reason Will You Miss Work Saturday
Chaos replied to thronethinker's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Everyone knows America's best and brighest are fertilizer guys with an MBA who work an occasional weekend. Thanks for letting us know you are an elite. You will be accorded all the proper respect your position warrants. -
Brett Kollerman: Patroits Defense has been figured out
Chaos replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The Pats have always had a high scoring offense. Typically put teams in a hole early, which is a huge advantage to the defense. Great teams, great units, great players rise to the occasion. The pats defense failed. That was also a fail. -
Brett Kollerman: Patroits Defense has been figured out
Chaos replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think letting the dolphins score a TD on the final drive allows reasonable observers to grade the defensive effort for the Pats a solid F. -
Buddy and Whaley were a pair of rodeo clowns.
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Brett Kollerman: Patroits Defense has been figured out
Chaos replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
What was the Pats best defensive performance against a top offense? -
Brett Kollerman: Patroits Defense has been figured out
Chaos replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Ultimately I consider both defenses untested. Based on the Bills vs. Eagles and Ravens and Pats vs. Ravens, I don't see either defense really stopping teams like the niners/saints/chiefs/ravens/seahawks. If the Bills throttle the Texans, then I will consider them tested and passing the test, and consequently revise my "untested" opinion. -
Brett Kollerman: Patroits Defense has been figured out
Chaos replied to Protocal69's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The Pats and Bills both benefited from playing historically weak schedules. Both teams defense's were good against winning teams. Neither teams defense truly excelled against winning teams.