Chaos

The deeper into the draft we go, any simulations/mocks/projections/guesses become more and more just guesses. I have had reasonable success in simulating the first three rounds. I have given some analysis explaining each of those picks. For this round I am going to give my projected Bills board for the next 65 picks with an explanation of the methodology I have been using. My official guess is "the highest ranked player on the board available when the Bills pick at 137". However player availability and board rank are independent variables, and based on my estimate of who will be available, I expect the player will come from among this smaller list: DT Karl Brooks DT Moro Ojomo WR Charlie Jones DT Cameron Young .Here is a link to a google sheet, showing the whole list of 65 in this format. In rounds 1 and 2 I did a very detailed analysis of likely availabilty player by player. In this round, I grouped the players into tiers (because I got lazy) for evaluating likely availability. In all rounds I calculated a metric I call 2023 impact potential, and then calculate the RANK of this metric. So in this round, the max rank was 65, because I evaluated 65 players. If a player scored at the top of the list for each of my values rolling into "2023 impact potential" they would have scored 65. Of the remaining players 2 guys jump off the page as having the greatest potential to have impact on 2023, D. Jones, and Kelee Ringo. This seems to pass any eye test as logical as well. What I think is a bit different about my 2023 Impact potential calculation is that it completely disregards development potential and the future. The top teams have no interest in "developing" talent in my estimation. The Bills are one of the top teams that as moved past that point. For example, Someone will draft Andrew Vorhees in this draft, maybe in the fourth round. Due to his ACL injury, I rank him as zero potential to impact 2023, and as such he is at the bottom of my list of these 65 players. D. Jones could be a total bust. He also could be could be the answer to the Spencer Brown problem at RT, the Bills current weakest link on offense. I personally would be rolling the dice and trying to trade with the bears to get him. But I learned from someone yesterday, Beane is boycotting the Big Ten. So probably not likely. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs66Nk1eJ9ybB-_ZV0VdEovmj5EffjrjH4z3hYXu_lM/edit?usp=sharing

https://collegefootballnews.com/nfl-draft/dorian-williams-tulane-2023-nfl-draft-profile

Steeler's may have just gotten the steal of the draft. He is one of one physcially among pass catchers.

Its mainly because statistically those later picks don't amount to much. There are of course the obvious antecdotes of success from those picks and even a HOF QB who was an UDFA. But those are exceptions not the rule. Jones level of production in college to NFL success. I don't think he could exceed at the level without having a real work ethic.

I don't many others on TBD had Dorian Williams in focus at all for the third.

Honestly, I would spend be trying to trade back in to take Dawand Jones. Our last two picks and a fourth from next year should be more than enough to get it done.

Williams is one of the best coverage linebackers in the class, boasting a 6-foot-8 wingspan and 4.49 speed

Missed on this one. Expected Jones or Herbig to go ahead of Willams. But not a complete debacle.

Josh Richardson, influencer.

My guy Dawand Jones is left.

Hopefull to take Tyler Spears. PFF is project Ringo or Jones to the Cowboys.

Rams took Avila, If they take Dawand Jones now, that is a lot of football player.

I think they may take Dorian Williams or Overshown.

I think he is a safety.

Lets good with the Killer D's of TEs, Dawson, Dalton and Darnell. Also available in the D category: Dawand Jones.

Trent Simpson Dawand Jones Nick Herbig Dorian Williams Daylan Henly Tre Tomlinson Jordan Battle DeMarivion Overshown Cory Trice Henry Too Too

And Josh Allen played against him when?

Started out with forfieting #1. So its clearly a terrible draft.

Trent Simpson Dawand Jones Nick Herbig Dorian Williams Daylan Henly Tre Tomlinson Jordan Battle DeMarivion Overshown Cory Trice Henry Too Too Another LB before Simpson.

Which starting white CBs are you thinking of. The NFL does not currently have any.

Terrible draft for the Dolphins

Riley Moss is a stud. He has a chance to be the first starting white CB in many many years.

This is why I would like to trade up. These guys are not perennial all-pros, but a chunk are likely to be gone by 91. I think the fall off after this list is pretty steep.

Stunned if he goes before Dawand Jones. This looks about right for the next several picks

Anyone willing to package next years fourth with 91 to move up to get Simpson?