Chaos

The combos shown in yellow are where the QB started before the coach. The ones in orange are where the QB and Coach started same season (far more common than I would have guessed). Its fairly clear that new head coaches with established franchise QBs have IN THE PAST won more super bowls than teams sticking with a coach for many years, one the QB is place.

This was the most highly anticipated Bills season in a generation. Expectations were high. Having three lossess to 2 rookie and 1 second year head coach, at least in part due to poor coaching decisions, is clearly the biggest disappointment so far. 0-2 in the division is a nightmare. Nothing over the course of the last two years suggests that game time coaching blunders will all of sudden stop. And now the head coach is signalling he will be finger pointing to deflect blame (McDermott's passive agressive comments about Allen after the Vikings loss, his passive agressive comments about Tre White). The way the AFC is split between good and bad teams, it is possible an 11-6 team misses the playoffs. 10-7 almost certainly misses in the AFC. The Bills have four divisional games remaining: 2 against the patriots who we rarely sweep, 2 against teams who already beat us this season. All of these teams are hungry and in the playoff hunt. Going two and two out of these four is the most likely scenario. This means we can't lose any of our other four games. Our other four games are against the Browns, Lions, Bears and Bengals. Browns are a terrible matchup for the Bills. The Bengals are defending AFC champions who are dangerous on any given Sunday. A loss tomorrow to the Browns will be devastating. As they say D-Day was a must win, this is just a football game. But if the Bills lose tomorrow, the path to a championship becomes very narrow. If the Bills win tomorrow, it will still be a slog to get home. There is certainly hope but the team is a true inflection point over the next 6 days. Two wins will help alot.

It seems most people have this vision of a slow grind of building a team and then advancing step by step through the years. In real life, it is more like catching lightning in a bottle. In the NFL the lightning is getting the right Starting QB / HC combo. During the super bowl era, this is a list of how long each Starting QB/HC combo was together before winning their first champhionship together. A couple of notes, Lombardi/Starr won NFL championships together before the Super Bowl era. Stram/Dawson's first championship together was an AFL championship Next, a review of this list makes a strong case that Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach in NFL history. The mean average of time together before winning the first championship in the super bowl era is 2.5 Years. Only once were a coach and starting QB together for more than four years before winning their first championship together. (Ken Stabler/ John Madden in 1976). In terms of winning a championship, the Bills are in nearly uncharted waters vs history. Season QB-Coach Combo First Championship Together 1966 Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi Year 2 1967 Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi (2) Year 2 1968 Joe Namath*MVP-Weeb Ewbank Year 3 1969 Len Dawson*MVP-Hank Stram Year 1 1970 Johnny Unitas*-Don McCafferty Year 8 1971 Roger Staubach*MVP-Tom Landry Year 2 1972 Bob Griese*-Don Shula Year 3 1973 Bob Griese*-Don Shula (2) Year 3 1974 Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll Year 4 1975 Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll (2) Year 4 1976 Ken Stabler*-John Madden Year 6 1977 Roger Staubach*-Tom Landry (2) Year 2 1978 Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (3) Year 4 1979 Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (4) Year 4 1980 Jim PlunkettMVP-Tom Flores Year 1 1981 Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh Year 3 1982 Joe Theismann-Joe Gibbs Year 2 1983 Jim Plunkett-Tom Flores (2) Year 1 1984 Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh (2) Year 3 1985 Jim McMahon-Mike Ditka Year 4 1986 Phil SimmsMVP-Bill Parcells Year 3 1987 Doug WilliamsMVP-Joe Gibbs (2) Year 2 1988 Joe Montana*-Bill Walsh (3) Year 3 1989 Joe Montana*MVP-George Seifert Year 1 1990 Jeff Hostetler-Bill Parcells (2) Year 1 1991 Mark RypienMVP-Joe Gibbs (3) Year 4 1992 Troy Aikman*MVP-Jimmy Johnson Year 3 1993 Troy Aikman*-Jimmy Johnson (2) Year 3 1994 Steve Young*MVP-George Seifert (2) Year 3 1995 Troy Aikman*-Barry Switzer Year 2 1996 Brett Favre*-Mike Holmgren Year 3 1997 John Elway*-Mike Shanahan Year 3 1998 John Elway*MVP-Mike Shanahan (2) Year 3 1999 Kurt Warner*MVP-Dick Vermeil Year 2 2000 Trent Dilfer-Brian Billick Year 1 2001 Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick Year 2 2002 Brad Johnson-Jon Gruden Year 1 2003 Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (2) Year 2 2004 Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (3) Year 2 2005 Ben Roethlisberger-Bill Cowher Year 2 2006 Peyton Manning*MVP-Tony Dungy Year 4 2007 Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin Year 3 2008 Ben Roethlisberger-Mike Tomlin Year 2 2009 Drew BreesMVP-Sean Payton Year 3 2010 Aaron RodgersMVP-Mike McCarthy Year 3 2011 Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin (2) Year 3 2012 Joe FlaccoMVP-John Harbaugh Year 4 2013 Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll Year 2 2014 Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (4) Year 2 2015 Peyton Manning*-Gary Kubiak Year 1 2016 Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (5) Year 2 2017 Nick FolesMVP-Doug Pederson Year 1 2018 Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (6) Year 2 2019 Patrick MahomesMVP-Andy Reid Year 2 2020 Tom BradyMVP-Bruce Arians Year 2 2021 Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay Year 1

Its not a point. The original post is just facts.

He has had a good impact on the franchise. My concern is that he is the Kirk Cousins of coaches. Better than obvious replacements, but not likely to win a championship.

I think its funny that people thumbs down or puke on the first post in the thread which expresses no opinions and simply lists out a series of facts. A lot of people don't like facts. In his current tenure Andy Reid got his first super bowl appearance quite early. Chiefs fans did not wait long.

This could be right. On the other hand a good percentage of the last several super bowls have been coaches new to their teams (McVay, Reid, Shanahan, Taylor). I do not think he ever did. Which is why I gave Mcdermott the plus sign designation in Marvin Lewis + . Norv Turner on the Chargers might be a better comp.

He seems on pass to be Marvin Lewis +

Just praising the Bills fans for their patience.

Only five NFL HC's have been with their current NFL teams longer than Sean McDermott. Andy Ried, Bill Bellichek, Pete Carrol, John Harbaugh Mike Tomlin All have Super Bowl wins. And multiple appearances. Head coaches with shorter tenures and super bowl appearances include Sean McVay (hired same year as McDermott) Kyle Shanahan (hired same year as McDermott) Zac Taylor As an aside here are coaches with wins against Sean McDermott's AFC East Third Place team in 2022 Mike McDaniel (rookie) Kevin O'Connell (rookie) Robert Saleh (second year) Bills fans are the most patient. In almost every other NFL fanbase Mr. McDermott would be "on the hot seat"

McD is ignoring the critical advise from Tropic Thunder. Never go full ######. This confirms that McD does not actually see himself as accountable for the Bills stumbles. He really is a passive agressive finger pointing kind of guy.

I agree. You don't understand.

Here is why people are disappointed to some degree with McDermott: Current QBs with Super Bowl Appearances in NO PARTICULAR ORDER 1)Tom Brady 2)Aaron Rodgers 3)Patrick Mahomes 4)Matthew Stafford 5)Joe Burrows 6)Jimmy G. 7)Matt Ryan 8)Russell Wilson QBs without super bowl appearances IN ORDER OF TALENT LEVEL 1) Josh Allen 2) Everyone else McDermott has done less with more at the QB position than any other current NFL coach. When you drill down through all the pros and cons for Coach McDermott it boils down to this. Expectations are high. People expect him to deliver to these high expectations and so far he has not.

Seems like the best thing to do is to fire the guys who win one, since the never repeat. We are blessed to have a guy who has never won one. Did I get this right?

Yes because this is soccer and every score counts as 1. 13 points in meaningfully different than 10 points. Its just stupid to argue otherwise.

Will be Beane be placed on one of the least profitable teams, like Polian was, for this exercise. Beane has a level playing field. Polian was a big financial disadvantage

Clearly Allen and Dorsey have a close relationship. I am starting to wonder if Allen issues don't come in two flavors of Dorsey problems. One, Dorsey not be up to the task of being an NFL OC, and two Allen not having full time access to Ken Dorsey as QB Coach.

and burn five seconds, and throw it away, or gain the yards needed to take a knee. rinse repeat. Then take the safety if needed on fourth down.

The manner of losing is pretty unique The bills have more famous late game losing failures than the rest of the NFL combined

It was not hindsight. It was a blunder to risk the turnover there. I said it before the play in shoutbox. Total coaching blunder

That play should have been run out of the shot gun. Allen can run for space, or throw it away and take a few seconds off the clock. two more times to take time off the clock, then take the safety.

Its coaching purgatory. He is better than half of the NFL Head Coaches. Just like Derek Carr has been better than than half of the QBs in the NFL most of his career.

The fact that this thread can be legitimately resurrected every couple of weeks is troubling. McDermott is a choker. And the entire team is starting to reflect its head coach.

Are you wishfully thinking that Allen is injured, and the Bill's notoriusly conservative medical staff has lost its mind?

you seem to miss the point. Allen at 80% is also better than Keenum at 100%. Injury risk is a binary decision. He either is at higher risk, or he is not. If it is higher risk, you don't put him in to sub.