Chaos

Hypothetically if we changed coaches, and made the playoffs the next year, would you keep that new coach for 8 seasons, as long as we made the playoffs?

There is a more important open question. Vrable did pretty well with Ryan Tannehill, who was the best QB he got to coach. Maye might not have to be as good as Allen. He might only have to be meaningfully better than Tannehill to have an impact. Its hard based on anything we have seen from Maye to think he wont be better than Tannehill. The big unknown, is Vrabel the kind of coach that can capitalize on that.

You really seem to completely missing the point. The point is that changing coachesis no less likely to result in a Super Bowl appearance, than becoming the singularity of the longest lasting duo without an appearance suddenly making an appearance. From the perspective of winning a conference championship there is no incremental risk involved with changing coaches, notwithstanding the pearl clutching by some

Daboll had a lot of coaching experience including stints as an offensive coordinator before joining for the Bills. I am not sure there are formal rules for “coaching tree” but I don’t think Daboll himself would credit McDermott as his biggest influence.

10 examples of 59 super bowls is more than an ancedote. Going forward with the same QB/HC combo is actually a hope to generate the unique anecdote " the only duo to play together or more than 140 games before winning a conference championship" your list is a flawed analyis. There are a total of 10 first or second year (Rookie) Head Coaches (5) that made it to the super bowl. Don McCafferty (Baltimore Colts, Won Super Bowl V Red Miller (Denver Broncos, Lost Super Bowl XII George Seifert (San Francisco 49ers, Won Super Bowl XXIV Bill Callahan (Oakland Raiders, Lost Super Bowl XXXVII Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis Colts, Lost Super Bowl XLIV Second-Year Head Coaches (5) Ray Malavasi (Los Angeles Rams, Lost Super Bowl XIV Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers, Won Super Bowl XLIII Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco 49ers, Lost Super Bowl XLVII Doug Pederson (Philadelphia Eagles, Won Super Bowl LII Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams, Lost Super Bowl LIII If your suggesting "its easier for a coach to take a team that has been losing consistently to the super bowl", I will have to disagree.

Its a false choice to say changing coaches is "Blowing it up" or retaining the head coach.. There have been 10 different coaches who made it to the Super Bowl in their first or second season. The change in head coach seem to be the "change" needed in those cases. This era may have ended with the arrival of the Vrabel/Maye duo. Early returns as a Bills fan are not promising. But they are early.

The rub is a disagreement on what "winning" is. Lets say Reid retires after this season. The expectation for the next coach will be that winning means winning super bowls, as long as Mahomes is QB. Many Bills fans, who don't post on fan forums think the bar for "winning" with Josh Allen on the team is at least an appearance in the Super Bowl. If you look at the chart of the top 10, all but one of those combos won more than they lost. None are really remembered as an era of great success.

Mahomes is not better than Brady. Peyton Manning, Big Ben, got past him multiple times. Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco even got by them. Joe Burrows and the Bengals got by Mahomes. So did the Patriots.

All existing evidence supports your analysis, as far as I can tell.

Technically you are 100% correct. But from the perspective a fan forum, there are plenty of guys, who will still tell you you need to trust the process and be patient. And historically, ownerships do tend to be responsive to their customers.

Its really not. If the goal is a championship, or even just getting to the Super Bowl something needs to change, or you are hoping for an unprecedented result essentially a lighing strike. All the coaches and QBs in that list were good. However, none of those coaches had a QB in the running for to be the league MVP year after year. And a change does not mean getting rid of McDermott. While its seems unthinkable, there are a couple of teams who might be poised to get to the Super Bowl immediately (maybe the lions or rams, who could trade a QB who fits McDermott's preference for a game manager style QB, and a boat load of picks to use to assemble something resembling a Defensive Guru, defense.

this is an interesting related stat. There are a total of 10 first or second year (Rookie) Head Coaches (5) that made it to the super bowl. Don McCafferty (Baltimore Colts, Won Super Bowl V Red Miller (Denver Broncos, Lost Super Bowl XII George Seifert (San Francisco 49ers, Won Super Bowl XXIV Bill Callahan (Oakland Raiders, Lost Super Bowl XXXVII Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis Colts, Lost Super Bowl XLIV Second-Year Head Coaches (5) Ray Malavasi (Los Angeles Rams, Lost Super Bowl XIV Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers, Won Super Bowl XLIII Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco 49ers, Lost Super Bowl XLVII Doug Pederson (Philadelphia Eagles, Won Super Bowl LII Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams, Lost Super Bowl LIII

I think Madden/Stabler did in the 70's I meant to say it would be "good to include in the original post". Then i updated the post. Two bads.

Yes, that would be include in the original post 😀 Pats won twice, Bengals went once.

Theory 1: every NFL management team in the Super Bowl has pulled the plug early on a coach or QB and only the Bills are doing it correctly. Theory 2: we are well past the conventional time for making a change in one of these roles. NFL's Longest Lasting Coach-Quarterback Duos to Never Reach a Super Bowl

Personality wise the Bills now fully reflect their head coach. They are the DMV of the NFL. Its all about being part of a predictable process. No fun. No fire. Just doing a job, knowing the customers have no where else to go.

Bolded the key.

our four wins are against teams with a combined 3-21 record. if we could play the Jets every week we would be fine.

defense collapsed for the last 6 and 1/2 minutes off the game.

Because they are a professional football team that expects to execute. They are not afraid of their own shadows.

The Allen-McDermott divorce should have happened a couple of years back. It is not a good combination.

we have those two ped cheater guys coming back soon.

defense gave up 335 yards and 21 points in the first half. they dug the hole.

we have more than one problem.