Chaos

I concur Hairston looked good. Its hard to really measure a defense in total against an Andy Dalton led panthers team. I won't dismiss it out of hand. But I am not sure it is compelling evidence of a turn around. Note: The Pats are 6-2, with losses to the Raiders and Steelers. The only team they beat with a winning record is the Bills. And its hard to say the Bills lost to a really good team, because they have one quality win, against the Bills. Its a bit circular. Patriots have some interesting elements. Their losses were early, and beating the Bills seems to have instilled some swagger in them. But at this point the remain the the 13th pick in the betting odds to win it all, which is pretty much middle of the pack.

If we stipulate the Bills have an elite offense. How bad do you consider the defense losing to teams like the Pat's and Falcon's who together have no wins over top contenders and struggling for much of games against true bottom dwellers like the Dolphin's and Saints?

I have back-tested the PageRank model for NFL seasons on both a retrospective and prospective basis. It demonstrates validity as a prospective model, comparable to ELO models. (Of course the retrorespective results are better) There are inflection points that indicate outcomes as close to certain as one encounters in sports. This week, two such opportunities exist: the Rams over the Saints, and the Chargers over the Titans. However, the oddsmakers offer only -1100 odds on the former, which does not represent a value opportunity. The latter, at -500, constitutes a genuine value bet, albeit an unexciting one. So far its 1 for 1, this week with the Ravens over the Dolphins. Actually, the following games do not have a large enough difference in page rank, to actually be expected to have any predictive value.

All stats are incomplete until the last whistle at the Super Bowl.

best kept secret since the Manhattan project.

I did not watch the Dolphins/Falcons game. What happened there?

250 years later, they still don't realize they lost the battle to own the language.

Revised Analysis. I think all the calculations and underlying data are correct now. Regarding the Giants ranking here is the explanation: New York Giants (Converged PageRank: 0.0511) Despite a 2-6 record, the New York Giants achieved a relatively high PageRank. This is primarily due to their victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, the highest-ranked team in the analysis. Since the Eagles only have 2 losses, a significant portion of their high PageRank value is transferred to the Giants. Contributions from defeated teams: | Defeated Team | Opponent PR (from analysis) | Opponent Losses (L) | Total Contribution (PR/L) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.0771 | 2 | 0.03855000 | | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.0482 | 3 | 0.01606667 | Calculation Summary: A. Sum of Contributions (Σ [PR/L]): 0.05461667 B. d * Sum (0.85 * A): 0.04642417 C. Base Rank: 0.00468750 Total PageRank (B + C): 0.05111167 (Rounds to 0.0511) Two high quality wins beats 5 low quality wins. While not an intuitive result, it is not as crazy as it seems. It suggest that Giants have demonstrated they might beat anyone in the league. While the Bills have only demontrated they can beat teams in the bottom 1/3. If the Bills beat the Chiefs, this weekend , i think that will cause a significant upward movement. If the Raven's win tonight, that would favorably impact the Bills ranking. iff t

this undermines the entire analysis. good catch. I am completely re-reviewing

That is most likely a mistake.

Week one, the Bills Ravens and Chiefs were universally considered the top three teams in the AFC. Then the games started, and here we are. He clearly did not account for the give in the hay bale. If he had been on something solid, would have made it.

who are you talking too?

Its not likely many people are familar with graph network analysis or page rank. But these are standard statisitical systems that are often applied to sports as ranking or predictive model. The base formula is standard and I have not altered it in any way. The results below are what are generated by the formulas. I have validate the specific math between the Eagle, Chiers, Bills and Ravens, because they do not seem intuitive. But based on this statistical model, they are accurate. Here is the math: The table is the results of this statistic applied to the 2025 NFL season so far. As a side note. The Chargers at -460 are a compelling, if boring value vs. the Titans this weekend. And the Bronco's seem tremendously underpriced as an outright underdog in a game they should be a significant favorite at with the Texans. Past is not prologue. But this statistic has a pretty good track record. With tweaks (which I have not done) this can be made to identify the winners accurately (outright winners, not against the spread) about 70% of the time. Link to corrected table : https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/262258-this-might-be-why-bills-fans-are-concerned-despite-the-bills-5-2-record-there-will-be-math/page/3/#comment-9820269 essentially the issue is we do not have a single win against a team that is not a bottom dweller, and lost to two mediocre teams.

All three of these things can be true at the same time: The Bills WR corp is a liability and is not competetive the other top teams vying for the Super Bowl Adding 1 WR at the trade deadline won't fundmentally change the problem in #1 Adding 1 WR at the trade deadline has the potentially to directionally move the needle in the direction of #1

trust the process

Beane the wizard isn’t a thing anymore is it.

Are the Bills completely undisciplined? Are the ref's cheating the Bill's? How is this possible.

Based on the various pressers, it seems McDermott consider's Brady and Babich more as interns that coordinators. Its a problem.

The loss gave them hope and swagger. We blew a champion's opportunity to step on their throats and keep them in their place.

I was just adding to your observation

You can’t make clutch plays when the he coaches don’t have to he right plays called in the clutch situations

The only things this coaching staff needs are o get to the Super Bowl is to have a QB Playing at an MVP level, the best offensive personnel in the league., and the best personnel in the league for their peculiar style of defense. It’s just three pieces. Not sure why Beane can’t deliver.

Yesterday our OC said we don’t need to throw passes downfield to be dynamic.

Vrabel is a solid coach who never had the advantage of having an excellent QB. Hopefully he doesn't know how to capitalize on that situation.

I was not there.