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Everything posted by Chaos
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Its not likely many people are familar with graph network analysis or page rank. But these are standard statisitical systems that are often applied to sports as ranking or predictive model. The base formula is standard and I have not altered it in any way. The results below are what are generated by the formulas. I have validate the specific math between the Eagle, Chiers, Bills and Ravens, because they do not seem intuitive. But based on this statistical model, they are accurate. Here is the math: The table is the results of this statistic applied to the 2025 NFL season so far. As a side note. The Chargers at -460 are a compelling, if boring value vs. the Titans this weekend. And the Bronco's seem tremendously underpriced as an outright underdog in a game they should be a significant favorite at with the Texans. Past is not prologue. But this statistic has a pretty good track record. With tweaks (which I have not done) this can be made to identify the winners accurately (outright winners, not against the spread) about 70% of the time. Link to corrected table : https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/262258-this-might-be-why-bills-fans-are-concerned-despite-the-bills-5-2-record-there-will-be-math/page/3/#comment-9820269 essentially the issue is we do not have a single win against a team that is not a bottom dweller, and lost to two mediocre teams.
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All three of these things can be true at the same time: The Bills WR corp is a liability and is not competetive the other top teams vying for the Super Bowl Adding 1 WR at the trade deadline won't fundmentally change the problem in #1 Adding 1 WR at the trade deadline has the potentially to directionally move the needle in the direction of #1
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trust the process
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Beane the wizard isn’t a thing anymore is it.
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Are the Bills completely undisciplined? Are the ref's cheating the Bill's? How is this possible.
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Based on the various pressers, it seems McDermott consider's Brady and Babich more as interns that coordinators. Its a problem.
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Hate to say this … but the Pats are effing good
Chaos replied to dave mcbride's topic in The Stadium Wall
The loss gave them hope and swagger. We blew a champion's opportunity to step on their throats and keep them in their place. -
Joe B (The Athletic) on passing game problems (with data)
Chaos replied to dave mcbride's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yesterday our OC said we don’t need to throw passes downfield to be dynamic. -
Hate to say this … but the Pats are effing good
Chaos replied to dave mcbride's topic in The Stadium Wall
Vrabel is a solid coach who never had the advantage of having an excellent QB. Hopefully he doesn't know how to capitalize on that situation. -
Dion Dawkins and A'Shawn Robinson Separated Postgame
Chaos replied to BillsFanForever19's topic in The Stadium Wall
I was not there. -
you seem to contracdict yourself.
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Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
His throws have looked odd to me all year. Like someone who is trying to change something. -
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Maybe the WR screens are more successful than I think. I feel like they don't add much of anything to the offense. real question. Is it only five times a game? If feels like it is called at least once on every single possession, but I don't have stats to back that up? -
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Do you think Josh looks off? If so, any theories? If not, thats ok. -
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don't care if his mechanics were bad on a rarely called WR screen pass. My concern is his mechanics are being compromised on other throws because of the emphasis on the quite common WR screen passes. I don't go to the practices. For all i know he never throws a WR screen in practice. -
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
I am not sure any baseball manager would have told Roger Clemens - we need to introduce a submarine throwing motion into 25% of your pitches. I think this is the main point I am trying to make. I am concerned it is disruptive to the rest of his game, which is why so many think "Josh looks off". And the stats are lower than in the past. real question. Do other teams run as many behind the LOS WR screens as the Bills have been? -
Some observations and questions regarding the Bills passing game.
Chaos replied to Chaos's topic in The Stadium Wall
Completing the pass does not mean he does not look awkward throwing it. The point being that making this throw such a big part of his game, is disrupting other parts of the game leading to so many people think "Josh looks off".
