Chaos

Ultimately, I like football players who are good at football. This strikes me in some ways as more important that measurables. Having said that, there is a subject, I have not seen discussed otherwise on TBD, the importantance (or lack there of) of matching the NFL prototype. Bill Parcells and the Patriots post Parcells were practically slaves to chosing players who fit the prototype for weight, height and speed. They were were more interested in hitting the prototype, than exceeding it. The didn't want guards who were 6 8, or Tight Ends who were 6'1, regardless of skill levels. I think this is worth an entire thread, but not going to start that now. As it relates to the Tight Ends, Musgrave hits on all three prototypes, Height, Weight and Speed. Kindcaid and Mayer both are below the prototype on speed, and below the prototype on weight. Curious if this changes anyones mind about Musgrave vs Kincaid and Mayer.

QBs don't matter much. More or less followed the consenus of the websites, which are wrong. Richardson may very well be #1 overall I am not sure I understand your directionality are you saying Johnston should be picked before nine, or after nine and if so where. In one recent mock by the Athletic, he fell out of the first round altogether.

Updated 4/1/2023 - V1.2 - Darnell Wright OT to 23 ahead of Jack Campbell LB, based on TBD voting. Lukas Van Ness Iowa,Dalton Kincaid Utah,Michael Mayer Notre Dame removed from the BPA list to automatically be selected ahead of Wright. Bijan Robinson moved ahead of Zay Flowers. Some small reshuffling among 38-40 based on TBD polls and commentary. Spreadheet link reflects the current top 40 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing Lots of polling, lots of feedback given to help set up an entire draft board. This is course will be a fluid process. Here is a google sheet showing the information below: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing Some explanation. My estimate of the top 20 players are broken up into groups of top 10, 15, 20. Order does not matter too much to me. Among those top 20, there are 7 Players I would exclude from the Bills taking, 4 QBs and 3 defensive players. Branch, Porter and Breese. The other 13, I have identified as BPA and the Bills should pick them if they are available at 27. Picks 21 and 22 are two TEs I expect to go before the Bills pick, Dalton Kincaid and Mike Mayer. I think the Bills should prioritize those at 27, if they are available. After Pick 22, I begin with TBD favorite Jack Campbell, and then follow that with the next favorites from Fan voting. (interpretating fan results is as much art as science. Please provide feedback of any reordering, deletions or additions you think should be made to the top 40. Further note, the consensus in column three is based on the mean rankings of 10 internet draft sites. https://thedraftnetwork.com/ https://theathletic.com/4304645/2023/03/14/nfl-draft-2023-top-100-combine/ https://www.draftcountdown.com/ https://bleacherreport.com/nfl-draft https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/news https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2023 https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/ https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-big-board/ https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-prospects-2023-player-rankings-big-board/izwvqtdgymtvdw7qzx0q3hxp https://walterfootball.com/draft2023.php Thanks for your help. Here is the trade made during the Athletics most recent mock draft

Another Update. Joey Porter CB, Brian Branch CB/S Reminder you can change your choice at any time

If we draft Robinson, we cut hines and get back 4 mill of cap space ( I guess much of that shifts to robinson). But I am pretty certain drafting robinson, means cutting hines, and having the entire RB room under rookie contracts, which is the right place to be.

how do you spell it?

Not typically. I usually watch the draft. Don't usually look at anything ahead of time. This year I am bit obsessed

Starting out with 8 out 8 voters being fine with Robinson in the first round. I am shocked. Curious as to where this goes.

Another Update. Added Bijan Robinson. Reminder you can change your choice at any time

Done

RB is a different position. It is so devalued, that relying on grades and rankings do not seem to correpond to any realistic drafting position. I am including 5 RBs, whom might be interesting to posters to include as picks in the first three rounds. Interesting if people will find Bijan Robinson Interesting in the first round.

Qouted for Truth

3/26 Adding Dalton Kincaid TE, 3/26 Adding Michael Mayer TE 3/26 Adding Will McDonald IV Edge YOU CAN CHANGE YOUR VOTE IF THE NEW ADDITIONS CHANGE YOUR MIND I changed my vote from Hyatt to Dalton Kincaid, a newly added choice. I think Kincaid will be gone, but is likely the top player who could possibly be available at 27.

There is a near universal consensus that the second most important position after QB, is pass rusher. The Bills won't be using an early round pick on a QB. But it is possible that a pass rusher could come available at 27 or 59 that is just too good to pass up, despite other needs. Based on NFL.com grades, NFL.com estimates 38 DE's/Edge defenders will be selected in the draft. 22 of these players have grades suggesting they could be selected in the first four rounds. Based on PFF grades, PFF estimates 38 DE's/Edge defenders will be selected in the draft. 22 of these players have rankings suggesting they could be selected in the first four rounds. Only the top 20 are included in the poll (answer limit is 20) The are ranked by NFL.com grade, and the relative ranking within postion for PFF for DEs/Edge Rushers is shown in the right hand column.

Based on NFL.com grades, NFL.com estimates 18 Safties will be selected in the draft. 10 of these players have grades suggesting they could be selected in the first four rounds. Based on PFF grades, PFF estimates 14 Safties will be selected in the draft. 8 of these players have rankings suggesting they could be selected in the first four rounds. The are ranked by NFL.com grade, and the ranking within PFF for WR's is shown in the right hand column. If any of the top 3, Paris Johnson, Pete Skoronski, or Broderick Jones are available at the 27th, I presume Beane will be running over and through people to get to the podium. Depending on price, It might even be worth trading up for one of those three. None of the safties is projected to go in the first round by either NFL grade rank or PFF rank (Note Brian Branch is considered a CB by NFL.com so is not included here, although he seems to be projected as a safety.

Tweet seems pretty straightforward to mean the part that is bolded from your statement. The tweet itself says "total snaps". I am not sure why anyone would read it to mean "during their rookie year", since there is no mention of rookie or first year and the number do not seem to make sense for only rookie years.

Based on NFL.com grades, NFL.com estimates 15 tight ends will be selected in the draft. 10 of these players have grades suggesting they could be selected in the first four rounds. Based on PFF grades, PFF estimates 12 tight ends will be selected in the draft. 8 of these players have rankings suggesting they could be selected in the first four rounds. The are ranked by NFL.com grade, and the relative ranking within postion for PFF for Tight Ends shown in the right hand column.

NFL.com calls them guards. Avila can be chosen in this poll: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/246549-building-an-entire-draft-boardoffensive-guard-rankings/ Neither NFL.com or PFF ranks someone as likely to be drafted in the first four rounds. Attempting to first build the first three round board, so Patterson is not included

You say you understand setting up a board, but its clear you do not.

It seems clear that no consensus is likely to develop among TBD posters. Bills seem to be in an awkward situtation. At this point either trading up to 11-15, in an effort to get one of the top 3 OTs or any trade down scenario seems preferable to staying at 27. Sadly, the Bills can't really control this.

Very interesting to me, that only Jalen Carter captures the attention of people as a DT worth of #27.

Hopefully not.

Honestly this makes no sense to me. I don't think you answered the question anywhere of whether 10.7 million of cap space is worth more than a 2025 third round comp pick in any direct way.

Proving unpoplular opinions can also be asinine.