Chaos

I read Darnell Washington as Darnell Wright. a bunch of the bolded players will be in round 2. I don't think any of them make it 59, which is all that matters to the Bills right now.

https://walterfootball.com/ProspectMeetings/ByTeam Buffalo Bills Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC (COM) Adetomiwa Adebawore, Defensive End, Northwestern (COM) Julius Brents, Cornerback, Kansas State (COM) Ji'Ayir Brown, Safety, Penn State (COM) Nathaniel Dell^, Wide Receiver, Houston (PRI, WOR) Gervon Dexter, Defensive Tackle, Florida (PRI) Josh Downs, Wide Receiver, North Carolina (COM) Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College (COM) Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame (COM) Riley Moss, Cornerback, Iowa (COM) Jayden Reed, Wide Receiver, Michigan State (COM) Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas (COM) Jammie Robinson, Cornerback, Florida State (COM) Jaquelin Roy, Defensive Tackle, LSU (PRI) Luke Schoonmaker, Tight End, Michigan (COM) Juice Scruggs, Center, Penn State (VIR) Trenton Simpson, Linebacker, Clemson (COM) Nolan Smith, Outside Linebacker, Georgia (COM) Tyjae Spears, Running Back, Tulane (WOR) O'Cyrus Torrence, Offensive Guard, Florida (PRI) Tuli Tuipulotu, Defensive End, USC (COM) Darnell Washington, Tight End, Georgia (COM) Michael Wilson, Wide Receiver, Stanford (COM) Byron Young, Defensive End, Tennessee (COM) Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee - Update via twitter 4/1/2023 Players bolded are likely only available to the Bills at #27. (not likely available to them at 59) Didn't find this posted elsewhere. Please delete or merge if the topic already exists. Byron Young, Defensive End, Tennessee (COM)

Beane is following this thread carefully

Because the Bills don’t have enough curses.

For purposes of the Bills' board it doesn't matter if Richardson goes 1st or 26th. I also think he will go first though.

homophonicphobia not welcome here.

Updated 4/1/2023 - V1.2 - Darnell Wright OT to 23 ahead of Jack Campbell LB, based on TBD voting. Lukas Van Ness Iowa,Dalton Kincaid Utah,Michael Mayer Notre Dame removed from the BPA list to automatically be selected ahead of Wright. Bijan Robinson moved ahead of Zay Flowers. Some small reshuffling among 38-40 based on TBD polls and commentary. Spreadheet link reflects the current top 40 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing

The Bears, Browns and Bills play in the most extreme weather conditions in the NFL. Lets some up their 21st century Super Bowl success. Green Bay is cold too, but does not have the lake driven wind conditions.

I have come to believe there is zero chance Campbell lasts until 59.

BPA after the first two picks did not come close to any available WRs. I mentioned in a different post, that the Bills don't have much liklihood of finding a WR2 better than Davis, one of the 3 LBs who are expected to be first year starters in the NFL, and an offensive tackle that is likely to be better than Spencer Brown this year. Two of out three is going to have to do.

Fortunately the GM and Coach both found time and occassion in the off season to callout Allen for his aggressive running style. Because that is why the Bills can't get past the division round of playoff games.

I don’t think teams look at just the next spot on board. If you think you can get campbell and Bergeron by staying put But taking wright at 27 means there is no linebacker that you consider starting quality at 59, you need to consider that.

As good as the offense is we would benefit from a chain mover type. Could be Julian Edelman/Wes Welker slot guy type. Could be TE. Of the guys on the roster Knox is the best chance for that. I think it is too easy to separate scheme and talent. I think a Better oline allows Dorsey better scheme options. But even if the oline talent is the same I can hope Dorsey finds a way to mix it more. An earlier poster suggested that 15 yards per game could come out allen runs. Over the course of the season that adds up.

since everyone else is ranked lower than 27, you need to be prepared for the idea that all are gone. And you don't like 35, and lets say your next olineman is ranked 46 on your board. Do you take 35? or take a different position?

I agree with you. But there is a logical followup question "can I improve the line as much with pick 59 as I can with pick 27?" The consensus top 3 OTs (Skoronski, Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones) will be off the board at 27. If we had pick #11 and were discussing taking one of those three or an LB, it would be a no brainer. There is even a chance Darnell Wright is off the board at 27. So do we take the fifth best OT( Beregon or Mauch) or best guard Avila or Torrence, or take the top LB available and hope Beregon or Mauch are available at 59 (and further hope they are better than Spencer Brown).

There are passing plays where Allen has a clean pocket, and as a fan you have a near 100% certainity he is going to complete a good pass. I think this is because he has time to get through all his progressions without having to move from the pocket. I think all the recievers numbers go up if we improve the line.

I have voted for Wright, having said that I wanted to post this pro-Jack Campbell info. There seems to be this impression that he is this slow throwback player. I don't hink that is true at all. Of all the players invited to the combine, there are only five players who have an NFL grade of 6.2 or above, a PFF grade of 90 or above, have the prototypical height and weight for their positions, and run a 40 faster than the protoptype for their position. Campbell is one of those five. Campbells pass coverage grade was the highest in the country for linebackers in FBS programs. A 6 foot 5, it is possible Cambpell would be like an Edmunds except with football instincts and better abiltity to finish tackles.

The red zone stats are compelling that he is otherwise misused. I think part of the deep passing fetish in 2022 was related to the odd problems created by the ULD injury. The Bills are the strangest team. What are really going to improve in terms of offensive production in the passing game for the regular season. We were already very good there. Again shifting yards and TDs among the players doesn't change the team total. By way of analogy for anyone that has ever played strat-o-matic baseball, they have a "clutch" rating for the hitters, that just f's everything up in the later innings. But it reflects real life. We have good clutchiness on the offense already. Leading the league in 2 minute drills, and the continual 2021 playoff heroics after the defense let the teams back time and again. I think we need to move from good to great "clutchiness". I want Knox to be that guy. I want Allen to have that fraction of second longer to determine if his 65% expectation completion to gabe davis 25 yards upfield is better than a 95% completion expectation to Knox, just beyond the chains ( my probably imaginary view of the great tight ends). Rather than have to make a decision as his pocket is collapsing.

Do you think defenses fear him more than the average tight end? Do they adjust coverages for him? Between the 20's is he regular opened and overlooked when he would have been the best option? All real questions, not rhetorical.

You are 100% correct on production metrics when used. I think an important point is left out of the original post and the subsequent responses. Bills were second in the league in Receiving TDs and fourth in the league in Total TDs, and fourth in points. There is limited room for improvement in the team statistics. I am not sure Knox can greatly improve his reception or yardage count without it being reduced elsewhere. But there is some room for incremental improvement for the team. My original post titled "Optimizing Dawson Knox" certainly begs for discussion on production. But after reading the responses, I think my question would be better phrased "Can we use Knox to strike fear into the defense, and if so how do we do it?". Down the playoff stretch for years we saw it with Gronk and now we see it will Kelce. Team is in a tight spot, everyone in the stadium knows Gronk or Kelce is the first option, and it does not matter. They are getting open or making the contested catch, and at times its seems there is not a damn thing the defense can do about it. The answer might be Knox just is not that level of player. Doesn't make him a bad player. AJ Brown seemed to be that player for the Eagles. Bengals have the Chase/Higgins/ Boyd multi-weapon approach. Diggs can't quite put the team on his shoulders alone, like Kelce does. And I am not sure we are going to get him more support in clutch time from the WR room. My thought is if the additional help is already on the roster, it is Knox. How do we get him to the point where defences know its going to Knox, and there is not much the defenses can do about it?

Notwithstanding the Patriots success in an a cold weather market (I have never heard anyone say their dynasty was in any way due to a weather advantage). There really is no evidence the Super Bowl winners disproportionately come from teams without domes and a weather advantage. Chiefs (2), Rams, Bucs won the last four.

27. Lukas Van Ness - EDGE Iowa 59. Calijah Kancey - DT Pitt 91. Matthew Bergeron - OT Syracuse 130. Ricky Stromberg - OC Arkansas 137. Bryce Ford-Wheaton - WR West Virginia 205. Max Duggan - QB TCU The first three players in this list are shown being drafted dramatically later than the consensus for them. If each is as advertised they won't be available at those pick positions. If they are available it raises the question of why did they fall so far. None of those guys is exactly under the radar. But if they just slipped because everyone is drafting on need and ignoring BPA, all would be good picks at those spots. Stromberg looked sluggish and doughy to me when watching the combine on TV. Maybe not fair to assess him on that. But I liked him a lot going into the combine and not so much after watching. But I am certainly not an expert. Ford-Wheaton seems like a great athlete. He is probably most Athletic starting WR to only have 3 100 yard receiving games in three years as a starter. Seems a very worthwile project. But the lack of actual production is concerning. On the other end of the spectrum, there are a couple of guys Xander Hutchinson and Charlie Jones who are far athletic but had great production at the WR spot. For later round draft picks I would be curious if "great athletes" or "good football players (based on production) translate more often to NFL success. Duggan also has been in the spotlight, and underwhelms pundits as a potential NFL QB. If I was grabbing back up QB with the 205 pick, I would take Clayton Tune over Duggan.

LB seems to be a devaluated position by the NFL as a whole, but it also seems the Bills coaches, based on their frequent discussion of Edmunds' importance the last several years, value the LB position much higher than the NFL as whole. In either case based on college production and measurables, it is quite possible Jack Campbell is the best player available if he is there at 27. Separately NFL.com draft tracker grades Drew Sanders as the ninth highest graded player in the draft. Again it is quite possible the highest graded / BPA on the board at 27 is a linebacker. Since its also a position of need for the Bills Campbell, or Sanders would be logical choice, and not a reach based on BPA. It is similar to the dilemma some have with picking an RB at 27, no matter how good "because in the modern NFL" its not an important position. My personal bias is to first worry about protecting Allen with the Bills pick at #27. I also would be happy with certain WR's, LBs, and TE's with that pick. The Bills will have legitimate solid choices at 27. The added complexity is that the percieved drop off from the linebackers who will be available at 27, vs those likely available at 59 seems to be almost a cliff. (I think the same is true for the WR spot). But the drop off from 27 to 59 for the remaining OT's, interior lineman or TE's is a more gradual dropoff. Baring some really lucky trading or incredible draft luck, it is unlikely the Bills can land an instantly starting solid MLB and an instant starting WR2 that is an upgrade on Davis in the draft. I do think average luck, and using the first pick on LB or WR, gives the Bills the best chance to land three starters in the draft. Picking OT first (which is my preference) likely means adding a starter at OT, and one other starter for a total of 2.

That ok, I am not going to focus on the negatives.