Chaos

They also seriously considered having him rub some dirt on it, before doing push ups.

Hill coudn't beat compete with him in a 40 yard dash either.

We will have to agree to disagree on this. QB line moves that we can measure are things like Trubisky steps in for Allen. That is a dramatic move. I can't even think of a circumstance where there is a situation similar to changing among the top 3 or 4 QBs in the league. Is there an example you can point too?

These poll results certainly do not reflect public opinion at large. But I think identifying the head coach as the biggest gap, in this poll does correctly reflect the broader bettor opinion, which is what is reflected in the odds. I think the most common assesment is that Reid is HC1 in the NFL. McDermott is HC7 to 11. While Mahomes is regarded as QB1 and Allen is regarded as QB2. Bettors generally understand the importance of coaching. This is wrong. If I have a horse, the horse is that Allen is every bit as good as Mahomes.

Is your conclusion based on what you think, or your perception of what the public thinks? In either case, I would be interested on your estimate of how much the odds would shorten for each scenario. From =1500 to X and how much you think the Chiefs would lenghten from +500 to Y

This is just silly. https://www.milesplit.com/calc?time=9.784&event=100m Lyles best 60m time converts to just under 4 seconds flat.

Warning - There will be math. Chiefs keep winning the Super Bowl. Bills keep bowing out in the first round of playoffs. It seems the Chiefs have been better at something or some things, than they Bills are. Currently the Chiefs are given +500 odds to win the Super Bowl. This translates to 16.67% for those not familar with betting moneylines> The Bills are given +1500 odds to win the Super Bowl. 6.25%. In real life, no one can simply mathmatcally allocate the responsibilty for winning the championship to on component of a team. That is why this is a thought exercise. Everyone gets to use their own brain, and their own judgement. The question being asked in the polling questions are "if you could swap this ONE element of the Chiefs and the Bills, how much would the odds change for better or worse for the Bills" . I am not asking for anyone's opinion on how much a line "should" move. It really is asking your opinion on how much it "would" move. Meaning you have to assess the publics response to the hypothetical change (note- none of these swaps are happening, once again it is a thought exercise) The table below shols current odds to put in perspective public opinion on the Bills current chances. Below the table, is a list of the swap choices the polling questions will ask. Swap Head Coaches Swap QBs Swap Rosters, other than QBs

Its not reading too much into things, to conclude the Bills defense is good enough to win more playoff games than the team does.

We do. The problem is that in playoff games the defense lets other teams score more.

If Mahomes was on the Bills, McDermott would have focused the last couple of years on getting him to stop throwing side arm. If Allen was on the Chiefs Reid would have scored the exact same number TDs from inside the 10. The common denominator is Reid is far better than McDermott. Anyone with an average or higher IQ and who is not legally blind and has watched the games knows this is true.

I am 100 percent confident of Allen and Mahomes were swapped, Mahomes does not have a single Super Bowl win

Mahomes is not better than Allen.

I think there is a real decision to be made on what is his best self. If he is greenlighted to run at will, he is the most potent offensive weapon in the NFL, by a considerable margin. If he is reduced to be "only a passer", he is a top 5 QB, which is really nice too. We have had the elements in place to win possibly win the super bowl each year if the NFL's best offensive weapon at QB. I am not sure we have the roster/coaching in place to win with "just" a top five QB.

How many passing yards to you think Allen will throw for this season? Last season he threw for 4306.

but but but addition by subtraction. personally i htink the Bills to win the AFC East at +180 is a great betting opportunity.

Pretty big distinction. Your new point may be valid. I would be lying if I could say I remember preseason games from the super bowl run. One post in this thread said their recollection was that the starting offense typically came out, scored in 48 seconds, and then we called it a day. So I am not sure if you recollection that the preseason games was ALL bad play like yesterday is true.

Did not realize the Bills had slipped all the way from +125 to +180. Pretty huge move since the betting opened.

Haven't seen a single post in the thread concerned with losing. Lots of posts concerned with the level of play they saw. Expectations were low for everyone. And for some the results were still below the expectations.

"meaningful". Starting at the 25 (even the 19) is not particularly meaningful compared to the 30. For example Jags had a 73 yard and a 45 yard kickoff return against the Chiefs. Those are meaningful distadvantages to the kicking team. The downside seems so much worse than the upside.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2024/08/11/nfl-power-rankings-chiefs-49ers-2024-super-bowl-odds/74745147007/ Surprised, the Bills are ranked meaninfully behind the Ravens. Bengals, Bills, Texans are all about the same in the rankings. +1500 on the Bills seems like a worthwhile bet too me.

I won't be surprised if they continue the McGovern experiment. Its important to the Bill's head coach that he be thought of as clever and innovative.

Did not playing solidify his roster spot?

While watching several pre-season games I did not notice any dynamic kick off returns that were stopped short of the 25 (with the exception a penalty). As the kicking team, I can't imagine why I would ever put the ball in play with these rules. I would plan to always have the offense start on the 30. I feel like I am missing something. What meaningful advantages does the kicking team have by putting the ball in play?

Did we get any clues about which WRs will be on the 53 for game 1?

Very similar to some of our playoff game plans.