Chaos

I would put Joe Tippman in that list. I would probably take Downs out of list. If Tippmann and Begeron were both available, I would rank Tippman higher. In terms of guessing the Bills pick, I think between Tippman and Begeron, I would expect Tippman, 1) I think he is the better prospect and 2) the public commitment to Spencer Brown. 3) Morse has a much higher injury risk than the average NFL player, and Tippman would seem to be better than any option at that spot. I would expect Tippman to beat out Ryan Bates for the starting guard spot.

I think if you lumped the TEs and WRs into a category called "pass catchers" he sort of jumps off the page as the best help for the Bills. Two weeks before the draft, I would not have thought he had a chance to fall to the Bills, but about a week before the draft, he started sliding in a lot of the better internet draft algorithms. This seemed to be based on medical problem rumors. So I thought there was a chance he would slide.

I expect to update this later before the second round of the draft starts. But with where we stand right now, I feel very in the dark about where the Bills go next. I will commit before the second round starts though. A side note - this is the first draft in a while that Joe Shoen did not at least help Beane prepare for. Some of the past "drafting traits" may have moved to NY. Offense and being an older player were both outside the Beane era mold. I am not sure how to interpret the first round selection. I felt strongly the Bills would go offense in the first round. To me, Kincaid was not just the player that will help the Bills the most on offense in 2023, but was also the BPA at the selection. But a string of very good defensive players went in the rest of the round after the Bills took Kincaid which indicates a committment to offense. Scenario 1 - Bills are committed to this draft being about optimizing the offense. The next logical step in this scenario is improving the oline. One thing I took away from the first round selection is that while Dawson Knox is a very good and highly compensated player, the Bills did not worry about hurting his feelings with the pick. I don't think they care anymore about Spencer Brown's, Mitch Morse's or Ryan Bates feelings. Based on this line of thinking there seems to be a 1A and a 1B plan. IA is standing pat, and hoping Matthew Beregon, Joe Tipmann, or John Michael Schmitz falls to that position. I think there is a real possibility one of them could be there. It seems unlikely the top IOL players 0'Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila will be there at that pick. This brings us to the 1B plan. Maybe the Bills are happy to get 2 quality picks in the draft, and are willing to use further draft capital, or future draft capital to move up for Torrence or Avila. The Bills are a pretty complete team now, and I am not sure we need to be stocking the practice roster. So I think this is a viable option. Our second and third rounder, probably allows you to get one of Torrence and Avila. Scenario 2 - The Bills took Kincaid because he was BPA, and that is the modus operandi for the draft. I don't think they expected Kincaid to fall (although a number of internet simulation programs in the last week leading up to the draft did have Kincaid falling). I think other players fans are high on will also fall unexpectedly to 59. In that case I would expect the Bills to be neutral on offense vs defense and pick the BPA. I think this group will include some of the players in this big group: WRs - Jalin Hyatt, Jonathan Mingo. CB's Julius Brent, DJ Turner and Tryique Stevenson Other Defense, Trenton Simpson, Antonio Johnson, Tuli Tuipulotu, Derrick Hall, and Olinemen Joe Tippman, Matthew Bergeron, and Cody Mauch. At this point it is tough to separate what I would want, from what I think the Bills would do. But if all of those players are available, and the Bills are neutral on BPA, I think it would be one of the cornerbacks. The 2B plan is to trade up to take Joey Porter who seems to be the true BPA going into the second round. If he gets past Pittsburg, a 2&3 would might allow us to get Porter. This would be a home run. Scenario 3 - A shift to defensive need - I think there is a fan consensus the Bills current hole on defense at LB and future hole on the Dline with the expected departure of Ed Oliver next year. In this case, I would expect the Bills to stand pat and take Drew Sanders or Trent Simpson, in that order, if they fall to 59. Otherwise it would likely be whoever they think is the best defensive interior lineman fit for the Bills. Keeanu Benton sticks out as the best of the the interior limeman who has a good chance of being available at that pick. Overall, I think the Bills will be best served for 2023 and beyond by scenario 1.

Not really. Big part of getting it right was being lucky. But sometimes one gets lucky. That will be harder. But I hope to have time between work and the draft to put a post up with that guess. But I am tempted to stay 1 for 1. 😃

and the bunched panties award goes to our very own beta :

I usually am. 😉

Well, I projected Kincaid as the Bills first pick. And Kincaid was the Bills first pick.

Kincaid broke the Bills mold of drafting youngsters. Kincaid is 23.5 years old.

I projected this last Saturday. Most everyone disagreed.

this aged well.

This aged well.

I am guessing porter

the much maligned trade up.

exciting stuff.

Through the predraft season, the guy who was consistently mocked higher than where we stand now is Joey Porter.

If Kindcaid and Meyer go off the board with the next two picks, I will be sad.

They have spent the last several years of their lives earning their college coaches millions, now it is there turn. Perfectly fair sentiment.

post addison on the fly

And Brian Branch

feel bad for Zay Smith having Lamar as his QB. Its not a good match.

PFFs on the fly assessement

Flowers worst dressed (and there is serious competition for that)

you can do things like trade 27 and 91 for 23 and 145.

he towers over our FA signed WR

Hyatt is 176 pounds.