Chaos

Horton this early is surprise to me.

Andrews is meh, imo. Landed in a good spot though to be developed.

I don't see the point in disputing the actual fact I posted.

that oops seahawks. confused by the emblem.

Eagles trading up again. They are breaking my heart.

you are correct. But Nick S. was not playing against top competetion either. And it is impossible to be beat zero sacks, and zero penatlies (senior year). Torrence did not have the greatest combine.But his college production is unassailable.

Torrence played C, LG, RG, and RT at various times in college. During his college career he gave up zero sacks.

When was the last time someone fell as far out of favor as Dawand Jones has?

When was the last time someone fell as far out of favor as Dawand Jones has?

Based on college production, Torrence was quite a bit better against much stronger competetion. Why is this your hot take? Do the Eagles have 40% of the draft picks?

they are going to let the Eagles have their choice of Ringo or Jones. sigh.

two suprises to me so far

I actually did not intend to include Saldiveri on Trice on the original list because I did not expect them to be avaiable when the Bills pick.

One down already.

Saints did not give up much to get their choice of remaining players today. interesting suggesting a run on remaining QBs. I doubt that. I think the Eagles are there for Jones or Ringo

Goodell not slurring his words today.

Saints , Raiders and Eagles wheeling and dealing. Eagles gave up a third from next year to move up.

How much time to the teams get to pick today.

It is good to see over 90% of responders to this poll have a clue.

An organized list from 1-65 is actually the opposite of Chaos

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/joey-fisher/32004649-5343-7779-ed1f-1637254463d0 https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-draft-watch-nmu-offensive-tackle-jake-witt/ar-AA1aro7c I like underdog stories. I like both of these guys chances to have an impact in the NFL. I expect Fisher to go in the next round. I would not be unhappy with him going to the Bills. I haven't seen these names appear often on the board (actually I haven't seen them at all) add your possible shockers, or even add picks that shock you.

The deeper into the draft we go, any simulations/mocks/projections/guesses become more and more just guesses. I have had reasonable success in simulating the first three rounds. I have given some analysis explaining each of those picks. For this round I am going to give my projected Bills board for the next 65 picks with an explanation of the methodology I have been using. My official guess is "the highest ranked player on the board available when the Bills pick at 137". However player availability and board rank are independent variables, and based on my estimate of who will be available, I expect the player will come from among this smaller list: DT Karl Brooks DT Moro Ojomo WR Charlie Jones DT Cameron Young .Here is a link to a google sheet, showing the whole list of 65 in this format. In rounds 1 and 2 I did a very detailed analysis of likely availabilty player by player. In this round, I grouped the players into tiers (because I got lazy) for evaluating likely availability. In all rounds I calculated a metric I call 2023 impact potential, and then calculate the RANK of this metric. So in this round, the max rank was 65, because I evaluated 65 players. If a player scored at the top of the list for each of my values rolling into "2023 impact potential" they would have scored 65. Of the remaining players 2 guys jump off the page as having the greatest potential to have impact on 2023, D. Jones, and Kelee Ringo. This seems to pass any eye test as logical as well. What I think is a bit different about my 2023 Impact potential calculation is that it completely disregards development potential and the future. The top teams have no interest in "developing" talent in my estimation. The Bills are one of the top teams that as moved past that point. For example, Someone will draft Andrew Vorhees in this draft, maybe in the fourth round. Due to his ACL injury, I rank him as zero potential to impact 2023, and as such he is at the bottom of my list of these 65 players. D. Jones could be a total bust. He also could be could be the answer to the Spencer Brown problem at RT, the Bills current weakest link on offense. I personally would be rolling the dice and trying to trade with the bears to get him. But I learned from someone yesterday, Beane is boycotting the Big Ten. So probably not likely. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs66Nk1eJ9ybB-_ZV0VdEovmj5EffjrjH4z3hYXu_lM/edit?usp=sharing

https://collegefootballnews.com/nfl-draft/dorian-williams-tulane-2023-nfl-draft-profile

Steeler's may have just gotten the steal of the draft. He is one of one physcially among pass catchers.

Its mainly because statistically those later picks don't amount to much. There are of course the obvious antecdotes of success from those picks and even a HOF QB who was an UDFA. But those are exceptions not the rule. Jones level of production in college to NFL success. I don't think he could exceed at the level without having a real work ethic.